Disqus - Latest Comments for maxniederhofer

Re: The Resistance Appears Again

maxniederhofer — Wed, 20 Nov 2024 17:46:54 -0000

I heard the idea floated that no visas should be issued for students/foreign workers in places that refuse to enforce federal immigration law. I think that's probably sensible.

Re: You — You Are the Campaign Adviser

maxniederhofer — Tue, 22 Aug 2023 08:41:44 -0000

Burgum seems cool and also unlikely

Re: Emotional Blackmail and Coffee Shops

maxniederhofer — Tue, 16 May 2023 09:52:23 -0000

Martha Stewart would invest in more fake-sexy surgery in order to make the SI swimsuit issue ca. 2050. Her brain may be in a vat, but her bosom is perky!

I always tip, but then I avoid the store.

Re: Election Season v Election Day

maxniederhofer — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 12:14:48 -0000

the Dems work harder and are better organized

Feels like Covid changed the rules. When a country has trouble counting votes in a timely manner, something is off. Between mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and the permissibility of ballot harvesting type methods, it's hard to escape the feeling that the system has got away from half the country.

Re: Black Gold, Putler, And The Dark Prince

maxniederhofer — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 12:16:00 -0000

I want to build big desalination plants in Texas. Drought is real but soil is good. We could make this place bloom like Israel.

Re: Black Gold, Putler, And The Dark Prince

maxniederhofer — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 10:36:10 -0000

German shale gas reserves could be up to 20 years of that nation's consumption. And yet the country placed itself at the mercy of Russia and now bends the knee in Qatar.

Throughout the world, this is a crisis that can and should be blamed on our own leadership.

Re: Embedded Inflation

maxniederhofer — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 12:16:59 -0000

rent it at market rates

That's the hard part when inflation spirals

Re: Embedded Inflation

maxniederhofer — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 10:21:50 -0000

Minor nitpick, but harelip.

Also: I had a friend with one. Properly understood it is not a curse but a blessing. The ugliness of the world reveals itself more readily to the ugly. In its offer of sharing in the passion, redemptive suffering is His call to a saintly life.

Inflation drastically changes all investment calculations. It directly increases the bar for IRR. It crushes prices that you can pay for real assets (cap rate goes up). Worst of all, before it subsides it causes so much uncertainty that markets will seize up. Illiquidity is about to be everywhere. The realization of this will cause it (self-fulfilling). Buckle up!

Re: Quiet Quitting

maxniederhofer — Tue, 13 Sep 2022 09:55:13 -0000

Have you been to https://www.reddit.com/r/ov... Folks working two or more remote jobs.

Re: The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

maxniederhofer — Fri, 09 Sep 2022 12:06:20 -0000

The Chinese will test us on Taiwan shortly. They are watching what happens in Ukraine whilst grappling with a contracting economy themselves. They will test us.

I'm afraid so.

Re: The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

maxniederhofer — Thu, 08 Sep 2022 20:49:50 -0000

You know this perspective is really helpful to me. I have had to take breaks from MSM in the past few weeks because the level of crazy really affects me. The explanation I've heard is that only outrage gets turnout and turnout wins elections.

The US is much more corrupt than we had assumed before coming here. It's still a wonderful place and more free than anywhere else we've lived.

Re: The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

maxniederhofer — Thu, 08 Sep 2022 19:48:09 -0000

A lot to reply to here.

1. If you let your energy policy be dictated by a Swedish teenager, at some point you're going to be sitting in the dark. Trump was right about the foolishness of the position Germany has put itself in. But Germany also should never have exited nuclear, should access its massive frackable gas reserves, etc. etc.

2. A major benefit of America First was to disentangle this country from its ruinous foreign adventures and focus on what's needed at home. When I see people like you cheer at neocon leves, I think MAGA achieved nothing substantial.

3. Ukraine is deeply corrupt. I was not aware that the Miami villa is now construed to be Russian propaganda, nor that Zelensky's wealth is now estimated to be only $30M. That's barely UHNW levels! Nothing to see here. I'm sure that's all above board. The guy fired his AG and head of domestic intel in one fell swoop. I hear the White House is unhappy.

4. "Orc": every Russian is made in the likeness and image of God. Countries are temporal, but souls are immortal. Tolkien understood this. Almost no Americans do.

5. If you think the endgame here is Nato-Russian conflict, you can go to hell and I'm going to Texas. To learn Mandarin while homesteading.

6. The current conflict is absolutely ruinous for Europe. We are talking about a free fall in consumer discretionary spend, mass insolvencies of SMEs, unemployment, social unrest, cold + hunger. And I ask again: for what. So that more pensioners can die in the Donbas? "Germany's freedom is defended in the Hindukush"... it never was.

7. The sanctions aren't working. They didn't work last time either, just led to a more resilient Russian economy. Remember when you forecast Russian economic collapse? The ruble is at a five year high. Might be because China and India are buying Russian commodities and reselling them to the world. I personally prefer a global economic system run on dollars. Especially if we're printing them like IOUs to bail out English lit grads who don't study the classics.

8. The war is not going well for either side, but you should be deeply skeptical of anything that smells of Ukraine gaining the upper hand. There is barely any aid making it to the frontlines.

9. German realists are deeply ambivalent about the war. This is why heavy weapons are so slow to ship.

10. Germany has become bad at managing large projects. Rearming is a large project. I doubt it'll go well. The country took more than a decade to build an airport for its capital. Try to sell them some F-16s or maybe you can finally share the F-22. By the way, Germany opposes armed drones. Not sure what to say about that. Maybe Turkey can help.

11. US foreign policy was supposed to pivot to Asia. This would still be the smart move.

I'd love to delve more deeply into some of this, but I have work.

