Disqus - Latest Comments for Thom

Re: iPhone 3G Biggest Gadget Release in History, or Banks Tank?

Thom — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:04:35 -0000

It's been a frustrating couple of weeks to say the least. The most important thing I'm doing is making a shopping list for the Apocalypse and getting some insurance on my long term holdings. The nice thing is, when this market gets some honest wind under it's wings, Apple will soar.

In the mean time I'm stockpiling bullets, fresh water and MRE's.

Re: iPhone 3G Biggest Gadget Release in History, or Banks Tank?

Thom — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:10:39 -0000

Oh, one more thing - Dizzy Bee has got to be the coolest game out for the new phone/software and for 2.99 it's gonna move!

Sorry, I just saw the trailer for it and it makes my wife and I want iPhones even more.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:41:08 -0000

Do you think then that this is a good entry point? If the Institutionals are keeping the price down for earnings is this foreshadowing an upside surprise (more so than the whisper number of $1.12) or setting us up for a fall?

Don't for get that Rimm trades 18mil per day usually so it's actually having heavy volume, while Apple trades 31-32mil so today's volume is anemic.

I really chalk this up to Margin concerns, Intel is only up +- 1% today.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:45:33 -0000

Tranqillo YEV, tranqillo. He's expresing his concerns, not bashing. Apple's Back-To-School program is a pretty deep discount for the entire iPod line-up. The 3G will be a part of Apple's FLS but the Market can overreact.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:52:30 -0000

I agree, my question was more of a general question. I'm holding very lightly into earnings and plan to take advantage of any temporary weakness that may occur due to mis-reading the tea leaves.

However, if oil falls tomorrow all bets are off and I feel ALL players will benefit (except the oil guys that is).

Re: Technical Analysis, What it is and What it is Not

Thom — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:14:33 -0000

To me TA is like Counting Cards in Vegas. It doesn't guarantee you a winning hand but it greatly increases the odds. I don't believe in one single method to trade, Gann, Fibonacci Waves, Oscillators, FA, TA; they are part of a wise trader's arsenal.

Re: Apple Investors Nervous Going into Earnings

Thom — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:25:37 -0000

I have to agree a lot with Marcos. Apple does not treat itself as a publicly traded company. This is great for the Consumer and for their products but it makes it VERY difficult to be an Investor. Apple does have a pretty dismal history of insider buying though it also doesn't have massive insider selling either.

I also believe one big anchor around this stock's neck is the health question. While I believe Steve is fine, I don't KNOW that he's fine and this is the kind of stuff Institutions don't like. As a company, Apple's future is great but as a stock it's in limbo. If Apple breaks the trend this week and rises above it all I'll be pleasantly shocked.

Re: Apple Investors Nervous Going into Earnings

Thom — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:29:23 -0000

And looking at the Oil chart zack posted, the next level of support will be the 122 level to test the June lows. Cross your fingers and hope the weather holds this Summer.

Re: Apple Investors Nervous Going into Earnings

Thom — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:00:04 -0000

In April we tested 160 a couple of times successfully and then after that it looks like 145. 165 has been a major rally point for the latter part of this year, lets hope it stays that way.

Re: Apple Investors See Bear Backing Into Cave

Thom — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:37:13 -0000

Let me preface this with "I hope you are right". But to throw a little cold water on the theory I have to point out that when the Olympics are over millions of more vehicles in China will be on the road, hundreds of coal fired plants will begin again and it will all coincide with the seasonal build up of heating oil and Nat Gas.

This commodity drop is a buying opportunity and we'll all be feeling the pinch at the pump (not that prices have really dropped there yet) all over again.

Re: Survey: Will Apple Blow Out iPhone Numbers?

Thom — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 12:09:29 -0000

The problem is right now all your assumptions are based on assumptions. Apple will gladly let us know when they've sold their 3 millionth phone. I believe they'll get there before September but the usual problems will befall Apple as did Nintendo's Wii. Supply chain issues. Of course these are quality problems and NOK and MOT would kill for them but they are problems none the less.

15 mil is a possibility and quite probable as well. 20 I don't think allows enough ramp-up time for the manufacturers.

Re: Survey: Will Apple Blow Out iPhone Numbers?

Thom — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:34:20 -0000

Unfortunately their current performance isn't very inspiring on the channel supply front. I know they've historically ramped up and it's smart inventory control but the scale of this launch is beyond their usual scope. And if Russia and China are added this year it will add even more strain.

If Apple doesn't beat 12 million it's a huge failure but I thing 20 mill is a stretch. 14-16 is a reality.

As an investor however I'd love for them to see 20+, truly!

I don't ever remember Nintendo having supply problems until the Wii though I was fairly young for the SNES and their old hand helds. GameCube started off slow but picked up, Wii's been having issues - amazing considering it's just a bluetooth enabled GameCube.

