Disqus - Latest Comments for Bryan

Re: Apple Investors Not Clear on What to Expect

Bryan — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 23:00:51 -0000

I enjoy your comments. I share the same passion and enjoy sharing what I've learned over the years.

Tough market today. Merrill news leaked.

What will happen tomorrow...

Re: Apple Investors, the Bear is Back

Bryan — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:54:38 -0000

I think the market got word of MER selling more stock and decided to unload all day. That and the bank news but mostly MER

Re: Apple and Markets Slaves to the Indices or Mr Magoo?

Bryan — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 23:28:13 -0000

I believe people wanted out before tomorrows economic report after seeing today's #s. Who would be a buyer before that. No reason.

Re: Apple Investors, the Bottom Is Not In Just Yet

Bryan — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:11:14 -0000

The vic was at 200 during the drop in 1987.

I'm looking for the big washout and I'll buy some the next AM

Re: Will Apple Get Lift From IBM Profit?

Bryan — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 01:43:24 -0000

For the second time - the VIX hit 200 during the 1987 crash. Today is not an all time high.

Re: Will Apple Get Lift From IBM Profit?

Bryan — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 02:39:09 -0000

You get the point. The Vix hasn't experienced a real crash or panic - so saying things like "it's never been this high" isn't really saying anything. If the market is crashing it's a different story and you can forget Vix 50 - because it's nothing. Try Vix 150-200 on real panic.

I enjoy your comments - just saying if you compare apples to apples - you get much higher readings....

Re: Apple Investors We’re two-Thirds of the Way There

Bryan — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 19:33:58 -0000

I enjoy reading your comments. As I have stated before - The VIX at 80 isn't a huge deal if we are going to see a real panic like 1987 or 1930s. Comparing Apples to Apples...

Look at the VXO - in 1987 it hit 173. It's at 71 now off 103 high recently.

The VXO Volatility Index, a predecessor to the VIX that reflects the price of options on the S&P 100, climbed 23 percent to 84.30. It jumped to 103.41 on Oct. 10. The ``old VIX'' set an intraday record of 172.79 a day after the October 1987 stock- market crash.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVXO#chart...

Re: Apple Earnings Strategies

Bryan — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:09:36 -0000

I believe you are correct and I'm only holding a very small position right now. Been playing GOOG.

HOWEVER - the last time AAPL moved higher after earnings was the same Quarter Last Year. They beat earnings and guided slightly higher than estimates for 1Q. Everyone was blown away - as was I.

If it wasn't for the economy - I'd bet they do it again.

Re: Apple and Market Analysis: When Leaders Don’t Lead

Bryan — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:20:59 -0000

Good comments. Thank you.

Re: Apple Bear Back Mounting

Bryan — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:58:17 -0000

Thanks for the comments. It helps to get many views.

Re: Apple Investors Working From the Dregs

Bryan — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 20:52:48 -0000

I wouldn't own AAPL during the next Q announcement. The CFO guided so low that the usual percent over that is still way below current estimates. Consumer spending has come to a halt. Even AAPL won't be isolated.

Trade it on drops - don't hold it.

Re: Apple Investors are Going to Hell and Back

Bryan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 23:49:34 -0000

I enjoy you comments. You have been right way more than wrong so in my book that's pretty damn good - especially recently. Screw all the negative posters here. Were talking money not apple loyalty.

Re: Apple Investors are Dead, Long Live Investors

Bryan — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 02:34:40 -0000

Zach, keep up the good work. Sounds like many here are jealous or just stupid?? It blows me away.

I remember you being cautious with AAPL since 150 or something like that. I'd say cautious since then has been wise.

People need to get a grip.

Re: Can You See Apple Under 60?

Bryan — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:10:57 -0000

I can see AAPL to $70 or so and GOOG at $200 which should be support.

Market needs to drop to 7200 and hold for a rally. I don't think we'll see the low levels described above unless we get some real bomb-shell news like Commercial Real Estate crashing down fast with Insurance Companies or a financial company or two go under. It would take more panic.

Re: Apple Rally Stalls, and Stuff

Bryan — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 17:28:37 -0000

Looks like the market is back in it's trading range after clearing 840 and 850 on the S&P 500.

