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taojones
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9 months ago
in Apple Investors All Eyes on Ben, Henry and Congress on Investor in the Wilderness
if they just change the mark to market rules for these mortgage packages a lot of this "crisis" would desolve on its own. the paper that these companies are unable to value has tangible assets and many homeowners are struggling to make payments and are not about to let a bank take their house. the problem seems to be that the 3% bad apples are soiling the whole barrel. at one point these "worthless" instruments will show either a satisfied mortgage or a chunk of land to sell. last time i looked over 30 years you pay about 300 precent of the original purchase price to the holders of these papers. i don't see how a 3% default rate could sink these packages. the problem seems to be they can't be valued as collateral because no one can figure what they are worth. I don't think that is a problem bad enough for the government to elbow its way in and actually seize these companies
I don't want the bushies to have a blank check with 3 months to go in office . Let me see how do you spell Haiburton ?
I don't want the bushies to have a blank check with 3 months to go in office . Let me see how do you spell Haiburton ?
2 replies
macfan
I think you are right on about the mark to market rule. However, coming up with an actual value for most of this stuff is actually pretty doable once you have your assumptions in line...prepayment speeds, default rates, interest rate curves...
That is how this market works and how the fed will be determining their value. That said, removing the mark to market rules and making holders use quantitave methods to determine value would probably help a lot.
That is how this market works and how the fed will be determining their value. That said, removing the mark to market rules and making holders use quantitave methods to determine value would probably help a lot.
9 months ago
in Apple Investors Today was the AIG Show on Investor in the Wilderness
i keep thinking back 2 weeks ago when zach spooked me out of my short position with his rally prediction Im just kicking myself . investor in the wilderness has lost me more money than i have ever lost before going with zach has put me on the wrong side of the trade 8 out of ten times.
sorry zach love you man but those are the stats .
tao jones
sorry zach love you man but those are the stats .
tao jones
1 reply
Zach Bass
Thanks tao jones, I have to admit that was a boned-headed call. If I recall I called it the Perfect Storm and suggested that people load up their dry powder and get ready for the following day. So, yes I deserve the castigation.
But in my defense I must point out the conditions. AAPL, as well as all the indexes, plotted bullish hammers that day, and most respected analysts called for a rally the next day. But we were in a downtrend, and the advice should have been more cautionary.
What surprises me is that you had a completely contrary take on the market. The other thing that surprises me is that you say that I put you on the wrong side of 8 out of 10 trades after that. That's really confusing, because other than that single day, my analysis has been spot on with market conditions during this entire downturn. So, you'll have to help me understand this dichotomy.
But in my defense I must point out the conditions. AAPL, as well as all the indexes, plotted bullish hammers that day, and most respected analysts called for a rally the next day. But we were in a downtrend, and the advice should have been more cautionary.
What surprises me is that you had a completely contrary take on the market. The other thing that surprises me is that you say that I put you on the wrong side of 8 out of 10 trades after that. That's really confusing, because other than that single day, my analysis has been spot on with market conditions during this entire downturn. So, you'll have to help me understand this dichotomy.
11 months ago
in Apple Investors, the Bear is Back on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach I'm getting whiplash here! your going from strong bullish signals to hell in a hand-basket over a weekend. I think we need to re consider the time frames of your tea leave reading. i'm not finding anything particularly useful in your analysis lately.
1 reply
Zach Bass
I know, I feel the same way! I personally feel like I'm caught in the froth of a crashing wave. These wild swings are characteristic of a down market at transition. The best I can do in these situations is provide what I see in multiple time frames. If you look back at my analysis in the past few posts you'll see that I refer to the weekly, daily and 60 minute time frames and how they are influencing one another.
For example, yesterday's post I mentioned that the daily charts looked bullish, yet the 60 minute charts were bearish to indeterminate. When you have conflicting signals like this, all you can do is provide your best guess on both sides of the equation.
