DISQUS

Thom, trying to teach these socialists and whiners about the free market is like teaching a pig to sing. It's a waste of time and annoys the pig.



At this point, I say If the government steps in to attempt to stem the bleeding with taxpayer money who the hell cares. It's a better use than dumping $$$ into failing public schools. We have run up 11 trillion dollars in debt feeding welfare babies so they could grow up and have more welfare babies.

Big Earners pay 80% of the Income tax anyway. Anyone that knows anything about the tax code knows the rich are going to pay for this buyout and they will benefit from it the most. But everyone will benefit. The wage slaves pay Social Security and Medicare but those programs cost more than they take in.

As for the rest of the tin foil hat crowd, you'll make no progress teaching them. Their panties are in a twist that the FBI can trace them using public library computers to publish Anti-American propaganda and view NAMBLA material.

This has to happen periodically. The global "rules" that control capital are constantly changing so the way capital behaves changes. This is our payback for allowing risky mortgages and being unwilling to drill for our own oil. We had some good years on borrowed money and now the note has come due. We felt nice and sanctimonious about not drilling offshore malibu and in the tundra but that decision turned Russia and Venezuela into credible threats and made energy expensive and devalued the dollar.

It's time to "cowboy up." The way out of hard times is to decide not to participate.

Hey taojones,

I remember Sept 11th when we were minding out own business fixing everyone's teeth and bulding bridges when 2 guys took 3 trillion dollars out of the economy in roughly two hours. If you think America is the aggressor, you are the problem. America is not an imperialist nation. We leave if the rebuilt country wants us to and stay to defend them if they prefer. Our biggest problem is the people that we elect to choose our wars. Like when we were attacked by Japan and went to war with Germany or Harry Truman and Korea or JFK and Viet Nam for instance.

You sound like the folks that were opposed to the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after WWII.

All economies wax and wane. Having been young and unemployed during the late seventies, I remember when things were actually bad. I remember a national malaise and the misery index hovering around 20 (Unemployment % + Inflation rate %) as opposed to less hovering around 10 today.

Blaming Big Al is a little over the top. Oil Brought us here. Congressional mandates to make mortgages available to everyone regardless of risk brought us here. Maybe even budget deficits brought us here. All three of those go back to Congress. Big Al's job was to try and keep the economy growing at 3-4% with low inflation no matter what political, economic, or military event was thrown his way.

While I'm not his biggest fan, I remember him telling congress that their were huge dangers in continuing the current course with regard to deficits, entitlement spending, tax policy and other areas of congressional responsibility. Congress is responsible for the financial state of the country. They have the constitutional powers. If they delegate them to the Fed, they're still responsible.

Here's one of the reasons aapl was flat while the banks ran up.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/85882-mother-of....

If the Deagol model is correct, AAPL closed about 7 bucks under FMV of about 172. I am guilty, as are many, of buying it at 175, 180, 185, and 187.50. As of yesterday I am also guilty of buying at 165.59 down roughly 18% from the 202 all time high. When I bought at those higher levels, I had bought into the idea that the worst of the damage has been done and that major indices were on the bull trend. Thus I was buying future earnings growth. The exponential rise in commodities and falling dollar were not a part of my assessments. At 187.50 I was buying at almost 10% over FMV. How bright was that?

GS, among the best of the financials, is down 27.5% from 52 week high, Wachovia is down 85% from 52 week high, Lehman down 80%. Apple's competitor's by divisions...RIMM is down 25%, Dell is down 40%, MSFT is down 35%, Even the Googlesaurus is down a whopping 40%.

My gut level is that a lot of stocks are undervalued by a lot more than 4%, and they were run down the same way but fell a lot further because of fundamentals. Our favorite Apple has kept us from real pain by consistently delivering results.

Speculation swings to the downside as well as the upside. And when Joe Six Pack buys and sells he is also involved in setting the price point. If Joe Six pack hadn't helped overvalue it by 10%, it would have been less likely that the bigs could run it down 5%. I bought some of those puts and calls that helped set that max pain level too.

The bigs are not trying to trick us, they are trying to maximize returns out of the bucket of crap that happens when energy doubles YoY and the manufacturing base is emigrating to escape union labor and environmental regulation.

If Max Pain is where they make money, shame on us for not being prepared for that. Anyone that bought the bumps and sold the dips yesterday got what happens when you're on the wrong side of the trade. I hate it when it happens to me and I understand the pain, but my Number 1 rule is, stocks don't move in a straight line, and if you are correct on the trend, you'll eventually be OK. Secondary to that is: Any trend can end at any time. And like golf, the only shot that counts is your next shot. No fortune made or lost is permanent.

You either have the brains and guts to play here or you don't. You are playing against the best and the brightest. (I just have moderate brains, good instinct and guts) If you aren't up to it, there are safer ways to build wealth. But if the big kid keeps taking your lunch money, you can either learn to fight better or you can leave your money at home.

My bet is they looked at the price, they looked at Max Pain, they sensed all the fear after Google and RIMM and they decided that 165 could be done. On 13 Jul, I posted in this forum that I was looking to pick up the stock at 165. I did, and I hope it wasn't a mistake but it is what it is. We'll see whether I'm a hero or goat next week.

Happy Hunting

The main point of Sun Tzu is that the outcome of conflict is determined by foreknowledge of enemy AND ally, acted upon with preparation, speed, surprise and timing. He essentially postulates that the battle is won or lost before the troops are ever deployed because the commanders know what they know and will act accordingly.

TA is a supplement to doing solid research and due diligence as an investor. Solid research will tell you whether a company is making money, whether it's expanding it's business, and whether it controls intellectual, real or physical assets that you think are a money maker. All of these are most important but they can't tell you for sure whether a stock is going up or down from today's closing price. Perception sets the price on a daily basis. Fundamentals set the the trend over time. Fundamentals are the meat and potatoes that will deliver over the long term.

After doing solid research, TA may point to entry and exit points that will maximize profits and minimize losses to a degree. TA may get you an edge when everyone else knows everything about the stock worth knowing. A trader is successful if 1 or 2 great trades will provide a 10% return behind 6 flat or loss trades. Someone that makes great trades half the time is a "phenomenon".
Also, audacity, (guts, decisiveness) are important in conflict/competition. Having the edge of knowing what you want to do after you predicted certain herd behavior minimizes hesitation and gives an extra amount of confidence to stick with a plan and let it prosper.

TA is the prediction of fear and greed within the herd based on accumulated observations.

I sold short to cover my longs when I saw what was happening, but it still didn't keep me from taking a 2% loss. (I should have doubled down) But I'm wondering if it's actually the high P/E, the long wait for the next positive event, and the fact that Apple normally magnifies Nasdaq action by 5x during swings such as Jan -April. There's nothing to buoy the stock in the face of so many bears.

Admittedly I'm completely novice to TA but the charts of 15,16, and 17 Apr show the same type of volume as today in the first few days after a 9.5% selloff. That was followed with a 20% plus move in about a month. We just had another 9.5% selloff - what's the diff? other than proximity to the 210-235 target prices.