Disqus - Latest Comments for dave mcclure

Re: Flying Solo

dave mcclure — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 10:49:15 -0000

thanks for the detailed writeup... great info.

fyi, you can however map your own domain name using wordpress.com (hosted) blogs... it costs $10 to do the mapping (+ whatever you have to pay to setup the domain), and it can take a few steps, however i've been able to do it fairly quickly after making the attempt several times. possible to do it in less than 10 minutes, assuming DNS redirects quickly.

Re: Former Facebook Exec Van Natta Set to Take Over at MySpace, as Founder DeWolfe Prepares to Step Down

dave mcclure — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 20:11:07 -0000

(kara i'm seeing all the text in this post underlined... not sure if just me or html editing typo)

anyway nice scoop...

Re: AOL Socializes Even More With New Lifestream

dave mcclure — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 12:40:28 -0000

i don't know if it's worth $850M but i will say that's one of the coolest UIs around, perhaps 2nd only to Facebook. they definitely have pulled off some interesting stuff with the Bebo + SocialThing integration.

Re: Goodbye BlackBerry (and Hello iFart App?)

dave mcclure — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 07:18:19 -0000

welcome to the iPhone world :)

not quite the same, but i tweeted the birth of our 2nd kid:
http://twitter.com/davemc500hats/status/2828083

(my wife had no idea however)

Re: Memo to All Crepe-Hangers: It Still Ain't Nobody's Business If Jobs Is or Isn’t

dave mcclure — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 02:43:19 -0000

single sourcing for reporting on steve's health: problematic, unethical, bad deal.

reporting on steve's health: absolutely material, a matter of public record for investors, not an invasion of privacy.

end of story (not).

Re: Twitter: Where Nobody Knows Your Name--The Sequel

dave mcclure — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 06:24:22 -0000

Twitter mainstream relevance in about 1-2 more years (getting closer). FriendFeed, maybe another 1-2 on top of that, altho i expect them to get bought out way before then.

now, your point about Facebook -- how times change, Mrs. Facebook-Apps-Are-Useless-Toys-Herself!

you're quite correct, it's *waaaay* mainstream. and even making a noticeable amount of money, altho everyone seems to think they're still worthless while they're bringing in $250-300M in revenue.

i would agree that people are taking their eye off Facebook & considering them old news when things are just getting very interesting.

(all this aside, i'm still addicted to all 3 services)

Re: Dear Web 2.0: You Might Want to Stop Believin'

dave mcclure — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 11:59:35 -0000

i dunno kara... when you and arrington both agree on something, i definitely think it's a sign of the Apocalypse.

i stand by my initial reaction: fun video made by some folks who looked like they were having a great time on vacation.

save the venom for the folks who blew up our financial system, not a bunch of geeks having a good time.

Re: Dear Web 2.0: You Might Want to Stop Believin'

dave mcclure — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 05:45:27 -0000

FB could have raised plenty of money, tho perhaps not at $15B from anyone but Mr. Softie.

i agree the dude who screwed the pooch on that one was Li Ka-Shing (or should i say Li *not* Ka-Shing). and i think there were some Germans in that last round too. but all of the earlier investors are sitting pretty.

even Microsoft got a seat at the Web 2.0 table, and an option on the future. probably too expensive, but WTF they've got billions left over.

arguably, Facebook probably should have raised money at something around a $5B valuation instead of $15B, if only to make it easier to hire Googlers who might raise an eyebrow at their options... but hey, given the current market it doesn't look like hiring is gonna be a problem anymore ;)

Re: Dear Web 2.0: You Might Want to Stop Believin'

dave mcclure — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 00:53:28 -0000

oh puh-leez kara... if you see Angelo Mozilo partying hard this week, then yes he SHOULD be ashamed (same goes for the AIG execs who ran up a $400K spa bill while Uncle Sam was bailing their asses out).

but Facebook employees on vacation? c'mon, lighten up.

yeah it's gonna be tough in silicon valley for next few years, but FB will do just fine.

Re: Christian the Lion Online Videos to Leap to the Multiplex?

dave mcclure — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:01:09 -0000

wow. that's amazing... and heartwarming :)

Re: The Curious Case of Facebook's Benjamin Ling and Sheryl Sandberg

dave mcclure — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:18:58 -0000

impressive details re: fbDrama. amazing how much popcorn trail you appear to pickup. and people say *i'm* a fanboy...

so what's your secret kara? blogger-equivalent of Harry Potter cloak of invisibility? moonlighting as a barista at Coupa Cafe? or just tapping into the rainbow watercooler? EMWTK.

keep it up ;)

Re: Curtains for the Observer Roles on the Facebook Board?

dave mcclure — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 15:01:53 -0000

"...Greylock Partners David Sze ... and Paul Madera of Meritech Capital Partners, both of whom are early Facebook investors."

ok, maybe i'm nit-picking here, but $27.5M Series B investment on a rumored ~$500-550M pre-money valuation isn't exactly what i think of as an "early" investor. in fact, you'd be stretching to even call Accel's $10M Series A on $100M pre "early". Peter Thiel writing a $500K check was early, the rest of those folks were followers.

i know it's accepted protocol for VCs who do anything shy of $100M mezzanine deals to call themselves "early-stage investors", but that's hogwash.

let's be serious: early investing is when crazy-ass angels like me take a flyer on a company and write them a check before they've even got a product out the door, or when a VC puts down $1-2M on someone they think is smart, before they've demonstrated significant growth or revenue. typically the angel deals are done at pre-money <$1-3M, or VC deals at pre-money <$5-7M.

by definition, if the company has a pre-money valuation north of $10-25M, or is raising a Series B round, it sure as hell ain't early.

btw, the more interesting back-story on the Greylock-Facebook round is that David Sze "passed" on the earlier Series A deal when Accel put $10M in on a $100M pre, but then he had the courage / balls a year later to swallow his pride, change his mind, and jump in on the B round higher valuation. whether or not Facebook is worth $5B or $15B, that decision was probably a savvy one.

for his quote about passing on the earlier deal, see:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/19/technology/19...

Re: Investor Feedback for eBay: Awful Seller. Would Not Buy From Again. F-.

dave mcclure — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:45:26 -0000

like i said... EBAY is possibly the better takeover target than YHOO, for the buyer with deep pockets (aka Microsoft... maybe Goog?)

at least MSFT would know what they're getting, and PayPal market share is still growing (unlike Yahoo).

Re: The Reality of Zuckerberg-Lacy at SxSW

dave mcclure — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:16:44 -0000

re: "disconnect with reality"... don't you think perhaps your lack of physical presence / attendance at the event fits that description better than your 2nd- or 3rd-hand perception of the audience reaction?
>> so those of us not at SxSW could see the reality
um, riiiight. reality. yeah.
i'm perplexed at how many folks are stepping up as experts on what happened when they weren't even there. video might give you a 7x5 thumbnail view of what you think happened, but it's certainly no replacement for being there in person, before you profess that you "saw the reality". you might want to talk to the other 2,000 people who witnessed it first-hand.
altho i think the video was uncomfortablen enough by itself, i think the experience many of us had who attended in person was vastly different.
i just find it curious those who weren't around are schooling those of us who were in what actually happened.

Re: Diagram: How the Air Force Response to Blogs

dave mcclure — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 19:49:12 -0000

interesting piece about your grandpa. love the pinup shot :)

Re: Google’s Social Media Team Reaches to Agencies (and hosts Facebook, MySpace, and H&R Block)

dave mcclure — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 20:14:32 -0000

(top image typo: as far as i know, dick is still with google, not facebook)

Re: Adapting to Change on the Reef

dave mcclure — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:46:05 -0000

thanks for the hat tip J :)

Re: What ‘Facebook Connect’ Means for Corporate Websites

dave mcclure — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:06:22 -0000

yep, on target.

people really only starting to grok it, but the combination of FB Connect & FB Payments (once it ships) will be quite powerful for off-platform services.

my rants from march probably aren't as sane or sober as your post above, but fwiw here was my take:

Web 3.0 isn't the Semantic Web, it's Hailstorm 2.0
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/03/web...

(see last section on 'The Always-Logged-In Web: No More Passwords, The Targeted Friend List, & Viral E-Commerce')

Re: To Inspire You To Donate: PhotoBlog from China

dave mcclure — Thu, 22 May 2008 08:20:39 -0000

nice job jeremiah :)

Re: A Groundswell at SXSW: How The Audience Revolted and Asserted Control

dave mcclure — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:36:56 -0000

>>monitor the back channel

yeah, i think this is probably one of the biggest takeaways. altho even tho we've had the ability, most panels don't typically have a computer or phone available to do this.

i think in the future i will plan to make this more available for panels & sessions i participate in, and for conferences i run. it may take awhile to get used to, but i think it is kind of silly that we don't actually use the tools we talk about when we're up there on stage.

Re: Commemorating the Idiocy of the Dot Com Era: Did we Repeat or Reform?

dave mcclure — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 09:58:06 -0000

1) Reform: only 3-star restaurants, and not full-course meals

2) Repeat: still some crazy ass ideas, just not the extra zero or two in funding

3) Reform: except for Googlers, we're on a budget this time

4) Repeat/Reform: some of that happening again, altho salaries aren't as crazy unless you're an engineer

5) Repeat: offline biz still don't get no respect, and not enough startups valuing cold hard cash

6) Repeat/Reform: no one thinks they're going IPO except Facebook & LinkedIn, but still some optimistic views on exits with little rev$

7) Repeat: lots of NYC imports again

overall, we're probably halfway to hell in a handbasket again... albeit, we're driving there at half the speed of a decade ago, and on a third of the budget and insanity.

Re: Forrester Report: Online Community Best Practices

dave mcclure — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:37:22 -0000

congrats Jeremiah!

(& happy valentine's day too :)

Re: Hey Armchair Critics, Rate the SuperBowl ads this Sunday using Twitter “TwitterBowl”

dave mcclure — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 12:27:55 -0000

damn sounds like fun. unfort I'll be airborne for most of the game. crap. cheers anyway to you & solis & company! hope 2 c u later this week.

Re: Social Network Stats: Facebook, MySpace, Reunion (Jan, 2008)

dave mcclure — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:52:00 -0000

i know it's hard to make applesauce out of oranges, but if you could choose a smaller set of comparison stats to measure across each that would be helpful to summarize, perhaps in tabular or visual format (ex: monthly uniques, time on site per day/mo).

otherwise, very interesting stuff & please do it as frequently as you're willing to release :)

Re: Facebook: Innovative yet Conceited

dave mcclure — Sun, 23 Dec 2007 20:23:44 -0000

sorry, i think you're off base here jeremiah.... and making predictions with your cluetrain-blogger heart rather than your forrester-analyst head.

while i'd agree FB could do a better job on customer feedback & testing, there's no empirical evidence of any significance to point towards a future "mutiny". in fact, quite the opposite.

if anything, statistically-speaking the customer reaction to Beacon was even more muted than it was to the initial News Feed launch. Facebook is more likely insured against than vulnerable to future customer revolt.

not that i'm advocating it, however from a pure business perspective they might easily decide to take more risk, not less.

show me the numbers, and i'll believe it. until then, i still think Beacon was a minor mis-step, not a grass-roots revolution.

Re: The Four Tenets of the Community Manager

dave mcclure — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 04:52:51 -0000

yah, that's pretty much on target.

i might simplify even further, combine #1 & #4 into "represent the customer to the company", and combine #2 & #3 into "represent the company to the customer".

basically, i think it's those 2 plus one more:
* market research & community listening (inbound)
* company / product education & evangelism (outbound)
* identify / amplify community cheerleaders (both)

the last one is important if you're trying to scale... you can't do it all yourself. if you can find other evangelists / cheerleaders in your community, make sure you give them amplification.

nice piece J :)

Re: A victim of my own doing and how to be a dumbass in Facebook

dave mcclure — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 15:26:32 -0000

been there, done that. multiple times.

actually, the ones my wife *DOESN'T* tell me about are the ones that worry me.

you know, the items that come up in conversation at 3am in bed, a month *AFTER* you did something totally stupid and/or misinterpreted.

i've been a dumbass all my life... social media just multiplies my dumbass-edness.

forgive me honey, i am a social media whore and i have sinned. mea culpa, mea culpa.

- dmc

Re: Facebook Poke: Social Impact from a Feature with no Purpose

dave mcclure — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 10:41:07 -0000

btw, the last one on your list there doesn't seem so bad ;)

Re: Facebook Poke: Social Impact from a Feature with no Purpose

dave mcclure — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 10:40:31 -0000

comedy aside, it is sort of odd how my perception of 'poke' has changed over the past year or so...

i used to think it was kind of a weird or subtly flirty feature... but now it's kind of just like a 'hey what up' thing. a year ago i would have thought it strange to 'poke' another guy, and kind of creepy to 'poke' a woman without getting the other meaning.

now, i don't think anything of bopping down a friends list and poking 5-10 people at a time, men or women. it's strange how my awareness / comfort of the feature has changed over time.

** Dave pokes Jeremiah & winks knowingly, in a very uncomfortable way **

Re: Web Strategy: What the Web Strategist should know about Facebook

dave mcclure — Sat, 11 Aug 2007 16:50:37 -0000

friggin excellent jeremiah... damn fine post!

- dave

Re: All your widgets are belong to Facebook

dave mcclure — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 02:17:45 -0000

good food for thought jeremiah, altho i still think a plentiful walled garden with great app infrastructure might be a more interesting place to hang out than a very wide open potato field with just a few scraggly potatoes ;)

my take on Facebook = Microsoft Visual Basic is here:
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/kot...

