Disqus - Latest Comments for KillinMe

Re: May 5 (and a Long Term View Update)

Gumbo YaYa — Mon, 09 May 2011 17:11:04 -0000

binve does it again! Right there with you my man. The only thought is Z of (W) could morph into a multi-stage correction going higher for the short-intermediate term.

Re: April 1

Gumbo YaYa — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 18:46:28 -0000

I was looking over the big picture again, and since this is NOT an impulsive bull market up from Mar '09, I am starting to think we are in a 20 year expanding triangle, similar to 1964-1975 but in a larger scale/degree.

That would mean we slightly break the 2007 highs just to return to a vicious bear market breaking the Mar '09 lows before resuming a bullish trend.

Summary:
2000-2003 [A] of {IV}
2003-2007 [B] of {IV}
2007-2009 [C] of {IV}
2009-present [D] of {IV}
2012(est)-2015(est) [E] of {IV}

P.S. As we return to the bullish trend in 2016, keep in mind the wild swings a [1][2] wave can dish out, so it won't feel very bullish for awhile, similar to the aftermath of the Great Depression.

Re: A Grand Count

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:35:14 -0000

Yup! Right on board. I think we see one more rally to new rally highs before this bullish trend has a significant correction.

Re: Corrective

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 20:45:37 -0000

You are correct-ive sir about your analysis! By 'correct' I mean in line with my count. :-)

As an alt count short term count, this could be wave 4 of 5 of A. of (Y).

Re: Corrective

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 21:11:54 -0000

I commend the vision for the 2nd count. I have found Elliott Wavers forcing impulsive counts for this whole rally. We are stuck in a fractional WXY pattern since 2000. Well done, sir, well done.

Re: Secular Bear Market Projection in Historical Context

Gumbo YaYa — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 21:34:23 -0000

Binve, I like your analysis. The one thing I could see differing some is the {Y} leg down would just be an A wave of {Y} with B, C to follow (similar to A of {W} - 2000-2003) prolonging the completion of {Y} for many more years.

Re: Weekly

Gumbo YaYa — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 12:03:34 -0000

Love your count on this. This is what I am tracking on as well. I think we are clearly in an (X) wave in the larger degree. I could easily see another 10-15 years of something similar to 1999-2008.

Re: Jacks

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 09:21:58 -0000

binve, after all of the [i][ii], (i)(ii), i. ii. calls since Mar '09, I no longer trust these counts until more evidence has shown itself. This is just pure speculation at this point IMO.

Re: The Large Count

Gumbo YaYa — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 12:04:54 -0000

Don't see that being C. of (Y) simply due to the proportions of (Y) to (W) if that was the case. Take a look at the 5yr weekly chart & tell me if you still feel that is a strong possibility.

If this rally starting Mar '09 is the [X] wave with [W] being 2000-Mar '09, then we should have another leg to this rally after a pull back.

Re: The Large Count

Gumbo YaYa — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 10:53:57 -0000

As I look over the charts (indicies & individual stocks), I feel your X of (X) is the top of WXYXZ = (W). Apr '10 down should be A. of (X) & the rally from Jul '10 to present should be B. of (X) as the primary count. Alternatively, Apr '10-Jul '10 could be (X) and the rally could be A. of (Y).

Re: The Large Count

Gumbo YaYa — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 08:56:04 -0000

That's the same count I am tracking on as well. Great minds...

Re: Closest thing to a count that I have

Gumbo YaYa — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 19:02:26 -0000

The freight train will hit the wall soon. I just think it may be further down the road than tomorrow like I have been thinking this whole time. I had not factored in the huge forces of manipulation at work by the Fed & world banks.

Re: Closest thing to a count that I have

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 21:07:20 -0000

I am going on record...the more I think about this cycle, the more convinced I am we are in wave [X] of {X}. 2000-2008 = '00-'03 [A], '03-'07 [B], '07-'09 [C] = {W} so we are in [X] of [W][X][Y] = {X}. If this is true, I expect a solid (C) move down to complete (A)(B)(C) of [X] soon with a resumption of the bullish trend.

