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6 months ago
in Freemium business model case study: AdultFriendFinder ARPU, churn, and conversion rates on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
Cams comes from Legendary Lars Mapstead - he and Andrew merged their companies a few years ago. I'm surprised it isn't making much money - I know other large players in that sector, and they are making a killing.
The good stuff I was referring to was adultfriendfinder - seeing a "nude" pic of someone who lives in your same town, after looking at "clothed" photos on friendfinder. Although there are probably ten men to every woman, there are actually a lot of legitimate woman who use the service, and not decoys as noted. Andrew actually worked hard to keep solicitors off the site. The geo-targeted banners use real people. Subscriptions average about three months. And a lot of couples belong to the service - swinging is HUGE on AFF - it was eye-opening, let me tell ya...
The good stuff I was referring to was adultfriendfinder - seeing a "nude" pic of someone who lives in your same town, after looking at "clothed" photos on friendfinder. Although there are probably ten men to every woman, there are actually a lot of legitimate woman who use the service, and not decoys as noted. Andrew actually worked hard to keep solicitors off the site. The geo-targeted banners use real people. Subscriptions average about three months. And a lot of couples belong to the service - swinging is HUGE on AFF - it was eye-opening, let me tell ya...
1 reply
6 months ago
in Freemium business model case study: AdultFriendFinder ARPU, churn, and conversion rates on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
Interesting post, Andrew. Yes, all acquisition is via affiliates, except for adwords. If you look at affiliate payouts for FriendFinder, it's 100% of what FF makes. The strategy is to get the mainstream user in the door, and then introduce them to "the good stuff." The users converting to paid is low, but the LTV for them is pretty high. (I plan to look at this later - stated numbers seem low) I could go into more detail, but it might get me in trouble. :) But I can say that Andrew Conru, the founder, was obsessed w/ funnel metrics, and spent many, long nights coding the reporting for everything mentioned above...
2 replies
chrisco
Looking forward to hearing/seeing your results, spanker. Thanks ;-)
curiouscat
spanker,
What is the good stuff? Cams.com, etc? Are most people buying a multi month package - as i dont think the lifetime would be high on month to month renewals as the value prop of strict adult casual dating is low given their are not many real women on aff - mostly decoys.
What is the good stuff? Cams.com, etc? Are most people buying a multi month package - as i dont think the lifetime would be high on month to month renewals as the value prop of strict adult casual dating is low given their are not many real women on aff - mostly decoys.
7 months ago
in How to calculate cost-per-acquisition for startups relying on freemium, subscription, or virtual items biz models on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
Nicely put, Andrew. When it comes to acquisition, I typically put on my blinders - and ignore CTRs, CR, CPMs, CPCs, etc. and focus primarily on CPA and LTV when determining a thumbs up or down. Sometimes a source of traffic might have a really high CPM, yet has a higher CTR and CR, and leads to about the same CPA & LTV as other campaigns.
Additionally, I calculate both a paid CPA and an overall CPA, and a viral ratio to get from one to the other. That ensures that the "viral angle" is built into the decision making. You then take that viral ratio and apply it to your campaign's paid CPA to get a campaign's overall CPA. And if the campaign's overall CPA is below LTV, then you're good-to-go.
Additionally, I calculate both a paid CPA and an overall CPA, and a viral ratio to get from one to the other. That ensures that the "viral angle" is built into the decision making. You then take that viral ratio and apply it to your campaign's paid CPA to get a campaign's overall CPA. And if the campaign's overall CPA is below LTV, then you're good-to-go.
1 reply
Andrew Chen
One argument for looking at total impressions is that you get some branding value out of it, which helps you in longer-term LTVs - but I agree, looking at the CPA and LTV are probably worth focusing 99% of your attention on.
Great point on the viral ratio and making that explicit!
Great point on the viral ratio and making that explicit!
7 months ago
in Poll results are in - what YOU want to read on this blog, revealed! on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
So we've been reading about the success of Obama's online strategy around the Web... Eric R. even states he worked on the campaign. I wonder if the team had a good handle on analytics and metrics? just a thought...
1 reply
Jesse Farmer
I volunteered for the Obama campaign and they definitely do. Field offices had to report back to the central campaign weekly, giving them a constantly updated view of the facts on the ground.
They turned around those facts to target increasingly specific voter segments as the election approached.
It was an amazing thing to be a part of.
They turned around those facts to target increasingly specific voter segments as the election approached.
It was an amazing thing to be a part of.
8 months ago
in What would Facebook look like if it sold out to ads? Click here to see… on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
Ok, Andrew, what's your point w/ the imvu ad? jk... I wish that fb ad inventory would open up :)
2 replies
Andrew Chen
btw, can you shoot me an email at voodoo at gmail? I want to ask you something. Thanks!
