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Re: Can Apple Double iPhone Sales Goal in 2008?

Zoltar — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:50:48 -0000

Penetration is calculated in function of a contained known population. For instance, if you know a country has got 10 million people and the networks show they have 12 million cellphones active, then there's 120% penetration. It means there are many people who have more than one cellphone. Of course, you've got to realize that many babies don't have any so there's your truth. But it's a ballpark figure for orientation.

So to calculate iPhone penetration you must first define "penetration where?". If it is penetration in the US, then you should first realize that only one network has got the device. Too bad you say and you're right. So there would definitely two penetration numbers to assess: % for AT&T and % for US total subscriber base. Why not for the total population? You could calculate that too but it's worthless because these figures are only interesting in terms of competitive comparison, i.e. iPhone vs. BBerry vs. WM etc. For a country it only makes sense the total number of cellphones. Although one could calculate the penetration of smartphones...

Re: Can Apple Double iPhone Sales Goal in 2008?

Zoltar — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:40:36 -0000

You're so skeptical. You even seem angry!

You can't calculate market penetration of a product that is sold in 4 markets taking into account global mobile sales! And what does it matter that (someone has estimated that) 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold globally when many people have more than one, each from different networks?

The 1.1 billion is the sum of total subscriber base collected until now adding from all the networks that signed up with Apple but it still doesn't express the market potential for the iPhone because there are many people who change network for the iPhone and there are also many people who never bought a smartphone that will now buy an iPhone without even think they're buying one, much less of a computer for that matter.

And although Apple won't ever be ready to forgo their $200/iPhone profit, I just bet that they have let all those networks sign up with them on the condition that they heavily subsidize and promote the device. Which will stand to their benefit too!

By the way, since the iPhones are so expensive, how the heck do you think that Microsoft sells 26 million windows mobile OS when WM smartphones sell for upwards of €300, usually around €500?!

We'll see who's right next week. It's not long now.

Re: Can Apple Double iPhone Sales Goal in 2008?

Crazylegslaz — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 13:36:54 -0000

All your numbers are way off. 2007 global mobile phone sales were about 1.1 billion. Apple sold about 5.1 million iphones from launch through March 31 and perhaps another 1 to 1.5 million to date. So based on the 2007 figure, total mkt penetration is only 0.5%, not close to 3%. A 3% run rate on 2008 total mkt figures would be roughly 36 million phones (based on 1.2B mobiles sold, or roughly 10% more than 2007) or more than triple their estimate. I don't think anyone, no matter how iPhonatical one is, believes they'll sell 36 million in 2008. They might do it in 2009, but even that seems like a stretch. Regardless, factual information would be appreciated.

In response to Zoltar, you have to smoking some great grass to come up with 50 - 100 million iphones in 2009. Please send some of that stuff my way! As an investor I sure hope so, but the thing you completely miss is that an iPod is far less of an investment than the iPhone, so sales comparisons are ridiculous. If you had to buy a two year data plan for each iPod, you think sales would be so high? No way. Again the addressable mkt for iPhone is actually smaller than everyone believes until they bring that price down. It will be extremely hard given Apple doesn't like to cheapen its brand and the very advanced bill of materials (accelerometer, large touch screen, 3G chip, Edge/GPRS chip, Wifi chip, etc).