Dow 9600, S&P 1010 and 1800 for the Nasdaq would be the top of the range I believe.

The market is also right up against the Down Trend Line.

The S&P 500 is also right at the 20 day average which the market has only cleared once briefly on the last rally - before failing. It was pointed out that if you didn't buy stocks until the 20 day was cleared you would have avoided all the carnage in the market.

So basically, we have the 20 day and the downtrend line to deal with right now.

What are your thoughts on that?

Happy Thanksgiving.

P.S. Bought 60,000 shares of SSO right near the bottom and sold the other day. Could have made more but it was nice to make some $$$.

Re: Apple Black Friday to Cyber Monday

Bryan — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:29:03 -0000

Looks like the downtrend line held. We'll see where the market closes.

The 840-850 level needs to hold or we go down just like the previous rally in the beginning of November. That would make people very sick. It will wear them out. I do think a return to the bottom will be heavily bought and would hold so quite a while.

Re: Apple Black Friday to Cyber Monday

Bryan — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:17:42 -0000

What a failure of the S&P 20 day average and breaking the Down Trend Line. WOW!!!

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:38:48 -0000

Many have said that the VIX is done because it created a massive double top. Will we retest the 7400 level again or are we done? I don't think we are done.

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 20:23:15 -0000

Market sold off on the 20 Day Average Again (S&P 500) and the downtrend line.

Will be Jobs report be as bad as some are saying.... 500,000 etc....??

I'm thinking of buying SSO if the market opens down several hundred points for a trade????

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:45:19 -0000

That was fun. In SSO and out SSO in about 30 minutes as the market continued to fall. Stepping aside.

Areas to watch - 816 and 741 on the S&P and 8175, 8000 and 7449 on the Dow.

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 16:43:39 -0000

Got back in after the market went positive. What a fun day........

I could have made several 100K but made a couple 10K instead. Right Idea, balls too small.

Re: Apple Black Friday to Cyber Monday

Bryan — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 19:25:57 -0000

Were is the Down Trend line right now. Are we right at it again?

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 01:35:28 -0000

I'm not touching AAPL right now. I'd rather place it safer and play the market technicals.

AAPL has been weak. The last one to show signs of sales weakness.

The funny thing is - they reported HORRIBLE guidance - much worse than ever before but STEVE (God) got in on the call and talked the stock up. That was some sales job.

I love AAPL and look forward to buying it again but I like UYG and SSO right now.

The market looks to be more horizontal and a break above those levels would probably be impressive. I'd say we get some fight on Monday and Tuesday??

Re: Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

Bryan — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 02:24:01 -0000

Real Story on the Jobs Report

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/econ...

Many have stopped looking and many are part-timers.

Re: Apple Analysts Reality Check this Bear Rally is Over

Bryan — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 18:18:32 -0000

Market holding up with even more bad news.

I expect an AUTO deal by Monday and a retest of the Dow 50 day.

S&P 500 needs to clear 896 and then on to 50 Day.

The market doesn't want to roll-over. It has not been able to hold on the way it has lately in months. It's still above down trend and back in play with the 20 day average - also above 875.

Re: Where the Truth Lies for an Apple Investor

Bryan — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 10:19:43 -0000

Zach, just keep reporting what you see and feel and you'll continue to provide a service that "normal" investors find informative. Don't bother with the fanatics.

I agree with your assessment. The market should be moving higher but it's struggling too soon. The barrage of negative news is drowning and real movement up so far. That can change - but it needs to happen soon.

Re: Apple and Markets Getting Squeezed

Bryan — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 17:56:38 -0000

Market closed above 50 day moving averages I believe. S&P got above resistance of 896.

Bought SSO and UYG on the Fed news. AAPL is dead money compared to markets.

Market needs to hold onto gains and the rally will have legs IMO.

Pulling out of MacWorld doesn't make sense. It's a SHOW. They need to keep the SHOW.

Re: Jobs One More Thing No More

Bryan — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:19:57 -0000

The way I see it....

