Disqus - Friends of mika2k1

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/26/breaking_above_874_is_key.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:05:27 -0000

There has been a coordinated terrorist attack in India - Mumbai. Western hotels and Western tourist attractions targeted.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/26/some_long_ideas.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:12:51 -0000

Tim, thanks for all you do!
Hope you, Ms. Bear, the kids, and the dogs have a great feast!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/26/some_long_ideas.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:33:21 -0000

Here is something to laugh about. Chris Cox has managed the SEC as well as Michael Brown managed FEMA.

The Securities and Exchange Commission reported late yesterday that the International Organization of Securities Commissions is setting up a task force to investigate short selling.The funny thing is, despite all the attention paid to short selling, there's actually a lot less of it going on. In the last few months, short selling has been diminishing on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market. And over the first two weeks of November, that trend accelerated.

During the first two weeks of this month NASDAQ saw short interest fall 5.8 percent to 7.4 billion.
The NYSE experienced a 1.8 percent drop to 13.58 billion shares.
Good thing we're launching a global investigation of this diminishing trade

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/28/some_short_setups.htm

lizzy36 — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 12:46:23 -0000

I am just itching to buy some SKF here and hold until monday (because i think we see pullback on monday).

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/01/only_emini_traders_can_park_here.htm

lizzy36 — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:20:02 -0000

Boys and girls what is everyone doing into the close?

Do you all think that this is a stable retracement, a necessary step on our way to resuming the climb (tomorrow) to 1000 on S&P? Or do you all think this is the beginning of a revist of 750 on the S&P

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/09/top_level_view.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 14:53:01 -0000

I think it has something to do with the energy companies taking tankers out of circulation to store crude.

Because of the large contango in the crude market energy companies are selling crude forward, booking a profit, and storing the crude above ground, in tankers.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/09/alexander_delarge.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 16:31:12 -0000

WMT suspends stock repurchase program.

Aren't they the only company that is actually making money in this enviroment?

Is this a prudent decision in the operating enviroment or something else? WMT hoarding cash?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/10/flying_lessons.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:37:42 -0000

They were suppossed to do a second round of layoffs in Jan 2009. Apparently they are doing the second round today - perhaps ahead of earnings that are going to be horrific next week.

Second round is in addition to the 10% cut they previously announced.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/eur_base_breakout.htm

lizzy36 — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:49:43 -0000

Question for all: What happens when (if) the auto bailout bill doesn't pass?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/eur_base_breakout.htm

lizzy36 — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:12:59 -0000

I should have been more specfic .

What happens to the markets in the immediate aftermath of the bills defeat?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/how_do_you_say_his_name.htm

lizzy36 — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:34:16 -0000

She is pure class. Right up there with Pam Anderson.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/how_do_you_say_his_name.htm

lizzy36 — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:47:47 -0000

I have a feeling the "lady" is a bitch.

Nice trade on the FAZ.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/18/make_bouncey_bouncey.htm

lizzy36 — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 16:48:19 -0000

Agree.

I wish someone would just put it out of its misery here.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/19/harvest_moon.htm

lizzy36 — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 16:20:00 -0000

Thanks for the comment Mr.Pink.

Q - same Mr.Pink as Dealbreaker Mr.Pink?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 18:59:02 -0000

So a bad bank is the answer to all the financial companies issues? Seriously?

If the nationalization of RBS by the UK governement is threating the UK's AAA rating what the heck will could these assets do to the USA's AAA rating? The taxpayer will now own assets will probably lose another $1T in value. Jesus, C has a $20B market cap. and the taxpayer is already on the hook for 2x that amount in cash injections and 15x the market cap in gaurantee's, for that company alone.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:17:28 -0000

No details yet.

Like Tarp buy the concept sell the details?