- dmc

Re: Facebook to supplant email?

dave mcclure — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 00:02:31 -0000

great observation, and i'd say i agree for folks who have mroe than 80-90% of their contacts on facebook, why even bother with email?

certainly the no-spam item you mention is a huge benefit (altho i've gotten lots of spam msgs on myspace, wonder if facebook isn't also subject to that over time).

how strange to think of email as an anachronism.

damn i'm getting old.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: “Pay yourself first” and “One thing leads to another”

dave mcclure — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 00:06:26 -0000

nice. i really need to think like this more often.

thanks :)

Re: A list of web ready CRMs companies and sites (and a cheaper alternative to SalesForce)

dave mcclure — Thu, 31 May 2007 12:03:35 -0000

i believe GetSatisfaction.com is also launching soon... at the very least, Lane & Thor picked a cool name for the company :)

Re: My Blog was down…again

dave mcclure — Thu, 31 May 2007 12:01:54 -0000

Dear Friend -

Our deepest condolences at this time for your recent downtime. We hope your server is feeling better soon, and we wish the best of luck with your new Web 2.0 facelift.

godspeed,

- your readers

Re: 20 reasons why PR doesn’t work

dave mcclure — Fri, 25 May 2007 23:35:35 -0000

jeremiah -

you're not really a PR person, but you do play one on the web ;)

- dmc

Re: Freemium or Premium? Are the no cost Web Analytics Packages dangerous?

dave mcclure — Tue, 08 May 2007 19:31:42 -0000

let's get one thing straight: free is great.

there is absolutely nothing wrong with free, but it does beg the question: "where's the catch?"

in google's case, the "catch" is that overall better user experience & conversion rates result in more successful search, browse, and purchasing experiences on the web. which in turn, also contribute to Google's bottom line (currently mostly CPC-driven, but in the future also CPA-driven).

so altho Google is "giving" it away, the product helps them achieve a higher-level goal -- "free" analytics tools (& a/b testing, and checkout) help drive more advertising revenue, and the bottom line.

where "free" isn't always so great is if the product is inferior to other paid tools, or the functionality is overly complicated.

on the former point, GA competes very well against more expensive tools from larger vendors... those other tools are still valuable, and will still have market share with mid- and large-size companies. but GA brings web analytics to the small biz / common man... which also happens to be a target customer for the GOOG.

on the latter point, GA 2.0 is now a LOT easier to understand and use than GA 1.0 / Urchin (thanks to Jeff Veen & MeasureMap folks)... altho there's still more to be done.

in summary: nothing wrong with free, but the real challenge is still adoption & user education... which is now going to be a big mission for Google. evangelizing and marketing GA 2.0 to the unwashed masses of clueless website owners is a big task.

welcome to the new platform evangelism challenge: website analytics for the common man.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Web 2.0 Expo: What a Gnome, Hawk, Strategist and Nude have in common

dave mcclure — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 01:06:44 -0000

you know you really need to add pictures to support that headline ;)

(and i know exactly the ones to use for the chris & for robert... 2 of them are here:
http://valleywag.com/tech/geeks-gone-wild/10-mo...

might have to look around for one that works for hawk but he's got puh-lenty ;)

Re: Week 2 at PodTech and Community Feedback Encouraged!

dave mcclure — Fri, 08 Dec 2006 11:11:03 -0000

good luck with the new gig jeremiah!

my general framework for strategy planning at a startup looks like this, most of the time:
* ready
* fire
* aim
(fire, aim... fire, aim... fire, aim)

hopefully by about the 3rd time, you hit something. with luck, it might not be your foot :)

- dave mcclure

Re: Jeremiah headed to Podtech!

dave mcclure — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 02:37:29 -0000

congrats jeremiah... that's AWESOME news :)

Re: Best Wishes to Damon Billion, the Customer and Community Advocate

dave mcclure — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:42:48 -0000

(uh, very flattering pictures of both of you guys ;)

great hanging out with you guys last weekend, and here's to Damon's overthrow of the thai government on his first week in town!

(i think he's really going a little too far trying to impress his fiance...

- dave

Re: Media is OFFICIALLY Upside Down…Lindzon is on a Web Video Panel

dave mcclure — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 03:17:21 -0000

howard, we didn't pick you for beauty, but we did pick you for lively commentary...

don't let us down!

;)

- dmc

Re: More in the Email Buzzosphere

dave mcclure — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 13:00:38 -0000

hi rob -

surprised i didn't see this before... thanks for the comments & feedback. while i agree the odds are long these concepts turn into huge billion-dollar bizne$$e$, i do believe the potential is there.

in any case, it's refreshing to see someone parse the main points of my post so quickly / clearly and riff on them. whether or not you agree, i appreciate the ability to review the ideas & provide thoughtful response :)

regards,

- dmc

Re: What's next?

dave mcclure — Tue, 30 Jan 2007 00:19:11 -0000

interesting post brad :)

i'd agree, the underlying tech stack probably matters only in terms of cost (both to buy and also to manage, tho likely more focus on the latter).

what's next?

i agree data is likely the next layer... but more specifically, it's around data interchange & APIs, rss & microformats, and some kind of event model that works between sites & services to enable triggers for other processes. the overall infrastructure is mostly there, just not very rigorous / reliable yet.

what else matters?

well, if we're not talking about machine-enabled functionality, i'd still say these 3 things matter for consumer-facing services:

1) simple & useful product features -- (note: "features" perhaps similar to your "data", but i prefer the user-centric view). these days, product development should be super iterative based on initial & ongoing market research, user feedback (qualitative), web metrics (quantitative), and lots of a/b testing.

2) effective & measurable marketing -- these days the marketing mix is broader than ever, but also more measurable than ever. however, marketing skills/delivery are a lot more tech-driven. SEM, SEO, widgets, blogs & RSS, and good ol' links & email. even some PR still works, tho less critical than before i think. built-in viral features like Geni.com are probably the best marketing... that and simple word of mouth from customers that love the product (see #1).

3) cost structure / revenue / rebates -- how does the company attract customers & generate revenue? do they offer the service paid or free? how about less than free? (ie, rebated revenue to users). finding an effective monetization strategy and using that to reduce costs (both fixed operational & variable customer acquisition) is still relevant, even in a "freemium" web 2.0 world. users count, so even a "free" service can acquire value thru usage & content. however, users + real money work even better.

lots of other interesting stuff happening, but for consumer-facing services those are the important ones. security & privacy for certain companies, pretty UI for others, scalability & infrastructure for high volume sites.... but almost everyone has to deal with the 3 noted above.

- dave mcclure

http://500hats.typepad.com</p>

Re: What's next?

dave mcclure — Tue, 30 Jan 2007 00:19:11 -0000

interesting post brad :)

i'd agree, the underlying tech stack probably matters only in terms of cost (both to buy and also to manage, tho likely more focus on the latter).

what's next?

what else matters?

well, if we're not talking about machine-enabled functionality, i'd still say these 3 things matter for consumer-facing services:

- dave mcclure

http://500hats.typepad.com

Re: http://www.rev2.org/2007/04/14/10-most-successful-web-20-startups-to-date/

dave mcclure — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 20:00:42 -0000

these 3 should at least get honorable mention, if not somewhere in the #6-10 spots:
* Photobucket
* Wordpress
* SixApart
* BitTorrent
* DeviantArt

Re: James Siminoff

dave mcclure — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:18:12 -0000

i completely agree.

one semester, i got an A+, a B, a C, a D, and an F.

the A+ was in programming, and i took the final stoned (on purpose) and passed with flying colors. the F was in a class i didn't care about, and i slept thru one of the major exams.

for me it was more about motivation & interest than effort & focus. perhaps that makes me a bad or dumb student, but i'd rather work with people who outperform in a few areas, and aspire to competency in others, rather than expecting that everyone will be above average in all things.

Re: James Siminoff

dave mcclure — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 11:24:14 -0000

hey thanks james :)

btw, i'm friends with your cousin David (right?), both co-investors in SlideShare. hope to meetup sometime...

Re: Would You Sacrifice Your 10 Best Friends For A Free Whopper?

dave mcclure — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 18:12:03 -0000

ouch. no birthday beers for you, buddy. this means war.

Re: It’s science: Money, like sex, drives us crazy

dave mcclure — Fri, 03 Feb 2006 14:27:11 -0000

actually, the rush of buying Google occcured when i bought it @ $85, and also later when i sold it @ $180, but i doubt i would have a similar rush now @ $400 ;)

Re: Mullenweg: We don’t want cash…well, ok, maybe we’ll take some

dave mcclure — Fri, 14 Apr 2006 09:47:22 -0000

blog for money, get advice.

blog for advice, get money.

:)

Re: NBC CEO Jeff Zucker: Jon Stewart Was "Incredibly Unfair" to CNBC

dave mcclure — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:38:16 -0000

sorry, totally unfair my ass.

live by the sword, die by the sword.

Cramer gets props for coming on the show, but he also deserved every bit of that... and CNBC even more so.

comment of the evening by Stewart in response to Cramer suggesting they do "Fast Money" because there's a market for it: "... well there's a market for Cocaine & Hookers too!!!"

'zactly.

Re: Advice for Fired Yahoos: How to Build Your Own Business That Doesn't Suck

dave mcclure — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:47:04 -0000

peter: seems like the embed works fine for me (on firefox / macbook)

if any problems just tweet @slideshare

Re: Silicon Valley Entrepreneur (and Google Exec) Joe Kraus Moves to Google Ventures

dave mcclure — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:01:04 -0000

congrats Joe!

(and also to Bill Maris / Rich Miner & team... great scoop for them :)

Re: Andreessen and Horowitz Complete Raising Dough for $300-Million Venture Fund--Let the Seed Investing Begin!

dave mcclure — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 03:40:55 -0000

will be interesting to see if this indicates any trend towards more entrepreneur-driven funds. definitely good to see experienced operators running VC funds. congrats marc & ben.

Re: Open Thread: What’s the hottest private Silicon Valley company right now?

dave mcclure — Wed, 10 May 2006 05:53:32 -0000

hmmm. both facebook & youtube look like home runs, and i'd agree with mac s comment that linden labs also appears in that category.

based on recent valuation alone i'd say facebook, but i don't think we've seen the end of the growth curve on either youtube or linden labs yet.

a few other companies that should have a decent-to-big payday somewhere in the future:
- BitTorrent
- SixApart
- LinkedIn
- Digg

maybe also Mozilla.com? (dunno what the picture looks like there due to the non-profit ownership, but they're certainly pulling down real dough)

and while we're on the non-profit front, couldn't fail to mention:
- Wikipedia
- Craigslist
- Mozilla.org

lastly, there's probably a bunch of adult sites and SEM/lead-gen companies no one's ever heard of that are making buttloads (no pun intended) of cash too. not my thing personally, but since you asked... ;)

- dmc

Re: Clearstone’s David Stern: “Will MySpace eat its young?”

dave mcclure — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 03:08:10 -0000

>>..Everything that eBay does in their ecosystem and developer networks supports transactions and growing eBay revenues

mmm, that's a bit of an overstatement.

certainly, prior to being acquired by eBay, those of us at PayPal did not particularly feel like eBay mgmt was being focused on "supporting the ecosystem" while they were shoving Billpoint down their users' gullets. only after it was apparent that PayPal was kicking their own solution's butt did they decide to acquire the company, and then IMMEDIATELY in Q3 & Q4 of '02 after the acquisition, eBay marketplace transaction volume took off and the stock went on a tear for the next 2 years.

however, over the past few years eBay mgmt has certainly shown a fondness for PROFIT growth over REVENUE growth, and has apparently made the decision to optimize for profit in the short-term. this was made evident in their decision to raise pricing twice in the past 2 years, at the same time their own data indicates that growth has been slowing on the marketplace on both US domestic and international fronts.

while i respect David's experience & insights, i would not say that eBay has always shown particularly brilliant judgement in how to support growth in its own market.

imo, the paypal opportunity is still larger outside the eBay marketplace than on it. it will be interesting to see if Meg ever decides that 3% of the entire retail merchandising market is a bigger pie than 7-9% of the [much smaller] auction market.

- dave mcclure

[full disclosure: i used to work for PayPal, an eBay competitor^h^h^h^h^h company]

Re: Clearstone’s David Stern: “Will MySpace eat its young?”

dave mcclure — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 06:18:32 -0000

okay, i agree that's on target analysis.

much as i'm impressed with my ex-paypal peeps over at YouTube kicking butt, i've also been impressed that MySpace videos is doing reasonably well themselves.

i've met the folks down there, and they're a lot more clueful than you'd imagine most large portals / acquisitions to be. i'd agree that MySpace will likely start to extract every possible piece of value from its ecosystem, especially with Ross Levinson (super bright guy) & Rupert running chaperone.

still, for folks that run fast & hard & innovate, i do think there are plenty of opportunities to "draft" off the MySpace ecosystem... just as PayPal did with eBay. in fact, i'd say YouTube could inspire its own group of ecosystem wannabes.

watch this space ;)

- dmc

Re: Wablet offers IM widget, but filters out the riff-raff

dave mcclure — Thu, 24 Aug 2006 06:39:24 -0000

hey it's green & blue! i guess it's gotta be good, right? ;)

seriously, that does look rather interesting.

Re: VentureBeat is back

dave mcclure — Sat, 02 Sep 2006 17:24:17 -0000

>> Two wordsâ€¦ Load Balancer! :)

nope, actually i prefer 3 words:

dedicated. sys. admin.

congrats matt, and hope things go a little less rocky as you roll on ahead :)

- dave mcclure

ps - we had our moments during the GigaOm launch too... seems every blogger going commercial appears to have had their own private trial by fire.

Re: Why I hate Evite

dave mcclure — Wed, 20 Sep 2006 17:27:07 -0000

i trust Auren's opinion & perspective on eVite, however the disclaimer that he's an investor in Socializr should go right at the top.

(makes a big difference whether that information is available to readers *before* the endorsement vs after)

note: there are also several other evite competitor sites with products in alpha or beta. while i agree with Auren that eVite hasn't been innovating much, i don't think Socializr will be the only available option.

- dave mcclure

Re: The downfall of female role models

dave mcclure — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 04:01:16 -0000

problem: not enough female role models / leader stereotypes in tech & business.

solution: teach girls math & science, have them play sports, wait 40 years.

we've been working on it for about 20-30 years, but the cohorts probably aren't quite old enough yet... however if you look at the change in just the past 10 years in Fortune 500 CEOs and the Senate and the House, the change is quite noticeable. nowhere near parity yet, but dramatically improved from two decades back.

i was raised by a single mother who was a business owner & entrepreneur. she overcame... pretty darn sure joyce will too. (and if i have a damn thing to say about it, so will my daughter; due in january :)

joyce: you & mary hodder better kick ass. my kid's gonna need someone to look up to... don't you dare disappoint her!

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: The downfall of female role models

dave mcclure — Fri, 22 Sep 2006 10:46:05 -0000

>>What needs to change is womenâ€™s contributions need to be treated fairly and equally.

Shelley: how do you propose to make this happen?

people shouldn't be poor or ugly either, but nothing changes until you either 1) give money, or 2) do something.

what's your solution?

Re: The downfall of female role models

dave mcclure — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 13:33:03 -0000

shelley: i am surely not suggesting this is a problem for women only to solve. that said, i'm a big believer in "The Lord Helps Those Who Help Themselves".

rather than simply observing there's a problem or carp about "society" having to do something, i'd propose more specific ways to address the situation.

given the choice of solutions proposed "gold star day" for women (yours), or the option to create more programs for science, math, & athletics for females at the primary & secondary school level (mine)... somehowe i think mine might be a little more effective.

Title IX is a much more constructive longitudinal approach to addressing these issues than waiting for "society" or someone else to solve the problem. cheers to Patsy Mink.

Re: Spock offers an ambitious “people” search engine

dave mcclure — Wed, 01 Nov 2006 02:36:31 -0000

Spock rocks. 'nuff said.

Re: Blogosphere slowing?

dave mcclure — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 14:02:34 -0000

Web 2.0? it's *so* over... ;)

(see you at the show!)

Re: Internal “Peanut Butter” memo at Yahoo points to malaise

dave mcclure — Mon, 20 Nov 2006 02:54:52 -0000

actually, bureaucracy aside, i think they just need to fix the monetization problem. that, and step on the gas on the acquisitions.

if they do those 2 things, the rest of it will be just fine.

Re: Simply Hired keeps expanding its job search

dave mcclure — Tue, 05 Dec 2006 12:41:12 -0000

Leon: while i won't comment on the overall accuracy (or lack thereof) of Alexa traffic metrics, regardless i don't believe the MySpace & LinkedIn traffic #'s are included in the Simply Hired alexa ranking.

[full disclosure: i'm an investor in Simply Hired, and former employee / current advisor]

Re: Ron Conway’s Web 2.0 tour de force, and VentureBeat’s mea culpa

dave mcclure — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 05:25:11 -0000

as an objective observer, i'm not sure index investing is a winning strategy for venture capital... however as an entrepreneur, i'm happy to see ron headed my way, or towards startups i advise ;)

here's to the next Google!

