DISQUS

Huggy is not the Chimp Trainer. If you pay a little closer attention, you will see that Huggy usually posts a bunch of up to the minute quotes on recent sales, median stats, etc then usually implodes into a rant of some sort directed at someone specific - borne out of the total frustration he feels about the ridiculous chimp fling that dominates these comments. I (the Chimp Trainer) on the other hand try (and trust me I am starting to get a feeling for what an uphill battle it is) to give anyone who cares to learn a little bit some background info so they can actually figure out for themselves that so much of what is written by the commenters here is baseless. See Wrong & Wrong Bill (the second comment on this thread) above for an example.

Huggy is not the Chimp Trainer. I promise you.

You have an $800K for a 40 x 112 property that you couldn't get a conventional loan on do to the fact that the interior was gutted. Taking the worst set of circumstances and then trying to extrapolate that across the market makes as much sense as taking the high comp (1900 Laurel for example) and doing the same thing. Sorry, no banana for you today.

Anyone ever notice how "anon9" rhymes with "assanine"? Seriously, we live in a beach town. If you really want to grow vegetables in your sideyard .... MOVE!!!! Don't blame your neighbor for playing within the rules of the game. Small houses in MB are priced/valued based on their full development potential. Lots are small, so the ONLY way to build a decent size house that is worth what it cost to do it is to build out close to the max allowed (3200 +/- in the Trees for example). This is not unique to MB. Same principle applies worldwide in prime coastal real estate.

Sorry anon - still no banana today. You contradict yourself over and over and over. First you say "most of the agent/developer homes are either in foreclosure on well on their way" then we go with "there isnt a ton of agent or developer owned lots/cottages out there waiting to hit the market ". Then to add a little clarity we finish up with "you can see these homes out there, they are pretty obvious". Finally , "developers and agents had a backlog of properties that they could bulldoze and build on, because that was smart business" Developers don't keep a "backlog" of teardowns in Manhattan Beach. There way to expensive to carry. I'd give you a banana just to be a good sport but I honestly don't think you could get it peeled today.

No banana for anon Nice generalizations - "most of those (agent's) homes are either in foreclosure or well on their way". Yet another mudslinger talking about what he does not know. There are 66 properties in various stages of foreclosure in Manhattan Beach. Most of these will never get all the way to a foreclosure sale (they hit the radar as soon as the get a Notice of Default filed which is a long way from being foreclosed on). Of these 66 properties, three are owned by real estate agents. Incredible how many people come on this blog and make comments when they have NO IDEA what they are talking about.

As you know, this is a very difficult tribe of chimps to train. I try from time to time but find the overall effort worthless. The pack animal mentality is incredible. Throw one banana in the cage and they go on for days.

1602 5th and 1812 palm are screeching deals it would take being a chimp not to figure out

Huggy is not C.T. - we are not in agreement on everything. I actually think some people here have some very interesting points even though most fall into the Chicken Little/Chinese Drywaller catch bin

I predict the chimps will have a field day on this thread. Way to tee it up MBC

This is actually a pretty good comp at $2.5M. Yes, its is down 10% from three years ago but that doesn't really qualify as an example of crashing prices. It was priced within 10% of value and sold quickly. This house had been listed on and off for almost a year at way over $3M. What the average chimp will fail to see is that the plateau really never was a $3M+ market. This house was nice but nothing special. Seller is a very well off pro athlete who just wanted to move on - so somebody got a decent buy. Interesting parallel to the house at 204 19th. Same builder built basically the same house at 204 19th Street. Also owned by a wealthy pro athlete who has left town. Someone will make a good buy on that one as well.

When I find one I like, I will buy it or broker it to a client, not broadcast it here. You can write about it when I'm done.

Sorry - kids took over at the end there. Chimp Revolt is doomed - will not succede to the levels forecasted.

First of all, you're only talking about a couple dozen houses that sold for $2.5+ in the Tree Section in 05-06. Most of these owners owe $1.5 or less on their properties so few if any of them will even be re-financing. Further, they weren't "cookie cutter" houses. The places that sold for those numbers were in strong locations and built by high end developers. The houses in B locations with floorplan/finish challenges being sold now by developers with construction loans they can't extend and banks are not relative to those homes.

