DISQUS

You're a man of good taste, it shows.

ConstableOdo, never thought of "following the money" when things apparently don't make sense? WS is evidently being manipulated by a setup of Apple enemies whom, in the process of targeting AAPL, make a boatload of money. They own the media clowns so it's easily done. See if it now makes sense.

IMHO 20 million easy! You'll even laugh when you look back. Plus I bet they're adding China in August as they announce the next 20 countries.

And pre-market is now at 164.32!

I guess the Oppenheimer statement of amazing product transition before end of September was enough for the Apple following and greedy investors alike to recuperate their trust in "risky" AAPL.

Many shorts and Apple enemies are crying right now, just look at them insisting on that issue of Steve Jobs' health! They just won't give up!

I am now convinced AAPL will climb steadily 'til at least 190 non-stop.

Apple will be adding 20 more countries in August 22nd and I'm sure there will be a China announcement in August, probably by then. So non-stop 'til 190 now. When they announce the new "product transition" which is expected to be revolutionary (betting it's a MacBook Touch, no keyboard), then the stock will just fly past 200 to land in uncharted territory!

Here's to you, Afraid To Trade Corey, may your business flourish!

I believe (knock on wood) it's going to go down further on Monday before the ER, it'll be the sell-on-the-news syndrome (how stupid is that rule?).

On Tuesday the market will struggle to understand the reality of Apple but the infested Media will try to knock it down big way, all pointing to whatever less positive aspect they found or something that someone made up, a rumor even.

I don't know - since Apple was 199 someone must have gotten worried, probably on account of industry intelligence (aka secrets robbed) stating that Apple was coming out with a revolutionary major platform that would shake the entire computer industry and put installed interests at peril.

So AAPL started to be attacked and just about ANY piece of news - which with Apple tend to be all good - became opportunity for negative media commentary and another AAPL plunge or at least smaller than natural gains only to drop them a couple of days forward.

- The wolf under the sheep skin / the Spin Meisters -
The latest strategy seems to be to write an awful lot of concerns and worries about the company, how the market is in recession and expensive goods are going to take a hit, etc. and then to still provide big numbers like Shaw Wu's target of $200. I don't find it huge - to be true AAPL should by now be @ ~ $250, starting its climb to $300 - but it is huge for a document that is full of negative spins and cautionary remarks. Sorry, I didn't read the document myself but I grasped that much.

That will be the last strategy - seeing that Apple's numbers are irrefutable, "they" will try to fill the media up with writings that naturally display Apple's big numbers and give them negative spin in a hipnotizing trance that will simply convey the message that Apple's numbers are huge still the outlook is negative or in sum that white is black and black is white.

I think we will arrive at the end of the year thinking that 2008 was a year to be forgotten. But if only there would be the promise that 2009 would be better...

Mind you, this is for Apple only - how come one trick pony RIMM - and that's one with a really shaky future! - does not behave similarly and, on the contrary, tiny things makes the stock jump? Just an example.

Zack, thanks for the excellent articles.

Given the probable sell on the news scenario and given that 165 was a support for AAPL, what do you figure is the next support down the line? Can you say something about that?
Thanks a bunch
Signs - a nervous investor

Here in Portugal it's 250MB FOR ALL PLANS!

Although the plans aren't that much expensive, configuring the plans with the same MB of data and different minutes/sms makes me realize:

- Vodafone doesn't get the iPhone as a handheld computer that does phone but thinks it's a cellphone with Internet;

- Vodafone is resisting the wave of change from voice centric networks to data/IP centric networks;

- This puts the iPhone user in a straitjacket forcing him to always walk on egg shells and be extremely careful with the mileage and to be strapped at home or to a Wi-Fi hotspot to download anything significant [since the only cell carrier that has Wi-Fi hotspots doesn't carry the iPhone and Vodafone doesn't, there you have it]. And it stops the user from using Google Maps and avoid net accessing apps from the App Store;

- Vodafone is greedy, it knows it'll be easy for any user - more so the ones that are more computing challenged - to spend another at least 250MB which will make for an extra €15/month or more!

All in all, I'm sure this was NOT what Steve Jobs had in mind for the iPhone.

The iPhone concept and its success comes from having an internet accessing computer in one's pocket/hand - having it on a 250MB/month straitjacket is not what it's meant for!