I like to guide like Apple UPOD, Under Promise, Over Deliver.

I tend to think of everybody as scum, then it's much easier for me to be pleased with them : )

Re: Apple Investors, the Bear is Back

Thom — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:46:21 -0000

Talking to a dear friend of mine at GFI. He's an exotic swap rate trader - basically places bets for major financial institutions on the direction of the yield curve between different benchmarks like the 3-month Libor v. 10 T-bill. He handles billions of $ a day and sees the underlying health of the global economy. He says is getting worse and worse every day and feels bad for the equities market. He doesn't see recovery for some time.

Re: Apple Investors Unsure While Broader Markets Engulf Bear

Thom — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 08:40:52 -0000

Big problem with yesterday's AAPL action is a lower low and a lower high and lower volume. Be very cautious out there! The problem with the Market rally was it was tied to financials going higher (unsustainable) and Oil going lower. Oil will only go so low before it goes back up again. Oil hits $100 and the American consumer will dust off their Wake Board Boats and Jeeps and China will go back to subsidizing diesel all in time for the Olympics to end and for Winter heating season to begin.

I see a sideways market for the next year or so.

Re: Apple Investors Unsure While Broader Markets Engulf Bear

Thom — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:24:57 -0000

My big fear is that unless it's an iPod type product the Street wont get it. They where initially disappointed with the Air.

Re: Apple Investors, Announcing the Wilderness Sentiment Indicator

Thom — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:17:17 -0000

I might add that I added more to my holdings in CHK and PBR, and BAX. Otherwise no view either way on the market.

Re: Sidelined Apple Traders Fear Manipulation

Thom — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 13:43:10 -0000

It's been hard to trade AAPL based upon fundamentals and general market technicals but looking at aapl's tech signals and using prudence and common sense it's not impossible. I just find the frequency of my trades in aapl have decreased.

AAPL's market cap is too big to manipulate at the level of volatility we've seen lately.

It's a crappy market in general, lots of rumors still not effectively quashed and the concern for lowered margins keeps appl from being a easy play long.

A wonderful history, strong fundamentals, loyal core consumers and an expanding sphere of influlence keep it from being an easy short.

Re: AT&T Worms in Apple iPhone Buying Experience

Thom — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 13:05:50 -0000

The wife and I had a frustrating experience trying to get the new phones because of ATT. Everything went fine on Apple's side but when it came time to set up accounts with ATT, their computer rejected us (we where switching from Verizon). Even though ATT's web map showed our area as having very good coverage, part of our zip code is in a dead zone (we live deep in the woods). Since there was no coverage, they wouldn't give us an account. We tried her father's address, who is an ATT customer, and it said the same thing! Finally we chose a friend of ours who lived in Los Angeles proper and it went through. So now we have to wait one more billing cycle before we can have the bill sent to us.

We finally made it happen and the Apple store chick was cool and worked with us but what a pain in the ass. To end it off, the phones have better reception than our Verizon Palms did, 4-5 bars all the time.

Re: 3G iPhone Case Cracked in Under 24 Hours, Back to the Apple Store

Thom — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 23:35:11 -0000

I'm going tomorrow to replace mine, crack between the volume rocker and mute switch. Good thing is I used the Amex Platinum so even if Apple balks, Amex will cover it for 90 days after purchase no questions asked. Plus they extend the regular warranty by a year so no need for Apple Care.

Re: Wilderness Apple and Market Sentiment Poll

Thom — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 22:00:37 -0000

For traders I would be looking for a selling opportunity into Options Expiration, long term investors I would hold. Today turned around after 2pm and really added some volume which made me happy. Apple has been oversold for a couple of days now and needs a correction to take the pressure off. Use that as an entry for the next leg up.

The market's performance is tied to the rising USD. Sad thing is, the USD isn't getting strong, it's the Euro getting weaker. Short term pleasure, long term pain. Start shorting CAT, BA, BUCY, and other exporters. Financials will have another fall when MER cuts it's dividend.

Re: iPhone 3G Quality Control is Dismal, Very Un-Apple-Like

Thom — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 03:40:06 -0000

As zack knows, I had too had to replace my 3G from a crack between the volume and mute switch. Customer Service was cool as usual and it helps that I'm a very patient guy who is pleasant 99.9% of the time to those that give me service (I grew up working restaurant service so I know what it's like on the other side). What I can't stand is the awful software issues I have. I can't even read an entire article without Safari crashing! My syncing isn't working properly (and yes everything is set up right, it used to sync just fine). I have all the same software issues that have been mentioned in zack's article and in these comments.

What get's me is this isn't an early adopter situation, this is a fairly mature product. I understand the ap store is new but Safari having issues? C'Mon!