Re: Who cares about Community?

dave mcclure — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 02:30:22 -0000

nice piece noah... i rate it aok (dork!)

as for me, i'm regularly involved in these communities:
* geeks / entrepreneurs / internet startups
* microfinance / social entrepreneurship
* ultimate frisbee

in addition to the above, i've gradually become semi-adopted by several asian & south indian communities due to many family & friends, and i find this diversity of bay area community to be one of the things i value most about living in california.

what's interesting to me is that as technology advances, i find myself participating in MORE, rather than LESS offline & online communities... it seems like the internet helps connect people with smaller & smaller niche communities of more specific interest, and help bring them closer together.

now isn't that special :)

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Still looking to invest in Web 2.0

dave mcclure — Sat, 13 Jan 2007 00:13:33 -0000

hey tom: snarks aside, have to say i agree with sceptic & dealboy.

these days, there are lots of folks out there who have money to fund new ventures: angels, small VCs, big VCs, even the entrepreneurs themselves in many cases.

i'd have to say the biggest challenge for many VCs is to establish their own area of focus & expertise, and to communicate to startups & entrepreneurs why working with you is better for them.

anyway, i'm guessing you & other folks at Woodside have a more specific area of investing focus than just "web 2.0"... you might be able to help both yourself & potential startups out there by focusing on what that is.

i'm guessing with your background at NetGravity & DoubleClick, you probably have a solid foundation in internet advertising. that would be a significant advantage for many startups out there.

just my .02,

- dave mcclure

Re: What to look for in an Internet investment

dave mcclure — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 11:57:20 -0000

great summary & observations :)

as with your other articles on Startup-Review.com, definitely worth the read.

- dave

Re: Don’t listen to your community

dave mcclure — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 02:56:29 -0000

great post noah, and great examples.

i think the main thing you need to gauge when listening to community is whether the feedback is a) representative, b) consistent, and c) aligned with the business.

sometimes it's hard to figure those out, particularly the 2nd one. however if you keep hearing the same comment in forum threads or blog comment or via email request, it might not be just a minority opinion. altho subject to bias, surveys can also be a way to add quantitative info to qualitative feedback.

when i used to work at PayPal, we often got requests for many features that didn't make sense for the business. however a few of them -- such as changing account creation at the time of transaction to an opt-in choice post-transaction -- actually resulted in reduced customer service or operational costs.

certainly not all community requests, even popular ones, need become features... however you do probably want to listen to the ones that come in volume and won't bust your budget.

the other great thing about actually putting some business muscle behind a few of the requests is that once you do, the community may help you sell & promote them.

(and for the record: just because you're organizing an ultimate frisbee group doesn't mean you know what they want... a phrase commonly applied to managing programmers 'herding cats' comes to mind. i've had the pleasure... cough... of doing both ;)

Re: From GOP to IPO: Silicon Valley republicans and entrepreneurship

dave mcclure — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 02:12:10 -0000

PayPal = Animal House?

heh, sure ;)

TOOOOOOOGGGGGAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Re: From GOP to IPO: Silicon Valley republicans and entrepreneurship

dave mcclure — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 16:08:47 -0000

hi, my name is dave mcclure and i'm starting a new political [sub]-group called "Dr. Seuss Republicans"... for more info on this important development, please read details on my blog.

we now return you to your regularly scheduled argument.

;)

Re: The top five VCs under 40 — what do you think?

dave mcclure — Mon, 14 May 2007 19:08:30 -0000

having worked with both Peter & Roelof, my allegiance is split... but i'll go with Peter at the moment since i'd rate Facebook a slightly bigger score than YouTube (barely). Roelof may overtake him in the future, but it's all in the ex-PayPal Mafia family regardless ;)

if you expanded the list slightly & included a few angels i'd also add:
* Josh Kopelman
* Jeff Clavier
* Reid Hoffman

don't know Danny personally, but i've heard very good things about him as well. and Fred's only in the comments, but he rocks (over 40 tho, i think?)

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Elementeo’s 13-year-old CEO, highlight of TiECON

dave mcclure — Sat, 19 May 2007 17:11:32 -0000

that's just terrific stuff :)

Re: Prosper raises $20M to assert lead in person-to-person loans

dave mcclure — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 03:27:18 -0000

$10M or $20M? which is it?

Re: Venture firm throws money at Facebook leeches

dave mcclure — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 13:59:33 -0000

matt to himself: "hmm, let's see... headline for article... "throws candy to developers?"... naah, not enough sizzle... "throws blood at leeches?"... no no no... "throws MONEY at leeches?".... ah, perfect.

;)

Re: Quantcast becomes latest widget traffic tracker

dave mcclure — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 21:21:08 -0000

great summary piece. very informative :)

Re: Venture firm throws money at Facebook leeches

dave mcclure — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 21:24:09 -0000

@entrepreneur: wait... u mean a VC indicated they might fund you, and then DIN'T ?!?

no *WAY*... OMG that's SO not cool.

(seriously: are you like 12 years old?)

Re: The Facebook lawsuit that hasn’t gone away

dave mcclure — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 02:02:51 -0000

one other note about IPOs... they tend to bring everybody & their uncle out of the wordwork, and they file suits right about the time the company goes into its quiet period.

the intent is to fuck with the target company's IPO filing, and also fuck with their PR when they're not supposed to be saying much publicly.

there were a shitload of these that came down right as PayPal was getting ready to go out (banks, legislators, competitors, IP claims, patent filers, etc, etc). i'm sure every company going public goes thru it, some more noticeably than others.

however, in the end most times either thru failed suits and/or negotiated settlements, the beat goes on...

Re: The Facebook lawsuit that hasn’t gone away

dave mcclure — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 02:04:19 -0000

er, "woodwork".

i kant spel reel gud yet, but i can has cheezburger.

(in yr blog, makin' pour commentz)

Re: Facebook’s first acquisition: secretive start-up Parakey

dave mcclure — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 00:23:45 -0000

man those guys are really doubling down on Platform.

i think Google is having a really bad day today.

Re: Q&A with Saar Gur, on Facebook

dave mcclure — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 01:32:31 -0000

Saar is a really smart AND really nice guy. pretty rare combination ('specially for a VC ;)

Gotta hand it to George & team over at CRV -- they've really done well by themselves recruiting both Susan & Saar.

Those two are some *great* ambassadors for the next generation of startups.

- dmc

Re: Q&A with Saar Gur, on Facebook

dave mcclure — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 17:48:03 -0000

@cynic: seriously dude; if you want to rip on someone, get a fucking spine and sign your post.

while it's quite reasonable to have a harsh take, hiding behind "anon" signins is chickenshit. at least REAL assault bloggers like denton & calacanis stand behind their vitriol.

OWN it fer chrissakes, ya whiner.

- dmc

Re: Surprise: Facebook apps may help grow home sites

dave mcclure — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 03:42:18 -0000

that's me... heart on sleeve, feet in mouth.

(thx eric)

Re: Surprise: Facebook apps may help grow home sites

dave mcclure — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 11:51:42 -0000

i think these are revealing stats / good indicators, however i would also say that top-line app install #'s & unique visitor #'s are probably not the best ways to measure overall business impact.

in particular, while you may be able to convert Facebook users over to site visitors, in order to justify the effort of doing customer acquisition via FB app development, you probably want to measure user engagement at some deeper level conversion where it has obvious benefit to your core business features/services & monetization.

i'm pretty sure this is the case for all of the companies noted, however it might not be clear from just top-line UV's that the converted traffic is beneficial.

for more thoughts on this, see recent post:
User Engagement is a Breadth, not a Depth, Metric
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/use...

- dave mcclure

Re: Roundup: The Obama Valley, Twitter’s cash, Zonbu, SimplyHired and more

dave mcclure — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 15:43:12 -0000

... 'annoying graphics' ?!? hey I spent a lot of time using MS PaintBrush to put those beautiful works of art together!

;)

Re: The Y Combinator List

dave mcclure — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 02:22:04 -0000

Fuzzwich effin rocks. actually a lot of those startups today looked pretty good.

Paul must be feeding them something i think...

Re: The Y Combinator List

dave mcclure — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 10:44:22 -0000

on the contrary, perhaps it's an instance of you as a commenter being too smart for your own good.

actually the data Adpinion was showing indicated they were seeing 2x normal clicks than regular banners. that would seem to be notable for advertisers.

and seriously: you think mainstream audience are using adblocking tools? dude, you are way out of touch. at best that's 5-10% of market, likely much smaller.

actually the most important part of what they're doing is using feedback to collect info on which ads are relevant / clustered together for some users. this provides an interesting & new way to do targeting.

i admit i was skeptical at first, but i think they might have something.

Re: The Y Combinator List

dave mcclure — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 19:30:41 -0000

@aaron: you're certainly entitled to your opinions (and sometimes i even agree with you), however i don't get how you feel like i'm attacking you -- particularly when i feel like *you're* attacking others (and indirectly me, since i stated a positive opinion before your negative one).

i guess my feeling is that when you jump in with critical commentary, you should be willing to withstand similar critical commentary right back.

if on the other hand, you think i'm attacking you unjustly & moreso than you're criticing the Y-Combinator companies above... then my apologies.

- dmc

Re: The Y Combinator List

dave mcclure — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 00:38:34 -0000

@TD: i thought i did make a point... 2 in fact.

i stated that AdPinion seemed to have discovered a way to double the clicks on ad banners. i also made the point that i don't think mainstream audience uses ad blocking software.

while you're possibly correct they may have discovered something that others can copy (i'm sure they'd disagree), the fact is they seem to have figured out something notable. remains to be seen if they can turn that into a business and/or defensible IP, but i think you're ripping them unduly.

every Y-Combinator & Tech Star company by definition is doing something new & limited in scale, since they have to build it in ~3 months. thus it's easy to criticize, and easy to suggest it could be easily copied.

that said, i was still impressed by several of the companies (Fauxto in particular, others as well), and Y Combinator seems to be building some level of success recognition.

your hating aside, i'd say they're outperforming the average.

Re: Facebook debunked

dave mcclure — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 02:56:01 -0000

nice writeup kevin.

however, i don't agree the Gold Rush is over... as a parallel perspective, the Search industry wasn't over just because a few sites got well-indexed by Yahoo and/or Alta Vista in '95, or by Google in '99.

there will certainly be dominant players on Platform, and there will be App fatigue by users, however count on there being LOTS of large, medium, and small winners both now & well into the future.

while invites and other tricks of the trade have been opportunistically used by early movers such as Slide, RockYou & others, those are certainly not the only methods to get attention / adoption.

in fact, there are PLENTY of mistakes even the top players are making on how they utilize the Feed, and there's still a lot left for everyone to learn.

finally, i do agree with your assessment of NFO = SEO = BIG opportunity.

the question is not whether, but when, do Facebook & other app players figure out monetization & paid / sponsored feed opportunities. in fact it's already happening, and once that becomes a little more self-service i expect there to be tons of people jumping in.

regardless, great piece & hope to read more from you on the subject!

- dmc

Re: Facebook’s platform to reward good, punish bad applications

dave mcclure — Tue, 28 Aug 2007 13:52:18 -0000

good move by Facebook in general on user engagmenet metrics (and kudos to Dave Morin for trying to give a heads-up to the developer community *before* they make the change).

that said, i know from speaking to several Facebook App developers that aiming for a moving target on invites / notifications / messaging strategy is pretty challenging.

hopefully there is some "give" for "white hats" as well as some "take away" for "black hats" on the available messaging features.

still, i like the philosophy overall. given that things are moving so quickly, good to see them adjusting strategy to help benefit the overall community.

btw, my thoughts on FB user engagement metrics here:
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/use...

Re: In history revision, Microsoft now a friend of the valley

dave mcclure — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:37:32 -0000

really interesting observations matt. and i think spot on for the most part.

fascinating how microsoft has changed from overlord back to underdog.

(altho there was also a time in the late 80's / early 90's where microsoft was an earlier underdog too).

consistent tho with everything that Microsoft has been about since its earliest beginnings, is this story is about *developers*... this time, perhaps thru Facebook's platform, instead of the Microsoft Windows platform.

as dominant as Google is / has been, i still don't think they've really got inside the head of the developer community, and that's still an opportunity / challenge for them to figure out. perhaps a little healthy competition will make the GOOG pay more attention on that front, and i hope they are successful in making progress there.

- dave mcclure

Re: Cookie tracking: How Facebook could be worth $100 billion?

dave mcclure — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 12:28:11 -0000

@eric: you don't get the princess bride reference? required reading / watching my friend!

see "INconCEIVable!"

Re: Do Facebook users care about “privacy issues?” What about Doubleclick?

dave mcclure — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 11:17:15 -0000

this is SUCH a non-issue.

sure, a universal opt-out would be nice... and given how FEW people would give a FF, Facebook should probably go ahead and do it anyway.

but as you note, such a small % of people understand and/or care about this, that's it pretty much a complete non-issue. a slightly larger issue is the overall treatment of user cookies across multiple sites, as you note re: Doubleclick.

but what's the bigger issue for Facebook?

none of this is all that compelling, and it's only a slight upgrade from the previous Sponsored Stories experience.

until there is 1) a lot more inventory of Beacon / paid News Feed stories, and 2) the CTR goes up on those items, this is not going to be a happy story for Facebook monetization.

personally, i think there has to be more incentive in the system for users to publish & click on this data. it's not a bad idea, but as currently implemented it doesn't appear to be getting a lot of traction. if that doesn't change soon, it's not a very good story for FB.

Re: Zuck apologizes for Beacon — announces a full opt-out

dave mcclure — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 17:41:14 -0000

sweet beacon-on-fire image there. nice job :)

Re: Friendster, Bebo, LinkedIn all opening — aren’t waiting for OpenSocial

dave mcclure — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 09:51:10 -0000

great piece eric.

I think eventually Open Social will settle in as an alternative to company-specific platforms, but there are advantages to exposing more proprietary API infrastructure assuming companies can keep the attention of developers.

it may be that Open Social requires Google to use it on its own major domestic platforms ( gmail, igoogle, youtube ) in order to establish viability & critical mass. or perhaps MySpace can help them get it rolling with their community.

we'll see... 2008 is definitely going to be the Year of the Platform (or did someone already claim that for 2007, 06, 05, or 04? ;) this year fer SHUR.