Sounds like Jobs is getting ready to step a side. Now this needs to be factored in a little. If Apple every announced his departure the stock would drop 20% in a day etc.. Sounds like they are talking the market down.

Second, MacWorld was a party. Jobs came on and talked it up and introduced cool products in front of Thousands of people. Yes, they can invite people to their own arena but it's smaller and doesn't have the same flare. Perhaps Apple doesn't have anything great this Jan. to introduce and doesn't want to be tied to the same date.

It's sad news and the party is gone. Kinda like not having a New Years party anymore.

Rimm earnings coming up.

Re: Jobs One More Thing No More

Bryan — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:49:39 -0000

Gumdrop,

I can tell you that TA is a great tool. Fundamentals are more important but TA gives you areas to watch.

Let me put it this way.... if the Dow came back to 7400 again - would you expect lot's of volume and price spikes in that area? Would you expect a double bottom perhaps?

If it broke through that level... would it just go down 50 points or would it probably go down 200-300 fairly quickly?

Fundamentally, the market would still be priced about the same - why the action?

To not see this and understand it is naive.

Re: Jobs One More Thing No More

Bryan — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 10:53:27 -0000

gumdrop,

Zach was saying (what you described above) may happen.

I still think the market may go down to retest 7400 or possibly lower in the next couple of years.

The VIX may still spike. Perhaps we get real panic in mid 2009 or right after 4Q is announced and retailers start lining up for bankruptcy? These are all things to look for.

Technical Analyst is just a tool. If Apple is trading at 15 times earnings - I'm a buyer based on valuations. If Apple is at 40 p/e I'm out. TA is used to spot resistance and support.

Discussion is old.

Re: The Bear Rally is Over Part 2

Bryan — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 02:10:17 -0000

We'll see how it plays out.

1. We have an ascending triangle which is bullish.
2. We might have a double top at 918 - not good.
3. Auto bailout might happen tomorrow.
4. Oversold today for no good reason. GE what if's and Auto BK talk. Looks to be funding now???
5. Still above the 20 day and 875.
6. Friday's have been good lately.
7. Financials have been solid.
8. Market has ignored major bad news lately so a little pullback doesn't mean that much yet.

Re: The Bear Rally is Over Part 2

Bryan — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 02:12:08 -0000

I forgot to mention - futures are up.

Also, Oracle and Rimm did pretty well. Keeping current estimates for the Q.

Re: The Bear Rally is Over Part 2

Bryan — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 04:07:51 -0000

You need to look at fair value on the futures. As of right now they are positive. Don't know about the morning.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

We'll see if the market gives up the rally or if this was just a sell-off on Fed news but that market still wants to go higher. I don't expect a retest of the lows until after earnings in Feb at the earliest right now.

---
Everyday, CNNfn calls trading desks that calculate this figure after the market closes. If they say, for example, that fair value is "plus 10," the futures contract needs to be 10 points above the cash index's close the previous day to be at its fair value relationship to cash. S&P futures trade nearly 24 hours a day. So if, before the stock market opens, futures are trading above their fair value relationship to where the S&P closed the previous day, stocks are likely to open higher.

----

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC made significant progress late Thursday on a deal to secure emergency loans as part of a U.S. government aid package, people familiar with the talks said.

The package would demand sweeping restructuring at the troubled automakers in exchange for bridge loans to carry GM and Chrysler for several months, according to the sources.

Emergency federal loans for the two companies could be announced by the government as early as Friday, according to the sources who were not authorized to discuss the negotiations.

Representatives of the two automakers and the U.S. government continued talks late into the evening on Thursday, people familiar with the closed-door discussions said.

Re: The Bear Rally is Over Part 2

Bryan — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 16:18:43 -0000

I wonder if the market is going to move up daily next week with the holiday's here.

During Thanksgiving week it moved up 800 points after tanking prior.

Something I'll be looking at.

AAPL is dead. I'm surprised it didn't move up on RIMM??

It amazes me that the market can have several days of nothing but positive movements and then - like someone turned on a switch or told a group of funds - that they can sell now or something.

Is Today sell the news? I know I did. What will next week bring. It's a traders market.

