Disqus - Latest Comments for Armen

Re: Apple Beats the Street, Tempers Outlook

Armen — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 09:24:35 -0000

I am watching this market closely and have been in and out of Apple in 2006 (in fact at times it has been my only stock).

I am anticipating a strong year end rally which is something nobody expects.

Reasons:

1. Nobody expects it - just like no one expected BAC at 18, Wamu at 3, Citi at 14 (these were never drop in a century stocks, right) - and everyone I know is short - bearish sentiment is 46% and all the pundits are predicting an awful Fall.

2. THe fear over financials is mostly over - check out SKF the fear trade and UYG the greed or stability trade - also someone placed a massive order for sep 22 and 23 xlf calls meaning they anticipate at least a 5% move up.

3. Now that MBIA and ABK are rallying - no one is talking about them - all those smart people shorting ABK at 5 and MBI at 10 are DEEP underwater and no one talks about the fact that the crisis started from these insurers and is ending with them as well.

4. Presidential election - the incubents will do ANYTHING to win - including dropping oil to 100, and the indices to year highs to make people 'feel good' about their economic status - which includes the millions who have money in the markets via 401k, mutual funds, etc..

5. Apple should outperform - because the beaten down names are being bought - capital is rotating - but don;t worry - it will rotate back but not until it scares the longs first with a move to the low 160s next week.

6. After 162-164 we should see all time highs by the end of the year because Apple is DOWN on the year and its earnings have improved compared to most other companies - the market is just not rewarding it!

7. I am not always right on Apple but I have been right more often than not - I bought in the 50s and 60s in 2006 (with my entire portfolio - remember diversification is a recipe for medocrioty - I am up 1% ON THE YEAR and that is with minimal diversification (Was up 20% at one point) - buy stocks you believe in and keep adding to it. I did sell Apple at 120 and missed 80 points up - but bought again at 118 and 174 and sold at 154 (Still with decent profit). I went against my cardinal rule which was to panic into an Apple rumor (i.e. Jobs sickness would cost 40-50 points immediately),

8. No one is talking about Apple's new products and the fact that they will beat lowered guidance.

WIth that said - I plan on allocating up to 25-33% of my portfolio into Apple in the coming week - just waiting for one more spike down - maybe a nice Barron's article with another 'Jobs is dying' rumor - we will see.

You will be rewarded.

Disclosure 0 shares long or short - MOST recent short from 179 to 174 (too early on that as well).

Barring a Steve Jobs catastrophe - this is 200 by election day and 250 by middle next year.

Armen Kassabian, M.D.
Urologist

Re: Apple Fails to Lead, Bear Market Frustrates Investors

Armen — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 10:28:39 -0000

In 16 years of investing, including 1994, 1998, dot com crash, 2001
and so on - I have never been more at a loss of where the market is
going on a daily or monthly basis - it is as if all the rules have
been suspended - we have some of the biggest financial companies in
the world dropping 10% on a daily basis and it is becoming so
commonplace that it is a routine item - and these same institutions
are having to issue releases that there is no run on their deposits.
We have the biggest consumer electronic release in history met with a
5% drop. No mistake about it, we are staring at the abyss here - if
things don't turn soon - we are looking at a 20 year Japanese style
malaise - The Nikkei was at 37,000 in 1988 at 'rallied' to 22,000 and
now to 12,000. History doesn't repeat but it can rhyme and every
eventuality must be considered at this point. All the principles of
value of financial instruments of all types are being re-evaluated and
re-priced. I truly believe we are in a once in a generation
phenomenon and unfortunately, we are 'blessed' with people at the top
who are either slow or unwilling to act.

Armen

Re: Apple Investors Were Pinned Then Screwed

Armen — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 14:06:00 -0000

I observed the same exact process on Friday - even lost money with a buy at 166!

It is possible they are driving the price down before earnings for the next move up.

Armen