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Gumdrop
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6 months ago
in Gizmodo Reports that Apple’s CEO Steve Jobs’ Health is Failing on Investor in the Wilderness
"I think AAPL could lose as much as 25% of it’s value in the next couple of days."
Note taken.
Note taken.
1 reply
6 months ago
in Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing on Investor in the Wilderness
Right even better
h t t p://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Harami.htm
The fact that you are deliberately trying to mislead thousands of people with your weblog I find despicable and disgusting.
h t t p://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Harami.htm
The fact that you are deliberately trying to mislead thousands of people with your weblog I find despicable and disgusting.
1 reply
Zach Bass
I'm sorry gumdrop, but you're exposing your incredible ignorance when it comes to technical analysis. This is not a bullish harami, as you indicate by your link. Please leave the analysis to experts. First of all, we printed a black candle, not a white one. Plus, the range of price was in the lower half of the previous day.
And it is quite obvious that you have neither the skill or experience to level such charges against my analysis. Just because it doesn't agree with your jaded view, does mean that it's not correct.
As it stands now, I have warned you too many times, and I'm going to moderate your comments. If they start improving, I'll let them through, but up to this point, you haven't provided any value to this blog, you've simply been an annoyance.
And it is quite obvious that you have neither the skill or experience to level such charges against my analysis. Just because it doesn't agree with your jaded view, does mean that it's not correct.
As it stands now, I have warned you too many times, and I'm going to moderate your comments. If they start improving, I'll let them through, but up to this point, you haven't provided any value to this blog, you've simply been an annoyance.
6 months ago
in Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing on Investor in the Wilderness
http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20T...
Fool. Any idiot can get their investment advice from the internet.
Fool. Any idiot can get their investment advice from the internet.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Yes, and wouldn't you know, I'm on the Internet and thousands come here for my analysis. I'm glad you decided to finally contribute something to the blog. Your link looks to be a pretty good resource. Thanks. Just try to keep the vitriol to a minimum, it's very unbecoming.
6 months ago
in Apple Investors Step Away From the Distortion Field on Investor in the Wilderness
You're getting a little testy there Zach. You see, I never claimed to be an authority on anything. You did.
I just call it like I see it, and how I see it is you are full of shit. Your 'predictions' aren't based on anything other than you really, really, want AAPL and the stock market to go down. Then you then use a few charts and other stuff to make you sound authoritative to try to convince other people that you seem to know what you are talking about. Well you don't 'really' know what you are talking about and that is backed up by some pretty solid evidence- you have been absolutely wrong about everything, every single thing, for months now.
I mean why don't you just admit that you were wrong??? What is such a big deal about that? Are you so full of hubris that you can't admit your past mistakes?? I normally wouldn't bother but there might be some gullible people out there who take your advice and lose their money. They have no recourse now and are stuck in a losing position because of you. Are you worried that someone might sue you because they took your bad advice? I would be.
I just call it like I see it, and how I see it is you are full of shit. Your 'predictions' aren't based on anything other than you really, really, want AAPL and the stock market to go down. Then you then use a few charts and other stuff to make you sound authoritative to try to convince other people that you seem to know what you are talking about. Well you don't 'really' know what you are talking about and that is backed up by some pretty solid evidence- you have been absolutely wrong about everything, every single thing, for months now.
I mean why don't you just admit that you were wrong??? What is such a big deal about that? Are you so full of hubris that you can't admit your past mistakes?? I normally wouldn't bother but there might be some gullible people out there who take your advice and lose their money. They have no recourse now and are stuck in a losing position because of you. Are you worried that someone might sue you because they took your bad advice? I would be.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Last straw Gumdrop. Unless you direct your comments to the posts, and stop with the ad hominem attacks, you will be blocked. Fair warning. This is my blog, not yours.
6 months ago
in Apple Investors Step Away From the Distortion Field on Investor in the Wilderness
You're starting to sound like a broken record player here Zach. Its time that you take an objective look at yourself in that you have become emotionally attached to your short position.
Fact is is that you are an amateur... so stop pretending to know things that you don't know. You are misleading people.