When it works, the 3G (or the 2.5g as well I presume) is amazing and game changing but it needs to work.

FWIW - my connection speeds are fine so I don't see any issues with my 3G chipset.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 03:26:41 -0000

Buy Gold, SWHC, RGR, GE and JNJ - the things people need: solid assets, guns, lightbulbs and bandages. Sad thing is, the Government is just an ugly mirror of our current American society (and other countries as well). We have become far too selfish, self-centered and ignorant. We have a great deal of intelligence and ingenuity here but the sad fact is the chaff outweighs the wheat and it's the chaff's ability to spend that drive's the economy. I love America and believe in democracy and TRUE Capitalism, the free market kind with minimal regulation but transparent information. If you don't know how to read a 10k/q or if an investment or debt structure is too complicated to understand - stay away. I don't believe we are headed into another Depression, there are too many ways of creating value in the world and it is a truly global economy now. But we are looking at one whopper of a recession. I try not to inject specific politics into my writing but Ron Paul tried to intrduce legislation to untie Fannie and Freddie from the Government teat in 2002 and was called a whacko for it. McCain and Obama tried the same in 2006 though through different methods (2 sides of the same coin) and failed. There is a slim chance that the Government might profit from these deals but that's not it's job! Create and enforce legislation that is representative of the majority of the population, protect our borders, make and enforce treaties with foreign countries. Sigh...this makes me tired. Everybody, for the love of country, vote for the person who best represents your ideals, even if it's a third party, ESPECIALLY if it's a third party. Vote for term limitations. Don't just vote, vote with your head, not your heart - save that for your spouse/lover.

Sorry for the rambling, just depressed. See what happens when I'm away from the Board for a couple of weeks! Sheesh! I'll try to get back to posting and trading as soon as I can.

Keep your heads low, I would say cash is king but I see it sliding down again which will raise commodity prices again. The only good thing the Fed has done lately is not lower rates.....ramble, ramble, ramble....

Thom

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:51:26 -0000

I'm just curious about all these Muckity Mucks here screaming against short selling. Do any of you understand the proper functioning of a free flowing exchange market? Hedging? Risk Control? Do any of you guys own car insurance? Life insurance? I'm against NAKED shorting and am happy if the uptick rule gets brought back but outright banning of shorting is preposterous. If you own 10k shares of AAPL with a cost basis of $115 and it gets to $180 but looks like it's sliding and it's still under 12 months, how do you protect your gains with out risking full Cap Gains taxes with out being able to short? Or is this concept too advanced? If you bail @ 180 then you are looking @ $650k fully taxable. If you shorted 2k worth of AAPL @ 180 and over the course of 4 weeks it drops to 160 but it finds some legs and you cover then you have $40k of fully taxable gains, still have your original "investment" and can use the proceeds to add more shares to you portfolio or diversify.

It's also insane to think that anybody on this forum has the financial ability to take down a stock, that's wishful thinking. There are only a handful of individuals in the entire world who have that capital. Even if we combine all the individual investors on ALL the boards we could only drop or add the price of a large cap like AAPL for one day. It's institutional money, Mutual Funds, Pension funds that make the moves and their clients. Wake up. We play by their rules and in their court. The intelligent individual investor is trying to ride the coat tails of the big boys and get out when they've made a healthy profit, no matter what the direction. If you truely believe companies trade solely on their fundamentals then the whole concept of forward earnings should be scrapped. Stocks and Corporate Bonds should only reflect a company's current value and earnings, period. Anything else is gambling - oh wait-that's what we ARE doing. If you "invest" in a large cap company that doesn't pay a dividend then you are a fool. You trade companies like Appl. If you got in while it was mid cap or even small cap that fine but it should be a very small part of your porfolio and you buy PUTS or shorts to protect your gains but all you whiners out there that cry against the evil shorters don't want that. Is it only ok to short bad companies? Who gets to determine that? Does the SEC have to put out a "shortable" list. Wouldn't that be a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Again, NAKED shorting is supposed to be illegal except in very rare circumstances but should be out right banned and enforced. The up-tick rule should be brought back, it worked fine, it wasn't broken so why fix it. Otherwise insurance is a positive thing.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:32:24 -0000

Still failed to answer and what lies were disseminated by anyone here? I know Zack has always been positive on Apple as a company, his concerns have been about the economy and financial environment. Was it wrong to short housing stocks? Was it the shorting that caused the sub-prime woes? Is it proper to speculate a stock up? Is it ok to spread rumors about hot new products that have no factual basis to exist to run a stock price higher and are you a pig to capitalize on that? LONG and LIE?