I see so many people stating that LONG is the way to go, it's like they're in denial OR they don't understand that a stock price is relative to what somebody is willing to pay and another somebody is willing to sell for - it might be related to the company's fundamentals but at the end of the day, literally, it is what the market offers for it.

And this market is offering less and less comparatively to what the AAPL stock is worth and its potential.

The constant low volumes demonstrate that people are pulling out of the market and going elsewhere presumably to where it's safer whether it's Gold, Oil or plain cash.

Mind you, if the dollar crashes due to a war over oil like Iran or something, having a stack of USD at the "ailing" Bank could be worth zilch.

In sum, AAPL has indeed been climbing up steadily but while doing it against the tide it's been ending up time and time again in the similar or lower absolute position.

If the market crashes - and it only takes a scare - AAPL will go down as all the other stocks no matter how amazing this company may be, that is easy to see. And it is amazing.

And its potential is to be a company double or triple its current size in a couple of years time.

So I believe the warning goes mainly for AAPL LONGs that have an unfailing faith in the company and state they will stay with it no matter what. It is for the people who say that when the price goes down, it's time to buy. It is for people who tell stories about how since the year 200x they have always add AAPL positions to their portfolio.

The warning is: please don't be in denial, please wise up, please be on alert.

And by the way - the Jan-Feb "market correction" in which AAPL dropped from 199 to 117 - was it not a mini-crash? Was it not a warning for something bigger that *may* be coming ahead?!

You don't really get it do you? You talk about profit and buying low yet you state "I've been floundering on that". Right. When has it hit the bottom, is the million dollar question! Nobody knows. And nobody knows how low a crash can go. So all this rambling about is really useless to say the least.

Here we go again!

Is that group therapy? :D

Exactly, you nailed it my friend. While Zach has a point that anal-ysts affect our wealth and general well-being, the bottom line is that it's always up to us, the individual reader, to be responsible for our actions, of which reading is included.

Sadly, it will be many years until responsible readers happens on Planet Earth - maybe a deluge is needed to make that happen - so I'm afraid Zach takes the cake for the advise on the assertive action we need to put out. And by "we" I mean someone else other than me with programming skills.

From my part, I post a lot telling anal-yst parroting article writers [to go take it up where they most enjoy] how wrong they and their paying friends are using the politically incorrect but extremely adequate wording "anal-ysts" . I urge everybody to do this. I believe it is up to the anal-ysts to deserve better treatment from their audience.

And very funny picture there, I just started laughing ahahahahah

By the way, good blog Zach!

Maybe Apple now pays? Maybe nobody is paying for the moment? Wait until he changes his tune, then you'll know someone has reached him on his sweetspot

@Zach Bass, love your articles. However, I ask - the timing you are proposing is not very clear. You're saying this week (June 30-July3rd) the market is presumably going to go down and that next week July7-11 or 14-18 AAPL will go up even against the current market downtrend?

I think a market analysis and prediction is due so that we can then can put AAPL on top and see if there's still room for a significant climb.

You see, AAPL has been swimming against the tide for months now and, if it weren't for that, it would now be @210 or more. But the tide is against it and it is intense! So one has to take that strongly into account...


@ Tom Sawyer, those people are right, the iPhone is not a smartphone, it is an intelligent phone for intelligent people. Smartphones, more so if we're talking about Windows Mobile (I own two), are more like dumb phones for people who like problems and ugliness in their lives. To each his own!


@Paul G - I agree 15 million won't be enough. However, since China doesn't have 3G, maybe that's where the 2 million EDGE iPhones ordered are going. Having said that I wonder then what's going to be supplied to India?!

There are so many reasons for the number to be bigger:
- people who jump from other networks for the iPhone;
- developing countries where growth is explosive AND people consider their cellphone as important as Americans consider their cars;
- explosive growth of cellphone users moving to the smartphone platform
- ...

Penetration is calculated in function of a contained known population. For instance, if you know a country has got 10 million people and the networks show they have 12 million cellphones active, then there's 120% penetration. It means there are many people who have more than one cellphone. Of course, you've got to realize that many babies don't have any so there's your truth. But it's a ballpark figure for orientation.