In past posts I have referred to the weekly timeframes as being much more favorable. Now some might conclude that the higher order charts (larger time frame like the weeklies) might have more influence over the lower order charts. And while this is true in a general case, it is not so true during periods of transition. It is typically the opposite, where the 60 minute charts lead the way, and they change with the direction of the wind.
So, I apologize that my analysis has been frothy, and I wish there was a better answer, but there isn't. This is why during this period I have recommended to stay on the sidelines. It is the best advice I can give, and the best way to preserve your capital until there are better conditions from which to read market sentiment.
For example, yesterday's post I mentioned that the daily charts looked bullish, yet the 60 minute charts were bearish to indeterminate. When you have conflicting signals like this, all you can do is provide your best guess on both sides of the equation.
In past posts I have referred to the weekly timeframes as being much more favorable. Now some might conclude that the higher order charts (larger time frame like the weeklies) might have more influence over the lower order charts. And while this is true in a general case, it is not so true during periods of transition. It is typically the opposite, where the 60 minute charts lead the way, and they change with the direction of the wind.
So, I apologize that my analysis has been frothy, and I wish there was a better answer, but there isn't. This is why during this period I have recommended to stay on the sidelines. It is the best advice I can give, and the best way to preserve your capital until there are better conditions from which to read market sentiment.
11 months ago
in Survey: Apple’s New Low Margin Product on Investor in the Wilderness
awww Zach you did not list my choice!!! a few months back apple bought a small company that created the software we saw the news shows using to bring up election results (taping on maps and throwing demographics around i think we are going to see some sort of touch screen desktop… although reasonably it will manifest first as an ultra thin tablet the size of the macbook air first it may contain their own processor and be affordable to the best of us AND the rest of us (after this week i need some discounts)
1 reply
Zach Bass
Hey Bill, did you know you can add items to the list choices? There's a link at the bottom of the list that lets you add another choice. By the way, I agree that they'll come out with some sort of ultra notebook-tablet with a Touch interface, perhaps using a chipset from that company they bought some months back.
11 months ago
in Apple Dead Last in Exploited Horse Race? on Investor in the Wilderness
Dudess!
i was just laughing at some of the chatter on Zach's blog and i realized that the market does not know how to deal with a company actually making money instead of loosing Less than expected.I think actual profit scares the market.
i was just laughing at some of the chatter on Zach's blog and i realized that the market does not know how to deal with a company actually making money instead of loosing Less than expected.I think actual profit scares the market.
1 reply
lindseylohanscoinslot
Amen to that.
11 months ago
in Apple Dead Last in Exploited Horse Race? on Investor in the Wilderness
everyone will be "surprised!" at the good news and some Pc pundit will say " apple disappoints investors" and point out that 200 percent growth in a quarter is not 300 percent and a bunch of couch potatoes will nod in agreement and sell… then Warren Buffet will swoop in and quietly add some to his pile. sorry about the spelling i was schooled in the 50's and am a victim of phonetics!
1 reply
lindseylohanscoinslot
No, dude -- it's ZACH's spelling that sucks.
Agree with above. Macs could cure AIDS, cancer and the common cold AND resolve the mideast crisis -- the punditocracy, hedgies and MMs will still find something to drag AAPL down.
Agree with above. Macs could cure AIDS, cancer and the common cold AND resolve the mideast crisis -- the punditocracy, hedgies and MMs will still find something to drag AAPL down.
My beef with the bill is the speed they are trying to jam this thing down our throats. With this much money and the ramifications this will cause the face of American Capitalism DEMAND clear thinking. I mean it took over a year to ok the Sirius/XM deal and we want to do this in a week? THAT'S crazy.
I also feel that for every $ spent buying crap loans we put a $ towards a New Deal infrastructure project to put some asses to work. These loans wont pay themselves. People need jobs, we still need better high tech infrastructure and if we are going to dillute the dollar we might as well get some fiber optic, wimax, windmmill, new roads out of it.
Apologies for all the mis-spellings