Disqus - Latest Comments for kc135

Re: SPY : Hanging there ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 23:25:33 -0000

For months the higher volume has always been to the downside with the exception of one day last week. Today's volume was not impressive. If the kids want to go higher they better get more buyers interested than I have seen. Although Max Pain has been less than impressive the last few months it is at SPY 110 as of this morning for this OPEX and 106 for next month. That is a trend in the right direction for next month.

Either the markets start selling off of the kids may park the SPY at this level for another day or two. Notice how Friday's of OPEX week have had a history of being down this year? I am looking for that and more down Monday and Tuesday of next week before a bounce back up to a minor lower high.

I have had the below chart for months and it is now that it should come into play. I believe the target date for a bottom is early and should be more to the middle of October to the first week of November but the general idea is still valid. Just compare the little gold box contained in the bigger blue box and look at the similarity. The red arrow on the right had side is where we are now and the red arrow on the left side shows what happened back in June 2008.

http://www.screencast.com/u...

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 09:10:05 -0000

You have to be joking!!!

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 15:11:45 -0000

I am certain you are watching the bear wedge on the daily charts. As long as the support line on the wedge is not taken out to the downside it looks like the SPY 117 area by Labor day weekend and that should set up quite the sell off into October.

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 16:31:18 -0000

What a close.

Have two paths for Monday. SPY 112.44 is the key pivot. If that level becomes support then most likely to a higher high. How high? Don't know. However, if 112.44 becomes obvious resistance then down fast and hard in a wave 3 of A or 1 type move.

Re: SPY : The CAD/USD relationship ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 23:13:22 -0000

Very interesting chart. Thanks for sharing.

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 14:18:10 -0000

Doesn't seem likely. Whether this is a top near 113 and down we go or the markets flat line for the month neither case would justify 117 IMO.

The key I keep trying to push is you must trade what you see, ... not what you believe. Right now the market is going up and it will keep doing that until it goes down. Sounds dumb but it is really that simple. The SPY is trading above rising 20 MA's on 10 and 60 minute charts. If you are a trader, you don't short that!!!

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 13:30:44 -0000

Technically it should be a major short entry and this market should be finished. That said a little confirmation for going down would be appreciated.

I realize there are some very compelling cycle charts that indicate the markets will be flat until the 3rd week of September. Could happen. However, we could "also" be at a pivot top of major significance this week or next which would take the markets down into this fall.

Bottom line, no body knows what will happen. All we can do is wait until "something" does happen and then act on it.

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 13:30:07 -0000

Check my chart for the answer.

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 12:39:50 -0000

This is what I think is going on. Added to shorts today to cover Friday or early Monday.

http://www.screencast.com/u...

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 21:09:32 -0000

I am playing for 102-104 by Monday and then maybe up to 117. 111 does look like a conservative upside target but who knows. The market is crazy. They are fading bad news with rallies and good news with sell offs. Next week the kids will probably do the opposite. Must be nice not to be a sheep!!!

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:47:21 -0000

The markets should have broke to the downside but didn't. Looked up the "E" portion of a flag formation.

I am sitting on swing shorts but closed my trading shorts early this morning. Still an argument to get to the 117's very early August.

The bottom line is who knows? Pattern after pattern is being broken and proper reaction the news is a joke. When that happens the markets will usually trade counter trend (up in this case), and then collapse at some time in the future.

Until then go with the "force".

Re: SPY : Patterns ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 11:45:07 -0000

Wait until next week. This is still OPEX week and nothing really works this week.

Re: SPY : Kriss Kross ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:33:12 -0000

OPEX weeks are impossible to forecast. However, Fridays have had a tendency to be down.

The bottom line is the SPY is "potentially" bullish to the 116 area but there is a ton of resistance to get that high. Watch price on a 60 minute chart compared to the 20 MA. Until the 20 MA starts to roll over you have to assume more up. Not fancy but it works.

Re: SPY : Kriss Kross ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 00:01:00 -0000

Things changed. Looking to get long near 1023 and exit near 1033. Only a day trade. Looks like lower on Thursday-Friday setting up one and final bounce up into OPEX week to at least 1080 and potentially to 1150. That's the plan, now let's find out what is reality.

Re: SPY : Interesting observation ... - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 16:42:28 -0000

Serge

We are looking at the same thing!!