Fact is is that you are an amateur... so stop pretending to know things that you don't know. You are misleading people.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Since you are such an authority, perhaps you could offer some constructive counter arguments instead of simply bashing. It's really getting old, and you're adding nothing to the dialog.
I've been patient to this point Gumdrop, but unless you start retorting with cogent arguments and address the points, rather than spewing hyperbole, then I'm going to block you.
I've been patient to this point Gumdrop, but unless you start retorting with cogent arguments and address the points, rather than spewing hyperbole, then I'm going to block you.
6 months ago
in Jobs One More Thing No More on Investor in the Wilderness
Name one billionaire who has made his/her wealth using TA. No name me one millionaire. No name me one person who has even managed to break even using TA. Using TA forces you to be a terrible investor. People who use TA Buy High and Sell Low. It is the absolute worst way to invest.
Case in point.
Zach Bass told people to short the market at the bottom. AT THE BOTTOM.
Zach Bass used TA on the *ViX and said the *VIX was headed for a huge breakout. The *VIX has since come down.
Zach Bass said the S&P was headed down to 666. I mean WTF?? give me a break!
Zach Bass has been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME because he only uses TA.
Zach Bass is not even a real investor. He holds a few short ETF's. What kind of portfolio is that? His net worth is probably under 5 digits.
He is just a charlatan who managed to get on the Google home page somehow.
He isn't even that good at TA!
Case in point.
Zach Bass told people to short the market at the bottom. AT THE BOTTOM.
Zach Bass used TA on the *ViX and said the *VIX was headed for a huge breakout. The *VIX has since come down.
Zach Bass said the S&P was headed down to 666. I mean WTF?? give me a break!
Zach Bass has been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME because he only uses TA.
Zach Bass is not even a real investor. He holds a few short ETF's. What kind of portfolio is that? His net worth is probably under 5 digits.
He is just a charlatan who managed to get on the Google home page somehow.
He isn't even that good at TA!
2 replies
Zach Bass
Gumdrop, all you can come up with are rhetorical arguments that are nothing more than logical fallacies. If you don't like my analysis, you could either present a counter argument or simply don't reply. I'm not sure why you waste your time.
TA is a way to analyze the behavior and sentiment of the markets. All I can do is provide a relative probability of a market direction base don that analysis. This market in particular has been so volatile that most traditional patterns have broken down, and from a fundamental side this market has completely ignored the traditional factors a longer term investor might key on.
Fundamental simply don't apply with a VIX above 45. I will say from a fundamental point of view, that a flight to quality should be our mantra going forward, because those companies that have strong balance sheets with little debt will ultimately win this race. But for now, even quality companies are getting hammered.
TA is a way to analyze the behavior and sentiment of the markets. All I can do is provide a relative probability of a market direction base don that analysis. This market in particular has been so volatile that most traditional patterns have broken down, and from a fundamental side this market has completely ignored the traditional factors a longer term investor might key on.
Fundamental simply don't apply with a VIX above 45. I will say from a fundamental point of view, that a flight to quality should be our mantra going forward, because those companies that have strong balance sheets with little debt will ultimately win this race. But for now, even quality companies are getting hammered.
Bryan
gumdrop,
Zach was saying (what you described above) may happen.
I still think the market may go down to retest 7400 or possibly lower in the next couple of years.
The VIX may still spike. Perhaps we get real panic in mid 2009 or right after 4Q is announced and retailers start lining up for bankruptcy? These are all things to look for.
Technical Analyst is just a tool. If Apple is trading at 15 times earnings - I'm a buyer based on valuations. If Apple is at 40 p/e I'm out. TA is used to spot resistance and support.
Discussion is old.
Zach was saying (what you described above) may happen.
I still think the market may go down to retest 7400 or possibly lower in the next couple of years.
The VIX may still spike. Perhaps we get real panic in mid 2009 or right after 4Q is announced and retailers start lining up for bankruptcy? These are all things to look for.
Technical Analyst is just a tool. If Apple is trading at 15 times earnings - I'm a buyer based on valuations. If Apple is at 40 p/e I'm out. TA is used to spot resistance and support.