4 reasons: 1. NDX is making new highs (this is not a [2] wave). DOW is about to. 2. Mar '09 to present is NOT a 5 wave impulse up. It is a complex correction albeit straight up. 3. As a proportion to the trend starting in 1932, we have plenty of time to kill in a sideways trend similar to '66-'76 but much longer. 4. TIPS & gold are signaling inflation all day long, not deflation.

P.S. And the VIX is about to bust higher out of a wedge pattern sending the market down & the VIX higher. That will complete the 3 wave correction higher in the VIX allowing the market to resume it's (A)(B)(C) of [Y] leg higher.

Re: The Big Picture: Technicals and Macro

Gumbo YaYa — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 10:29:17 -0000

I love it. What a great theory with TONS of supporting evidence. I like the theory of the large LD as well. I was wrestling with the short duration of 1., and the waves just don't match.

I am about to dump EWI since they are always making forecasts in conflict with the rules. It's amazing. I never seem to agree with them, and that has worked to my advantage.

To add to your thought process, why isn't the Mar '09 lows {C} of IV instead of 1. of {C}? The proportions work & so does the wave count ('00-'03 3 waves =[A], '03-'07 rally 3 waves = [B] & '07-'09 5 waves down = [C]). Maybe we churn sideways for decades like in the '60's-early '80's with this being [X] of [W][X][Y] of IV.

I think it is a very difficult time to make a forecast since I see us at a junction point & at the end of a sequence somewhat. The new sequence has yet to clearly define itself.

Re: Space Madness

Gumbo YaYa — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 21:19:13 -0000

Feeling the same. Went long some IWM Friday as a hedge. I am thinking we have some more upside to shake out before turning down.

Keep in mind, and I learned this lesson in the first down turn, things are not going straight down even in P3. There will be months of bullishness punctuating the down turn, so just go with the flow.

Cheers!

Re: RUT UPDATE

Gumbo YaYa — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 08:27:51 -0000

Well said. I agree. I am long & don't feel this sell off today was all that damaging in the intermediate term. We certainly need a reset. I saw a sentiment reading somewhere showing 9% bulls towards the end of this week. Need a rally.

Re: RUT UPDATE

Gumbo YaYa — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 21:04:00 -0000

I am tracking on your alt purple count, so today, where as very much a down day, did not deter the short term rally expectations I have. That said, it needs to rally next week.

Re: Dollar Fifth Wave On Deck?

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 20:10:55 -0000

Same here about the leading diagonal as well. May felt more like an hard ABC down IMO. I am with you on your DX count with an extended 5th wave, which is more consistent with currencies anyway.

Re: Dollar Fifth Wave On Deck?

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 19:03:22 -0000

With (2) of the dollar falling sharply, wouldn't that support a rally in equities making for its final leg higher?

Re: DAX - Gap Up on Deck?

Gumbo YaYa — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 21:43:29 -0000

How do you factor in that glaring divergence on the RSI for the DAX into such a bearish count? Seems like that would point more to the ABC alt count more than the primary bearish count to me. Thoughts?

Re: Crazy Count Idea

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 15:30:38 -0000

Ha! What a visual.

Re: Crazy Count Idea

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 14:58:16 -0000

Everyone is still on Memorial Day vacation it seems. Volume is non-existent & price is lethargic. I think we have some more upside to come in the short term.

Re: Crazy Count Idea

Gumbo YaYa — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 12:16:53 -0000

I wouldn't call it as crazy as you think it may be...that's the EXACT count off the Feb 8 lows...and we know how that turned out.

Re: RUT EOD

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 27 May 2010 22:41:32 -0000

Observation: Inverted H&S on the 60m chart has a target of 697, which is 78% of [i] if this is the start of P3 at all. Tooth fairy count may have more of a chance than the name eludes too. ;-)

Re: RUT EOD

Gumbo YaYa — Thu, 27 May 2010 22:37:32 -0000

Question about your ZOOM count in green b.: I thought [E] could break the line in a triangle but could NOT exceed [C]. Do I understand that correctly?