It's people like Ruby and Tunkey that will always loose. You fail to use all the available tools and choose to blame others for their loses rather than coming to terms with a situation and using it to their advantage. This goes for all aspects of life, not just the Markets. Nothing anybody here did was illegal or immoral just opportunistic. Just as it's opportunistic to see AAPL at a price that is far too low, buying calls and then hoping the Government bails out the losers who deserve to honestly to drown and riding the false wave up. But I guess that's OK in your book.

And I keep seeing this "other options existed" but no examples are given. Should a wise investor put their $ in a Money Market instead of taking advantage of a deteriorating market? Oh, wait. MM's broke the buck so that was a sucker's bet. How about Muni's? But AAA rated communities are declaring bk so that's a loss too. Hmmmm, looks like the only way to make "proper" money according to you guys is to have the Government bail you out, sad.

For the record, I've been in cash for my trading account for a couple of months now, and am 50%cash and otherwise long in my family's IRAs with solid dividend paying companies that are well diversified. I am up 63% in my trading acct and 19 and 27% in the IRA's by going both long AND short in various companies including AAPL, CHK, WFT, CLF, POT and others. I have lost plenty of money and I have made plenty of money and the one thing I know is you don't fight the tape and cry to your Congressperson. You use whatever means are legally available to you instead of using the CAPS key to make up for your lack of knowledge or ability.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 18:19:44 -0000

So you bought your house 100% cash? Fantastic! There is NOTHING wrong with credit as long as you have the ability to pay it back and the honest intention. Nothing illegal or immoral about that.

You still fail to address any of my questions and have provided ZERO insight into how an exchange market works and how to profit legally and ethically from it. Therefore you are a troll.

btw - when I buy puts, real money gets taken from my account.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 00:37:14 -0000

You really don't have a clue, do you? NOTHING is more risky than shorting a stock! If you go long @ $10 and the company goes bust all you lose is $10. If you short @ $10 and the company hits it huge and goes to $90 you lose $80. The downside to shorting is infinite! Smart $ has tighter stops when shorting because of this crazy little fact.

Last chance, give me an example of how you would make $ going long in a declining market while staying in the same sector. Hell, how would you insure your gains without exposing yourself to capital gains?

I took the time and effort to give you a legitimate, ethical way of using shorts to make $ in a downtrending market and insure your gains while minimizing your exposure to the IRS. Your counter was "put your $ where your mouth is - invest" Do me and the readership the courtesy of enlightening us to your Bear Market Strategy. What do I "invest" in? Do you mean Dollar Cost Averaging? Take it from a MOTT, DCA has killed more Jews than Hitler and Stalin combined.

What it seems to me is you are pissed @ Institutions lying to the downside to make $ (seems like you are ok with it if it helps the longs though I could be wrong). That's fine, it's wrong and illegal and the SEC is criminal in their negligence for enforcing current laws and regulations. I lost $20k on the Steve Jobs cancer BS and was pissed but I didn't cry over it and lash out at my fellow civilian investor/trader. I used my head and recovered and took opportunities as I saw them, shit happens - write your congressperson.

It seems to me like you owe Zack an apology, he isn't a fundie nor does he collude with them. Your accusations have as much validity as Eric Savitz's regular bs. For me, I just want your secret formula for going long in a Bear Market and making money, otherwise your permanent silence will do.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 19:01:44 -0000

What I love most is you express this hatred for vicious lies and the spreading of rumors yet there you are doing the same thing about Zack and everybody who shorts. Do you have any proof that Zack spread lies or in any way tried to manipulate the market or do you just "feel" that he did? In so doing you have become that which you claim to hate - a fear monger who distorts reality for your own needs. Unless you can come up with proof that Zack or anybody else here is involved in illicit activity then it is you who are guilty of "the demise of decency , integrity , honesty and respect." I don't know what your motives are. Is it to lower Zack's readership? Do you want to "take Zack down" through the dissemination of lies and inuendo by lowering his readership so that his click value lowers to a point that he can no longer sustain the site? Or perhaps you are just so full of blind altrulism that you feel it is justified to slander Zack to save people from themselves and avert their eyes to the evil ways of "shorting" Is this your own version of Reefer Madness?

You have generalized all people who short into criminals and therefore lack credibility. You also give the generic answer of "invest" in a good company in a bear market and you will magically make money. I know, trust and love Apple but even if Steve-O walked on water, the lake is drying up. no company is an island and consumer dependent company like Apple will experience a slowdown. If the pain was only being felt by America then it has a fighting chance, better than most I might add, but this is a global disease. Apple will probably move up for a bit like every other company out there from this Socialist bailout but it's perfume on a pig. Nearly 1 Trillion dollars is being injected into the system further de-valuing the dollar and we have given sick ailing companies a stay of execution when they should've been put on an ice flow and sent out to sea.