Re: Bang Ventures: the American Idol of tech

dave mcclure — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 02:04:26 -0000

hmmm. sounds like good entertainment, and i'm all for more innovation around startup / venture process, but i gotta think the formula ain't:

Startup Success = Founder(idea) + Bang(engineers + cash)

more like:

Startup Success = Founder(idea + engineers) + VC(cash) + [lots of iteration]

either way, founders are a lot more important than the [initial] idea. great people will tweak a so-so idea, and figure out how to make it work. not so great people will f*#@ up even the best ideas and crater.

still, should be fun to watch the pitch & critique sessions

Re: Life after Facebook, and the coming “Dark Period”

dave mcclure — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 10:44:54 -0000

(sorry late to the party on this one by about 3 months)

wow, really couldn't disagree more with you on this one bernard.

in fact, looking back over the past 6 years of social networking i'd suggest that Facebook -- particularly with the News Feed rollout in 2006 & launch of Facebook Platform in 2007 -- has just caused us to LEAVE the "Dark Period" of social networking.

i'd likely say we're just entering a brave new wolrd where:
- it ain't just profile pages & friend lists
- the news feed helps me discover cool stuff about people & things that are relevant
- platform & apps create amazing opportunities for users & developers, and...
- every other SNS going gonzo to copy these features & implement their own feeds / platforms with new twists.

monetization uncertainty notwithstanding, seems like the exact opposite of what you describe. there's actually real innovation going on in multiple environments to create new user experience, platform innovation, and 3rd-party developer opportunities.

while i won't disagree there's even more territory to be explored with embedding SNS in the fabric of websites, and with Ning & other vertical SNS solutions & platforms, sure feels to me a lot more like we've just enteted the Renaissance than Dark Ages.

my .02,

- dave mcclure

Re: Gaia Online on Bebo, and other apps that span sites and work great

dave mcclure — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:12:33 -0000

great piece eric. interesting topic, and i agree the "functional thumbnail app" concept makes a lot of sense.

Re: Facebook buying Plaxo?

dave mcclure — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 10:05:28 -0000

hmm. well I'd be rather surprised if so.

Re: YouNoodle offers investors a “start-up predictor”

dave mcclure — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 12:45:13 -0000

just because some data is fuzzy & qualitative in nature doesn't mean it can't be statistically significant and/or meaningful.

as any young male will tell you, the ability to spot a member of the opposite sex at 200 hundred yards away, from behind, wearing a raincoat, etc... is often enough data to make a meaningful assessment & potentially life-changing decision ;)

all that matters is whether the algorithm they're using has enough data to make relevant decisions & gets it right often enough to be more than random. or, at least less random than your average VC ;)

best of luck to them.

Re: Some venture investors heading for the cellars, as larger economic problems loom

dave mcclure — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 11:50:08 -0000

public market activity has less & less impact on startups & (early-stage) VCs, which are more & more driven by acquisitions. fear & greed are correlated in all markets, however for the most part larger company dealmaking isn't based on IPOs or even debt market liquidity. there is an impact if Internet-based advertising & ecommerce experiences pullbacks due to consumer or business recessions, but the overall growth of the online market combined with offline->online budgeting transitions likely offset mostarket downturns, or at least certainly over the long run.

if anything the recent trend has been towards more platform opportunities & new ways to make money, not less. potential consolidation of Msft-yhoo notwithstanding, there are more large companies making money on the internt than ever, and they should continue to see benefit in buying new tech & products from smaller startups to rollout to yheir customers.

in any case, startups that are innovative, prudent, and can generate revenue should do alright. and last time I checked there was no recession in innovation.

Re: Some venture investors heading for the cellars, as larger economic problems loom

dave mcclure — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 11:57:43 -0000

dean: I really take issue with your survey options. only providing "bad" & "worse" options is stacking the deck with negative sentiment that only reinforces the pessimistic slant of the article. you're leading the witness.

I really think a more balanced set of choices should be provided, if you're trying to solicit community opinion. perhaps some of us valley angels be entrepreneurs are a bit more optimistic than the traditional VC community.

my $.02,

Re: Web analytics company Coremetrics raises $60M

dave mcclure — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 19:32:12 -0000

congrats to CoreMetrics... but it shouldn't take $60M (holy crap!) to get to profitability in almost ANY market, much less software analytics where your costs are almost entirely in development & hosting.

the problem isn't that the sector is overfunded or too many companies, the problem is that the companies aren't providing SIMPLE solutions to analyzing web metrics. and people are currently getting BURIED in data, whether or not the product is free (Google Analytics) or costs you your first-born child (Omniture).

there are good solutions to these problems, but they're going to be based on a new generation of web analytics startups that are based on simple metrics & actionable data, leading to explicit decisions for product & marketing to use.

and believe me, these companies won't require $60M to get them built & profitable.

watch this space.

- dave "startup metrics" mcclure

Re: Wigix wants to kill eBay

dave mcclure — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 10:39:49 -0000

hmm. seems like old half.com model slightly re-tooled, plus maybe some SEO as a new twist?

plenty of innovation & opportunity there, but still challenging to get critical mass of buyers. if they can get over that issue, then maybe it gets some legs.

like the idea of pre-defined items tho. odd that more folks didn't copy that model after half.com did it.

Re: Meebo raises $25 million; Matt to eat his hat [Updated]

dave mcclure — Sat, 03 May 2008 01:10:53 -0000

Brian! What is UP!! with the Exclamation! Marks!!!

Maybe you should CONSIDER! that when writers have to CORRECT! themselves, it results in CONTROVERSY!!!! plus MORE! Page! Views!!!!

(& layoff the meth dude... you might live longer.)

Re: What's happening at LinkedIn? Is it getting bought? [Update 3: Or getting funded?]

dave mcclure — Mon, 05 May 2008 10:35:32 -0000

fyi, past tense on developer platform not quite accurate -- it has yet to be rolled out publicly in full production, altho likely coming sometime soon.

also if they're getting acquired then Reid is going to be getting a VERY big check... LinkedIn is profitable & growing.

aside from News, not that many players who can pull the trigger on that one. (Goggle, Yahoo, Microsoft are obvious options).

Re: What's happening at LinkedIn? Is it getting bought? [Update 3: Or getting funded?]

dave mcclure — Tue, 06 May 2008 01:43:07 -0000

@andrew: um, i think you're the fat, ugly, dumb girl at this party my friend -- or at least the dumb one.

>>... hilarious that with that much revenue, LinkedIn can’t turn a profit...

yo doofus: just cuz they're raising money doesn't mean they're losing money. fact is they've been profitable for over a year. they're raising money because they can, and probably so that Reid & a few of their venture investors can liquidate a handsome return on some of their equity.

that said, you can be certain they're not selling that much equity, since the company could very likely go public in next 12 months... and will probably be worth quite a bit more than $1B at that point.

PayPal Mafia conspiracy theorists -- anyone wanna bet they go public at > $1.6B? (the magic # for all PayPal Alumni these days... altho Reid doesn't probably care as much as the rest of the clan).

@andrew: i don't know about you, but maybe you should listen to more harry belafonte, & "make an ugly woman your wife" ;)

Re: Diddit launches surprisingly addictive activity guide

dave mcclure — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:26:44 -0000

nice overall concepts, but i hate the fact that "Signup for Free" is the primary call-to-action... let me DO something fun first (like click on something), and *then* ask for an email address.

"signing up for an account" is not a user benefit. clicking on something fun just might be.

Re: Bye MG Siegler, we’ll miss you — especially your headlines

dave mcclure — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 23:44:01 -0000

TechLemon!
ParisCrunch!

the BitchMeme is Dead... Long Live the BitchMeme!

Re: Tweeting Too Hard: A site for shaming those twittering self-promoters

dave mcclure — Wed, 20 May 2009 08:37:12 -0000

ba-da-BING!

++

Re: Launching Products, MyBlogLog style

dave mcclure — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 13:44:31 -0000

Congrats Ian & MBL team!

looking forward to seeing you folks at Graphing Social Patterns in San Diego next week :)

- dmc

Re: The easiest money is the money you already have

dave mcclure — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:07:29 -0000

great piece jon... completely agree this is money just waiting for people to recover. annoying as hell tho, cuz i rarely make the time to deal with it. sometimes hard to justify spending 10-15 minutes on a phone call to recover $20, but it adds up.

i'd love to find a web service that monitors charges & disputes them for me. wonder if Mint will ever get into this biz.

look forward to seeing you next week at Startup2Startup!

Re: Scott Rafer's Blog

dave mcclure — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 19:51:56 -0000

Rafer I respect your opinion but still disagree. even smart people like simple, and I can't imagine a VC that doesn't want to see demo and/or concept visualization

Re: Scott Rafer's Blog

dave mcclure — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 02:41:51 -0000

however: realize that if you don't send the deck and you're not a priority, u may never get that meeting in person.

i think your story makes my point about designing for a remote audience even more true.

Re: Scott Rafer's Blog

dave mcclure — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 02:42:40 -0000

of course it is.

but why bother even pitching a VC if you're not customizing to that audience?

Re: You Know the Number. Call Us After Your Lousy First Quarter

dave mcclure — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 18:29:37 -0000

raise it? they might even lower it.

as others have suggested, lowering their offer will probably drive the stock price down even further, which should likely make YHOO investors scream bloody murder about closing the deal.

meanwhile, while YHOO mgmt fiddles, Rome burns. jesus effing christ, get this over with before every Yahoo employee worth keeping walks out the door.

this is insanity...

Re: Dave Schappell @ Snowpocalypse 2008 Edition of... :: Hops & Chops :: Startup Happy Hour in Seattle

dave mcclure — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 01:38:35 -0000

dude you really missed your calling in physical comedy / facial expression. somewhere Dane Cook is breathing a big sigh of relief you never made it to Second City or the Comedy Club.

otoh, don't quit yer day job.

Re: Top Underhyped Open Platforms | Sachin Rekhi

dave mcclure — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 19:22:06 -0000

great piece sachin :)

Re: 2007/04/17/widgetbox-2/

dave mcclure — Tue, 17 Apr 2007 13:01:22 -0000

fyi, Ed Anuff from Widgetbox will be giving a demo at the Web 2.0 Expo conference in San Francisco this afternoon, details here:
http://www.web2expo.com/cs/webex2007/view/e_ses...

Re: 2007/04/19/petition-against-alexas-statsaholic-lawsuit/

dave mcclure — Fri, 20 Apr 2007 01:07:46 -0000

signing for petition.

Re: 2007/04/30/youtube-active-share/

dave mcclure — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 14:09:51 -0000

hey i recognize that screenname -- yupandemonium!

that's yu pan, my ex-PayPal soccer buddy extraordinaire. yu pan is an awesome programmer, and twice as dangerous on the playing field ;)

Re: 2007/07/23/paypal-facebook/

dave mcclure — Thu, 26 Jul 2007 23:24:59 -0000

good move michael :)

intellectual property incentives should be aligned with developer community... paypal already monetizes any transactional activity anyway.

when we started the PayPal Developer Network back in 2001, that was an explicit point i always tried to make with the legal team. fortunately, they were open-minded enough to understand, and enabled us to do a lot of creative work with our developer community (& also Microsoft, Macromedia, Adobe, O'Reilly, and many other smaller folks). the result was we grew the universe of apps that integrated PayPal for payment & checkout, and created a richer environment [literally] for everyone.

since PayPal makes money on almost any activity using its APIs, makes a lot of sense to 'open source' the IP rights. hope you folks always keep that philosophy... it's a good one, and it breeds continued developer interest & innovation.

regards & keep on truckin',

- dave mcclure
PayPal alumni ('01-'04)

Re: 2007/08/06/mashable-supports-the-open-friends-format-off/

dave mcclure — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:54:36 -0000

oh c'mon... i call bullshit.

seriously, do we think companies or users care about open standards?

they care about BETTER FUNCTIONALITY.

most users have no fucking clue what open standards are about... nor should they have to.

in a level playing field where there are no dominant forces operating, maybe "open" makes a difference. in most cases, "open" is the response strategy of companies that have beaten to a pulp by other [BETTER] competitors.

users are best served by companies that deliver better features, proprietary or otherwise. mandated open standards are rarely driven by a mass consumer audience, and until or unless they are they're probably not worth paying much attention to.

microformats is a GOOD open standard because it solves problems (and that's how Tantek frames the argument in the first place).

- dave "closed and loving it" mclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: 2007/09/10/stanford-facebook/

dave mcclure — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 12:58:00 -0000

hi sean -

thanks for the article & the feedback.

as BJ mentioned above, the class grades won't be based on just user #'s -- in fact, it's actually one of the key components of the class to focus more on depth of user engagement & not just user #'s. and there are other components to grades including in-class participation, working as a team, etc. the idea is to map to real-world business & startup experiences.

along with our students, i'm sure both BJ & I have much to learn on how best to present the material so that they pickup useful & practical skills, and definitely there will be some missteps as we progress. but that's part of the journey -- crawl before walk, walk before run.

still, we think have a good set of goals in teaching concepts & best practices on product management, product marketing, & app development; using web analytics & user engagment metrics as the "theory", and Facebook Apps as the "lab".

with luck, someone might even learn something ;)

regards & happy to followup,

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: 2007/12/01/facebook-beacon-lies/

dave mcclure — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 21:30:11 -0000

@mr. chad w. smith:

Q1: when you walk into a seafood restaurant, do you complain "fish, fish, FISH! all you guys ever serve here is FISH!!!"?

Q2: did you not notice the subheader of this blog, the one that says "SOCIAL NETWORKING NEWS" (caps are my emphasis, since you obviously need some glasses)

Q3: now given that this blog is about SOCIAL NETWORKING NEWS, and there's even a FRIGGIN' SUBTAB for Facebook here, what part of this blog's branding might have given you the impression that we WOULDN'T be talking about the #1 (or #2 if you insist) social networking platform in the In-Tar-Web?

jesus h christ. you oughta try reading the SIGN above the next bathroom you enter... you probably scare the ladies.

tard.

- dmc

ps - @drupal: stick with the spelling vitriol... caving immediately thereafter just makes you look scatterbrained.

Re: 2007/12/01/facebook-beacon-lies/

dave mcclure — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 21:34:41 -0000

one more time @ chad w smith:

i can't believe you're giving *anyone* shit about editorial guidelines & commentary when you're a PayPerPost shill.

congrats on that PayPerPost blog of the day award... that will really take you places.

(cough)

Re: 2007/12/12/lane-hartwell-bubble-buster-and-party-pooper/

dave mcclure — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 23:58:32 -0000

perfectly fine for lane hartwell to object / set her images private, but i think that's the wrong way to go. much easier to watermark her photos / upload lower res images, if she wants to control distribution w/o attribution. imho, she's more likely to achieve anonymity than appropriate compensation with her current approach. but hey, it's her choice.

that said, i tend to agree with 'miss universe' above.

legal issues aside, doesn't it strike you as a bit odd / ironic that owen thomas isn't the person complaining here? or arrington, om malik, & others whose likenesses were used?

forgive me if i'm overlooking the legal specifics, but i find it a bit weird that lane is aggressively asserting her rights to "her" artwork, when my guess is her subjects have no similar legal recourse to the use of their image in her work. it might be the law, but i'm not surprised many folks find it to be an odd situation that isn't "fair".

Re: 2008/03/14/sarah-lacy/

dave mcclure — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 19:47:08 -0000

well, glad she set us straight & we got that all figured out. obviously, all of us "developers" in the audience were too interested in platform strategy & tech issues, and we were overlooking how important discussion of an IPO that's probably 2-3 years off might be.

then again, maybe the reason sarah didn't hear about any groundbreaking new technology was because she wasn't listening...

Re: 2008/03/27/send-emails-to-the-future/

dave mcclure — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 08:49:58 -0000

ummm... anyone ever heard of an auto-responder?

no need to reinvent the wheel folks.

see www.aweber.com & many many others for more details.

