DISQUS

I can only hope that im that lucky guy. Do us all a favour and drop him some hints :)

Let me be the someone who will save you before you fall again. =)

Aluminum could corrode but, will not rust.

=)
I hope school closes too! Haha

real a fits so cool

I'd cum all over those tits

Agreed beebee. When we become stars, we will pay good money and hire people to kill the administration :).

-Anonymous (so i can't be arrested for a threat)

You're not really cliff asness are you?

You're in the wrong buddy. The old Disney corporation was racist, anti-semitic, cruel to animals (they threw a hundred lemmings off a cliff for a nature film in the 1950s).

milf!! ps your sister is hot

As for inventory, I can just about guarantee that we are going to see A LOT less inventory by December 2009. I have a model that is fairly accurate... My guess is we will see another 3,000 (at least) inventory less by December 2009. Inventory should plateau on an annual basis after this point.

I think we are at or near the peak price for the year (maybe next month), but in six months it will likely be cheaper due to seasonal variations in absorption rate. But to be clear, the current sales to new listings ratio is high enough to support year over year price increases. So, if I was trying to pick the trough for the year it would be December 2009.

As for the current rate of sales, I have looked at sales back to 1985, and the current rate of sales, as of last month is basically 100% in line with long term sales rates trend. The current rise in sales from December is actually much more than what is a typical seasonal rise. The December sales rate was basically worst since 1995, and is not supported for extended periods of time by demographic demand.

The amount of new listings we are seeing is about in line with what was present in 2003-2005. 2007 and 2008 had record amounts of new listings, and is a big reason what contributed to the correction.

News Headline - Conacher Oilsands Project Resumes

National prices have returned positive +0.4% year over year in May 2009 as compared to -11.3% year over year in January 2009.

Look at this picture: Who is Harper and Flaherty hanging out with?

It's the CREA after some Budget 2009 stimulation!

Harper, The Economist, and his homies, the CREA

Apparently, Squidly77 was not invited.

CBC reports today that nationwide Canadian house prices are up 0.4% year over year.

"If you blinked, you may have missed the great housing correction in Canadian markets." - BMO Capital Markets

Balloons wither? As in become dry and sapless without moisture or lose vitality. That is news to me.

Since this blog began in February 2007, Edmonton SFH prices, where the blog owner resides, fell from $384,207 (February 2007) to $377,565 (June 2009). A drop of a whopping $6,642. Is a 1.7% drop over a 2 year and 2 month period really the "Alberta Bubble" that was claimed was present over the previous 188 posts?

Since this blog began in February 2007, Edmonton SFH prices fell from $384,207 (February 2007) to $377,565 (June 2009). A drop of a whopping $6,642. Is a 1.7% drop over a 2 year and 2 month period really the "Alberta Bubble" that was claimed was present over the previous 188 posts?

/b/ is not your personal army.
Twitter will be dead last

Don't forget to wave bye bye to the inventory.

I should add that that data is for Calgary. The seasonal adjustment is performed for all the data set. What it does is identify what volume of sales typically occur in any given month. That way, when REALTORS say things like well sales always rise in the Spring, or when bubblists say things like well sales always rise in the Spring, I can determine whether sales are rising more than they normally do or not and what sales would be if they were to continue at that pace.

I don't believe that the 16% growth is possible. Looking past the recent boom, it would look like maybe 5% growth is more likely given that we have slack in the system. Or would also accept the conclusion that we will have no growth over the next year, however as I have said before, I am quite confident we have already likely past the period of steepest declines.

Recent price data also confirms that the real estate market is firming up on a year over year basis.

e.g. Over the previous 3 month period, Feb to May 2009: SFH prices rose in Calgary by $20,859 , whereas in Feb to May 2008: SFH prices rose in Calgary by only $7,868.

I do think the chart is a good tool. For example, during the 1990's the market had a relatively high number of listings for extended period of time and no price growth, and in 1997 it shows leading indicator when the spread between sales and new listings opens up and coupled with the affordability information indicates that it was a good time to buy and that the market would have price momentum. In January 2005, as the spread grew to record amounts it indicates that prices were likely to boom. And in 2007, it identifies the start of the correction.

THat's why I think it is actually more important that people build a proper budget before buying, then looking at a chart like this. I don't want a person purchasing a house with unreasonable expectations of house appreciation, and failing due to poor budgeting and shortsightedness.

I did not have the data for it... I was only able to find data back to 1985 for new listings and sales data from the CREB @ the wayback machine. Whereas, I have a consistent price data going back to the same period as the graph you posted above.

My opinion, is that the overvaluation in 2007 was similar to 1991 in that affordability was slightly worse in Calgary in 1991 compared to 2007.

Do you have know where I can find listings and sales data that predates 1985?

I have some graphs that I could post on my blog... But I'd rather see people go out and make a proper budget than buying based on what they think the real estate market will do.

Historical Price Relationship

Housing Recover Already Underway?

"Spring POJOs" ? POJOs were around *before* Spring, and POJO persistence similarly. Terming it "Spring + POJOs" would be more appropriate, because otherwise some of us would think you Spring people just want to claim credit for anything ...

In other news, Calgary ranked 6th in the world by The Economist for livability in 2009. See, we are different here. Now let's starting building a smarter growth model that is more sustainable. Yes, the oil reserves will keep Alberta's economic engine running for the next century, so we had better start planning for growth rather than pretending (or in Squidly77's case hoping it doesn't exist).

Another 7,300 people made there home in Alberta last month. Life is short, the current recession will be even shorter.

I would suggest that Alberta bubble bloggers take up different hobbies. The current supply situation is much less than demographic demand, and inventory has plummeted, and will likely drop further into 2010 given what I am seeing for seasonal sales and new listings.

I don't see the point in saying things like "tick tock" unless the situation was where supply was overwhelming demographic demand and inventory was increasing and already high. Clearly, we are no no where close to this point, and people will make decisions based on other things besides the market including probably the most important and that is where the current household budget is and there best projections and worst case scenario of where the household budget could go.

I do think affordable housing will continue to be an issue, and so it is important to steer the public debate towards funding more affordable housing initiatives. I think affordable housing really helps people become more engaged in their communities. For some, obtaining adequate shelter can be very hard, especially for those that worked or made a living in Alberta through blood, sweat and tears only to watch house prices sky rocket. I suggest migrating to a blog platform that is focused on issues of how to cope with Calgary's growth (long term problem), rather than those that are focused on the current downturn (short term problem).

Some ideas to help reduce housing costs include:
Legalize secondary basement suites (this should be done immediately in my opinion)
Recommend Plan It approval to allow for more MFH to be built that would increase weighting towards lower cost MFH units
Identification of rental market deals
Better liason between drop-in centre and subsidized rental initiatives
Mandate builder's to build a certain % as affordable units (not sure of the cost-benefit to this so it is just one issue I thought could be a potential discussion point)