Like I said, I gave examples, ticker symbols and actual strategies that have handily beaten the market in Bull and Bear times. Stop being lazy and give me solid moves that have made you money in these troubled times, don't be selfish now. Sounds to me like you only make money in Bull markets, but then again only an idiot loses in an up market, the truly savy and "intelligent investor" makes money in a Bear market. Being only comfortable being long is fine though limited. But if you really believe in Apple's ability to perform beyond the abilities of the economy then you should be hugging every short seller you meet because they are giving you an unprecidented chance of getting more shares at a lower price. If you don't have the $ to buy more shares and are fully invested then you know jack about portfolio management. I don't know this, I'm not stating this as a fact, it's just a casual observation.

If you feel that strait out short is market manipulation then you must feel that flat out going long is the same. After all, if you buy enough stock you reduce the available supply and create demand thereby raising the price - Scandalous! When you short a stock you are putting it back into the open market thereby increasing supply and if the demand doesn't match and/or exceed the supply, the price falls - Evil!

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 22:19:38 -0000

How about the individual? I mean, all of the above is a true choice as well but ultimately we are responsible for our own decisions, our own votes, our own choices. The vast majority of the USA ignored the warnings as well as Wall Street, Congress, etc...

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 22:21:46 -0000

I'm curious macfan, why don't you go back to doing what you do when you are not telling other people what to do?

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 21:39:34 -0000

Claudio, you know I like you but I gotta call you on this. I've helped you "gamble" as you call it. I watched you trade shares of aapl, sell them in a day or two and take profit, wait and buy more shares at lower prices and run them up again and even more money. Why is ok for you to speculate on that but no one else? Because you really love Apple? C'mon. You may know that but the stock doesn't care. So you don't use margin, wise move but millions use margin every day and pay back their debts fine. Should margins be made tighter, sure. ALL debt levels need to be seriously reconsidered in this country/world. The problem is when crisis' occurr too often the baby gets thrown out with the bath water.

Speculation is fine, it's what makes markets liquid. Leverage is fine when used wisely. Shorting is fine, it's what allows us to hedge.

Macfan, stop be a self rightous troll. If you hate sack so much go somewhere else, it's sacks sight after all. Man up and start your own super altrulistic fun site I'f you such the egoless analyst.

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:29:53 -0000

mf, the thing is I had to take off the site for a while and when I come back there is a deluge of people calling zack underhanded and question his motives and I find these comments unfounded and off track. Catch me up, has anything happened in the past 3-4 weeks? (besides the obvious market turmoil of course - I've not been trading but I'm not dead). I have zero problems with debate, in fact I thrive on it and find it's the Socratian method of eduction the best. But In my short history when I see what appears to me to be slander it usually means /b type trolling.

Like I said, maybe his stuff has been hashed out in the past few weeks and I've missed it and if that is so, sorry. But otherwise the Zack bashing seems really rather weird. I hate Rush Limbaugh but I don't waste my time listening to him or writing to his blog or whatever he has. When people go after a site owner like zack it seems to me the poster is bored and is just filling their free time or get a rush out of being provocative. They guise this as altrulism but never really offer salvation. If I am off base, i appologize but I gotta calls them as I see them.

as for u RT, you are a failure if you didn't read any of my posts and see the care and thought I put into creating a reasonable, valid, highly educated response. I gave examples, methods, history and time. If you can counter my arguments using the same thoughtfulness then I would applaude you (or anybody else for that matter), but when the responses are simplistic Cramerisms I call bullshit. Somebody reads Rule One Investing and they think they have the Market cornered.

I actually enjoy zack's writing and it would be pretty lame for me to find value in his insight and just stand buy and let people slander him. Anybody who sits but silently is pretty spineless in my opinion. Just as you feel some how justified in your comments, I too feel justified in mine. The difference is I back my shit up.

Re: Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism

Thom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:36:53 -0000

Being a card carrying member of the North American Marlon Brando Look A-likes, I have my concerns...

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:05:56 -0000

Now THAT's a valid question. And if Zack doesn't answer it then he deserves to be called on it. We don't always have to like the answers we get in life but it's still always nice to get an answer anyway.

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 13:16:10 -0000

You also decry speculators and you have engaged in speculation.

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 13:20:07 -0000

Fact is EVERYBODY who engages in the Markets is a speculator. No matter who much the fundamentals say a company is strong, worthy, etc, when you put your money down in that company you are speculating that it's value will increase.

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

Thom — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:46:37 -0000

Also Claudio, yes poor use of credit is a major culprit here but we're talking 30:1 levels here. I know that my margin account doesn't give me that much rope to hang myself with.

It just seems to me that this crisis have really brought out the crazy in all of us. I hate to say it but if anybody had been trading these past couple of months you were unreasonably greedy. I called going to cash after Apple failed to break 170 2 months ago. Yeah I missed the big 5 day rally but so what? I missed all this crap too. I've been pure cash because as I've stated this is only the beginning of this mess and until a clear direction is established then it is a casino with no free drinks. Expect oil to get to 140 again and stabilize from the diluted dollar.