Anyone of the math nerds been to markit.com and try and figure out how to value the underlying components in the indices of the ABX or CMBX? Many of the ABX indices are trading under $5 after being issued at par less than 2-3 years ago. Anyone think the taxpayer will be buying these assets @ 5 cents on the dollar?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:53:21 -0000

Great idea, the fed adopts cramdowns. Question is who pays for these cramdowns? Because at the end of the day it is probably going to be the taxpayer.

It's very clear that a lot of the political support for allowing bankruptcy judges to make changes to mortgages to reduce the principal owed or the payment terms is rooted in the idea that we should stick it to the predatory lenders and wealthy bankers who got us into this mess.

Of course, a key problem with this is that a lot of those lenders and the banks that securitized the mortgages don't have the money to afford to take the cramdown hit.

So we come back to the issue of WHO pays for these cramdowns? Anyone? bueller?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:56:33 -0000

CNBC announced government looking at creating bad bank for toxic assets as soon as next week. No details, just a concept. Buy the rumor/concept is what happened.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 20:08:43 -0000

Guys CNBC just announced that governement could be partially nationalizing the banks on this plan. At a bare minimum big common equity dilution coming for the banks (the government will get big slices of common equity for buying these assets).

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 22:33:05 -0000

Everytime i get caught up in the hour by hour trade i refer back to the TOTAL DEBT to GDP chart . To refresh for others debt to GDP has run @ about 155% for the last 100 years. Coming into 1929 it peaked @ 260% (the last high prior to Jan 2008). Coming into 2008 it peaked @ 355%.

There is no way around this deleveraging process. We wil reverate to the mean of 155%. (chanced are we will swing below the mean before we get back to it). In round figures WE NEED TO HALVE THE LEVEL OF PRIVATE DEBT - WHICH MEANS BETWEEN $10T AND $15T OF DEBT WILL HAVE TO DISAPPEAR.

We may rally for a couple of days until the details come out on exactly how this bad bank is going to operate. Then we may come face to face with the fact that the big banks are insolvent. That creating the bad bank includes partial (or greater) nationalization of the good banks. Those banks that are solvent and move forward, will do so as basic regulated utlities.

To be clear, I will play the long side for a quick bounce but i have a tough time getting exicted about this development.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 22:41:43 -0000

Plenty of money sitting around willing to buy this stuff at a price....

First of all cannot see many buyers of these assets. I believe Merril sold a pile of this crap at 5 cents on the dollar last summer (actual price was 15 cents but merril has to provide 80% of the financing for the buyer). That was pre LEH/credit crisis.

Second the banks DO NOT want to sell this stuff at market prices because that will leave a black hole on thier balance sheets (see AIG for an example of a black hole).

A 2009 RTC will cost us a minimum of $1T. And will not prevent GD2.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/out_of_es.htm

lizzy36 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 22:45:24 -0000

I agree shake.

Though it was a bit of a pissing match - completely unnecessary. I like Mish's blog but this piece left a bad taste in my mouth.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/28/enron_and_the_treasury_department.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 12:49:55 -0000

Couldn't agree more with you Tim.

Is it me or is there a real disconnect between the propsed outcome of each new $1T governement bailout and the actual outcome?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/28/enron_and_the_treasury_department.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 13:03:53 -0000

If the toxic assets were just simple real estate then perhaps but they are not just simple real estate.

Do you honestly see Detroit real estate recovering in our lifetime?

Second who pay's for the cramdowns that the government just authorized?

In order to revert to the mean for total debt to GDP we need to reduce private debt by a minimum of $6T to a maximum of $12T. In my mind unless we actual force the banks to take thier credit losses as the same time we create this bad bank this will just be another $$500 - $1T flushed down the toliet (same as TARP 1).

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/28/terrorist_fistjab.htm

lizzy36 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:09:02 -0000

Yes because we all know the right response to a crisis caused by to much credit is more credit??

Take insolvent banks, nationalize them, recapitilize with taxpayers money and then lend taxpayers thier own money?

What am i missing here?