Disqus - Latest Comments for jmeth

Re: How To Go Broke In The Stock Market Illustrated With A Simple Drawing

guru — Sat, 24 Sep 2016 11:11:44 -0000

The chart depicts a unique situation: a horizontal channel. However, the market (and individual stocks) don't usually move laterally for long (except in secular bear markets); they usually trend up or down for extended periods. In horizontal markets you might be able to "buy the valleys and sell the hills" but in trending markets you never know really know when you hit the bottom of the valley or the top of the hill until after you begin seeing the reversal on the other side.

I'd much rather buy on confirmations of the trend - after a new high or low is made; that is when a new hilltop is higher than the previous hilltop or sell when a new valley bottom is lower than a previous valley bottom.

Re: Is The Bull Market Topping? What The Moving Averages Are Saying

guru — Thu, 23 Jul 2015 09:36:37 -0000

Excellent analysis and I endorse everything. These are the indicators I have used for my market timing since 2007 and they have been extremely reliable. Specifically, you point out that the 50-dma under the 100-dma alone is insufficient; it must be confirmed by a 50- under 200-dma, negatively sloping moving averages or the the Index crossing under the 300-dma. These conditions indicate a true bear market, sufficiently certain to justify an aggressive market short (or 100% cash) position.

Re: What's behind the Swiss franc's surge: Pro

guru — Thu, 15 Jan 2015 09:25:20 -0000

Gartman, hope you own gold and other commodities that break your toes when you drop them in Swiss Francs ...... and not $US

Re: Boston Scientific Faces Lawsuit

guru — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 10:38:23 -0000

While it offers a 10+% dividend yield, CMO has crossed above 17 since 1997! What could make it advance higher now?

Re: The Concepts of Internal Trendlines

guru — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 12:08:40 -0000

Trendlines essentially are attempts to locate the areas, or zones, where control shifts between demand and supply. Those shifts are most visible in horizontal trendlines (i.e., one particular price). Even then, the shifts aren't precise but approximations. The shifts are less obvious and precise when they occur at ever higher or lower prices (i.e., ascending or descending trendlines). The important point to remember is that this pivots aren't precise but occur over a number of transactions at perhaps different prices. Consequently, I concur. It's important to search out "internal trendlines" as well as "conventional" trendlines.

Re: U.S. stock indexes at critical short-term juncture

guru — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 08:40:41 -0000

If you were to use a logarithmic scale on the first S&P chart, you would see that the Index stays exactly within the channel and there wouldn't be any blow off discussion; this could be a correction back to the lower channel boundary at around 1605 the same as Dec 2012, Feb and April.

Re: Gold’s Support Seen at $1,400 Channel Base: Technical Analysis

guru — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 20:14:31 -0000

That's what I thought until today when GLD crashed below 140 to a low of 130.51 before recovering a tad. Was it over-reacting? Probably ... hopefully because I went in and bought some GLD remaining a staunch believer that the channel is a long-term correction in essentially a very long-term bull-market. I can't go anywhere but up with inflation on the horizon.

Re: On the Absence of Formal Technical Analysis Education

guru — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 11:57:45 -0000

Check out my recently published book "Run with the Herd". I think it will put technical analysis into a new market timing, trend trading framework.

Re: On the Absence of Formal Technical Analysis Education

guru — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 11:50:13 -0000

Part of the problem faced by Technical Analysis is its image as a "predictive" tool. In my book "Run with the Herd", I emphasize that technical tools, especially charts, work best when used to indicate appropriate buy/sell points as prices move out of consolidations or reversals. Their use is inappropriate and inadequate in determining the expected length and/or duration of the subsequent trends (we leave that to the practitioners of Fibonacci numbers).

Re: Bull Market Returns Almost Entirely Dependent on Duration

guru — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 23:17:31 -0000

The conclusions in this report seem to be circular but interesting. It concludes that bull markets remain bull markets until a bear market comes along (decline of 20% or more) and they are no longer bull markets. The most important thing for success in the stock market is to know when a bear market has arrived and then moving some or all into cash: stay invested until a bear market comes along and
then run for the hills.