Re: Apple Investors Take Heed in the Fate of RIM

Thom — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 01:13:56 -0000

I still don't understand why anybody would be trying to trade in this environment. Fundamentals don't matter and neither do technicals. It's all news/fear/hope trading right now. Sure one could try to get that juicy bottom but it's not worth it. The easy "down" money has been played so shorting is becoming more and more risky. Going "long" is still a long way off. We are in a stagnation tumble and will most likely be there for some time. Until a true pattern shows itself, cash and maybe gold on a strong dip.

Again, Apple is a wonderful company but the stock is gonna test the Feb/Mar lows. Big problem is, Apple sandbags it's numbers. Everybody and their dog knows this. They always beat their numbers and we saw the big dip that happened last quarter when it guided lighter with lower margin warnings. What's gonna happen when they actually MEET their numbers? It's ugly out there and it's not Apple's fault or Rimm's fault or what ever but we all breathe the same air and it's getting pretty thin up here.

Seriously, I'd start buying real estate and rent it out. It's going to get harder and harder to qualify for a loan so more and more people are going to have to rent and will want more than an apartment. THAT'S an investment, you and the bank.

Re: Apple Investors Be Patient the Volatility Must End

Thom — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 01:36:24 -0000

I gotta ask RT, do you really think Zack's articles effect the Market? Really? I mean maybe if you took every blogger out there that talks about Apple and combined the investment portfolio value that is slotted for AAPL you might get enough to move to move the price a dollar or two for a few minutes but I'd say that's about it. This isn't some Penny Stock we're talking about. Take your soapbox to the hedgefunds, banks and Market Makers. They are the ones who move stuff. And I haven't seen Zack push around any rumors, in fact he railed against the whole SJ looking too thin thing as much as anybody.

Breaking the law is well...illegal. It should be prosecuted, no doubt. Sadly they don't. Shorting isn't illegal, or wasn't until recently, but if you want it too be then write your Representatives. That's their job. In the current environment you have a better chance. But running around crying about it and calling names and what not isn't going to change anything except maybe make you feel better about yourself.

And instead of cutting and pasting articles, try offering some of your own insight. What would YOU suggest to do during this current crisis? Where are you putting your money? Give us a strategy. Remember, a great deal of us here are traders so it is VERY common to go long and short on alternating days so that shouldn't supprise you. Since it seems like you are a long term planner do you suggest buying now? What's your time frame? What position sizing should we use? Do we go all in now or buy in bits and pieces? What's your stop-loss point? What's your target price? Help us out and drop some knowledge.

Instead of always trying to tear Zack down, why don't you try building yourself up by giving solid, well though out advice. you don't always have to be right. If you where you'd be too rich to waste your time reading this blog or any blog for that matter so it's ok to be wrong, shit happens. Give yourself some credibility. Zack is very generous to dissenting voices, he hasn't deleted your account yet and unless you threaten violence I doubt he ever will. but do the rest of us a favor and show to us that you are more than a screamer.

Re: Apple Investors All Eyes on Ben, Henry and Congress

Thom — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 01:51:13 -0000

Well, Mark to Market is a good thing if you have shares in one of these companies. It prevents them from hiding the garbage and shareholders and bondholders have a right to know. The 3% bad paper figure (or 1 or 2) is a misnomer. Approx 3% are defaulting right now but the rest of the papers value has fallen with the housing market so while you have people making payments, the collateral they have, the home, is worth less than the loan which makes the likelyhood of default far greater. Another problem is, even though a vast majority of these loans are being paid timely they were mis-rated. Almost all were given AAA or Alt-A and investigation has proven this to be false (thanks MBIA, Moody's etc!) so their value is wrong. Sarb/Ox and Mark to Market was implimented to give transperancy which allows more intelligent investing but if the figures are fudges from the get go it doesn't matter.

My beef with the bill is the speed they are trying to jam this thing down our throats. With this much money and the ramifications this will cause the face of American Capitalism DEMAND clear thinking. I mean it took over a year to ok the Sirius/XM deal and we want to do this in a week? THAT'S crazy.

I also feel that for every $ spent buying crap loans we put a $ towards a New Deal infrastructure project to put some asses to work. These loans wont pay themselves. People need jobs, we still need better high tech infrastructure and if we are going to dillute the dollar we might as well get some fiber optic, wimax, windmmill, new roads out of it.

Apologies for all the mis-spellings

Re: Apple Investors the Bailout Won’t Stop What’s in Apple Store

Thom — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 02:51:17 -0000

I agree, the IMMEDIATE future is bleak but in the long term Apple has a HUGE chance of gaining considerable market share and is positioned to weather the storm better than most. the big question is going to be hpw long and how deep this economic trench is going to be.