Re: Apple Investors Step Away From the Distortion Field

Bryan — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 14:59:59 -0000

Walmart to Sell iPhone on Sunday 28th?

Would Apple get a bump? I haven't traded apple for a couple months but I'm wondering if $90'ish looks interesting for a trade on the news??

Tuesday we have lots of economic news.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200852.html

Perhaps a rally monday with some selling near the close????

Re: Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing

Bryan — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 18:25:37 -0000

The market has avoided the big down days recently. We are drifting lower but we are still above 850 on the S&P 500 so we are still in a bear market rally. The rally recently has been weak and we have failed to stay above some important levels but the downward pressure isn't nearly as severe as it was recently.

I still believe we rally in Jan leading up to the 20th. After that we probably peak and pullback.

Apple is absorbing the news that Jobs might be much less active in the company. That's the main reason it's weak right now. Yes, we had stories about possible weakness in retail but Apple of all companies is very strong. The stores are packed.

Dropping MacWorld is a major disappointment. The only reason to do it is because Steve won't be around. It's such a cheap and exciting experience for the money. The stock is factoring in a transition and we may get news of that in a month etc.

I'm all cash for now and looking for a rally and sharp spike up in the S&P very soon. I think we get to about 960-980 by late Jan. That's what I'm "looking for" right now.

Re: How the Apple Investor Will Succeed in 2009

Bryan — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:29:13 -0000

We're getting our Jan 20th Rally.

More buyers than seller right now. S&P finally cleared 918.

Odds say we move up now. Market has clearly mellowed and made a short-term bottom. We are seeing the round up now. Perhaps we get close to 1000 on the S&P in the next couple of weeks.

No reason to buy AAPL imo. Too much risk. Better buying the market.

Jobs health is old news until actually proven. We've heard it before.

I agree that Gold is the play later this year.

Re: How the Apple Investor Will Succeed in 2009

Bryan — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:22:35 -0000

Why announce this now? Are they using it as a cushion for flat news?? I don't expect bad news.

Re: Is there an Apple Community?

Bryan — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 15:42:41 -0000

I think people should enjoy their own personal community (family, friends, outdoors) versus some online community. Kinda gay imo.

Anyway, it looks like Apple is going to the CES now. That's a big positive. I still liked the MacWorld show though. With the size of their company - they could have done both. MacWorld was a party. You don't get anything "Special" in the retail stores.

Re: Trade Apple Like a Fool

Bryan — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 17:43:54 -0000

That's the problem with the MARKET. They LIE!!

Glad I never touched AAPL.

Why was AAPL so weak lately when the market wasn't??? Insiders knew.

Why did Jobs not attend MacWorld - he looks bad.

Why not just be honest instead of lying and hurting 99% of investors.

DUMB!! Get well Steve.

Re: Apple Is Resilient, But No Bottom Yet

Bryan — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 21:37:44 -0000

Apple will have a solid Quarter but their guidance will be very weak.

The current Q will be OK but not shocking either way.

The stock will not move all that much because of valuations. Up down 10%.

That's my guess.

Re: Poor Earnings Putting a Real Drag on Apple and the Markets

Bryan — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:07:59 -0000

I wouldn't say GOOG was down 3% yesterday after-hours. It was at $311 and one trade of 1900 shares came in last at 298. That wasn't a real closing number.

Same thing happened with AAPL after-hours.

Re: Apple and Tech Heads Still Above Water

Bryan — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:56:47 -0000

Those two retards cost my gains this year. Obama said detailed plan on tuesday. All Bs

Re: Top Ten Reasons to Love Apple

Bryan — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:26:34 -0000

Your comments in the past saved me money on AAPL. I might have traded it more without your insight into the market and AAPL.

I prefer the old style of tell it like it is. I want to hear the good and the bad. Screw the whiners who say your biased.

Re: Apple Investors, Tech is Crashing the Party

Bryan — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:27:13 -0000

We Hit that 666 on the S&P 500 before short cover rally. INTERESTING.

Re: Tech is Holding this Market Down

Bryan — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 18:09:03 -0000

Made good money on uyg and sso. 666 was a great call and we were due for a rally just like the 50% retracement was