Discussion is old.
7 months ago
in Apple Analysts Reality Check this Bear Rally is Over on Investor in the Wilderness
How are you different from any of the other analysts exactly? Is it because you work for yourself? Do you work for yourself? Who do you work for really? Somehow you've managed to get on the google page and now you spread FUD to prop up your short position. How despicable is that? Who is the 'ego driven syncophant'?
Fact is the failure of the auto bailout is good for stocks in the long run.
Fact is Apple is one of the greatest American companies ever.
Fact is AAPL is the most undervalued stock in the stock market.
Fact is any dip in the sock price is a buying opportunity.
Fact is trend trading doesn't work and you will lose all of your money.
So my advise to you is to short as much AAPL stock as you can so you can take the ass reaming, you deserve, that is coming to you.
Fact is the failure of the auto bailout is good for stocks in the long run.
Fact is Apple is one of the greatest American companies ever.
Fact is AAPL is the most undervalued stock in the stock market.
Fact is any dip in the sock price is a buying opportunity.
Fact is trend trading doesn't work and you will lose all of your money.
So my advise to you is to short as much AAPL stock as you can so you can take the ass reaming, you deserve, that is coming to you.
1 reply
Zach Bass
I agree with 80% of what you say. By the way, I do work for myself and I'm effectively holding a short position, but it's not AAPL. I'm holding the UltraShort ProShares ETF that tracks the S&P 500 with the ticker SDS. I also have a very small position in a couple of the new 3X ETFs.
7 months ago
in Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows on Investor in the Wilderness
Oh and doing TA on the price premium of derivatives(-vix)is totally meaningless, because it is not a market with participants. Its like doing TA on the employment figures...
You are so full of shit.
You are so full of shit.
1 reply
Zach Bass
That shows you how much you know. The VIX, as well as other derivatives are excellent models for technical analysis. In fact I find TA works more reliably with the VIX than common equities, because it's insulated from news events.
7 months ago
in Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows on Investor in the Wilderness
Desperate desperate man. Of course you want the market to go down because you are trapped in your short position. So when the market rallies another 20% will you cover then? Trend trading never works because the trend ALWAYS changes. Shorting opens you up to infinite losses. Are you prepared to take on infinite losses in your insistence that the market must make it to your inane 666 level? Smart money covered their shorts in October Zack. You are not smart money. You were right on the way down, but you are sounding a little too greedy here. You are treading dangerous ground here Zack. Remember, Pigs get fat but Hogs get slaughtered.
1 reply
Zach Bass
I don't care which way the market goes, I just call them like I see them. By the way, the saying is Bulls make money, Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
7 months ago
in Apple Falls Flat, Market Rebounds on Investor in the Wilderness
So it looks like you've got yourself in a pickle here. Now the question is Zack, will you cover your short position here at $90, or take your loss higher at $110 or beyond? Potential losses on short positions are INFINTE so you have to cover at some time. The question is is whether you will have ANY money left. Trend trading is ALWAYS wrong because the trend never goes on forever. I don't feel sorry for you. I just feel sorry for the people who are now trapped in a short position near the bottom with you and because of you...
good luck dude...
good luck dude...
1 reply
Zach Bass
Well, if you subscribed to my email alerts then you would know that I provided guidance in this situation. In my alert I said there would be significant resistance at 839, and that if we failed the test, then the market would go down hard. If we surged through 839, then shorts would need to cover and price would shoot up. But even in that case, I don't think this rally will have legs. It may last another day, but not much more. By the way, I sent out these alerts to subscribers:
The first shows the triangle we are in suggesting the top has resistance at 880:
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/2008/...
Later I sent this alert describing two scenarios that could happen around an 839 pivot point.
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/2008/...
You can see all the alert that I send to subscribers in the archive here:
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/
The first shows the triangle we are in suggesting the top has resistance at 880:
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/2008/...
Later I sent this alert describing two scenarios that could happen around an 839 pivot point.
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/2008/...
You can see all the alert that I send to subscribers in the archive here:
http://www.zacharybass.com/alerts/archive/
I didn't say AAPL would lose 25% unconditionally.