As I've said, I'm in cash and will not buy any consumer discretionary company right now, especially one that doesn't give a dividend but Apple is on the top of my list when the fog clears and I'll still continue to buy their products when I can.

After watching the debates I'm not too optimistic, neither one shone and neither one flopped but neither one would admit that we need to seriously cut back on spending AND raise taxes a bit to clear out our massive deficit - and trust me I hate taxes. I'm the son of an Audit side accountant and the son-in-law of a CPA so I speak taxes and I hate 'em but we got bills to pay, big time.....

Everybody out there, whether I like ya or not, keep your cash tight, buy gold (the real stuff not the etf) and be conservative and we'll get through this and can debate another day.

Re: Apple Investors Take Heed in the Fate of RIM

Thom — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 03:06:49 -0000

Apple definately has an advantage over Rimm in that it's a diversified consumer electronincs/software company so no single egg defines the basket on paper but let's face it; Apple is iPod/iPhone even if the #'s don't say it. The Street is screwy and even if Mac sales rocket, if iPod sales show further weakness and the iPhone #'s don't make up for it them it's gonna be ugly. But that's not really the concern. We know that iPhone numbers are pretty darn good. The issue is going to be forward outlook/margin numbers. Apple and Rimm are high multiple companies and they way you get to deserve a high multiple is by growth and if Apple's margins are contracting without massive sales numbers to offset it then the multiple must contract. And in this environment that contraction is brutal.

Another reason Rimm and Apple are better comparisons than say Dell or Nintendo is that both Apple and Rimm are status symbols, lifestyle brands. Dell is a Kia, Rimm is a Mercedes limo and Apple is the entire Mercedes line.

Truth be told I think Rimm will do better in the short term than Apple since a majority of Rimm's business is, business which has a tendency to keep purchasing product in a decline rather than the consumer. It can't keep up it's growth which will contract it's multiple but it will keep it's core audience just fine. Hopefully the iPhone can finally solve it's stability issues once and for all and really get it's teeth into Enterprise. My 3G, even after updates, keeps crashing and a friend who's a voice broker on Exotics trades is bugging out over the crashes of his. We all love it as a consumer product but it's still not as stable as a BB. C'mon Steve-O! I don't want to switch!!!

Re: Apple Investors the Bailout Won’t Stop What’s in Apple Store

Thom — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 00:55:20 -0000

I sadly agree.

Re: Apple Investors the Wilderness iPod Touch Give Away

Thom — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:00:49 -0000

Totally! Every Market up and down has been caused by Zack's manipulations! The man is Capitalist Puppetmaster! What he doesn't tell us is he controls over $20 bil in his discretionary fund and waits for us little guys to follow him lemming-like and then POW! he calls all his fundie friends, Jamie Dimon, Buffett and Soros and hammers us! The sick little monkey.....

Get a clue........go back to watching Loose Change and writing love letters to Alex Jones. If you've lost money it's because you suck at trading/investing, not because of Zack or anybody else. Take some self-responsibility.

Re: Apple Investors the Wilderness iPod Touch Give Away

Thom — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:12:07 -0000

Wow! You should start a blog! HOW I WENT LONG FROM DOW 14000 TO 10000 & DIN' LOOSE JACK! I would be VERY interested to learn your secrets. Don't fall for the old saw "it's not a loss until you take it". If you are still long in this market you have lost significant value. You may still be in the black but you have lost value. Remember, It's buy low, SELL high. Not buy low and hold forever and then sell in the middle somewhere or maybe high but 20 years down the road but in the mean time the 10 years in between my company's stock has been trailing and not really performing but I love the company so it's cool but all that capital is dead until I realize it.

BTW - you do realize by commenting on this blog you hate so much you are adding to it's viewership thus increasing it's value and lining Evil Zack's massive coffers from the huge revenue that these blogs make. Kinda weird, huh?

Re: Apple Investors the Wilderness iPod Touch Give Away

Thom — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:16:11 -0000

DB - Hey man, I'm sorry I got side track by this BS. Fact of the matter your question is far more germain to the real world than ZUNE and you deserve a reply, my apologizes for hijacking this thread.

Obviously since you asked the question, aapl has had a MAJOR slide. The question you have to ask yourself is, how long is your outlook. What is the purpose of your portfolio, what do you want it to do for you and in what period of time. Hopefully you have a long horizon because things for the consumer tech sector are going to be weak for a long time (6 months - 2 years or so). I don't know what your cost basis is so I can' give specific advice but if you gave more info about how you invest, IRA, 401k or just plain ol investing it would help. Do you use options, shorting, etc..

