Disqus - Latest Comments for mvw

Re: http://lcmarket.blogspot.com/2009/05/10-year-treasuries-are-screaming-higher.html

Anti Thesis — Sat, 09 May 2009 19:55:58 -0000

Cause for consolidation/pull back, at the very least:

XLF: measured move tgt hit, approaching stiff bands of res:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_w...

es: Steeper up channel formed, steep channels are unsustainable, plus approaching confluence res.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_w...

Not saying bulls are doomed, but r:r no longer favors them, for the ST at least.

Re: Fractal? History often rhymes

Anti Thesis — Fri, 08 May 2009 12:07:53 -0000

Sounds plausible, but why sell now when they can get it even higher? Trade safe.

Re: Fractal? History often rhymes

Anti Thesis — Fri, 08 May 2009 11:01:32 -0000

Nice charts. I didn't even notice that. Thanks.

Re: Results of the vote

Anti Thesis — Tue, 05 May 2009 16:22:28 -0000

Best thing to do is mark support lines on your chart and wait for them to break. Calling tops and bottoms is a loser's game. Every week there is new evidence that this is the "top" yet bears getting reamed daily.

Over zealous bulls and bears get mauled. If anyone is stuck short, I can only hope they have hedges or have been looking for pull backs to start cutting position sizes down.

Re: Graphical Take 2: Solutide Model

Anti Thesis — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 00:29:40 -0000

Very wise, indeed.

Re: Putting Oscar on Pause

Anti Thesis — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:44:28 -0000

I've used 50% fib zones, and have matched his entries many times in the past. This is known as the "ambush" setup. It's simply a trend chasing tool, but in a trendless market, you will get chopped so like anything else that is not price action, it works when it wants to work.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:10:33 -0000

EOD today was one of the most choppy, volatile days I've seen in awhile Lawrence. Tick readings +/- 1000 every other second and the tape didnt offer many clues. The volatility alone is a sign that a nice move is immenient, and although I am leaning down, don't forget we are still in an uptrend and they're still squeezing.

This is where we are at: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_w...

As you can see we are in the middle of a range. For sellers to take control of the supply we would need to break 820.

Re: Point vs. Counterpoint

Anti Thesis — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 18:49:27 -0000

That is a good point. Simple mathematics will tell you traders with an inverse risk reward ratio are statiscally guaranteed to fail. One thing I notice about Oscar is that he is primarily a trend trader, he doesnt catch inflections well imo. The problem is that by the time he agrees with the trend, it is getting ready to inflect. But ocassionally his entries are awesome with a margin of error of less than 1-2 points.

But you know the saying. Your entries don't make you profitable, it's your exits.

Re: Point vs. Counterpoint

Anti Thesis — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 11:34:13 -0000

No one is saying king is a bad trader. We're all bad traders, it just depends on what day it is. I actually enjoy king's postings, its a different perspective. But I find a lot of his anti TA, "fade the crowd" mentality is mystical, and slightly hypocritical if not completely misleading.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:56:49 -0000

And to be more responsible to newer traders: please do your own homework. this is merely my interpretation of the tape. I will not expect a selloff until I see a sell off on the tape. I am merely pointing out the waning of momentum to the upside at this point.

You can gather this information on any chart. The ranges are getting smaller and smaller at the upper ends of the channel. View the chart, plan your own trades accordingly.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:41:02 -0000

No indicator, lawrence. Price action. The intensity of buying vs. selling. The increasing share count and speed of orders , the velocity of tug of war - spotting the painting of the tape (traps). Seeing a trend in the velocity of price changes, and noting any changes in the trend.

If this were to be displayed on charts, visually it would look like lower lows, lower highs, support/resistance failures. Eventually action on the micro level will grow into the longer term level. "technical analysis on multiple time frames".

Nothing special, just how you interpret the dynamics of supply and demand at a given inflection zone. No special skills or system or philosophy.

Charts or tape can give you these cues. Let me disclaim that I do not try to catch tops or bottoms in my trading because I feel it is a losing battle. I simply trade the trend and trail a stop for as long as possible.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 19:38:48 -0000

Lawrence asked what do you look for in prices to deterime a turnaround and you offered a non answer. My guess is that by the time we start selling signaled very clearly by red candles on the daily, you will then come on and say "i see prices signaling a turnaround".

I can tell you definitively that we are close within 1 or 2 days of a turnaround, and my signals are gathered by watching micro actions on the tape. Very simply, on the micro level sellers are beginning to creep in (micro level being seconds to minute by minute action). The micro level morphs into short term (hours), and short term into intermediate term.

This type of price action did not exist -2-3 weeks ago.

