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Jeff
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7 months ago
in Capitulation on StockRake
Looks like you and me both decided enough was enough today. Very frustrating...
1 reply
8 months ago
in Get Ready For Ridiculous VIX and VXN Numbers on StockRake
I thought we'd get closer to 100. I'm buying here but don't get me wrong, I'm concerned. I just don't thing shorting here is smart.
1 reply
StockRake
Considering I just bought BRCM and quickly sold it...then bought QID...you are probably right.
My head is nowhere good right now.
This whole move has been a momentum trade that has been painfully obvious, but one would think overbought/oversold/other sentiment indicators would have mattered, but they haven't mattered at all. Thats the thing that has been the most interesting.
My head is nowhere good right now.
This whole move has been a momentum trade that has been painfully obvious, but one would think overbought/oversold/other sentiment indicators would have mattered, but they haven't mattered at all. Thats the thing that has been the most interesting.
8 months ago
in Dear VIX You SUCK on StockRake
One crazy market. Nippled some long etf's near the close, just off the bottom. I'm away you've been bullish as of late...did you add at the close? Mind you my positions are quite small compared with what you seem to dabble in and I stay away from the double etf's for now. Way to much volatility.
1 reply
StockRake
Just QLD purchase. Its taking everything in my power to hang on here. I have some friends that capitulated today - No mas.
8 months ago
in Sold QLD, UYG, Kept UWM In Case There Is More Upside on StockRake
awesome trading. you must have nerves of steel, because there is no way I could have sat thru those decline no matter how convinced i was a rally was coming.
1 reply
StockRake
I actually went and annotated a VIX chart to show the divergence between the highs made today and the negative divergence in MACD/PPO as a response to your comment. That's one of the things I was looking at this morning when I went in. Then I saw you already posted the same thing! Nice job :D.
http://zentrader.ca/blog/?p=449
I was using the VIX as an intraday trigger inside the imaginary box that is the bigger timeframe indicators. Couple that with the 5min chart for ultimate entry and I'm in.
http://zentrader.ca/blog/?p=449
I was using the VIX as an intraday trigger inside the imaginary box that is the bigger timeframe indicators. Couple that with the 5min chart for ultimate entry and I'm in.
8 months ago
in Is Today Worse Than When We Hit The Lows? on StockRake
One of my scenerios is just as you stated above. Retest, meaningful rally....of course the other has us going into the abyss. Are you still holding any long etf's?
1 reply
StockRake
Yep, I got trapped in my 10-3-08 long in double beta index funds for NDX, SPX, and RUT. Mostly in NDX though there.
Bought QLD yesterday @ 40.88 the move has been brutal since yesterday!
Bought DRYS yesterday @ 23.37
Bought CSIQ yesterday @ 14.43
All of these are hurting, but its a two day event, so the amplitudes are obviously large, but could come back equally the same. To be down this much in a day and half is really a sign of how bad the volatility is right now, but the market can't sustain this kind of selling. I can't remember all the statistics, but 10 out of 11 days down, 28th day in a row triple digit moves, vix, vxn, new lows, $ of stocks at 52 week lows, etc..
Will I be shocked if "the market" makes an example out of the oversold dip buyers? No. That scenario would give the most people the most to think about over a long weekend.
Bought QLD yesterday @ 40.88 the move has been brutal since yesterday!
Bought DRYS yesterday @ 23.37
Bought CSIQ yesterday @ 14.43
All of these are hurting, but its a two day event, so the amplitudes are obviously large, but could come back equally the same. To be down this much in a day and half is really a sign of how bad the volatility is right now, but the market can't sustain this kind of selling. I can't remember all the statistics, but 10 out of 11 days down, 28th day in a row triple digit moves, vix, vxn, new lows, $ of stocks at 52 week lows, etc..
Will I be shocked if "the market" makes an example out of the oversold dip buyers? No. That scenario would give the most people the most to think about over a long weekend.
8 months ago
in What A Week So Far on StockRake
I really don't know what makes sense right now, but the markets could bounce anytime soon or not at all. But if we do start to move up soon, it could carry us into the elections, with all the media rah-rahing the return of the bull causing many lemmings to jump into the markets only to see the markets reverse shortly after the election. I don't think many people are thinking about buying this market which causes me to think it's the smart play right now.
1 reply
StockRake
Lets not forget the big players (wall street), need to make their year end bonuses.
ie pump time.
ie pump time.
9 months ago
in I’m Heavily Long As Of Today’s Close on StockRake
While I do agree that we are oversold, I'm not so sure I could muster the courage to be heavy long or short given the uncertainty surronding these markets. I feel the primary trend is down and I'll be looking to enter some shorts on the next rally. I wish you the best come Monday morning.
1 reply
StockRake
No question the primary trend is down. Its been down, essentially, since January. I will also short the rally as well. Thanks for the luck!
I'm most likely holding this trade till Friday's close and will reevaluate then. Monday could be a huge intraday reversal to kick off the up week I anticipate. If this week is not up more than say 60 pts in the compx, I'll hold another week long and after that, start shorting any upside for the last and likely final drop before a new bull run starts. By the time the last leg down is over we will probably be into December and then we'll usher in a rally starting in very early 2009.
I'm most likely holding this trade till Friday's close and will reevaluate then. Monday could be a huge intraday reversal to kick off the up week I anticipate. If this week is not up more than say 60 pts in the compx, I'll hold another week long and after that, start shorting any upside for the last and likely final drop before a new bull run starts. By the time the last leg down is over we will probably be into December and then we'll usher in a rally starting in very early 2009.
What I want to see is if these divergences are still there after the swoon downwards.
http://www.stockrake.com/weekly-divergence-in-t...
If the divergences are gone, then I want to see severe oversold conditions on the daily charts. The monthly chart is showing an oversold level only seen a few times in its history.