I'm glad to help you out but always understand that you must do your own homework and make your own decisions. For all you know I'm a crossdressing South Korean playing a Starcraft and this is my undercover persona. If you ask some of the regular posters here or just look at some of my posts here and on the Board and especially the old Google board you'll see that I actually am pretty level headed and try to be helpful. It's just I've been gone for 3 weeks and the trolls have come out from under the bridge and I feel like PaPa BillyGoat Gruff.

T

Re: Apple Investors Is There a Bottom in Sight?

Thom — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:22:34 -0000

Zack, I gotta tip my hat to you for trying to bring rational thought to the asylum but lunatics are on the grass. We can bet on the movement of the rain drops but it's only fun with a Long Island Iced Tea in hand. For me, sit back, analyze the movements and look at the long term ramifications and the short term reactions but save your cash for booze.

This was sent to me by my brother-in-law, a bond guy with JP Morgan:
If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock one year ago, you would have $49 left. With Fannie Mae, you would have
$2.50 left of the original $1,000. With AIG, you would have less
than $15 left. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer
one year ago, drunk all of the beer, then turned in the cans for
the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have $214 cash. Based
on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink
heavily and recycle.

Amen!

Re: Is Apple a Buy Here Poll

Thom — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:37:00 -0000

I just don't see the need to do ANY action right now. So much is still in the air, so many unanswered questions, too much info to still drop. I understand if one is working for a hedge fund, brokerage, etc..and they have to do SOMETHING everyday but for those of us civilians dear lord, hang tight. We have a long way to go down. AA's recent shitty earnings, BAC's dillution and there is plenty more to go. Hang tight, buy GLD on down days and Winterize your lawn.

I keep track all day on certain equities and indexes and dollar levels but otherwise I'm a house-husband and student. Unless there is a financial gun to your head I say smoke a bowl and watch the Flintstones.

Re: Apple Investors, the Bottom Is Not In Just Yet

Thom — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:46:12 -0000

Zune, aka Ruby Tuesday (is that where you work?) give some positive comments rather than tear daown Zack. What's your take on the situation? How would you handle the current crisis? Do you have any advice besides "invest".

I love a quality debate, seriously, it's how we learn. My dearest and longest friend and I get into fist fights occasionally over stupid shit but we always come back together. Debate is cool but you don't offer a counter argument to zack's positions, you just troll like a 14 year old. You have anger issues with out resolution. Somehow you think Zack is solely responsible for AAPL's decline. Perhaps you have more info than us and would care to educate the masses. Is Zack really Woz?

Seriously, give a clear, concise counter argument with out the sophmoric rhetoric. You migh gain some converts. Otherwise I'm sure Zack appreciates you comtribution to his page count and adding a dime or two to his massive coffers.

Re: Apple Investors, the Bottom Is Not In Just Yet

Thom — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:47:08 -0000

Did the VIX really hit there? Damn! we got a long way to go......

Re: Looking Forward to Apple Earnings and Guidance

Thom — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:02:58 -0000

I hate to be doom and gloom and I've been that guy for a few months now and sadly I've been right. This quarter might be fine but the guidance wont be hot and the reality wont be that good either. this is through no fault of Apple, it's just reality. I know a few people who are switching to MAC and I'll be buying an iMAC soon but still. Things are going down for a few quarters. Sure you could buy here and 4 years from now be ahead but if you stay in cash until next spring and get AAPL @ 40 you'll be even happier in 2011. AAPL great company and will no doubt survive. NASDQ -doomed.

Re: Apple Earnings Strategies

Thom — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 02:31:14 -0000

I feel that Apple's recent Quarter will be great as usual but it will guide FAR lower that expected. Who gives a &(%@ about the past, it's the future that counts as far as P/E goes. What multiple will Apple deserve? Apple will survive but does it deserve a 20 P/E or a 14?

BTW - FANTASTIC new cocktail! Vodka, Lemonaide and pickled Ginger (the type you get eating sushi) diced. Yummy AND spicy!

Re: Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

Thom — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:57:38 -0000

Don't for a heartbeat think that this was the bottom. We still have to see the correction in the Dollar! We have pumped so much liquidity into the system yet the Dollar has yet to feel it's effect. Right now it's being propped up by massive foreign purchases as hedges against the falling Euro and Pound but that will soon end and it's valuation will plummet. 1% fed rate? Effective .67% overnight? $1+Trillion created out of thin air? Watch the dollar test it's lows of .74 or worse. Oil and other commodities won't reach their highs like earlier this year due to demand destruction but Gold and other currency placeholders will go back up. This has been a time-bomb waiting to happen and we are still in the middle of the explosion.

The only advantage of the dollar drop will be our exports will be more competitive which MIGHT help out the industrial sector but again, demand destruction will mute this effect.