Hint: Developers aren't going to build more houses and sell them below cost. Even if they wanted to, the construction lenders won't "enable" them. This is as cheap as you'll ever buy a new house in the Tree Section. Once these last few new spec homes with construction loans on them work there way out of the market, its game over for the bottom fishers.

Actually Huggy this would be yout hybrid - Astronaut/Chimp <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ham_the_Chimp" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ham_the_Chimp

don't forget to pick up your peels before you leave

Much more difficult to understand than you seem to think. Lots of nuances - which is why some make millions and some lose big money in BOTH up and down markets. The more you understand the nuances the better off you are when you pull the trigger. Land values, construction costs, financing costs, equity requirements and inventory supply change practically daily. Nothing is static. Zoning changes constantly affect what can be built and consequently market values. Remodeling strategy, whether to tear down your existing residence or buy a lot if your going to build new home. Property tax assesment ramifications of the same. Which properties can/can't block views, deed restrictions and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the various archirtects, contractors, real estate brokers, mortgage brokers, etc are all a part of "getting it". Trust me if you think its that simple you don't get it. RE Nostradamus is this blogs version of the class clown who just isn't funny - just plain stupid.

NoBrainsDumbAss You are such a waste of oxygen its incredible. You have no clue what you're talking about. Please stop littering this website with your senseless dribble. Please.

Only in this one-sided forum could such a ludicrous question be posed and not seem facetious. Try hiring an agent. Despite the rantings on the chimp bandwagon, the fact remains that a good agent is the answer to your question. There are plenty of them out there. Granted there is a greater number that would be of no real assistance, however a strong agent who specializes in the specific geographic area you are interested in will provide you far more information than simply what is listed and what is in escrow. Off market deals, historic sales, projects in the pipeline, zoning restrictions & changes to name a few things.

Interesting - I just posted the same basic thought a couple hours ago and it was "deleted by assministrator" as soon as I hit post

Here's a better question What would your boss do if he knew you spent your workday sending out hypothetical questions to a website about something you have no intention of doing... you remind me of the yahoos that call into the talk radio shows just to pile on some topic when you have nothing to add. Sorry no banana for you today.

Waiting to buy a Burger, There you go again talking about things you have ZERO understanding of. At least you have a lot of company here. First of all, The $3.6M the developer paid was for two 30 x 90 lots, 229 24th and 223 24th. You then go on to show off your complete lack of understanding about development costs by surmising the developer would break even at $4.995 had they paid $3.6 for the site. For one thing, $300/sf is probably light for a 3 story house in the sand section. And who do you think pays for $500,000 in carrying costs, $200,000 in commission, $50,000 in property taxes??? I think your statement that "its important not to overpay for an investment" pretty much shows the extent of your investment knowledge. Back to burger sampling. Don't go over $3.00 for an In & Out.

Sytabilization of the banking industry. Major banks will survive. The federal government has already told us this. Interest rates on residential loans will reach generational lows this year and some people (very few chimps) will recognize that the alignment of this fact with the fact that homes can now be bought BELOW REPLACEMENT COST as an opportunity that won't soon be duplicated. 3. America will prevail. If you disagree, stop reading and start feeding. Bananas for everyone! The whole deal is a consumer confidence issue. There are plenty of people in MB that can easily afford to make a move. There are a greater number who really want to move for a variety of reasons. New kids, kids off to college, divorce death, etc. - an economy in recession does not stop the march of father time on individual families. As confidence returns the normal rotation of musical chairs will reinstate itself.

A few reasons why things might improve #1 1. Given the fact that there is literrally ZERO new construction underway in MB right now, the supply of new homes will soon dwindle down to only the Class C inventory (from either a location or quality standpoint - or both). This may take 3 months it may take 12, either way it will happen. At that point in time, DEMAND for quality new construction (from BOTH a location and quality standpoint) will begin to have its effect on the market. People who are doing well will seek out quality (not settle for the leftover spec houses on busy streets). This re-emerging demand for high quality new homes will quickly cause an upward movement in the cost of building sites and the value of new homes and the top quality developers will re-ener the market. There are always people who are doing well, they will not settle for 3rd best stuff. Demand will return.