Disqus - Latest Comments for malusDiaz

Re: The US Dollar (1987-2011)

roscoe_casita — Mon, 02 May 2011 12:22:27 -0000

Absolutely, Disaster preparedness & survival is not capital preservation!

The dollar will be replaced, thats what the insurance is for, and its just a vessel to transport it to the other side of the chasm.

I'll get back into the Fiat pool when its been purged, and the responsibility and trust of issuing fiat paper is retored... for awhile.

-And yes, its just a diversification strategy, not the end all, I just happen to be overweight in that category now, as thats what the market is saying. Its also moving from that 5-15% of the portfolio to the 85->95% of the portfolio because of 'revalueation'. Heck, we even get to watch it happening day by day, instead of all at once (imagine the catastrophe that would be!)

Re: The US Dollar (1987-2011)

roscoe_casita — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 01:29:37 -0000

The day before a catastrophe the insurance policy, the policy itself isn't worth anything, the day after... worth its weight in gold =D

The good part about gold is you only pay the insurance once, it never expires, there is no counter party default upon you, there isn't any lawyers to fight with, and you can always cash it in for some amount of paper cash.

Besides, it won't be a sudden event... it'll be slowly at first (last three years) , then seem like all of a sudden 1-2 years.

make no mistake about it, the dollar is dying. Check UUP to see whats really happening...

Everything will still retain its WEALTH value, its price will dramatically change.

And yes, this isn't about survival of the fittest, this is about survival of capital. imagine watching gold flip flop from 5-15% of your portfolio to 85->95% of your portfolio... huge nominal gains but relative wealth value has stayed the same.

Two ways to end up rich, make more then other people, or lose less then other people. This is about the later.

Re: The US Dollar (1987-2011)

roscoe_casita — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 16:53:13 -0000

In terms of "Insurance" if gold is a direct $ hedge insurance, how much do you need to purchase to protect your wealth?

Between 6.6 and 20x multiplier is a good "Expensive" -> "Cheep" evaluation.

If you wanted to hedge 300,000$ of wealth,

1500 * 6.6 = 9900 (revalued dollars, inflated dollars ect)

300,000 / 9900 = 30 Ounces. (45K $ or 15% of your portfolio, hefty but good insurance policy)

1500 * 20 = 30,000 ('cheep' insurance)

300,000 / 30,000 = 10 ounces. (15K or 5% of your portfolio... also happens to be the recommended amount from many sources)

Gold is insurance against excessive money printing & direct devaluation (either via Quantitative easing or directly).

Re: Has Facebook Jumped The Shark?

roscoe_casita — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 11:11:53 -0000

I gotcha, Facebook won't ever be the ad-generating revenew stream that google is because people can selectively ignore it easily? Or...people will remove friends who are just mass marketing to the people via facebook?

I'm not so sure it is... the DXY is taking a beating every time they do. I'm just a saver in an alternate currency.

Re: Has Facebook Jumped The Shark?

roscoe_casita — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 00:31:34 -0000

Facebook has served 1 social service purpose: Making it easy to coordinated and talk with friends (and I only talk with people I know).

TeeVee, I haven't watched TV in over 11 years now. Movies via netflix streamed to the computer on the LCD 42" monitor on the other hand...

How about that silver? Gold's getting ready for the next move, Its going to be a doozy!

Re: Should You Own A Home?

roscoe_casita — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 17:46:19 -0000

There is only 1 question to answer when you buy a house: Will you be happy in the house until the day you die?

Houses are depreciating assets (-Repair, remodel, insurance, taxes) not 'investments'.

This is the home we bought after looking at over 300 homes, and walking though 100, took 6-8 months: http://goo.gl/rjsLj

Re: Is Netflix The Next AOL?

roscoe_casita — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 04:41:50 -0000

Why compete when you can lease?

Their instant on demand cloud system is damn impressive (i've used it), being able to bring 100 or 1000 or 100,000 compute nodes on at a time, in different locations, then serve up the movies, and wind down as needed. Bill netflix, and they don't need to pay for infrastructure.

Another alternative is using google for server hosting and bandwidth usage.

Also isn't amazon mostly product sales? I thought they where #1 internet sales (Newegg is #1 computer sales)

-And the biggest point, this is buisness model, not stock valuations, they could be a highly overvalued stock (darlings of wallstreet become bastards when the wind changes)

Re: Is Netflix The Next AOL?

roscoe_casita — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 04:25:33 -0000

Netflix has done what few other companies have done in our time: Risen & forced an old business out. (Blockbuster)

They saw the failings of blockbusters model, and adapted to the market (mail format), they've already adapted again to streaming content.

Facebook is desperately trying to turn some kind of profit, CPU time drains energy and costs $. Who is paying for it? Advertisers? IPO?

Netflix's only competition is Hulu at this point, and both are struggling for bandwidth. Streaming 1 gimicky highly watched movie on facebook is not providing any DVD on demand, at any time.

My background is in programming & software design. The servers & bandwidth needed for streaming anything close to what Netflix does is astounding. The reason you don't see new releases on Streaming, is because it would overload them at this point (otherwise they would be doing it).

With the squid pimping Facebook hard, it wouldn't surprise me if they planned this gimick with a bunch of puts on NFLX.

