DISQUS

Excellent post Morgan!

I know I'm repeating myself, but I'm not so hot on the uptick yet.

1. The year of the Jumbo ARM reset - This year the higher end is going to be hit like the low end was last year. It's almost like we have a two-teired market now.

2. We have $420B worth of ARM resets next year and going into 2011 - There's going to be a whole other wave of this if we don't get massive refis or loan mods done, that on top of the worst unemployment rate in CA since the Great Depression.

As someone said on CNBC yesterday, this is going to be a W shaped recovery. I don't see "full" recovery until 2012, but I hope I'm wrong.

Thank you Cindy!!!! As Blownmortgage is a daily routine, I always looked forward to the new "quickies" twice a day.

Sorry to hear revenue is down Morgan...

Will this EVER END????? GAAAAAA!!!!!

Whatever, Kramer!!! All the King's Horses and All the King's Men just ain't gonna put CNBC back together again, IT SUCKS!!! One of their top people left in early Feb. and has not been replaced. They need to get a grip and start reporting NEWS! Bloomberg is kicking their ASS right now! Thanks Morgan!

Constantine, I heard this the other day on NPR, it was EXCELLENT! Anyone could understand it. It was done with a little humor, which worked . Thank you for blogging on it!!!

Morgan, I like Rick Santelli, but that raise of hands by the traders in the pit was like the foxes raising their hands in the hen house.

And Scott is right, CNBC sucks. If I weren't in this business, I'd never watch it again. I'm tired Barbie, oh excuse me, Melissa Francis tag teaming with Kudlow every morning (the two that were LAUDING Santelli) if they don't tout the "free market" line exactly how they see it. Bill Griffith, Sue Herrera and Dillion Radigan are few of the decent people left. Times are so tough, Ron Insana came back and he looks REAL uncomfortable with these loudmouths in the morning. Squak isn't too bad, I like Mark Haynes and Erin Burnett is one of the few serious journalist left on the channel. Maria B is ok but John Harwood looks like he's about had it.

I swear, if I could get Bloomberg in my office, I'd watch that. CNBC is a friggin' joke.

Morgan,

Thanks for posting that, it's the first time I've seen it. It's awesome and sad at the same time.

It's VERY well done!

Thank you!

Morgan, check this out. So I was talking to an agent today who has a listing that's a short sale. My buyers put in an offer. The bank has ALL the paperwork and is putting off, day by day, any decision of approval of the offer. The listing agent said that since Obama rolled out his plan yesterday, the banks are suddenly giving everyone "attitude" and taking it out on everyone else. It's just breathtaking, we give them billions to help get things going, and we get stabbed in the back. These are the greediest MF'ers EVER!!!!

I'm working with various buyers now who were patient and have good heads on their shoulders. It's so encouraging to see these savy, younger buyers with realistic expectations. They are great to work with and it's great to see them getting into homes that they can afford with traditional financing. The market seems to be correcting at the lower end. It's giving me hope. You can get a 1700 sq ft home on a 5-7K lot in Temecula for $200K or less these days. And, I have a buyer in escrow for a condo in Palm Desert we negotiated on with the bank for $262.5K, a great deal for both sides. YAY! Sales are up, but people need to leave greed at the door.

I'm hoping I can do more business on the loan side. I'm hoping there still will be a role for wholesale.

Morgan, this is a VERY GOOD map! What you need to start watching is the coastal areas this year. The word is that the Jumbo ARMs are resetting en masse this year and we're going to finally see values drop in the more "unaffected" areas on the coast. Downtown La Jolla has condos on short sale and we are seeing more and more defaults on loans.

I predicted a 50 percent correction in the San Diego market back in '03 and people were ready to have me committed. We're now at a 42 percent plus correction and dropping. I've now been hearing 60 percent from some people. That would put us at averages of mid 90's prices, probably where values should be.

One bright spot, the lower end homes in decent areas are getting snatched up and fast, some by first-time home buyers, some by vulture investors picking the meat off the bones WAY too early. Things are moving! Let's just hom\pe Fannie and Freddie lighten up on the guidelines. The mortgage side is a freakin' MESS!!! Conforming loans can be done, it's just taking a LOT of work.

Cheers Morgan! Hope all is well with you!

