Disqus - Latest Comments for oldprof

Re: Some Market Myths Hurt Investors

oldprof — Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:51:32 -0000

Cash on the sidelines? The response to this -- a seller for every buyer -- is glib and over-simplifies. If the seller has an asset allocation target, he does not take the cash out of the equity market. This means there is a net increase in equity demand. That is how you and I behave when we sell a stock, right? We are not necessarily looking to reduce equities. It usually means that something has hit a price target, or should be trimmed, and I move on to a more attractive candidate. And whoever sells to me does the same.

Conclusion: Cash on the sidelines can be important if buying represents an asset allocation change. A switch from bonds or gold or real estate or bitcoin is the same. And vice-versa.

Re: 500 Years Of Stock Panics, Bubbles, Manias, & Meltdowns (In 1 Simple Chart)

oldprof — Thu, 08 Jun 2017 17:33:41 -0000

I chart cover a long period needs a log scale for the index. If that were done, the conclusion about the FED era would look quite different. One of the ways to be one of the 50 "top blogs" is to sell fear.

Re: Ignore politics when investing until you cannot | Abnormal Returns

oldprof — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 12:15:22 -0000

Thanks for mentioning one of my favorite themes! With that in mind, I really like the approach you suggest here, and I try to do the same. The key is to distinguish between analyzing what probably will happen and what you personally hope will happen. Health and defense stocks are other examples right now.

We are currently analyzing portfolios for Obama and for a generic GOP candidate, and this is an excellent suggestion.

Jeff

Re: Pitching RIM to Warren Buffett | The Reformed Broker

oldprof — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 15:23:28 -0000

@ruben -- yes, I know. Much better security is the competitive advantage that RIMM has over competitors. Just google "blackberry security advantage" and you will see a lot of discussion.

Re: Pitching RIM to Warren Buffett | The Reformed Broker

oldprof — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 14:00:39 -0000

Excellent! Great fun. Is better security a moat? At least for core customers?

Re: Writing Books is Hard | The Reformed Broker

oldprof — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 16:49:19 -0000

Everything you are saying sounds right to me. Your book audience will be a bit different from your blog audience, although we will all learn from you on this subject.

Re: Forget the Kauffman Blogger Survey, here’s what they’re really saying

oldprof — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 00:11:36 -0000

Interesting and provocative interpretation. You might also be interested in my take ---

http://oldprof.typepad.com/...

Re: Fifth blogiversary Abnormal Returns

oldprof — Mon, 11 Oct 2010 15:27:00 -0000

Congratulations on a great five years! Your service has always been essential -- a daily "must read." The various changes have made it even better. I especially like the occasions when you highlight a particular theme. You use your wide range of sources, helping us all to see things we might otherwise miss.

Jeff

Re: $$ More Pessimism……MSM Heaps It On… Value Plays

oldprof — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:54:53 -0000

Davies is wrong about the GDP implications of the report. The ISM has studied the relationship and they report it every month. Here is what they said about this month:

"The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through August (57.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for August (56.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.8 percent increase in real GDP annually."

The intercept for the manufacturing survey is about 42. This recognizes the long-term decline of the manufacturing sector, even when the economy is growing. Few people understand this, and it is almost never reported.

Re: Bias-free investing Abnormal Returns

oldprof — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 21:04:47 -0000

Thanks for highlighting my work. Barry's list is excellent -- a good guide for anyone trying to keep an even keel. I also love sports analogies like your timely golf example. When trying to shake possible bias, it always helps to go into a different environment where the point may be clearer.

I love the recent articles that supplement your regular work on links. I am not sure where you find the time, but we all appreciate it.

Jeff

Re: What Would Kudlow Say? | Blog - Daily Options Report

oldprof — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:05:48 -0000

He would worry about any stones curling to the left!

Re: Everybody talks their book, everybody. Abnormal Returns

oldprof — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 19:52:14 -0000

Good piece on a needed topic. I'll cross it off of my own list. The only thing I would add is the idea of selling into strength after a "big voice" has touted something. Even then, it is normal to sell something into strength or to rebalance. This is very tricky to interpret.

Re: Valentine’s Day Lingerie Randomosity

oldprof — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 01:06:23 -0000

Hmm. I have a lot to learn. You run these pics and I used Slim Pickens. Good observations as usual....

Re: Perfectionism, happiness and trading Abnormal Returns

oldprof — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 01:32:01 -0000

Very nice -- very helpful, very wise.

Perhaps I'll be inspired to write something and link, but if not, you know I appreciated this work.

As I have written on my blog, I like the new theme was some seminal topics -- tossed up there for others to join in.

Jeff

Re: Steely McScam?

oldprof — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:38:04 -0000

The markets on Tradesports were interesting. Small offer at 1 and size at 5. A few seconds later, size bid at 99.5. Settled at 0.

It was an interesting opportunity.....Too bad I was writing and my viewing companion had TIVO control!

Re: And So We Go On

oldprof — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 20:12:24 -0000

"Because that put can now be purchased for $1.13, Huntington has gotten a 70 percent return." This is an interesting method for calculating return. Most of us think in terms of what we have risked. This may be a bit difficult to determine with a put sale. Do you implement a stop and view that as the risk? The stock price may gap dramatically lower. Do you make an estimate of how low the stock can go? How well would that have worked.

As usual, Adam is on the right track here.

Re: CME to the Rescue!

oldprof — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:08:21 -0000

One of my regular themes has been the role of leadership in policy formation. Unless you have a strong leader, with both vision and understanding, we are strictly reactive. Our entire process has a bias toward blocking change.