Disqus - Latest Comments for mandelbrot1

Re: "Air" (AIRM) gets let out of TR: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 03/11/09

mandelbrot1 — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 02:05:25 -0000

Thanks for the info about Air Methods and the pep talk. I still feel bruised, but bettter...

Re: Postmodern Investing: StockTwits Experiment Week #8

mandelbrot1 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 02:39:19 -0000

Yes, Cramer realizes that he can make a lot more money, and be a lot less accountable, by just making recommendations. He is especially aware of this since he used to run a hedge fund where he had to actually take responsibility for his recommendations/trades ("eating his own cooking"). When he's wrong about some pick, people tend to forget, but when he's right, CNBC and Cramer never let you forget. Of course this is what makes something like StockTwits exciting, since you have people laying bare their trading soul for all to see. It will be interesting to see if any of the tweeters on StockTwits are able to monetize what they are expressing now for free by "amplifiying" their message and, if so, how they are able to accomplish this.

Re: Trades with Too Much Complexity

mandelbrot1 — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:55:41 -0000

If over 5 months your winners outnumber your losers 3 to 1 that is exceptional! Did you go back and see what your profits would have been with various stop levels or different criteria for closing your positions?

Re: On Adding Futures to StockTwits

mandelbrot1 — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:13:03 -0000

euro, yen, ES, GC, ZN, ZC, QM, QG

Thanks

Re: Bears run and longs fade: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 02/10/09

mandelbrot1 — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:30:49 -0000

I have done some analysis of "macro" negatives such as going long FAZ based on certain indicators (http://tinyurl.com/by8a5h) but nothing like the reverse of the individual stock picking approach I'm doing now. That's a good idea though. The difficulty would be that there are so many reasons for a stock to have a negative surprise these days!

Re: "Story Stocks" have a great ending: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 02/05/09

mandelbrot1 — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 03:56:27 -0000

Good point about how these stocks might have fared during a big downturn. The fact that the market was up 100+ certainly helped! I initially screened them from Google News and then used Twitter search stats and stock price comparisons and correlations to cull them down to the eight. The control group idea is a good one. It would certainly add credence to the Twitter/real-time analysis approach if there was a big difference in performance.

Re: "Gold" rising from the Twitter noise

mandelbrot1 — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 02:33:58 -0000

In the case of the three hour graph, the rate per hour of tweets containing "Gold" was fairly constant, other than the bursts of gold commodity related news rising from the noise. This was checked with Twitter search. This seemed to agree with the month long graph of mostly constant Gold "noise". Most of these Twitter studies done so far focus on fairly short term or fairly long term (month) trends where the circadian pattern will not affect any apparent correlation. Rates in the short term studies are checked if there is some issue as to the rate impacting the study. As to the circadian pattern itself, there are a large number of Twitter users outside the US, which does seem to reduce the effect. It would be interesting to know from Twitter how the rate of all tweets changes from one time of day to the next. Clearly, when there is an event, like CES and MacWorld, that can affect the overall rate.

Re: Anatomy of a plane crash

mandelbrot1 — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 00:23:10 -0000

Thanks. For the short-term, I'll continue with research and posting to the blog. No prop trading yet, although I will continue to the trade the mock TR portfolio.

Re: Anatomy of a plane crash

mandelbrot1 — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 13:15:40 -0000

Great point about the rapidity of the downturn compared to the recovery. If Twitter is any indication, people were becoming aware that the crash was not terrorist related after about 5 minutes (the start of the green downturn), but the market took another 20 minutes to begin to recover.

Re: A sad indicator

mandelbrot1 — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 22:55:01 -0000

Of course anything can happen, but I agree with you about Apple winding down, even given the fact that today wasn't as bad as most people thought. Can't really see Apple rallying for a while.

OK, I'll be on the lookout for "recall" in connection with Apple. Thanks!

Re: Fostering Transparency on StockTwits

mandelbrot1 — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:59:18 -0000

StockTwits is a refreshing alternative to any financial forum in the mainstream media and a great resource. CNBC and the like are mostly drivel. One of the cool things about ST is when people talk about their actual mindset when trading, especially when they have a bad day. That's great information and very cathartic!