Re: AAPL Gets a Cold, the Market Gets …..?

guru — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 11:12:51 -0000

If that is going to be a head-and-shoulders formation then a right shoulder is needed. See my subsequent post
Head-and-Shoulders Patterns: AAPL and GLD Case Studies

Re: Has the bear market begun?

guru — Tue, 30 Oct 2012 09:40:48 -0000

I concur. A 20-period moving average of a monthly bar chart = approximately a 400-day moving average. I prefer a combination of 50-, 100-, 200- and 300-dma's and arrive at the same conclusion.

Re: Dow 55,000? It's Closer Than You Think

guru — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 15:01:29 -0000

I'm not sure I would go all the way to 55,000 but the last chapter of my book, Run with the Herd, was entitled "Where to from here?" and explains why I believe that the market (S& 500) will hit 3000 by 2010, or 30,000 in the Dow-30.

Re: What Do Friday&39s Losses Mean?

guru — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 08:05:09 -0000

I wrote to my members that it is 3 and 4 in your list

Re: Resuscitating The Near Dormant Dow Theory

guru — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 23:05:11 -0000

I don't know who you're referring to and you have no idea of how many cycles I've actually experienced. Trust me, it's many more than you suspect.

Re: The Market Could Soon Bottom (And Nobody Knows It)

guru — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 20:24:24 -0000

Not only was the wrong article posted (it was from Oct, 2011) but the conclusion turned out to be ass-backwards. The market is actually up 19.45% from Oct. 3, 2011 rather than having declined to 1050 area as predicted by the author. So much for his investment advice!

Re: Kass: 15 Surprises for 2012 - TheStreet

guru — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 14:20:17 -0000

Fascinating. A title about 2012 and text exclusively about 2011. Some would call that "bait and switch" ... at least that's what it felt like to me.

Re: http://dragonflycap.com/2011/04/04/macro-play-of-the-week-gold-vs-crude-oil/

guru — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 09:42:52 -0000

This is similar to what I recently wrote (http://stockchartist.blogsp... concerning the relationship between GLD and DBC, the etf on a basket of commodities. I stated "With all the discussion about food shortages and increased demand for oil and other demand for commodities, the price of commodities hasn't been reflected in their prices when expressed in terms of the gold."

Re: http://quinttatro.com/2011/02/17/trend-trading/

guru — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:00:00 -0000

Where have you been since 1999 Quint? Over the long-term, the market has been trading laterally since the Tech Bubble bust; in the short-term, the market traded laterally for 14 months until this bull run began with the announcement of QE2 in August. Haven't you heard that we're in a "secular bear market" that will last the typical 14-18 years? If and when the S&P 500 crosses it's all-time high at 1576 will a true new trend begin.

Re: Golden Swans: 6 Themes that May Spur the Next Bull Market Investing With Options

guru — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 09:27:37 -0000

Excellent answer to a question I asked myself back in August in a piece entitled ""Becoming A 'Go-Ahead' Nation ... Again"

Re: Bears Beware! Chart.ly Blog

guru — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 12:42:03 -0000

Can't agree with you more. My take on it is spelled out in
http://stockchartist.blogsp...

Re: Locking in Gains Joe Fahmy

guru — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 13:41:28 -0000

How about: JBLU, RL, CYBX, CNQR, NTES, PETM, IDCC ..... and I could go on with many more. This enough?

Re: Locking in Gains Joe Fahmy

guru — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 11:47:25 -0000

Can't believe you say "lack of quality bases". I don't have enough money to take advantage of all these great base patterns and breakouts. My indicators point to the fact that bullish momentum is in control. Now is the time to add great momentum stocks in your portfolio for a huge bull market next year.

Re: Should Foreclosure-Gate Spur More Modifications? - Daniel Indiviglio - Business - The Atlantic

guru — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 14:21:12 -0000

I've been making the same argument to my liberal friends but not as cogent and succinctly as you. Thanks for writing this and taking the side of common sense rather than liberal soft-heart and soft-headedness

Re: Springtime for Setup City The Reformed Broker

guru — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:10:12 -0000

I concur and, over the past week or so, have assembled and published four lists, each using a different criteria, comprised of over 400 stocks that look as if they're ready to move soon after the market convincingly breaks 1150. They are worth taking a look for additions to your watchlist (www.stockchartist.blogspot.com).