Either way, I hope you make it out of FAZ.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:07:58 -0000

Also, I like your contrarian approach, however, we can't all be right 100% of the time. In trading, if you do not use stops, 1 loser can blow an entire weeks/months/years of right calls. This is the nature of the game. Many bears made a killing in the recent tank, but are now at b/e (at least).

No one expects you to be right all the time, just be honest.

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:02:58 -0000

That was a very cryptic answer to a very simple question. My assumption is that you throw out a call, wait for a few months and when it happens you claim victory. Truth of the matter is that no one, not you or others using what u refer to as "TA garbage" can determine tops and bottoms. Catching market inflections is not a derivative of skill, and trading is not about catching turnarounds. It's about money management.

Jesse livermore also stated " I've known many men who began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

Re: AAII Bull Ratio 04/15/2009

Anti Thesis — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 16:14:11 -0000

Lawrence, I know I'm new to your blog but I really enjoy it. Just wanted to say good trades with Oscar. You should be learning a lot from him, but be sure to adjust your risk tolerance to your account size.

When he is good, he is very precise with his entries. But when he is wrong, it hurts like a bitch. The best thing to do is learn the tips and techniques, and try to duplicate according to your own risk structure. My Rmultiple for any trade MUST be higher than 3 and I keep my trailing stops tight.

Re: Commercial Real Estate - Starting To Crack?

Anti Thesis — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:45:34 -0000

On a long enough time frame, any arbritrary number or call will be vindicated. The only other question to explore is "if"...

As in, IF your timinig is off, will your account be able to withstand the drawdown? Your answer to this question will determine whether or not your call was "right" because really, the "when" is completely arbritrary and based more on probablitity than skill. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling something.

Good luck.

Re: Commercial Real Estate - Starting To Crack?

Anti Thesis — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:54:45 -0000

Faz is bear flagging, king. Before you say etfs dont abide by technicals, spx holding 830s today was very bullish. It demonstrates that the uptrend line since march is important, and still in play.

875 next. XLF to 11 to 11.50, and faz to cater to who knows where.

Re: The end will be astonishing !

Anti Thesis — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 15:42:58 -0000

Everyone knows a top is near, the question is "when".

A market call is as arbritrary as flipping a coin without an element of time. I can throw out any number and on a long enough time frame will be vindicated. This does not mean I was correct.

The element of "when" market will turn is NOT a nature of skill or technical prowess, but probability and risk aversion for your own account .

Set your parameters and take a shot. As soon as market goes against probability analysis, you should have stopped out for a re-entry, not hoping "when" is right around the corner because remember, "when" is an arbritrary factor in the equation.

It's all about probability and risk management. Happy holidays.

Re: The joke will fade faster than you can say goodbye !

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:14:32 -0000

You may be right. Either way, stay safe.

Re: The joke will fade faster than you can say goodbye !

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:04:36 -0000

Let me clarify, after the fins report and stress test is out of the way, there is nothing left to prop this market.

If we are able to rally without the help of news, that is a true sign of a paradigm shift. As of now, we have:

news driven rally
light volume
heavy resistance
overbought momo

I'm not saying we crash. At the very least we range until the end of the year.

Re: The joke will fade faster than you can say goodbye !

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 16:25:57 -0000

The market gained 2 points in 3 trading sessions. In the past 20 trading sessions it gained only 20 points - thats an average of 1 point a day. This alone should signify we are right into the thick of the resistance.

This would be a stupid place to capitaluate by any probability driven standard. If your account is close to being margin called, then you got in too early or failed to use stops effectively.

When weak bears start covering, that is the sign of the turn around. Next week will be telling.

Re: The joke will fade faster than you can say goodbye !

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 11:40:06 -0000

Agreed. People have it ass backwards it seems. As soon as they reach max pain, they flip sides only to see the market go the other direction...again.

Trade your plan, set your parameters. If your risk tolerance is too small for this market environment, sit it out.

Re: The joke will fade faster than you can say goodbye !

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 11:36:34 -0000

If you listen to anyone to make trades, you should not be trading. His stops are probably 100+ points and you want to try and trade his plan??

Re: Shorted other 50% ES @ 839.5

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 10:55:31 -0000

It takes a lot more than the "acceptance of bad news" to heal overall market confidence. Collective actions of market participants is not what is driving this rally.

If we get above 850 it will be on the fossil fuels of burning shorts, not on future optimism.

They squeezed the bulls in March, now they're squeezing the shorts. This is the nature of the game, nothing efficient or fundentally sound about how this market processes information and news.

Re: Shorted other 50% ES @ 839.5

Anti Thesis — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 09:54:41 -0000

I think his post is suggesting that the next blast will be shorts at 850 area covering.