Re: SPY : What are the odds ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 22:56:35 -0000

To be honest everything seems to be happening 1 month early. I am on the sidelines with options since the VIX is way too high meaning buying Calls is a waste of money even if I get the direction right.

I am very bearish into September/October to the 850-950 area and find it hard to believe we are on our way at this time to those levels in the next month or so.

When in doubt stay out and that is exactly what I have been doing all week. I am looking for a rally to lower highs and now more likely to the 108 area but I think it may take until next week to start it.

My retirement account is loaded with short ETF's so I can afford to be wrong during any month but when playing options that luxury does not exist and that is why I am waiting to see if 7/15 still looks like a high or the possibility it may now be a low. Too much Ying and Yang for my taste.

Sorry for the indecision but that is where I am at for the moment.

Re: SPY : What are the odds ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 09:51:18 -0000

Since I have a pivot high on 7/15 I have to go with red.

Re: SPY : How about that ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 13:55:09 -0000

We still don't know for sure this pig is going up. I went long today and closed out looking to get long again if, ....,

If, ..., the bottom is in then the rally today is a wave 1 of something and a wave 2 retracement of something has to happen. It is all about the wave 2 retracement. If it provides support at the 76.4% retracement of today's low to high then the markets should rally in at least some kind of ABC move where leg A is now in progress. Then again, if, ..., the 76.4% retracement level gets taken out to the downside then more likely a lower low is going to come.

I will trade here and there but I don't get serious until I see a confirmed 3 wave whether up or down. It is simply the highest percentage trade the markets will offer. As usual does not work all of the time but works most of the time and that is best you can hope for.

Re: SPY : How about that ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 16:27:17 -0000

Here is the chart. If 106.67 holds as support then up at least the 115 area in July. If not then down to the low 102's. Nothing to do but wait for the SPY to tip it's hand.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Kc135a/folders/...

Re: SPY : How about that ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 22:14:51 -0000

My work has us between a rock and a hard spot as of today. If the markets fail to take out about 1150 then down very hard in a sell off like 2007 but I don't think that is going to happen. What I am expecting is a double top near 1220 late July early August and then down to about 900 by October, a rally into February 2011, and then the big one down into the Fall of 2012.

Again, still can't tell which way it is going to go at this time. I closed my shorts today and am flat waiting to see what happens this Friday.

Sorry but that is the way I see it at this time.

Re: SPY : How about that ? - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 01:22:22 -0000

Serge

Nice catch.

Agree with your targets of 115-116 (I will be out of all ongs by 7/23 switching to full short) and then about 90 this October. That should set up one more kick butt election rally for the cockroaches ending mid February 2011 near 1250-1275 before the next shoe drops to the 500's into Fall 2012.

After the elections there will be a lot of tax selling from Thanksgiving to Xmas because of the increase in long capital gains tax for 2011 from 15% to 20%. Thus, big up from mid October, pull back because of tax selling from Thanksgiving to Xmas, and then the final blow off top by mid February. The goons will be back in office and the stimulus will wear off leading to the next leg down.

Never over estimate the average American voter. They have the memory of a gnat and will only remember what happened 5 minutes before they vote. The cockroaches know that and will work very hard to plant "hope" into the electorate before the election.

Re: SPY/DXY : The US Dollar Index and the S&P 500. - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:29:00 -0000

Tis possible.

The 60 minute ES is doing battle with a 76.4% near 1053 and a point 1 to point 4 Wolfe support line but it is still early for us day timers.

Re: SPY : The last hope for the Bulls ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 13:54:19 -0000

The VIX 60 minute fractal likes Serge's chart.

About Thursday of next week looks pretty ugly after a weak market bounce up on Monday.

http://www.screencast.com/u...

Re: FXE : A line to watch ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 01:11:22 -0000

There are actually three potential outcomes to the chart but as drawn is the expected one. The other two are bullish. Either 1110 becomes support and up we go or a fast back test of about 1080 and then up we go.

How did I draw like that? Hit Google and learn about Wolfe Waves which are really nothing more than an expected move from an ending diagonal (or wedge).

Re: FXE : A line to watch ! - ETF CORNER

kc135 — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 09:16:47 -0000

The chart is implying up to 111, down to 104, and then I would expect a strong rally into month end.

Yes,... that is a change from what I was looking for before. All I can do is go with what I see at the time and what I was looking at changed.

The next test is a challenge of the resistance line in the 111's and then failure.