Re: 2008/04/25/dotcom-bust/

dave mcclure — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 16:36:37 -0000

right on target adam.

it's possible the doomsayers who are predicting nuclear winter 2.0 may be correct -- for companies trying to raise money on $500m pre-money valuations. however, most of the smart, young entrepreneurs i know only need $250K-$2M (or less!) to put together a cool new startup. and there's plenty of silicon valley angels willing to fund good ideas on that kind of budget.

the next wave of great startups is more likely to be born from a small amount of money and a large amount of brilliance than vice versa.

Re: 2008/06/29/less-is-more-unlock-the-web/

dave mcclure — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:55:48 -0000

nice piece, altho i wonder if you couldn't have said that in 2 paragraphs instead of 2 pages ;)

Re: Wrestling with CRM and other sales infrastructure

dave mcclure — Sat, 14 Jul 2007 05:48:43 -0000

>>FBML CRM system with central storage of account information? Please?

try lane becker & thor, getsatisfaction.com... maybe?

- dave

Re: Wrapping up our Seed Round

dave mcclure — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 18:24:58 -0000

congrats guys! that's awesome news :)

Re: Events Galore: Starting with Startonomics & WidgetWebExpo

dave mcclure — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 19:18:41 -0000

thanks Scott!

Re: Love

dave mcclure — Sat, 16 May 2009 20:44:56 -0000

fascinating. can't imagine the thoughtfulness & maturity it takes at 15 to dump someone you feel that way about. personally i've been an idiot about the subject well into my 30's, much less my teens. then again, i'm a guy so that's not saying much.

snow globes / tap dancer was also moving.

thanks.

Re: danieltenner.com — Starting up with a friend

dave mcclure — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 07:07:22 -0000

thx for the article... great stuff in here :)

Re: danieltenner.com — Starting up with a friend

dave mcclure — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 07:08:23 -0000

ps - love the T-Rex cartoon :)

Re: 10 Things Every Entrepreneur Must Be Reading

dave mcclure — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 14:57:54 -0000

thanks for the plug jon! much appreciated :)

(and other cool links even more awesome)

Re: marketing bliz meets milton bradley

dave mcclure — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 03:21:23 -0000

hope you guys have a great time with it Alex... please blog on how it goes!

<ul>
<li>dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/</li>
</ul>

Re: SXSW Postgame: Startup Metrics for Pirates: AARRR

dave mcclure — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 02:24:32 -0000

thanks for the summary & link michael. great stuff, and glad you enjoyed our panel! we had fun too :)

Re: Dave McClure, Stop Stalking Me

dave mcclure — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 16:07:40 -0000

boo!

Re: Dave McClure, Stop Stalking Me

dave mcclure — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:28:43 -0000

seriously: thanks for the kudos & appreciate the feedback / humor :)

Re: PR done badly

dave mcclure — Tue, 16 May 2006 01:40:34 -0000

i'd have to agree... making a good pitch means knowing your audience, and in this case that would mean reading Robert's blog and realizing he's going through some major stuff.

doesn't mean the world has stopped and you're not pitching him, but it does mean you need to do your homework and get a better picture of how he'll receive the pitch given the circumstances.

part of "doing good PR to bloggers" right is about building an ongoing relationship with them, and learning more about their lives / reading about their interests... not really any different than any other medium / personalities, but it's a lot easier with bloggers to just read what's happening with them.

- dave mcclure

(ps - robert: best wishes for your mom, also you & the rest of your family. take care)

Re: Buy our house

dave mcclure — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 13:13:01 -0000

so unfortunately robert, that money will pay for an extra bathroom for a house in the bay area... maybe you get a hot tub thrown in for good measure in HMB ;)

welcome to the bay area real estate market!

sigh.

- dmc

Re: TechCrunched!

dave mcclure — Sat, 19 Aug 2006 17:36:36 -0000

nice shots robert :)

Re: Google is missing an important marketing angle: video demos

dave mcclure — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 10:44:12 -0000

excellent post & observation.

we just uploaded the oDesk product demo to YouTube a few weeks ago, and almost instantly it was in the top 10 results on Yahoo for oDesk. darn impressive.

(the quality of the oDesk video is a bit rough on YT; we probably need to improve that... but the results speak for themselves).

nice heads-up robert!

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/
http://www.odesk.com/

Re: The suits vs. the geeks

dave mcclure — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 16:50:18 -0000

totally agree, clothes DO NOT make the man. (nor do jeans either, but we're talking more about the default being suit expectations, not jeans expectations).

Silicon Valley was made mostly by people in plain, everyday clothing who did amazing things; not people in amazing clothing who did plain, everyday things.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Richard Edelman calls…

dave mcclure — Sat, 21 Oct 2006 07:11:47 -0000

accepting responsibility without subsequent accountability -- ie, someone resigning or getting fired, or at the least being censured -- is NOT "responsibility".

interestingly, Edelman's blog comments are now being held for moderated approval... not sure if that was the case prior to the past few days, or whether Richard just wanted the weekend off. the last comment on his blog was posted just after 5pm on friday.

in any case, steve's blog comments are posting, and my response is noted here:
http://www.micropersuasion.com/2006/10/edelman_...

i'm not a PR expert, but i am a blogger... certainly more transparency, disclosure, and *accountability* is needed here.

- dave mcclure

Re: Bill Gates says we’re back in a bubble — kind of

dave mcclure — Mon, 13 Nov 2006 15:36:39 -0000

bill gates declaring bubble? same reason as before... trying to stem the tide of microsoftee defections to startups. fat chance.

microsoft is still a great company, but like others they're moving way too slow. they'll still keep their core markets & products rolling along, and XBOX has a lot of opportunity, but they're moving like a turtle if they want to compete in search & media & advertising.

microsoft needs to open up a checkbook and buy innovation. it's not coming from internal anymore, at least not in any notable ways. IAC (or at least ASK), AMZN, FaceBook, Yahoo, Ebay, would all be interesting moves. probably AMZN or Ask would make the most sense for Bellevue, since Yahoo & eBay are likely too big too swallow and their CEOs have egos too big to close the deal.

in any case, i don't see Gates moving fast enough to compete in this century, and their core biz (Office, NT) are certainly at risk / under attack. they won't die tomorrow, but in 10 years i don't see Microsoft anywhere near as dominant.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Help a San Jose Mercury News columnist blog

dave mcclure — Fri, 08 Dec 2006 19:56:34 -0000

a lot of people think that asking prominent bloggers for links is the way to get started. actually, COMMENTING (or tracbacking) on prominent bloggers posts is a much *better* way to get started... at least you have a higher probability of getting it to happen, since it's under your control.

now, that doesn't mean to go spamming all over everyone's posts to just say "Kilroy wuz here!". however, if you have something interesting to say, then you are adding to the conversation & most folks won't rip you for trying to get attention... unless of course, you really are JUST trying to get attention.

in addition to commenting, if the blogger allows links, try including a link back to a relevant post on your own blog that's you've written about, like this:
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2005/08/sco...

(note: it may be unclear whether some bloggers allow links, whether they allow html, and/or whether URLs get turned into links automatically or not... play around and test it out. not everyone has preview either)

lastly, although most blog comments do accept your URL as part of the signin, i like to include my full name and URL at the bottom of posts just to make it clear. some may think this is overkill, but it also makes it easy for folks to click over to your blog at the end of your comment.

in short, commenting is likely the easiest way to get linked in the blogosphere... and most folks like to get comments, as long as they're not totally annoying or spammy.

(advanced users: apply this technique to TechMeme stories quickly, and watch the results)

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: The geek wedding of the decade

dave mcclure — Sat, 09 Dec 2006 12:13:17 -0000

i'm using pirillowedding unless i hear otherwise...

Re: What a fun wedding!

dave mcclure — Mon, 11 Dec 2006 05:54:17 -0000

very nice vest, mr scoble :)

(and btw, maryam really did look gorjus!)

Re: Spock to open up new privacy debate?

dave mcclure — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 09:56:15 -0000

hi robert... happy to hook you up with folks at Spock to get a deeper dive and check it out before the service launches.

note: there is an early Spock preview on TechCrunch here. more will be revealed next week when the company does their LaunchPad debut at Web 2.0 Expo on Monday.

just to be clear: the information on Spock is initially gathered from publicly accessible info about people already available on the web, in the same way that Google & Yahoo collect info on web pages publicly available on the web.

however, people data found on Spock will be much more clearly & accurately presented than what is currently found on Google or Yahoo or other generic search engines today.

more to come soon...

Re: Best stuff from Web 2.0 Expo

dave mcclure — Sat, 21 Apr 2007 21:31:55 -0000

agree with Dave Schappell... Hornik's presentation was outstanding. hilarious, and educational to boot.

Re: Why Facebook, why now?

dave mcclure — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 21:29:01 -0000

hey robert... nice piece.

my thoughts on facebook here:

* Facebook Advertising Sucks? Nope, CPM Sucks.
(and Widgets = Advertising 2.0)
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/fac...

* Marketing Facebook Apps: All About the FEED, n00bs!
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/mar...

* Facebook: World Domination Ahead
(note to Google & Microsoft -- don't pull a "Semel")
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/06/fac...

in short: it's Facebook's world... we're just living in it.

- dave mcclure

Re: The biggest problem for Facebook’s app platform

dave mcclure — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 05:39:09 -0000

thanks robert... i aspire to smart-ass ;)

btw, try out SkypeMe & TokBox &
ChatterBox.

cool stuff :)

Re: Hate my iPhone and Facebook yammering?

dave mcclure — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 04:46:18 -0000

i totally agree with you Robert.

Facebook & iPhone aren't hype. they're AMAZING products with REAL innovation being used by MILLIONS of people (ok, so maybe iPhone hasn't busted into 7 digits yet, but they will soon).

300+ people were in SF for iPhoneDevCamp, organized spontaneously... many of them flew in for the event.

Facebook has had 3 -- count them THREE -- ad networks launch in the past week (Lookery, FB Exchange, Social Media).

what the hell else is going on that is anywhere NEAR this amazing / engrossing?

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Yahoo’s “accidental” genius

dave mcclure — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 04:48:33 -0000

Bradley & team are good people, smart people, *great* people... hope now they have a lot more room to stretch their legs & do so great stuff :)

Re: Facebook: the new data black hole

dave mcclure — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 02:15:11 -0000

heh. just saw this a few minutes ago; added links back to you + Jeremiah + Duncan Riley on my Facebook isn't AOL, it's Visual Basic post from earlier this evening.

guess we're all drawing the Facebook = Microsoft analogy, especially those of us who used to drink the MSFT developer koolaid :)

those were the daze, eh Robert?

(the SDForum Visual Basic SIG still lives on in a special little place in my Borg heart ;)

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: The shirt of the week

dave mcclure — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 20:47:35 -0000

... had to dig that out of the closet for Noah's CommunityNext: VIRAL conference, but seems it was well worth it ;)

thanks Robert & Jeremiah for the t-shirt pimping!

Re: VC looks behind the numbers of social networks

dave mcclure — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 03:49:59 -0000

good post by Jeremy, however i still think user engagement metrics need to be overhauled.

User Engagement is a Depth, not a Breadth, Metric.
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/use...

Re: Crowdsourcing the answer to “what conference to attend?”

dave mcclure — Mon, 30 Jul 2007 12:28:32 -0000

only thing is Upcoming doesn't always give me enough advance information to make decisions 3-6 months in advance... what is probably a better way to check it out is to look at *last* year's Upcoming entries for those confs, and see who was signed up to attend.

(unfortunately, i always have trouble using the Upcoming UI to look up past events -- Andy: can you fix that pleez? ;)

Re: I am not live streaming Milan’s birth

dave mcclure — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 01:58:54 -0000

don't know if i was first, but i did get away with it back in january:
http://twitter.com/davemc500hats/statuses/2828083

(then again, my wife didn't know what i was doing, and i didn't bother explaining it in detail ;)

Re: I am not live streaming Milan’s birth

dave mcclure — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:01:57 -0000

ok, so i got maggie beat on the timeline by a monht, but that's just damn impressive that she did it herself.

Re: How many Facebook conferences do we need?

dave mcclure — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 11:44:55 -0000

hey robert, thanks for the mention :)

however, i think the link you meant to post is:
http://GraphingSocial.com

(would you mind changing that when you get a sec?)

looking forward to hearing more about your Starfish model too...

- dave

Re: How many Facebook conferences do we need?

dave mcclure — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 15:57:53 -0000

actually i think there's no need to declare one better than the other... we both have different & cool things to offer.

personally, i think noah & andrew have a great lineup of topics & speakers. given how much interest there is in the market, i bet we'll both end up with a full house (& in fact i've already heard from a lot of folks planning to come to CommunityNext & GSP).

as with most times when i'm given a choice between two great options -- just say yes to both ;)

- dmc

Re: How many Facebook conferences do we need?

dave mcclure — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 02:34:52 -0000

@davidd: um... okay, so feel free to go do a conference on organizational change management. maybe that will be a big seller for folks wearing dark blue suits.

meanwhile, we'll focus on social networking platforms like facebook that are growing @ 300+% per year.

Re: New Facebook course at Stanford University

dave mcclure — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 16:04:58 -0000

just to clarify: altho it is a "Facebook class", the concepts we're aiming to present on user engagement & metrics are equally applicable to product managers, product marketers, & app developers working on traditional websites & applications, as much as Facebook.

the reason we chose Facebook as our "lab" however, was based on the ability to get something out there very quickly & to see results with users right away.

note we'll also be using Google Analytics throughout the course to collect & measure user engagement metrics & apply those to how features are designed, developed, & marketed via the Facebook Apps the students create.

it will be a journey, but it should be a fun one!

- dave mc

Re: The hottest class at Stanford

dave mcclure — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 10:36:43 -0000

thanks for the link Robert... matt is a really amazingly bright guy. and there are several others in the class who are also very talented. i have a feeling i'm going to end up learning more from them than vice versa! but regardless, it's going to be a really fun semester working with them :)

see you at the show!

Re: Kara Swisher is right about Facebook apps (new Kyte.tv player)

dave mcclure — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 16:25:18 -0000

Robert: FYI, Graphing Social *Patterns*, not "Media"...

But regardless thx for blogging the AppNite winners!

Re: Can’t get a word in edgewise on this panel…

dave mcclure — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 19:43:41 -0000

yeah, that really was a FUN panel... we should do that again sometime :)

- dave

(minor change: Graphing Social *Patterns*, not Media, conf)

http://graphingsocial.com/

Re: EXCLUSIVE: Google CEO and MySpace CEO on video

dave mcclure — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 14:26:26 -0000

nice job robert... that's a pretty cool video exclusive ;)

Re: Battelle’s prediction scorecard for 2007

dave mcclure — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 21:49:26 -0000

more important than changing the executive leadership is changing the bureaucratic culture at eBay.

i'm easily swayed that Meg / others may choose to step aside in the near future to pursue other interests, however i'm less convinced any such changes will lead to a cultural shakeup that would enable them to move more quickly.

eBay does one thing right that Yahoo doesn't -- they have a big open checkbook to buy the innovation they're not driving internally. but that's still no excuse for not doing more to allow intrapreneurship at the mothership (or the satellite subsidiaries).

there's still plenty of fire in the belly over there, and plenty of opportunity in the platforms of eBay, PayPal, & Skype... but the prison bars of powerpoint and teleconferences are holding a thousand flowers hostage.

sniff, sniff.