Andrew Chen
i <3 imvu
8 months ago
in I have blogger’s block! on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
How 'bout something that touches on:
recession = escapism = big win for VW/games (as long as your VW/game doesn't rely on ad $$)
I found this post most interesting: http://www.marketingvox.com/escapism-propels-ha...
just a thought...
recession = escapism = big win for VW/games (as long as your VW/game doesn't rely on ad $$)
I found this post most interesting: http://www.marketingvox.com/escapism-propels-ha...
just a thought...
1 reply
Andrew Chen
thanks for the suggestion! I have a whole bunch of blog posts related to VW teed up... I'm definitely going to touch on some of those themes.
9 months ago
in The first 6 steps to homegrowing basic startup metrics on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
On top of that, generally the first thing I do from an acquisition standpoint is to set up a landing page system - where you can dynamically create new landing pages that write to a field in the database called acquired_by. For all traffic landing on that page, you can easily calculate CPA on each campaign by querying the database against each unique acquired_by. Then over time you can add reports that will give you the CPA, activation rate, viral rates, retention rates, etc. against each acquired_by source.
1 reply
Andrew Chen
Yep, you definitely want to capture both the source as well as potentially referrer URL - great idea.
10 months ago
in Remnant ads and the advertisers who love them on Futuristic Play by @Andrew_Chen
I think it's also important to point out the the impression price points can be represented by a pyramid - with the $10 CPM on top - meaning just a few imps. Don't you love it when sites quote $5 CPMs, as if ALL of the inventory is selling for that? I'm amazed by how many CEOs fail to understand the CPM pyramid...
2 replies
Stanley Wong
Agreed. Often times the sell through rates for the higher priced CPM based ads ($3-$10) on mid to long tail sites are only 10-25%. The shame is, I've also seen numerous business plans where CEOs make fatal assumptions and project growth of their entire inventory at $5 CPM.
In reality publishers employ a waterfall model using ad server tools such as OpenX, Google Ad Manager, etc. in an attempt to maximize their revenues. The trick is to test and choose from the 300+ ad networks that work well within the context that you create.
Do eCPMs of $7+ exist for entire sites? Of course they do, goes back to supply and demand for the context the publisher is trying to create from advertisers.
For example, a shopping reviews site will be worth much more on a per page basis ($5-10 eCPM) and with much higher sell throughs than an untargeted social network site (<$0.20 eCPM). With this in mind a site like DPReview is much more profitable than a site like Twitter.
Boggles my mind to see the mad rush to build Facebook, Open Social, and Web apps without any regard to this. Getting big quickly can only go so far.
In reality publishers employ a waterfall model using ad server tools such as OpenX, Google Ad Manager, etc. in an attempt to maximize their revenues. The trick is to test and choose from the 300+ ad networks that work well within the context that you create.
Do eCPMs of $7+ exist for entire sites? Of course they do, goes back to supply and demand for the context the publisher is trying to create from advertisers.
For example, a shopping reviews site will be worth much more on a per page basis ($5-10 eCPM) and with much higher sell throughs than an untargeted social network site (<$0.20 eCPM). With this in mind a site like DPReview is much more profitable than a site like Twitter.
Boggles my mind to see the mad rush to build Facebook, Open Social, and Web apps without any regard to this. Getting big quickly can only go so far.
Andrew Chen
yep, totally agree... it's especially bad when they can quote the prices they get for premium video pre-rolls for their entire site
10 months ago
in Virtual goods: Who will be the Amazon.com of virtual item sales? on Futuristic Play
Now I understand :) Yes, imvu (we, full disclosure) has a ways to go in terms of it's e-commerce. But where do you put resources when your footprint spreads across so many paradigms - 3D technology, social networking, UGC, real-time chat, and e-commerce (virtual goods)? But I agree - virtual catalogs will at some point "borrow" features from the Amazons out there.
1 reply
Andrew Chen
cool, I really admire IMVU. very cool.
Yep, I think it'll take some time for the category for mature a bit more, which will cause a few companies to start going deeper into the tech. But early on, even simpler implementations do great, so there's less incentive to optimize the revenue streams.
Yep, I think it'll take some time for the category for mature a bit more, which will cause a few companies to start going deeper into the tech. But early on, even simpler implementations do great, so there's less incentive to optimize the revenue streams.
10 months ago
in Virtual goods: Who will be the Amazon.com of virtual item sales? on Futuristic Play
imvu - already largest, and it's all UGC (cafepress model - hard to compete against)
1 reply
Andrew Chen
i agree with you that the IMVU model is compelling, but my point is that there's still a lot to be done in terms of how they (or any other game I've seen) merchandises, cross-sells, and otherwise quantitatively drives revenue like Amazon.com...
I've no doubt that there is a legit business among swinging couples. Monogamy is by no means the only reproductive and social strategy pursued by the human race.