Good article!!! Thanks! The blame game on CRA is a diversion on what really caused the crises, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, interest rates being kept too low for too long, greed, lax u/w standards, greed, no enforcement of the regs on the books and more greed.

Collateral, I wasn't pointing the finger at you. Constantine didn't fully upload the article. He added more. You're cool, my finger pointing was at HIM!!!

Um, you want to ADD those. It equals 29.3 percent. No we weren't in a "recession", we were in DEPRESSION.

HELLO, S & P was off 89% from it's high and unemployment was somewhere between 25 and 33 percent.

"So there really is no technical definition for a depression." Uh, yes there is, just like there is a techincal definition of a recession, which is two contiguous quarters of contracting GDP.

Riduclous comment.

Technically, a depression occurs when the economy contracts 10%. In the early 30's, we contracted 30%, thus a Great Depression. This country has seen many depressions, but the one in the 30's was oviously the worst. I think we contracted 4 or 5% in the recession of '82 or '83.

We'll be lucky if we don't go further than that this time.

Palin? Right. What EV, dude. My dog has a higher IQ. And I see Newt is still wrapped up in the culture wars. Earth to Newt, it's not 1994 anymore.

And Jeremy, if we would have taken that "hands off approach" we would have slipped into facism or communism.

Some people never learn.

First off, we can't let the car industry in this country just fade away. The Fed will probably have to sieze it and kick that toxic culture out at the top.

I think only the bare minimum will get done. Pick up Jonathan Alter's "The Defining Moment". FDR would not sign on to anything until he came into office. Hoover hated his guts. Obama seems to be stepping aside and make Bush OWN this meltdown. BTW, Obama is reading that book right now, or re-reading it.

I've been thinking about the date for Inauguration Day being changed by FDR. Thank God he did that. Can you imagine waiting until MARCH for the change over?? YIKES!!!

There's no easy way out of this. We are in a new era. Did anyone ever have long converstions with their grandparents on getting through the Great Depression? If you did, remember their words.

We're going to have to give up our toys we never really could afford, hold on to our cars longer, buy good with cash, stash cash into savings, settle for smaller homes, clip coupons and consider vacations a luxury. Credit cards to be used only for emergencies. And that's the way it's going to be, not for months but for years.

The credit binge that started in the early 80's is over. At least we're living in reality now.

The agent you spoke with is pretty wise. Yes, people are scooping up opportunities down here in SD County. There are some terrific buys down here. She is so right, people will start looking at houses as homes FIRST, an investment second. Sam Zell said the same thing about a year ago.

I like CRay's comments.

Let's not blame the workers in this. The union bashing is a loser issue. Who's decision was it NOT to change the business model 35 years ago after the first oil shock. These companies (like a lot of American companies, union and non-union) were poorly run, and had no vision...never looking past the next quarter.

You may want to get off those RNC talking points on Reid and Pelosi.

I knew when Bush got in there he'd drive this economy into the ground, and you can thank that ass clown Phil Gramm for being one of the main architects of the mortgage meltdown.

Great take, CVH!!!

Thanks for posting! I was wondering what some realtor was screaming about at one of my caravan meetings last week. She was talking about this, and I thought....HUH??

Thanks for clarifying.....

Thank you, Constantine. Timely. Our local PBS radio station ran a story on a vet in Riverside County who was re-enlisting so they could make their mortgage payments. It's been very, very hard on military families.

Exactly!!!!!!!!! That's the only thing they could come up with to keep the economy going. The plan was to mortgage ourselves to death and let someone else clean up the mess.

BTW, Morgan....so now we're going to bailout INSURANCE COMPANIES????? I'm almost ready to vote for Bob Barr.

What I'm asking, and Morgan please step in, is who is going to end up owning all the "bad paper"? When I say bad paper, I mean the $420b of ARMs that are resetting in less than three years. As real estate values continue to fall, and job losses mount, we're in for a repeat of this year in 2011. If we don't get those loan modified or refied, what the HELL are we going to do? No one is talking about it except for this blog and a few of my friends.

Did I miss something or am I going insane? Morgan????

And add Greenspan, Gramm and a gov't that left regulation and enforcement out the door.

That video should be required watching by every American. It was really powerful.

Thanks for posting it, Morgan