Disqus - Latest Comments for lizzy36

Re: Three Steps to Save America from the Politicians

lizzy36 — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 19:03:39 -0000

Excellent post.
$1B will be spent delineating the 1% difference between Obama and Romney. Think there is a better use of proceeds.

In 2 years from today the whole fricking game will start again.

Re: Stop Trading

lizzy36 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:27:38 -0000

chinese gdp tonight

Re: Continued Commentary On The China Commodities Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:28:12 -0000

There are about 100 million chinese with disposable income vs. 280 million in the U.S.

Rural chinese are not the ones who are taking advantage of credit to consume. Where the hell would they put these items. They live in wooden huts in the country, without permanent electricity, little running water, and they use outhouses.

Think of China as the U.S in 1929. The U.S was the largest creditor nation in the world. It had exported its way to this position. It took the U.S 17 years, WWII and the demise of it's competition (Japan and Germany) to stimulate enough internal demand for all the goods it was producing.

Don't get me wrong. I think China will be able to create the internal demand for most of what she produces. I just think it will take 15-20 years.

Re: Housing Tunes: ACME Cheap Credit Vs. Wile E Housing Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:38:17 -0000

No it should be the opposite.

In her report she states that GS will benefit (to the tune of billions) from the "tsunami of expected debt issuance from federal, state and local governments ramping up debt issuance to fund woefully underfunded budget gaps." They are running the governments debt book - that is how they are going to make money. If the government was not running such a huge debt book ($2 trillion this year) GS would not be so profitable. This is not bullish for anyone but the employees of GS and owners of GS stock.

They also make money with their prop desk program trading.

Can anyone explain to me how scalping money on a prop desk helps the real economy (trickle down to those who get huge bonus's is the only way i see it helping real people)?

Re: Housing Tunes: ACME Cheap Credit Vs. Wile E Housing Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:08:32 -0000

To be clear her call is GS goes up as the rest of the economy deteriorates. The two do NOT go in the same direction.

Re: Housing Tunes: ACME Cheap Credit Vs. Wile E Housing Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:06:18 -0000

If you read meredith's comment today she basically said that GS will profit on a bad U.S economy which in her opinion will get worse. It was a bullish call on GS. Mildly bullish on other banks near term. Very bearish on just about everything long term (with the exception of GS). Basically GS is going to be the governments book runner for all the debt they are going to be issuing (think municipal, state and federal debt). She specfically states"this is not an equity revival story". Her call "depends on GS acting as an agent, principal and product specialist".

One of my pals works for one of the large banks (the one with the silver fox CEO) and he said "we are not the real economy, we don't produce anything". Our numbers may be good but they are divorced from the real economy.

At some point the markets may understand that GS is not the real economy. Meredith was very clear on this point.

Re: Housing Tunes: ACME Cheap Credit Vs. Wile E Housing Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:54:14 -0000

he is on an airplane. flying home from eastern europe.

Re: Housing Tunes: ACME Cheap Credit Vs. Wile E Housing Bubble

lizzy36 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 10:52:49 -0000

I assume TD is on a plane (coming back to us just in time for GS Q2).

So i thought i would share this funny (because it is so pathetic) story via dealbreaker about what the SEC is now going to investigate:

"As the second quarter creative accounting season gets set to kick off, the SEC has identified another tangent to focus on. In addition to the Steve Jobs health conspiracy, the SEC has decided that now is the time to take a hard line on climate change. Having closely scrutinized all the major contributing factors to the economic freefall last year, Mary Schapiro's troops are starting at the top of the list and looking at the critical failure of companies to disclose or even mention the impact of climate change on their business. One of the SEC commissioners, Elisse Walters, aptly summed up the senselessness of this initiative by pointing out:

"We have a lot of internal education to do," she said. "This obviously is not an agency populated with climate experts, and we're going to talk to everyone who is knowledgeable in the area, who's willing to talk to us. We'll educate ourselves, and then we'll decide -- the staff will decide -- what to put before the commission or not."
Bernie never would have been able to get away with his little scheme had the SEC been looking into his power bills. "

Re: Merrill Gruntled, Believes Markets Combobulated

lizzy36 — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:28:06 -0000

From an M.D at a major financial firm on London (sent on friday).

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/...

Re: Merrill Gruntled, Believes Markets Combobulated

lizzy36 — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 13:09:33 -0000

This dude gets paid (lots i am guessing) to put out this drivel. My 5 year old nephew could do a better job.

This actually angers me because it is just dumb analysis. If i was an institutional client of MER/BAC i would call the head of research and complain about the stupidity inherent in this drivel.

Exactly what i would NOT want to do, take the last 6 years (cause they were so normal) and extrapoliate to the next 6 years. What is clear to me is this dude wants to take his pay check from the last 6 years and extrapoliate it to the next 6 years.

