DISQUS

They should not be worried about the incoming traffic on their network. That will be much much lower than the outgoing traffic and hence not add to their traffic bill.

27 years ago someone was concerned about this and wrote to the Universal House of Justice. And they wrote back the better below. By the way, if you have a question for the UHJ, you can easily email them using this email address: secretariat @ bwc [dot] org

The first part deals with the question but it also veers off into a discussion of the Covenant and the difference between interpretation and legislation. I’m assuming that the questioner brought these topics forward, otherwise, it is a stretch to link them to the question of proselytizing vs. teaching.

It is also interesting that at the end of the letter, the House of Justice says:

For this reason a number of points are not expressed in the, National Baha’i Constitution (the Declaration of Trust and By-Laws of National Assemblies); these are left to each National Spiritual Assembly to decide for itself.

When in fact, the document in question was changed in recent history (from its previous wording) to disallow National Spiritual Assemblies from instituting such changes as term limits.

In any case, here is the complete letter:

The Universal House of Justice
The Bahá’í World Centre
3 January 1982

To an individual Baha’i

Dear Baha’i Friend,
The Universal House of Justice has received your letter and has asked us to assure you that you should feel no diffidence in raising the sort of questions that you have expressed. It seems clear from your letter that you have been greatly attracted to the Message of Baha’u'llah and have accepted His Faith before, as you say, becoming “fully committed,” and are, therefore, now having to face and resolve problems that many believers overcome before they declare their faith. The House of justice urges you not to let it worry you. All through life Baha’is are faced with tests of many kinds, and problems and doubts, but it is through facing and overcoming them that we grow spiritually.

test

test

test

Rofl at your top pick being John Edwards, that would certainly kill the democratic ticket.

Obama will never get elected, keep dreaming you crazy fools....

I'm really glad Will Bowen found time to write a book. He certainly hasn't found time in the past six months to send me a rubber bracelet.

Both "The Slow Burn Fitness Revolution" (http://www.seriousstrength.com/) and "The Power of Ten" are riffs on Jones' research. Both are built around 20 seconds per rep (10 seconds up, 10 down), and say to increase the weight whenever you can do six perfect reps at a given load.

Forget the MExico deal. Cablevision has ten times as many subs in the wealthy NY Metro region with the same marketing deal and has done virtually zip.

No sale.

You are doing a bit better, but you still have many important mistakes.

You can see my response here:
https://hdtivo.wordpress.com/2006/12/14/response/

Thanks Dave! ;)

I think its pretty clear what sorts of things they could do with this. ;)

I don't read anything into web vs internet connect.

Remember the College Football game?
:)

Football is definitely best suited to TiVo's charms. You certainly can get a game in in about 45 minutes.

But, to enjoy a game, allocate about 35 min. for the first half and 45 for the second. There are certain parts of the game you want more detail on, especially at the end - barring a blow out.

To really enjoy a game, you might take that 1:20 up to about 1:45. You can hear more of the comments and enjoy the pace better. Snapping from play to play breaks the rhythm of the game which builds tension and provides its own enjoyment.

There is a dark side to TiVoed games. The temptation is to watch more games and watch in the entirety. Normal viewing often involves watching parts of a game, or flipping to that second or third game while watching the first primarily. What you miss is gone, and you catch up on the reports later. If you watch 5 games @ 1:20 instead of 2 games at 3:00 or less, you don't come out ahead on time - but you get a lot more Football :)

... To continue, if you want to see some of my supported opinion you can read hear: http://hdtivo.wordpress.com/2006/11/30/judgemen...

The fact is the stock dropped on the earnings and guidance, and took another good hit when Rogers did his usual poor job at UBS: http://hdtivo.wordpress.com/2006/12/08/tom-roge...

I don't claim by any means the day to day stock price is valid for supporting a position, but there is a clear trend showing the financial community's view is quite different from some shareholder that wants to explain why his holdings should double in value.

Unsupported?

I gave several specific comments along the way, some of which they have already figured out were right and done some backfilling on.