Re: The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

maxniederhofer — Thu, 08 Sep 2022 07:25:03 -0000

Minor nitpick, while long Merkel's tenure isn't really unusual for a German leader. She was preceded by Kohl (1982-1998, also 16 years) and Adenauer (1949-1963, 14 years). Incumbency is a big plus for German voters who don't like change. Yes, term limits would be a common good.

On the geopolitical side, a Germany-Russia alliance is the natural state of power politics in post-industrial Europe. Russia has natural resources and Germany has industry. It is in the German national interest to take advantage of this proximity. The blunder is that Germany didn't fully commit to its alignment and left itself a playball of US interests in the sorry Ukraine affair.

Germany should never have become unidirectionally "dependent" on Russian energy. It should have made Russia dependent on its money and exports. In the Ukraine crisis, it should have pushed for a break-up of the country in the wake-up of the Crimea invasion. Germany has experience with divided countries - there's a playbook (see also Korea) that is used once America grows tired of her involvements (see also Iraq, Afghanistan). What Germany doesn't do well is power politics.

Instead the country was played once again by a democratic administration: Ms Nuland and others who for some historical reasons keep wanting to poke the bear who by the way is no longer a bear. But Americans think all Russians are bloodthirsty sub-humans. Americans have a long history of these kinds of stereotypes.

The Ukraine war was unprovoked only in the sense that cancer is unprovoked in smokers. At some point the immune system is weakened so much the mutations are no longer controlled. This seems to me to be an apt metaphor for current American leadership and the international order.

Russia is just a symptom of what is coming: stupid games between great powers that don't leave the people better off. America had a shot at continuing to be the beacon of hope. A country by the people, for the people, that actually represents the interest of its people. Instead it exports Hunter Bidens and military aid to corrup regimes. Have you seen Zelenskys house in Miami? That's the result of US foreign policy.

I think I'm with Jordan Peterson on this one: clean up your own room before you try and fix the world. This is good advice to America.

For Germany, I think it's time to let Ukraine go. Useless bloodshed with a criminal decision to pull in civilians including students and pensioners as cannon fodder. I hope we get to see Zelensky on trial.

Of course, the US power interest is to tie Russia into a drawn-out quagmire in Ukraine. So the key question is how long Europe will play Ms Nuland's game (yes, still her, isn't it crazy?).

For what it's worth, let's get some more nuclear in Texas.

Re: Russian Bond Default Impending

maxniederhofer — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 18:07:14 -0000

I don’t disagree with the morality of your position. I question the wisdom of the instrument.

Re: Russian Bond Default Impending

maxniederhofer — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 11:33:17 -0000

Message to the central banks of the world: your USD holdings are social credits, act accordingly. I'd be diversifying.

Re: Overpopulation & adoption

maxniederhofer — Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:59:05 -0000

Right before we had our second, I was worried that I wouldn't be able to love her as much as my first daughter. But it turns out that's a foolish way to think. All the analogies I've tried fail in the end, but the best I've found is that this second love is like loving in another color. It is the same intensity but also unique and just as beautiful and all-encompassing.

My eldest asked me this a few weeks ago and that's the answer I gave her. It failed to satisfy because kids have favorite colors. So back to square one on that.

The privation theory of evil is right. Much evil is done in the name of an apparent good. But the ends never justify the means.

Re: test

maxniederhofer — Sat, 01 Jan 2022 15:19:37 -0000

This is a test

Re: The Generations — Or, Talking About My Generation

maxniederhofer — Thu, 07 Oct 2021 10:26:50 -0000

I think Gen X should probably extend to at least 1978 (yours truly), 1979 or perhaps 1980. I have never before been branded a MILLENNIAL in one of these infernal ontologies. We are Gen X. Latch key, AIDS, Challenger, Nirvana, and the dream of the 90s.

But we also don't care, not really, about any of this stuff. You know. Whatever.

Re: Israel Going To War With Iran?

maxniederhofer — Fri, 06 Aug 2021 09:27:36 -0000

I hope you're right.

- Biden, "Tehran's favorite senator", will be morally compromised by the hard left
- Asymmetric warfare (drones, rockets, terrorism) + "enemy within" issue in Israel mean the country cannot afford a real offensive
- The new regime wants to be seen as strong, but it will be softer

My chips are on Iran edging out more and more of what it wants over time.

Re: The Arizona Audit — Some Thoughts

maxniederhofer — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 17:18:17 -0000

I'd love to whenever you have the time! Will send you an email.

Re: The Arizona Audit — Some Thoughts

maxniederhofer — Mon, 19 Jul 2021 22:39:20 -0000

Thank you as usual for the thoughtful and extensive reply. I look forward to the Durham report as well, but noted Nunes’ downplaying it already.

I’d still be interested in how you get the information at this depth. Is it from watching testimony?

Re: The Arizona Audit — Some Thoughts

maxniederhofer — Mon, 19 Jul 2021 16:08:42 -0000

It has been exceptionally difficult to find sound reporting of this. What sources do you use? Because for the life of me, I can't spend the rest of my life becoming an expert in epidemiology, election integrity, Kremlinology, etc. pp.

I am not yet ready to become a cynic. I think we can get out of this mess. I'd like to be here for the long run. But this country has some stuff to sort out.

Re: Joe Biden Is Coming For Your Guns

maxniederhofer — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 16:05:29 -0000

My wife is Romanian which makes my kids Latinx... we've got the new system figured out

Re: Joe Biden Is Coming For Your Guns

maxniederhofer — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 14:13:51 -0000

Thank you for that optimistic take! I do have a lingering question whether the man is actually in control, but hey... I'm just an immigrant.

Re: Joe Biden Is Coming For Your Guns

maxniederhofer — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 09:10:43 -0000

Recent immigrant here but I thought it said “...shall not be infringed”