- dave "paypal developer network" mcclure

Re: Steal my content please, Part II

dave mcclure — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 17:28:26 -0000

@neil: your repeated use of the word 'should' isn't helpful, and doesn't scale. you *should* drive 55 miles per hour too, but if 90% of humanity is driving 65-70 and the other 10% is going even faster, how do you apply the legal penalty in any reasonable fashion?

in general, lawyers are a means of last resort, not a primary solution. artists "should" probably be hiring web marketing consultants to promote their work, not lawyers to "protect" it by threatening to sue people.

to paraphrase your last point: if you hire a lawyer instead of a marketer / salesperson, don't whine when you get lawsuits & expenses instead of customers & revenue.

Re: My Crunchies Votes

dave mcclure — Sat, 22 Dec 2007 13:12:57 -0000

i'm a little disappointed there wasn't more filtering on what kind of companies count as "startups". companies with $5-7M in funding doesn't bother me so much (that's just an A round), but companies with over $10M / two institutional rounds of funding that have been around for 2-3+ years or more probably shouldn't be on the list. Digg, LinkedIn, Facebook, Wordpress are companies that might have made the list 3-5 years ago, but imho shouldn't be included in a "startup" awards contest.

Re: The shy Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook

dave mcclure — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 10:33:30 -0000

great stuff Robert... really felt like I was walking along together with you & mark :)

I've had that informal kind of chat once before with him, and I agree he's a pretty amazing if a bit shy individual. glad to hear he plans to do more communication & blogging in he future too.

have fun in Davos & hope you can join us to speak @Graphing Social Patterns conf in San Diego March 3-4! should be a Facebook / Google / MySpace social networking platform geekfest :)

- dave mc

Re: Can anyone stop this man?

dave mcclure — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 11:41:10 -0000

um, in a word: oops.

Re: Chris Messina nails it

dave mcclure — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:33:16 -0000

a bit too trite i think... Facebook is hardly Soviet Russia. perhaps China, with a technical lead. but i think the analogies fall down for many other reasons.

regardless you mention all the other things Facebook is doing "nicer"... it's because they are building on top of their own platform, which they have designed for just such purposes.

while i find both "gated" & ungated communities useful -- i prefer platform to gated actually -- Facebook is moving a lot faster than most other competitors, which wouldn't appear to map to the central planning analogy you mention.

just because it doesn't suit your purposes Robert doesn't mean it's backward & closed. Windows didn't suit everyone as well as Linux either, but somehow on the desktop it seemed to do ok for 10-15 years... and created a lot of value for plenty of people in the ecosystem as well.

Re: Microsoft’s 320 million anti-Google weapons

dave mcclure — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:31:06 -0000

nice piece Robert.

i wrote a few similar thoughts a few weeks back on this as well, altho the opportunity isn't limited to just Microsoft; it's also something Yahoo, AOL, or even Google itself could implement:

http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/05/mem...

“Memo to Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, & AOL: How to Turn 500M email logins into Facebook Platform & a Crapload of Revenue”

Re: The Silicon Valley VC Disease

dave mcclure — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:27:41 -0000

1) "Hornik", no 'c'.

2) in general, August Capital is a big fund, later-stage VC. August / Hornik can afford to be wrong for about 6-12 months longer than Jeff, then change his mind and do the Series A round for Tapulous / others. witness a similar situation last summer re: funding for FB apps, only a few of which were funded by VCs (who may now be regretting those deals).

3) VCs have been known to give the head-fake, saying one thing while investing in another. typically i take Mr. Hornik at his word more than most, but i'm just sayin'...

Re: The passionates vs. the non passionates

dave mcclure — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:38:59 -0000

love this post Robert :)

THAT is the Passion I remember when I met you back at the SDForum Visual Basic SIG in '95... and I STILL love your Fire!

awesome, awesome, awesome.

Scobleizer++

Re: Spock Hopes to Make Your Face the Final Frontier

dave mcclure — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 01:42:25 -0000

hey andy -

if you'll be in town for Web 2.0 Expo next week ping me and we can chat... otherwise drop me an email and i'd be happy to connect you with Spock folks to take a test drive. i'm an advisor for the company and they're just starting to open up the private beta next week.

(and i also have the same issue with name-o-nyms... there are several dave mcclures out there, even a few with my same middle initial. profile collision is a bitch, ain't it? ;)

Re: The Problem With Measuring Time Spent on a Web Site

dave mcclure — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 14:02:32 -0000

some combination of regular clicks (w/o long delay between( + time spent on site is probably much better metric than page vies.

while it's not perfect, it's a lot more accurate than sites that engineer page refreshes or split data & behavior across multiple pages just to pimp the page views.

clicks or time or both are likely pretty close to the elusive "attention" metric.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Sex and the City

dave mcclure — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:23:59 -0000

hmm.. i think you should use this background on your blog, it's nice ;)

(or if you want use a brown version to emphasize chocolate / desi-ness... but either way, the color is better!)

Re: Facebook Monetization: Lessons From Google

dave mcclure — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 15:00:02 -0000

exxxxxaactly.

http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/07/fac...

- dave mcclure

Re: Facebook Is NOT For Business

dave mcclure — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:56:41 -0000

wow scott... really have to completely disagree with your analysis here. where do i begin?

i'll keep it brief (you can read my blog for more detailed blather & rebuttal):

Facebook isn't "for college kids", it's based on whomever i friend/invite into my network. Thus, it's perfectly reasonable for Facebook to be "about business" if the people in my network are about business... particularly if my network is a work network, and my friends are my business colleagues.

While they may choose to share personal info rather than / in addition to business info on Facebook, keeping in touch with my work & business colleagues and understanding what their behaviors are is EXACTLY what i want to know about... for business.

in my Facebook network, i probably already have over 40-50 VCs, 100+ geeks & entrepreneurs, another 40-50 execs & notable folks at Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Amazon, eBay, MySpace, and other top-tier internet platforms & startups.

while i wouldn't say Facebook has replaced LinkedIn as my primary business networking platform of choice, there's certainly a TON of valuable info for me that's business-focused, and i bet i can get in touch with anyone in Silicon Valley i want using FB as well as LinkedIn.

i won't go into any more detail than this, but characterizing the *functionality* of Facebook as "non-business" is just so far off the mark... all i can say is you need to let us know what you've been smoking so we can all get some too.

as with your diet, so goes your social network... you are what you eat.

- dave "facebook fanboy & sycophant" mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: Facebook’s Core College Student Users Laugh At Attempts To Use It For Business

dave mcclure — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 23:12:31 -0000

interesting use of one data point to provide the proof for a wide-ranging empirical assertion.

i guess as a comparison, i can give you 90 other data points from students in the Facebook Apps class i'm teaching at Stanford this fall who would offer a contrary perspective. they have formed 30 teams of 3 to build apps and learn about using Facebook as an launchpad for startup entrepreneurship. i doubt any of them feel like they're wasting their time, as you suggest.

regardless whether there is one (Facebook) or many (Google, MySpace, LinkedIn, etc) environments for creating socially-aware applications, i have no doubt such platforms will provide great utility for both personal- & business-related functions.

your pessimism on the subject notwithstanding, i'd also say the ~50 or so startups who've built Facebook apps in the past 6 months, and have acquired >1M total users or >100K daily active users are also not wasting their time. while many of those apps may be playful or focused on entertainment that seems "non-business", the companies who are creating them are driving for very real business objectives, and are funded by VCs who expect real returns on their capital.

lastly, the continued focus on a college demographic is telling last year's story -- usage in the over 25 age group is growing rapidly and in the UK and Canada (where Facebook didn't start in the college demographic) the population is fairly evenly distributed amone age groups 15-45.

you can continue to beat the horse for as long as it drives readership, but the horse you are beating is headed for the glue factory. meanwhile while you write their epitaph, there are plenty of healthy thoroughbreds out racing around the track.

regards,

- dave mcclure
http://GraphingSocial.com
http://500hats.typepad.com

Re: Facebook’s Core College Student Users Laugh At Attempts To Use It For Business

dave mcclure — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 23:50:08 -0000

@Scott:

ok, so my apologies if i misinterpreted your remarks above — to me, it sounded like you were stating a pessimistic view of the future opportunity for companies that were making bets on the Facebook application platform economy.

on the other hand, while i’d agree with you there are MANY opportunities for other social networks & social application platforms to be successful, i don’t think that means that Facebook is exclusive to business networking.

while i’m still a big LinkedIn fan, i’ve also seen a ton of my communications and relationships with Silicon Valley VCs, angels, entrepreneurs & geeks move into the Facebook arena.

in any case, i guess your mileage may vary.

peace out,

- dmc

Re: Facebook’s Core College Student Users Laugh At Attempts To Use It For Business

dave mcclure — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 23:52:37 -0000

sorry, in #12 2nd paragraph meant to say “Facebook is exclusive to personal social networking” instead of “Facebook is exclusive to business networking”.

Re: Creating Customized Social Networking Applications For Business

dave mcclure — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 18:11:06 -0000

glad you finally saw the light, Scott!

so when are you implementing Beacon?

;)

Re: JPMorgan Buys Bear Stearns: Following A Breaking News Story On The Web

dave mcclure — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 08:40:13 -0000

nice summary scott & great anaysis. particulary like the meta-story told in pictures & headlines. I once spoke to Gabe about other topic-specific versions of Techmeme for Finance, etc but currently his efforts indicate only categories with lot of cross-linked blogs work well (politics, gossip, sports seem to do ok based on his current projects, but tech works best for now).

anyway great post :)

Re: Takeaways from Community Next

dave mcclure — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 06:59:40 -0000

i don't know if there's a 'formula' for success, but i think a few App developers (including noah) have figured out how to consistently produce winning apps. whether or not it's a formula, they've got something that appears to be repeatable. several of the larger mini-empires within Facebook (Slide, RockYou, others) are aggregating a stable of apps, either by building or buying them.

congrats to noah & andrew for a great conference... i overheard more than one app developer saying it was one of the best events they'd attended and well worth the price of admission. noah's definitely building a solid rep for the CommunityNext brand.

- dave mc

Re: How Do You Network on Different Social Sites?

dave mcclure — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 07:59:36 -0000

wow... this is some awesome stuff. great post!

i'm re-sharing this on Facebook right now :)

Re: Best Internet Marketing Blog Posts of 2007

dave mcclure — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 16:33:50 -0000

sigh. thanks for stealing the next 3 months of my life reading your darn list!

(awesome awesome stuff :)

Re: Learning to Make Door Desks

dave mcclure — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 12:05:23 -0000

um... so are you running an internet startup, or shop class?

;)

Re: Let’s tag that $700K as ‘funding’

dave mcclure — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 18:33:36 -0000

congrats jason & team... nice folks to have on board :)

Re: A Web 2.0 Conference Day – Wrap Up

dave mcclure — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 00:41:59 -0000

great writeup lee, and awesome photos!

enjoyed hanging out with you during the conference & hope to catchup again sometime... perhaps for Graphing Social Patterns East in DC in June.

(ps - i love photo posts -- please keep 'em coming :)

- dave mcclure

Re: Social Graph Platform Wars: Jedi Widgets

dave mcclure — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 15:16:09 -0000

the farce is strong in this one :)

(nice post & thanks for the link)

- darth mcclure

Re: Business Social Network LinkedIn Gets $12 Million Funding

dave mcclure — Mon, 29 Jan 2007 17:23:04 -0000

rafat: "when it doesn't"...? or did you mean "if it doesn't"?

"when" sounds like you have an opinion on that matter... if so, please elaborate.

Re: Social Network Meetup Gets New Funding From USV

dave mcclure — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 22:32:04 -0000

any numbers whatsoever on this? revenue, profitability, valuation?

come on guys... do a little research here, or at least some informed guessing.

see my comments on SAI:
http://tinyurl.com/5u32mc

Re: 30 photos from Asia

dave mcclure — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:08:24 -0000

awesome photos adrian!

Re: Inside North Korea During The Nuclear Standoff

dave mcclure — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:29:54 -0000

absolutely amazing stuff adrian... kudos. too bad on the censorship / limited content filter, but still impressive nonetheless.

the shots of you in the kim jung il outfit, and in front of the window with the soldiers in the DMZ are great :)

Re: 30 photos from Asia

dave mcclure — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:08:24 -0000

awesome photos adrian!

Re: Inside North Korea During The Nuclear Standoff

dave mcclure — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:29:54 -0000

Re: What's next?

dave mcclure — Tue, 30 Jan 2007 00:19:11 -0000

interesting post brad :)

i'd agree, the underlying tech stack probably matters only in terms of cost (both to buy and also to manage, tho likely more focus on the latter).

what's next?

what else matters?

well, if we're not talking about machine-enabled functionality, i'd still say these 3 things matter for consumer-facing services:

- dave mcclure

http://500hats.typepad.com

Re: Some Vision for Silicon Valley

dave mcclure — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 16:52:40 -0000

loved your intro speech for Walt -- you were funny as hell. short of Walt himself, you were the highlight of the evening :)

(& noah & i enjoyed meeting you & megan too. hope we can show you guys Mint.com sometime soon)

- dave mcclure
http://mint.com/
http://500hats.typepad.com/

Re: 15 Billion More Reasons to Worry About Facebook

dave mcclure — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 12:47:17 -0000

kara: i respect your opinion, but i think in this case your familiarity with Google (& their cashflow) is breeding unnecessary contempt for Facebook.

while an acquisition at $10-15B without Facebook having defined a long-term monetization strategy might be irrationally exuberant, an investment of $500M that simply values the company at $10-15B is not such a huge risk, for either Microsoft or Google (or in fact, at $500M, even for Yahoo). that's chump change for a piece of the Facebook action.

while you might suggest they could do better things with the cash, continuing to have the inside track on the fastest-growing service in a target demographic isn't without value. and at the moment, neither company has demonstrated they have a clue as to how to build a social platform (altho Google professes to be building a competitive alternative).

furthermore, the real alternative "buyer" for either MSFT or GOOG's head isn't each other, but rather, the retail investor's valuation of Facebook if/when they IPO. noting the previous market insanity surrounding Google's IPO a few years back, and the subsequent rocketship Google was for the next 2-3 years, most retail investors have unfortunately forgotten the lessons of the dot-com bust -- they're going to pile into any Facebook IPO thinking this is Google 2.0 all over again. they might be irrational, but there's no question they'll be similarly bullish for a Facebook IPO.

given that potential future scenario, Microsoft or Google would likely be foolish not to get in the game now, if they ever want to get in. the price will likely only go up.

altho i was thinking acquisition at the time i wrote this post back in June, the same philosophy still applies to an investment... only moreso:

Facebook: World Domination Ahead
(note to GOOG/MSFT: don't pull a "Semel")
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/06/fac...

in any case, while there is certainly exuberance in the valley these days, i'm not so sure it's irrational. only time will tell.