Watching the elf on Fareed Zakaria - looks like he got some botox.

Re: Yet another huge number coming out of China - consumer car demand

lizzy36 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:38:32 -0000

See history.

U.S was largest creditor nation in the world in 1929. It took them 15 years and the destruction of their largest competitors (japan and germany) to emerge from the Great Depression.

History repeats itself over and over. It ain't different this time my friend.

Re: Bank Of America Amazed By Goldman's "Unmatched Risk-Taking/Risk-Management Skills"

lizzy36 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:13:02 -0000

Good damm i miss u TD.

I am so hard up (and a bit hungover) i am actually watching Erin interview Zucker (reminds me of papa smurf)/

Re: Yet another huge number coming out of China - consumer car demand

lizzy36 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:22:55 -0000

About a month ago, on the NakedCapitalism blog it was noted that China counts auto sales when the finshed car leaves the factory, not when it is sold. They went on to note that the numbers of cars sold versus the number of cars registered (plated) from a certain factory was about 40%-50%. In other words 1/2 of the cars declared sold had in fact not been registered.

China currently has about 5%- 7% of their population (about 100million) with disposable income. The U.S has about 86% of their population (about 280million) with disposable income.

The U.S consumer is 18% of world GDP. China cannot and will not (for about 20-25 years) be able to take the place of the U.S consumer.

China is lending. Guess where the money is going? To the stock market. I have read a number of stories in the past month about firms taking cheap money and investing it in the market rather than spending it on productive capabilities. Lending money for the sake of liquifying the stock market always ends in tears.

I am not saying that China will not be a power house but the idea that china will pull the U.S (or the western economies) out of this is a remote possibility at best. The probability is that we pull China back down. After all how many Chinese people are going to be buying "salad spinners" or any of the other crap that they produced and sold the the U.S consumer (via Wal Mart) in the past 5 years?

Re: Intraday Observations

lizzy36 — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:58:34 -0000

she drives me as crazy as bob pisani. each has a catch phrase that they repeat about 3000x a day.

Re: The Citadel Trail Emerges, Goldman Injunction Likely To Follow Shortly

lizzy36 — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 09:48:52 -0000

Dennis Kneale is special (in the helmet wearing sense) . But not even he is dumb enough to go up against rosie (or rather not even his producer is dumb enough to allow Kneale with his superficial knowledge of the economy and the markets go up against a heavy weight like rosie) .

Re: The Citadel Trail Emerges, Goldman Injunction Likely To Follow Shortly

lizzy36 — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 07:13:47 -0000

Rosie on squawk box this morning

http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584...

Re: Commodities and equities telling two different stories

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:27:34 -0000

Thank you. Wondered what the AH run up was.

Re: Commodities and equities telling two different stories

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:24:17 -0000

It seems very quiet to me this year. Was at the rodeo on Friday and Saturday. Friday was same 14 people i have gone with for the last 4 years (mix of i-bankers and institutional sales/traders) and all remarked on the lack of energy in the air. We ususally go out afterwards and we ended up back at one of the guys houses discussing state of industry until about 2am.

Re: Commodities and equities telling two different stories

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:23:07 -0000

Can anyone explain to me why the hell Michael Jacksons death has turned into a world wide tradegy?

In reality the dude everyone is mourning died 15 years ago. Since then he has just been a star of the Michael Jackson reality show. The more interesting question is why over the last 15 years didn't anyone do anything to save him? They just bleed him dry and left the carcase.

Could actually be an euphemism for the U.S.A?

Re: Commodities and equities telling two different stories

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:02:23 -0000

How long are you gone for?

Just checking because i may have to get long some valium (for my withdrawal) if we are talking weeks.

Re: Commodities and equities telling two different stories

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:59:39 -0000

I was thinking the same thing. The only thing i could find was on calculated risk . It did not read postive to me.

http://www.calculatedriskbl...

Re: Sergey Aleynikov Guilty Of Prior IP Violation?

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:42:28 -0000

They should just say more buy programs than sell programs.
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Re: Sergey Aleynikov Guilty Of Prior IP Violation?

lizzy36 — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:51:40 -0000

Sky rocket in flight afternoon delight.....

Lets see if the fuckers can close it above 900....

Re: Is A Case Of Quant Trading Industrial Sabotage About To Destroy Goldman Sachs?

lizzy36 — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 19:23:11 -0000

GS doesn't have many clients other than its prop desk. Every client on the street knows that their biggest competitor is GS prop desk. The biggest threat to "client info" is internal sharing.

Re: H. Rodgin Cohen's (Failed?) Quest To Backstop Every Bank... Ever (And Usurp Geithner's Throne)

lizzy36 — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 10:59:13 -0000

This morning, on This Week, Biden admitted that "we misread how bad the economy was" .