Disqus - Latest Comments for Constantine von Hoffman

Re: Welcome to the wonderful world of deflation

Constantine von Hoffman — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:20:05 -0000

i think that we are now seeing the prices of these things drop after a period of increase. Oil is now below $90 a barrel in response to the decrease in demand from the slowing economy. Other commodities are falling suit -- except for gold which has a talismanic status that is totally separate from any real demand or need for it in the economic system. I don't know what happens next but if the prices continue to drop in pursuit of buyers who aren't there then we have to hope they find a floor. The great risk is when they start to spiral down. Then the commodities markets are behaving with the same panic (justified or not) that we are seeing in stocks. That is when deflation hits.

Re: Welcome to the wonderful world of deflation

Constantine von Hoffman — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:08:42 -0000

Your points are all valid and very well made. My only comment about them (and it is a small one) is that given the nature of deflation by the time year-to-year numbers are adjusted and appraised the deflation may already be well under way. As I said, this is a minor point and one that doesn't change the strength of your argument. I think deflation is a possible scenario not a guaranteed one. I certainly hope that you are right and I am wrong. For the record, I had the Cubs vs. the Angels in the World Series. I am beginning to suspect that it's not going to work out that way. ;)

Re: Once there was a law that would have prevented all this

Constantine von Hoffman — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 12:38:20 -0000

You raise some very good points. I have not looked closely enough at the savings and loan collapse yet, but I suspect some of the groundwork for today's mess can be found there, too.

As far as risk goes -- it is not that Glass-Steagall was an effort to remove risk. Your point about the absurd geographic limitations is spot in showing how it actually increased some types of risk. But G-S was an effort to remove excessive risk caused by what happens when an institution has a fiscal incentive to get others to participate in its own risky investments. G-S was designed for a time when those others were the banks' customers and the investments were stocks. Today we have a situation where financial institutions had a clear interest in getting others to buy the bad mortgages they were making. Their profit came from the resale of these loans -- and their risk -- to others. Therefore there was a huge disincentive for them to do the due diligence that should have been done.

Re: Could It Happen Here?

Constantine von Hoffman — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:42:16 -0000

I think Hard Tmes is a great book and not boring at all. If he spends so much time on communism in America that's because the depression was a period when that suddenly seemed like a viable alternative. Your broader point is a good one, though. This is the time to be pulling out those histories and reading or re-reading them. I also suggest John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929. Also The Worst Hard Time by Timothy Egan. It's about the environmental disaster -- the dust bowl -- that over took the US during the depression.

Re: Election Day facts

Constantine von Hoffman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 12:06:09 -0000

Y'know, sometimes i say smart things. This wasn't one of those times... Touche!

Re: As went housing prices, so went the vote

Constantine von Hoffman — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:14:13 -0000

I agree with you. The folks at the Journal say they would have used another index but this is the best they found that broke it down on a state-by-state basis.

Re: Nothing happens until the new prez takes over. Good or bad?

Constantine von Hoffman — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:52:06 -0000

The car industry in the country isn't going to fade away. One of the problems in this discussion is that people equate the American car industry with GM, Ford, Chrysler. Honda, Toyota and a bunch of others are all built here. If you want to argue that they're foreign owned, let me point out that so is Chrysler. Ford is actually in pretty good shape, by their own admission. What we're really dealing with here is will GM be bailed out from decades of bad business practices.

Re: Nothing happens until the new prez takes over. Good or bad?

Constantine von Hoffman — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:15:03 -0000

socialist! I love it. man that's sad when the best criticism is the use of a buzzword that didn't even mean anything during the cold war. What's next, calling Republicans' "reactionary"? Try thinking for yourself instead of repeating other people's cliches.

Re: Why is Citigroup still in business?

Constantine von Hoffman — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:55:33 -0000

Your clear abundance of common sense may'disqualify you from working at a financial institution.

Re: Love Letter to Vader's Fist - Jentasmic!

Constantine von Hoffman — Tue, 12 May 2009 09:35:07 -0000

I love that this is a link to the "Dark Lord of The Sith's blog" about R2-KT the cute little pink bot that does charity work. Epic fail as a dark lord. Epic success in all other ways.

Re: To Be Censored, Or Not To Be Censored: Wikipedia vs. Baidu

Constantine von Hoffman — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 12:01:26 -0000

Copyright infringement in China? Who would have thought.

There's a very steep price to be paid for doing or not doing business in China. If you're in China and your product gets ripped off you have a slightly better chance of getting some cooperation from the local government officials. But, according to what I've read, it's only a slight increase. Also you do get access to that amazingly large population.

The drawback, of course, is all those difficult moral/PR issues that come with cooperating with a police state. Most businesses ignore those issue and focus on share-holder value. However, businesses are finding that the lack of a consistent and transparent legal system (to put it mildly) poses problems not just for China's citizenry.

Some countries have managed to have a working system of law for businesses but not for the common folk. China hasn't made it there.

Given how much it relies on volunteers and goodwill, Wikimedia faces a major problem if they start playing footsy with Beijing.