- dave mcclure
http://500hats.typepad.com
http://GraphingSocial.com

Re: More on the Facebook Hype--Oops, I Mean Promise

dave mcclure — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 15:35:42 -0000

hey Kara -

agreed on the long-term hype risk, but my point was more tactically about whether Google or Microsoft would end up paying more later in next 12-24 months, and/or after an upcoming IPO. again my guess is it's cheaper for them to buy in now than later.

but regardless, thanks for including my comment in the discussion... it's a pretty interesting conversation.

and for those interested in more of this stuff, please come to our upcoming conference on Facebook & social networking Oct 7-9th in San Jose:
Graphing Social Patterns:
The Business & Technology of Facebook
http://graphingsocial.com

(shameless, shameless plug... did i mention how awesome D is/was? ;) )

regards & hope you can join us too kara,

- dave mcclure

Re: Using MY Kids to Raise Money for the Kids at DonorsChoose.org!

dave mcclure — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 04:30:41 -0000

you really need to make sure your kids know how you make a living ;)

but it worked. donating now.

Re: The Children's Hour: Facebook Apps Are for Toddlers (There, We Said It)

dave mcclure — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 19:46:31 -0000

hey kara -

interesting piece, and i can understand your opinion / perspective.

still, i think you're measuring the impact of the platform when it's just barely into the top of the 1st inning of a baseball game.

platform has been out for all of ~5 months, and while adoption for many of these apps are impressive for that short a timeframe, the overall maturity of the apps is still fairly limited.

in addition, i think you could argue the case that there are 3 basic types of apps:
1) distribution / acquisition apps
2) engagement / retention apps
3) monetization apps

for most companies, they are still working on types #1 and #2 -- and in fact, for our class at Stanford, those are the 2 major app assignments we're having our students work on during the semester.

even Slide itself, the biggest of the FB app companies, they've just in the past few months announced a focus around engagement and monetization over distribution, and even for Facebook itself you could suggest they just recently shifted to optimizing for engagement when they moved to a daily user metric last month.

so in summary -- are most of the apps very lightweight, distribution focused, and relatively "useless" for productivity work? absolutely. but they're GREAT for entertainment & acquisition.

HOWEVER, that DOES NOT mean there aren't innings 4-6 that are focused on engagement, nor innings 7-9 that focus on monetization. we're just in the early stages of the game, and right now developers are -- probably rightfully so -- focusing on acquisition... at least while the market is growing so damn fast.

in the near term, developers are / will be transitioning to focus on engagement, and in the future -- perhaps AFTER Facebook implements a standard checkout / payment mechanism -- on monetization.

don't misinterpret the actions of the starting pitcher as the same strategy for the setup man or the closer.

my .02,

- dave mcclure
www.graphingsocial.com
www.500hats.com

Re: The Children's Hour: Facebook Apps Are for Toddlers (There, We Said It)

dave mcclure — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 23:11:06 -0000

@John - your usage may have tapered, but the overall platform stats indicate that you are definitely in the minority.

at our Graphing Social Patterns conference today,
according to Dave Morin, Sr Platform Manager @ Facebook, recent stats indicate that Facebook itself is growing at about 1.1% per day, or 3% per week. Facebook App growth is almost double that, around 2% per day or 6-7% per week. while you may be one data point, the empirical sample says otherwise.

and the market activity also suggests otherwise too. developers are voting with their feet to jump onto the FB platform, as are users that continue to grow the demographic outside the original college one.

and your example above of IT managers blocking usage in corp environments IS EXACTLY THE PROOF that those users DO feel it's valuable -- so much so, they're actually willing to risk negative occupational repercussions in order to keep doing so. if that's not an example of incredible user loyalty and potential for future value, then i don't know what the hell is.

how does facebook actually help an enterprise? there are several ways... communication, groups, events, etc. whether or not it's the perfect vehicle (or an authorized one) is perhaps debatable, but the fact that corporations are BANNING usage drives home the point that those folks certainly think it's valuable.

anyway, i'm beating a dead horse here. measuring value before platform maturity is achieved is naive.

while you may not suggest that Roger Federer was worth millions of dollars at age 15 or 16, certainly the potential for future success was perceived by many. asserting that his athletic immaturity at that age was a likely indicator of future success would have been a huge mistake.

- dmc

Re: The Children's Hour: Facebook Apps Are for Toddlers (There, We Said It)

dave mcclure — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 11:55:09 -0000

John: i won't ignore that some folks have had a momentary infatuation with FB & FB apps, or even that some have had a negative experience.

however, even your *multiple* data points aside, the numbers in aggregate do not back up your position... at all. the overwhelming evidence from the stats point to a huge success that continues to grow.

altho i disagree with her analysis, kara's point about useless apps is a much easier position to argue than yours about waning activity.

you can ignore the music if you want, but according to the #'s, the volume is unquestionably getting LOUDER.

Re: The Children's Hour: Facebook Apps Are for Toddlers (There, We Said It)

dave mcclure — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 03:32:12 -0000

@shri: wonderful to see you in the comments m'dear!) (guess Twenty20 must be over ;)

now THIS is exactly the conversation we should be having -- cohort analysis and retention decay (or not) -- these are much better ways to analyze whether we're seeing signs of success.

@john: big growing numbers may not equal sustainability, but given the option i'll take big growing #'s over little shrinking #'s any day of the week my friend.

"when CIOs notice the same thing i did" isn't relevant if you & those CIOs & kara are in the minority.

utility is in the mouse of the beholder, and right now the aggregate # of clicks say that those Apps ARE valuable. your opinion, while still valid, is not one held in majority.

again, i'll state my strong opinion: the apps you & kara are describing as "useless" are viewed as "fun & entertaining" by the majority of users. furthermore, these are "customer acquisition" apps that will be followed by "engagement & retention apps" followed by "monetization apps".

in the meantime, here's to flinging poo, throwing food, and sending a Boozemail your way :)

- dave "childishness is next to godliness" mcclure

Re: Facebook Funding: A Yahoo Bovine Update?

dave mcclure — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 11:31:55 -0000

i'm sure many folks might be interested in taking some winnings off the table... in fact,that way makes it easier to keep aiming high(er).

Re: The Children's Crusade Strikes Back at Not-a-Teenager (aka Really Old Lady) BoomTown

dave mcclure — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 11:30:59 -0000

hey kara -

the discussion got lively, altho i believe the point i was trying to make got lost in the teenager / ridiculous / etc bashing...

other panelist soundbites aside, what i was trying to draw out was that the current set of apps were 'simple' because they were primarily focusing on user acquisition, and give that as the [initial] target, the apps are logically created to be fairly simple.

anyway, it was an interesting topic & i hope you didn't feel sideswiped by lance or keith's rebuttal. wasn't meant as an opportunity for potshots.

(but still nice use of hannah montana regardless ;)

- dave mc

ps - lunch @ web 2.0?

Re: The Children's Crusade Strikes Back at Not-a-Teenager (aka Really Old Lady) BoomTown

dave mcclure — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 18:17:56 -0000

actually i'd echo Joshua's remarks.

iLike, Movies (by Flixster), and iRead are all great examples of very deep, engaging, useful apps that are likely monetizable for several volume categories in music, movies, & books.

these 3 apps aren't simplistic, flippant, or useless. and they may not generated revenue directly (altho i bet they do), but likely are adding deep demographing profiling data on user segments that will likely drive lead-gen & purchase.

kara: have you tried them? what say you? don't these qualify as productive/useful, even if they're in the leisure entertainment category?

- dave

Re: The Children's Crusade Strikes Back at Not-a-Teenager (aka Really Old Lady) BoomTown

dave mcclure — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 18:20:56 -0000

(ps - sorry i can't spell or proofread my comments. sheesh)

Re: Memo to Mark: BoomTown Is Baaaack and We're Still Dubious!

dave mcclure — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 18:23:36 -0000

high valuation? sure.

but don't think for a second that Google wouldn't have taken those terms as well if they could have gotten them.

for once, the shoe was one on the other foot -- Google was Facebook's stalking horse, and they always intended to do the deal with MSFT given the same terms.

whether or not they can prove out the valuation, both Google and Microsoft were ready to value it at $15B, and "hedge-tards" or not (love that handle), there were multiple folks ready to pay up.

Kara: maybe you should go back to the shed on this one & re-think. you're right the valuation is aggressive, but you're dead wrong that it's dubious or ridiculous. continuing to deny there's some "there" there is short-sighted.

they may be toy apps right now, but this is just the beginning of the revolution.

Re: Kara Visits Founders Fund's Peter Thiel

dave mcclure — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 11:36:17 -0000

[disclosure: i used to work at PayPal from 2001-2004]

@Marek: you've got a few errors there, and you're also missing the point.

PayPal & X.com merged, and while Elon certainly brought a lot of capital to the table, PayPal also had many assets as well (i believe the deal was a 55-45 almost merger of equals, with X getting the slightly larger stake). In hindsight, PayPal's business model & payments infrastructure were likely the more beneficial factor to the company's later success, rather than X.com's banking model, Elon's other contributions notwithstanding.

Furthermore, given the many payment companies in the space, don't you think more credit should be given to the company that survived, made money, & eventually dominated the space over any of the earlier entrants? As they say, excellence is all about 2% inspiration & 98% perspiration.

I think the does of reality goes more like this: PayPal was both innovative & practical, and changed its business model several times to eventually become the leader in the space. Other companies failed to match them, and fell by the wayside. Peter along with others at PayPal deserves a hell of lot of credit for guiding the company to its eventual IPO & acquisition.

- dave mcclure

Re: And the Zuckerberg-Bashing Begins...

dave mcclure — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 02:25:20 -0000

sorry, they may have faceplanted on Beacon, but josh's post was way over the top and far from "cogent" IMHO.

I hardly think 50m users, 100%+ growth rate, & $300m in cash = "jumped the shark".

bad hair day? maybe.

devoured by sharks? don't think so.

Re: And the Zuckerberg-Bashing Begins...

dave mcclure — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 21:44:55 -0000

@john minnihan:

Netscape faceplanted because they were trying to charge for something Microsoft gave away for free, and because they had no effing clue that a portal and/or search might be valuable. it certainly wasn't because of privacy, hubris, or bad press.

if Facebook stalls it will be because of limited ability to monetize, not privacy issues.

while i admit there's a reason to manage PR -- and in particular, to manage bad PR -- most of the time the press overvalues its own importance.

in general, the press REPORTS the news, they don't MAKE the news.

there are exceptions, but this isn't one of them.

Re: Love--and Being a CEO--Means Always Having to Say You're Sorry

dave mcclure — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 23:41:53 -0000

(nice parker brothers graphic... i appreciate you going the extra mile for those little extra touches ;)

i tend to agree with you they could have managed this better, and probably should have been faster on the response.

and as Om points out, there might still be a technical / legal issue for them to deal with around transmitting user info appropriately.

but when all is said & done, the larger issue for facebook is still going to be monetization, not privacy.

they can always dial up or down the privacy settings on Beacon, and eventually arrive at something that satisfies the user community & their advertisers (if not always the press).

but it's not going to be as easy to dial up the inventory of Feed stories from external sites if the Beacon settings are now truly opt-in (kind of).

whether or not any of this has an impact on monetization remains to be seen, but i gotta think they've got a lot more to figure out in that category.

Re: Venture Summit: Has the Internet Jumped the Shark?

dave mcclure — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 11:01:02 -0000

Q: internet jumped the shark?
A: nope, not yet.

Q: 2nd life jumped the shark?
A: quite possibly

Re: Have Yourself a Jerry Little Christmas Now?

dave mcclure — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 01:38:47 -0000

kara, you need to go stalk jerry in woodside. go buy him a nice holiday ham at Roberts Market & you might even run into him in the aisle.

(or gmaybe o take bradley horowitz or mike speiser out to lunch. one of them might talk off the record.)

nice pic of you & zuck. you *do* look drunker than he does, by far ;)

Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Learned to Love the Blog: Goodbye Dead Trees!

dave mcclure — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 14:54:20 -0000

kara: you *do* realize owen & team won't be doing 100-word summaries anymore, now that Denton put the page-views smackdown on them?

(cheers & hope Rupert doesn't buy Gawker anytime soon ;)

Re: Free the Scoble 5,000!!

dave mcclure — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:15:50 -0000

sorry Kara, chris finke is right. this is completely black & white issue. Scoble (& more importantly Plaxo) violated FB TOS.

only gray area is whether FB should have put their foot down more gracefully if they knew it was Scoble, to avoid the same PR storm you & he & others are brewing up right now.

this was complete trojan horse to try to "prove" the data ownership / portability issue -- but while that argument might hold water from other perspectives, busting TOS & violating *OTHER* user's email privacy at the same time puts Scoble / Plaxo clearly in the wrong here.

perhaps right war, but wrong battle.

Re: Free the Scoble 5,000!!

dave mcclure — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:16:58 -0000

(all that aside, love the headline dahling ;)

Re: MicroHoo? YaBay? No Deal!

dave mcclure — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 08:27:07 -0000

you're prob right, tho I kinda wish u weren't ... all 3 companies could use a kick in the ass to compete more effectively.

meg's had a free ride from shareholders for far too long. accountability at all 3 companies is sorely absent aside from Semel's ouster about 2 years late.

seriously I'm surprised there's not more board & shareholder inquiry about the leadership (or lack thereof), or failing that a more aggressive stance on dividends to return cash to investrs thats not being used effectively. if anything I'd want to see more aggressive M&A since the innovation clearly isn't happening internally. at least Skype & other deals were a respectable attempt to move the needle I guess.

Re: "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles"

dave mcclure — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:19:56 -0000

yeah, i caught the pilot & the first episode... not bad, altho don't know if it's sticky / different enough to steal my attention from Heroes or Battlestar.

the tension feels a bit too manufactured, and the FX aren't that much more amazing than other tech- / fantasy-based TV series.

(that said, the anticipation of sex with a robot -- hey, another Battlestar ripoff! -- could provide some interest for a bit ;)

Re: For Yahoo, It Seems, It's Always Groundhog Day

dave mcclure — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 05:37:43 -0000

i'm with kara on this one.

continued hard analysis & introspection for the #1 web property by traffic -- and very much *not* #1 by other measures -- would seem to be quite appropriate and relevant. particularly during their earnings week.

you guys want to find more relevant topics for your world, maybe you should be reading LookingGlassDaily.com

seriously.

Re: Chatty Zuckerberg Tells All About Facebook Finances

dave mcclure — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 23:28:08 -0000

hey kara, i'm not an accountant, but does negative cashflow matter that much if you've got that much cash around? that's just balance sheet structuring, isn't it? (they could certainly borrow to finance the negative cashflow, if EBITDA is $50M).

and isn't EBITDA is a much better measure of financial health for a company than cashflow anyway?

$50M positive EBITDA is pretty damn good for a 4-year old company with a toddler CEO at the helm, don't you think?

;)

Re: Chatty Zuckerberg Tells All About Facebook Finances

dave mcclure — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 12:50:54 -0000

@josh: i wasn't making any comment on whether i would be an INVESTOR in the company, however if they've got a $50B positive EBITDA i'd be MORE than happy as a banker to be a DEBTOR for the company, and help them finance a loan to handle their cashflow.

i understand cash flow quite well my friend, but obviously you don't understand finance if you don't think they can restructure that negative cashflow away in a heartbeat.

Kara's post makes too much of structural finance issues, and not enough of the positive EBITDA.

if you want to argue the multiple is too large as an investor, that's a reasonable point to argue... but that wasn't the issue raised by Kara in the post, nor by me in my comment.

that said, would i be an investor at $15B? mmm... i'm probably neutral to slightly pessimistic at that price. i'm a buyer north of $5B, possibly up to $10B. and if they hit the targets on 2008 revenue, i'd probably be a buyer at $15B in another year.