So to calculate iPhone penetration you must first define "penetration where?". If it is penetration in the US, then you should first realize that only one network has got the device. Too bad you say and you're right. So there would definitely two penetration numbers to assess: % for AT&T and % for US total subscriber base. Why not for the total population? You could calculate that too but it's worthless because these figures are only interesting in terms of competitive comparison, i.e. iPhone vs. BBerry vs. WM etc. For a country it only makes sense the total number of cellphones. Although one could calculate the penetration of smartphones...

You're so skeptical. You even seem angry!

You can't calculate market penetration of a product that is sold in 4 markets taking into account global mobile sales! And what does it matter that (someone has estimated that) 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold globally when many people have more than one, each from different networks?

The 1.1 billion is the sum of total subscriber base collected until now adding from all the networks that signed up with Apple but it still doesn't express the market potential for the iPhone because there are many people who change network for the iPhone and there are also many people who never bought a smartphone that will now buy an iPhone without even think they're buying one, much less of a computer for that matter.

And although Apple won't ever be ready to forgo their $200/iPhone profit, I just bet that they have let all those networks sign up with them on the condition that they heavily subsidize and promote the device. Which will stand to their benefit too!

By the way, since the iPhones are so expensive, how the heck do you think that Microsoft sells 26 million windows mobile OS when WM smartphones sell for upwards of €300, usually around €500?!

We'll see who's right next week. It's not long now.

You're right, I fully agree. More so because Apple will surely add China and Russia to the list. Contrary to what most say, Japan is not that interesting for Apple but hey, what the heck, add them in too. That gives a total subscriber market of 1.1 billion. If you factor that 20% of it are smartphones then you get 220 million. And I figure that Steve Jobs won't be happy until he reaches 50% of the smartphone market so I really see a potential for some 100 million in the short term.

All in all I wouldn't be surprised at all to see sales of between 50 to 100 million iPhones in one year's time. One reason to be really relaxed about this is that the iPhone is not a phone but a handheld computer with phone functionality and that means that many will buy it because of that computing capability. Think about it, the EeePC costs $300, the iPhone can cost a lot less (subsidized) and be a lot more functional and that's not counting for elegance etc. The EeePC has been in the top tier of Christmas wish lists so they say... that might change now.

So this is the vision. I am guessing that Steve Jobs this time gave up on any shared revenue deals etc and imposed only one condition to carriers to get the iPhone deal: heavy promotion and subsidizing. There's talk the the iPhone will be available for €99 in Europe by July. That'll be a steal for such a computing device.

And yes, you're right when you mention a kind of "ladies model", fewer functions and smaller that will be easier to price lower too.

Steve Jobs needs to quickly achieve a powerful position in this market and 100 million iPhones in one year isn't that crazy for a company that already sells more than 10 million iPods per month! The iPhone will easily out rank the iPod in terms of sales because, while the iPod is a pleasure gadget and appeals to a younger demographic range, the iPhone is a serious work tool and it appeals equally to all demographics!

It's possible that Steve Jobs announces an oversized iPhone/mini-tablet. And come September, it's possible that Apple launches a full Mac OS X tablet. It's been rumored, at least.

Because what Steve Jobs will be announcing next week is the start of a new handheld computing revolution, as important as the first Macintosh/PC revolution. Maybe even more important because there are more pockets than desktops!

Now you're an investor. Let's see this from that angle. The iPhone is a viral marketing tool, it's contagious, it spreads infectiously and exponentially like a virus. Infected people start to look at the rest of Apple's ecosystem and become interested in Macs. Now the iPhone will now be sold in countries where they sell but a few Macintosh if at all. Don't you think there will be a sales explosion for Apple products all across the world? Not just iPhones. Let's just say that there's a high probability of that happening.

The iPhone will be a tremendous propaganda machine. The all competitive cellphone network carriers will do the marketing for Apple for free! However, Apple will also do their mkt stunts like opening the Apple Store in uptown Beijing in August right on the Olympic Games.

So I see this: the iPhone steals sales from iPods but it grows enormously to match Mac sales revenue figures. Added to this Mac sales also increase big time. [Remember that MSFT is helping a lot with their failing Vista and people getting tired of that hell compared to the paradise they experience when using a Mac.] All in all, Apple Inc. doubles. AAPL also surely double because the stock market deals with forward looking potential.

This is what the WWDC is about.