All this being said, the stock valuations can be completely blow out of proportions above and below. This is not addressing that.

Re: Seven Lessons Learned From The Financial Crisis

roscoe_casita — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 13:43:22 -0000

There is something about holding it in your hand, its like sex or riding a bike for the first time. Holding a 1oz coin, and knowing how much it purchases and there is no counter party risk... hard to explain.

In accounts that I cannot pull monies from, I've gone after mining stocks (beware miners who have hedged, they lose in a big bull market). MDW and HL have treated me well, TRE's founder is talking about warehouse receipts of gold as a divided, ( you get actual gold as dividend, delivered)... time will tell.

With savings / capital I've been buying silver hand over fist for about a year and a half now. I might start slowing the silver (weighted about 150:1 silver:gold) and start weighting more to gold.

As I don't trust banks / govs (they are the ones diluting the currency to begin with), then you get creative with it. Mid-night gardening, personal safe, false wall, under drawers, storage facility, ect ect.

I'm not seeking to make money, I'm just a saver who wants their savings to retain their value.

-Two ways to be rich:
Make more then other people.
Lose less then other people. - this is in that category

Re: Seven Lessons Learned From The Financial Crisis

roscoe_casita — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 02:29:42 -0000

The real question is, how much inflation, and how fast.

3% per year inflation for 10 years (real, not reported), and bonds / money markets / stocks should out perform,

10%, and its time to get creative, looking at reducing expenses, real estate w/ fixed rate is outperform.

30%+ compounding ect... essentials such as food, fuel, raw resources. Gold / silver should outperform, as now.

Bi-flation element as well: assets that are unnecessary (wants) will fall in price, while necessary (needs) rise.

-Look for rock bottom prices in wants (I bought a beater truck for 600$, runs well, got another 5-10 years if I treat her right)

-Just bought another round of silver and gold.

Re: GLD Finally Breaks Out

roscoe_casita — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:06:55 -0000

Rofl! Although a good one will tell you actual metal it finds, but I'll try that =)

I was reading somewhere that Gold is actually from neutron stars going supernova, so along with being rare , its fairly rare in the universe?

We're all just star dust anyways!

Re: GLD Finally Breaks Out

roscoe_casita — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:01:31 -0000

Silver for every day transactions. Gold is preserve your wealth from one currency to (the next?)

70:1 Silver to Gold ratio says it all, I'm about 3 : 1 $ wise Silver : Gold.

silver and gold where not the top of the priority list.

Food For a year: Check.
Medical Supplies: Partial Check.
Sustainable Food Growth: 20 Fruit Trees + Garden Check.
Water: Partial Check.
-What else? Some Silver & Gold.

Re: GLD Finally Breaks Out

roscoe_casita — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:00:09 -0000

I disliked living in a world without buried treasure, so I put some there myself =)

How deep to metal detectors reach? I should find that out so its not easy to find!

Re: GLD Finally Breaks Out

roscoe_casita — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 14:54:47 -0000

Find some good air-tight sealed containers. Double bag it. Bury it in the ground.

(unless you wanted it for quick transport, then in a household safe.)

Re: GLD Finally Breaks Out

roscoe_casita — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 14:52:25 -0000

It does burn well... and you can use it for composting (Paper that is not FRN's that ink is bad for worms)

Re: The Shoe is On the Other Paw

roscoe_casita — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 19:22:19 -0000

10% of stocks above their 50 day: http://goo.gl/nKsF
40% of stocks above their 200 day: http://goo.gl/Yxpm

Both have performed the death kisses of 59 cross 283 down.

-Thanks for the video!

Re: Tighten Your Seatbelts

roscoe_casita — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 11:17:55 -0000

"In a Bull market, your either long of neutral." (Over 200 day slow ma)
"In a bear market, your either Short or Neutral." (under 200 day slow ma) -> this is currently true.

Re: Night Shift

roscoe_casita — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 10:46:58 -0000

I'm not sure how to check your eggs, but home grown/Farm-grown have significantly less cholesterol =)

Re: Gold Miners Short Thriving

roscoe_casita — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 10:25:24 -0000

thank you!

Re: Are These Just Gap Closers?

roscoe_casita — Thu, 27 May 2010 15:09:18 -0000

they wanted to save the well so they could still pump from it.

After 30 days executives decided it would cost more in environmental damage payouts and lawsuits then they could recover from the well.

Re: Clarity

roscoe_casita — Tue, 25 May 2010 17:22:17 -0000

Ya, my timing & execution sucked balls today =/

Should have close out some short puts at the open, still learning to be quick & nimble.

Re: Clarity

roscoe_casita — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:45:02 -0000

Wow, we can't even have a proper down day, Hang Seng at least knows how to do it properly.

Keep it easy everyone, time to pump iron.

Re: Clarity

roscoe_casita — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:31:45 -0000

I count over 28 +1K Ticks today... over 30 minutes , most hits 1200+ 1400+!?

2 hours the 23 & 39 EMA was above 0, and still, the indexes are not positive...

Re: Clarity

roscoe_casita — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:24:55 -0000

10,000!!!!!!

K what now?

Re: Clarity

roscoe_casita — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:03:14 -0000

1065.79.... 1065.43... spx... that was this bottom in the flash crash.... and the high now...

If this is where we sell off... we never need to fill the gap above ...