Re: Chatty Zuckerberg Tells All About Facebook Finances

dave mcclure — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 12:53:37 -0000

followup: just to be clear, capex spending that has a negative effect on cashflow is amortizable, and ISN'T the same as a loss that affects cashflow negatively.

that was the point i was making.

free cashflow generated from operations IS an interesting item to consider, but the Capex spending shouldn't be part of that calc.

Re: Chatty Zuckerberg Tells All About Facebook Finances

dave mcclure — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 22:43:32 -0000

so like i said "i ain't no accountant", but...

while i get your point about cashflow going out the door, still don't you think FB can pretty easily get a rather significant line of credit to deal with the cashflow?

cashflow is meaningful, but EBITDA isn't bupkus either.

and actually cashflow *from operations* is probably more notable than Capex spend, unless it's REALLY irrational (which i don't think so, given that they need the server infrastructure to pull in the $300M+ in 2008)

again, i'm not trying to make an assessment of the investor position, but a $50M EBITDA and revenue @ $150M growing to $300-350M isn't chopped liver.

they may not be google, but they ain't geocities.

Re: Max Levchin on Slide's $500 Million Valuation and Other Widgety Issues

dave mcclure — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 16:08:04 -0000

@rod sandcones: huh? wtf r u talking about?

Slide is nothing BUT distribution. 150M users, hundreds of millions of widgets, billions of page views... excuse me mr. pipe dream, but just what kind of Wal-Mart distribution are you thinking of?

max may have some plenty big shoes to fill on valuation / monetization, but he most certainly has demonstrated distribution on both Facebook, MySpace, and the IntarWeb.

i think the bigger challenge is showing they can provide transactional value and/or targeting behavior that indicate
large revenue potential.

i agree with Kara: max is competitive / aggressive as hell, but he ain't stupid.

Re: MySpace's San Francisco Debut in Living Color!

dave mcclure — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 12:11:21 -0000

i'm impressed... i think they're really making a significant effort to be more open to developers. and the burgers weren't bad either.

love the color commentary: "actually doing something useful louie... building a tunnel." heh.

(i brought home a sandbox for my kids too... good schwag ;)

Re: Bebo for a Billion? A 100% Chance of Wrongness!

dave mcclure — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 13:21:23 -0000

sorry, i don't get it...

you say Allen & Co is raising a round, that the valuation might be a bil, and that other folks are sniffing around.

why doesn't it seem reasonable that a motivated acquirer with cash would pay a premium on that supposed valuation to buy the company?

or are you saying just that the rumor wasn't well-founded?

seems like the math would add up to me, and that Google certainly has the cash & interest to pull the trigger.

Re: Bebo for a Billion? A 100% Chance of Wrongness!

dave mcclure — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 13:07:56 -0000

ok i understand your perspective.

i thought you meant the # was out of whack, which doesn't seem to be the case.

re: whether it's fact, rumor, gossip or opinion... i don't profess to grok the finer points of journalism here, but maybe erick should have noted it as more of an opinion piece. not sure i understand how you folks make the distinction between a) a multi-sourced news story, b) a single-sourced rumor, or c) a writer's conjecture or opinion.

all of them are interesting imho, but i get that each is a different animal.

Re: Actually, It's Not Quite Over Yet for Yahoo

dave mcclure — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 17:08:06 -0000

nice goose & Sasquatch photos ;)

Re: Are Microsoft's Boots Made for Walking Away From ’Hoo?

dave mcclure — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 12:44:40 -0000

imho, either Amazon or eBay is a more interesting acquisition for Microsoft than Yahoo.

having them buy up all the Web 2.0 startups is unlikely, but fun to think about... maybe they can just drop a few bil' here & there, eh?

Re: Defining Yahoo: Beyond the Pail

dave mcclure — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 03:16:13 -0000

speaking of buckets, if you're bored with life then you're doing it wrong.

more from elan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bctGWwTXXz8

Re: Sheryl Sandberg Will Become COO of Facebook

dave mcclure — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 12:51:11 -0000

nice scoop Kara. and nice crystal ball on Sheryl too.

(no inside help on that one? just channeling mark again, eh? ;)

Re: Kara Visits Graphing Social Patterns West and ETech

dave mcclure — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 06:13:14 -0000

thanks for coming down to san diego kara! next time let someone else get the big scoop and come party with us geeks :)

(who knows, maybe in another year we'll have that monetization thing figured out.)

Re: Yahoo's Nightmare Scenario, Part 1

dave mcclure — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:31:40 -0000

embrace, extend, and.... devour.

yum :)

Re: Bebo: By the (Not So Big) Numbers

dave mcclure — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 15:21:51 -0000

next up: hi5.

Re: Imagine There's a MicroHoo (It's Easy if You Try)

dave mcclure — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 19:58:50 -0000

kara, your photoshop skills are about as good as mine.

which is to say, don't quit that day job ;)

(liked the headline tho)

Re: Welcome to Facebook, Sheryl Sandberg! Now Get to Work.

dave mcclure — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 01:44:09 -0000

hmm. guessing there are probably several equal-but-different "#2"'s over at FB, and that Sheryl might be one of them... but probably also the case that Adam D'Angelo and Matt Cohler and Dustin Moskowitz are in the same category. Not sure about Gideon Yu & other folks, but anyway, i'm just sayin'...

Re: Shine On, Shine On Yahoo Soon, Before the Buy

dave mcclure — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:54:28 -0000

hmm, not "Shine on, You Crazy Diamond"... guess you're not a floyd fan, eh?

Re: Memo to Chris Shipley: Luca Brasi Sleeps With the Fishes!

dave mcclure — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 11:41:24 -0000

mmm, RED MEAT. yum!

well all i gotta say is from the entrepreneur's perspective, competition is good.

due to scheduling, there's a bit of a dilemma having to decide whether you do one or the other, but for most folks the question would only be one of them anyway.

chris puts on a good show, but TC also did a reasonable job first time out. DEMO's challenge will be to prove that paying the $18.5K really *is* worth it, TC's will be to show it can do a good job filtering more companies, and put on a show as good as DEMO.

at the moment, there's plenty of business to go around so i'm not gonna spend a lot of time crying for either of them.

again, it's great for entrepreneurs to have competition & choice -- that's a lot more than most folks living under mob rule in Chicago ever had...

as for you Swisher, better sleep with one eye open!

Re: MicroHoo: Yahoo and Google Play House

dave mcclure — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 23:11:47 -0000

nice use of seuss!

swisher on the loose :)

Re: MicroHoo: Some Web 2.0 Advice!

dave mcclure — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:59:39 -0000

hmm. i gues alex & louie had the most insightful comments on that one... ;)

Re: Twitter: Where Nobody Knows Your Name

dave mcclure — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:46:57 -0000

mmm.. i predict twitter "mainstreams" in ~2-3 years, friendfeed in ~3-4 years.

(altho my guess is both get acquired / integrated into something else before then).

would have been interesting to ask about Digg, which i think has already crossed over a bit.

(ps - i twittered the birth of our second child, including 3 cervix dilation updates... NERD! ;)

Re: MicroHoo: Mail Monopoly Part of Yahoo's Price Holdout

dave mcclure — Fri, 02 May 2008 17:15:36 -0000

yep, definitely the core merger item both sides are trying to keep quiet. i wrote at length about this a few weeks back:

Microsoft + Yahoo = Hailstorm 2.0
http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/03/web...

(btw: i think your AOL #'s are understated... those might be web-mail #'s that don't include client-side email; not sure)

regardless, i'm not sure it's likely to be a regulatory issue since email & IM are being given away for free by *EVERYBODY* (GOOG & AOL as well as MSFT & YHOO).

Q: is it really a "market" or a "monopoly" if you don't charge anything for it, and neither does the competition?

you could easily make the case that if MSFT/YHOO ever tried to charge for email or IM, both Google and/or AOL could compete easily and gain market share. perhaps they *could* bundle to preference another product, but that would be a future monopolistic action, not a current one.

still, your summary of the issue is on target... don't think i've seen anyone except you & dan farber with a good take on the email issue. [golf clap goes here]

more interesting in the long-run though is not just email per se, but what you can DO with the email assets to provide close-to-universal login, mining social graph data, and preparing for the "Social Commerce Revolution" that's coming in about 1-3 years... watch this space :)

Re: EXCLUSIVE PHOTO: Jerry Yang Still Open to a Microsoft Deal

dave mcclure — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:26:08 -0000

hey, you know i really need to make rent.

anyone know jerry or sue decker's phone number?

i'm thinking maybe 10-15 minutes of of poker should just about do it.

Re: Google's PR Head Elliot Schrage Heads to Facebook

dave mcclure — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:24:03 -0000

>>transparency, openness, and honest internal communications

yeah, i'm sure that's why they picked someone from Google to help them with that... i mean, Google has GOT to be the most transparent, open, & honest company on the planet, right?

well, right after Microsoft and Philip Morris, i mean.

[COUGH.]

Re: Andreessen to Facebook Board?

dave mcclure — Tue, 06 May 2008 14:38:50 -0000

terrific scoop for FB if so.

Marc is super-smart, and that's already an impressive board with Breyer & Thiel & Sze observing (not to mention Zuck himself).

loved the "Golden Geeks" reference too... on target.

Re: Games People Play: Social Gaming Network's Shervin Pishevar Speaks!

dave mcclure — Tue, 13 May 2008 19:10:58 -0000

congrats Shervin!

Re: Memo to Don Graham: Thar He Blows...

dave mcclure — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:20:16 -0000

truth be told Kara, if you know mike well then you'd agree with Keith: only tweeting 'F*#k Off' and 'let's have a Wired mag burning party' instead of posting on TC or Crunchnotes *IS* actually reserved behavior for Mike ;)

personally, i think the ethics issue is ridiculously overstated. there's a difference between WaPo and the New York Post of course, but to think that any large media outlet isn't substantially influenced by advertisers -- or other people of money or power -- is incredibly naive, and smacks of elitism, not ethics. mike isn't shy of stating what he invests in, and in Silicon Valley pretty much everyone and their grandmother are angels in 3 or 4 startups (i'm in ~15).

furthermore, to suggest that newspapers and/or media properties that don't have direct investments / ownership interests are somehow devoid of any such conflicts is complete BS. they have conflicts from debt & revenue, if not equity. they certainly have conflicts due to sex, power, guns, drugs, politics & other currencies of influence. however for the most part you don't hear about those.

finally, the manner in which betsy called him out was itself childish & conflicted. not to mention taking it to the level of calling out WaPo to eff around with the TC deal is COMPLETELY AND OBVIOUSLY conflicted. she is far beyond hypocritical there.

mike may be capricious, vindictive, sexist, arrogant, and combative... but he's also hard-working, very intelligent, funny, entertaining, and as far as i'm aware generally not a crook.

my .02,

- dave "no conflict, no interest" mcclure

Re: Memo to Mark Zuckerberg: The Chicken or the Egg (or the Golden Ticket)

dave mcclure — Wed, 21 May 2008 14:38:13 -0000

upside on him waiting: Facebook really hasn't hardly dipped a toe in the water on monetization features, and there's tremendous reason to be optimistic for better performance over next 1-3 years (within the timeframe they'd need to either consider IPO, selling, or raising more debt/equity capital). regardless if any of this works, the ceiling certainly feels like it would be north of $15-20B. so unless the MSFT deal is substantially closer / higher than that, my guess he defers for at least a year or more on pulling the trigger.

downside on not waiting: possible that growth could crest (or even wane), monetization features don't work out / don't bear much fruit, or that other players (Google, LinkedIn, MySpace, other newer startups) figure out a better mousetrap. however, i don't think the downside means Facebook = zero value, it might just mean that the floor is $5-10B instead of $15B.

so given the math: upside greater than $15-20B (with some potential for being worth a good bit more), and the downside having a floor at $5-10B, then if i'm Mr. Zuckerberg i'd be patient on taking any deal that's only a slight premium to the most recent 'valuation' of $15B.

don't know if that's the calculus going on inside Facebook or with any of their VCs, but my guess is they're playing for a bigger payday and they're willing to stay in for a few more hands of poker ;)

my $1.02,

Re: BoomTown Talks to a Puppet

dave mcclure — Wed, 21 May 2008 18:05:55 -0000

"bracing"... heh. yeah :)

Re: The Mystery of the Canceled Yahoo Dinner Solved! Or Is It?

dave mcclure — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 10:17:19 -0000

"faxing off resumes" ?!?

come on Kara, how very un-Web 2.0... I guarantee all those execs are keeping their LinkedIn profiles very up to date. all they need to do is make a status update and voilà they're on the market ;)

Re: Nightmare on Microsoft Street

dave mcclure — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 09:10:44 -0000

I agree it's interesting that eBay is rarely brought up as an acquisition target, yet has 2 very compelling assets in PayPal & Skype, as well as other smaller entities.

and Amazon is also a candidate, except it would take a lot of Moolah & Mohammad to Move the Mountain known as Bezos. AWS has got big potential & has already stirred Goog to compete with App Engine. not to mention Amazon payments / 1-click buy is the only real competitor to PayPal.

anyway both are quite attractive for monetization, users, cash & key assets. eBay is certainly the more labored of the two, but Bezos has more vision about where he's going (which prob means he'd turn down any suitors).

Re: Yahoogle?: Microsoft Will "Let Loose the Dogs of War"

dave mcclure — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 19:52:42 -0000

"let *loose*" ?!?

pls, don't let that nameless MSFTer butcher the quote.

"Cry Havoc! and let SLIP the dogs of war..."

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/105600.html

Re: Microsoft's Not Bluffing

dave mcclure — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 20:12:22 -0000

hey, nice picture!

(i mean yours, of course... the Rosie-Trump mashup makes me a little nauseous.)

Yahoo is a compete & utter basketcase. really quite astonishing, how this has played out. srsly, you just can't make this s#*t up.

Re: LinkedIn Raises $53 Million at $1 Billion Valuation

dave mcclure — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 02:15:08 -0000

congrats & kudos to Reid & Dan & team.

LinkedIn is a solid company with a useful product, straightforward business model, real revenue, & continues to grow well.

that said, the cheerleading by the VCs might be a tad over the top... i don't disagree with them, but i think user testimonials are more powerful than investors ;)

anyway, congrats to all involved regardless. i have a feeling they will all do quite well.

Re: Facebook's Matt Cohler to Benchmark

dave mcclure — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 18:41:52 -0000

wow. great move by Benchmark. tough loss for Facebook. Matt is brilliant, level-headed & all-around awesome.

(nice scoop Kara...)

Re: Winklevosses AboutFacebooked!

dave mcclure — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:10:33 -0000

>>"wish the Winklevoss brothers the best of luck"

that's a typo there at the end... i think they meant to spell one of those words with a leading 'f'.

Re: Yahoo's Next (Real) Challenge: July 22 Q2 Earnings Report

dave mcclure — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:24:58 -0000

>>... by adding more sponsored links on its individual search query pages. Such a technique pollutes the overall consumer experience over the long-term, but also can give Yahoo a financial boost in the short-term. Even Google does this, as it needs to, a practice that typically comes nears the end of a quarter.

interesting. wonder if anyone is tracking this to use for short/long bets on public search engines?

your post would indicate someone does, or should...