Don't expect me to do an entire series for you.

I've already urged Dave to consult someone knowledgeable on the subject, and not just rely on some shareholder's untrained opinion.

One of the more interesting things is the implied cost of bandwidth.

MSFT is taking only $1.00 for several extra GBs downloaded in an HD file. That dollar also covers other costs related to HD content.

So MSFT is probably asking less than $.20 per GB.

Dave:

Suppose the movies could be accessed by any XBox you own either from the MSFT server or stored on your PC with backup on the Net? I don't know the exact details of what they are doing.

Prices will have to be reasonable for what rights you get - own/rent/xfer to DVD/xfer to portable/etc. The thing is everyone will have a different set of preferences and going half way with rent only or own only is not optimal.

Do you really want a 24hr rental where you pay twice if you don't finish the movie that night, or a 28hr rental, or a Netflix inventory/swap method?

There are so many potential alternatives.

Taking the correct numbers together with assumptions that someone with their sanity intact would use, and doing some rough recalculations, the value comes out in the neighborhood of $4.50-$5.50. Gee whiz, sounds similar to something that's happening right now.

Considering how cold it is getting, I'd recommend crawling back into the boiler room you came from.

Hey TiVo, Its Not TV Until Its On TV. Well, looks like its on TV. ;)

Your bandwidth upgrade is obvious. I can't imagine MSFT wouldn't scale their bandwidth to make this useable.

So you can start watching before the DL finishes??? Here that TiVoCast???

Everyone is going to have Navigation (Organization) problems. But XBox/PC has the muscle to handle an advanced interface, etc. whereas TiVo does not. XBox will be able to do far more detailed graphics on the TV screen than TiVo. Netflix has a good navigation interface; you'll never see anything like that on TiVo, but you might see it on an Xbox.

Points stink.

Only selling TV shows is ridiculous. Renting is far more reasonable. Only renting movies is ridiculous... Few TV shows are worth watching again, whereas many fine movies are worth having.

You Wrote:
(We must admit, part of our motivation for doing this calculation was to demonstrate the incredible value-building power of the new subscription system. Even if we have overestimated the NPV of the subscribers, the new model is so much better than the old that it is hard to understand why no one has noticed it.)
---------------
"No one" has noticed it because it isn't real - "No one" knows what they are doing.

You totally crashed and burned with the sale of the LT subs. Even taking your wrong numbers, the result would be removal of the liability from Deferred Rev, drop in cash of $40M and a GAIN to recognize either that QTR or over some period of time.

I can't even be bothered with the rest of what you are doing.

Just read your "opinion" paragraphs. They are all wrong accept for the implication that this year's strategy is a failure.

You are saying spending an additional $78M and getting ANY increase in subs is a positive. Couldn't be more rediculous.

Where did "they" find you?

You are suffering from the same problems carried over from part 1.

NPV(07) is no way $416. NPV(06) was lower than NPV(07)

SAC FY07 is $250+

6% finance return is inapproriate. TiVo's cost of capital is MUCH higher and LT/pre-pay cash provides capital.

You've got wrong calculations all over the place. It would be a big job to unwind it all. I'd go back to the drawing board if I were you.

You are completely misusing the $9.50 figure.

Ad revenue is closer to $.25 than $1.00 and no way $1.16. Ad revenue FELL in Q3 and Product Watch vaporized.

You are assuming newest subs last 69 months; that $13/mo lasts 69 months; that old LTs which are not being replaced last 69 mos.; all inappropriate assumptions.

Your NPV(L) is totally wrong. NPV(l)=$299-(NPV of -$1.11(wrong; -$2.00 ish) over X(69?) months discounted at 12%(?)) A VERY POSITIVE NUMBER.

This needs alot of work, but good idea.

Tom Rogers gave a presentation at a UBS conference yesterday.

http://hdtivo.wordpress.com/2006/12/08/tom-roge...

Have they figured out how to send mpegs/.tivo files back to the S2?