How can Balthar be Bush if he is head of the conquered nation? He is closer to a Vichy France type guy I think. Or perhaps the president of Iraq presented as nothing more than a puppet.
I haven't seen a clear Bush analogy yet because the Cylons are "the Americans" in this allegory, and they run by group consensus and vote rather than having a single leader.
OTOH, the show is pretty clear on the fact that the suicide bombing strategy is a bad one, and an morally wrong one. At least if they are going to make an Al Qaeda analogy, they're showing it as a 'bad thing'.