Disqus - Latest Comments for jcarroll1948

Re: Saturday Market Thoughts and San Bernadino

jcarroll1948 — Sun, 06 Dec 2015 16:56:43 -0000

Muckdog. I follow you and agree with you on increasing the NCAA football playoff to 8 teams, though the current 4 team format is certainly better than the previous 2 team format. I also agree with you that San Bernadino may be the new normal. You lost me, however, with your "ugh" comment on Trump. Such a comment should include a "why" and a "who is better." The "who is better" should include why that person(s) is better, based on his/her positives more so than Trump's alleged negatives.

Re: The Red Army Storms Wall Street

jcarroll1948 — Tue, 04 Mar 2014 11:42:23 -0000

Good comment stream today. My vote on the line of scrimmage for point after touchdown attempts is the 33 yard line, making the kick 50 yards. Obama budget. Obama said it is time to end the era of austerity. My question, when did it begin?

Re: $AAPL - Apple Report Earnings: Ouch!

jcarroll1948 — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 11:52:06 -0000

What do you think the drop in Apple (loss in future tax from capital gains sells) added to Mickelson (and he is only the most recent of many high income earners) moving to a low-tax state does to Gov Brown's revenue projections?

Re: Election Randomosity

jcarroll1948 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 13:09:16 -0000

muckdog. I think you are spot-on with every political comment you have made over the last few days. Seems the dismal economy actually, ironically, helped Obama. While common sense would predict that the president who presided for the past 4 years should have been defeated handily, the weak economy and resultant increase in government dependency helped Obama, by creating a critical mass of people on the receiving end of government support. Amazing! This election will be studied and disected for years to come, but I think that's what happened. JFK said "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." This election turned that inspiring message on its head; sad really, America has become an entitlement, identity-politics driven country. The America of our youth is on history's ash heap, never to arise again. I recommended to my son and brother that they should continue to work hard and be tax paying productive members of society; I hope that is still good advice.

Re: Monday Randomosity

jcarroll1948 — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 11:05:08 -0000

Muck, I believe it will only take 51 votes in the senate to repeal Obamacare. It was passed via reconciliation and logic would dictate it can be repealed via reconciliation (51 vote threshold, no filibuster allowed because it is a tax/revenue issue). Of course, the republicans would also have to have the House and the White House in order to make the repeal law. One cannot say that Chief Justice Roberts did not do his share in making the forthcoming election a referendum on Obamacare and Obama in general.

Re: California Deficit Swells to $16 Billion

jcarroll1948 — Sun, 13 May 2012 10:43:14 -0000

Cute! The solution you outline is government problem solving on steroids and I can accept as something Jerry Brown may try. What happens, however, when the state writes a check and there are insufficient funds to cover? Does the rubber ever meet the road, like it would for a private party?

Re: The Government Adds Fees to Mortgages - New and Refinanced

jcarroll1948 — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 01:05:19 -0000

OK with the recommendation to cut spending, but that seems to be a really hard thing for our politicians to do, as every program has people/voters who view it as necessary and proper. Eventually, our politicians will have to face the reality that the federal gov't must shrink, but we are not there yet. Also, when politicians talk about cutting spending, they mean reducing the planned increase, not actual cuts. My recommendation is to freeze spending at the current total level until revenue comes up to match spending; I have heard estimates that that would take about 7 years, assuming normal economic growth.

Re: The Government Adds Fees to Mortgages - New and Refinanced

jcarroll1948 — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 00:06:10 -0000

Thanks for the reply, and I did not mean to come across in a negative or combative manner; I apologize for that. I am no expert on this, but as I recall the discussion from late December when the 2-month extension was being debated and passed, I think the fees do go away in 10 years. This is how long it will take for the additional fees to equal the cost to the gov't for the 2-month 2% tax holiday. Yes, it is a tax hike on people who finance or re-finance their purchase of a house; but the money must come from somewhere and this is what the politicians agreed to as an acceptable source of funding for the tax holiday. It will be interesting to see what our politicians come up with to pay for the additional 10 months the President and politicians of both parties say they want.

Re: The Government Adds Fees to Mortgages - New and Refinanced

jcarroll1948 — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 12:41:51 -0000

Unless I am mistaken, the new fees are to pay for the 2-month extension of the 2% payroll (social security) tax holiday we are currently enjoying. The money has got to come from somewhere; paraphrasing Walter Williams, the gov't can give to one American only after it takes whatever it is giving from another. I think the new mortgage frees are a more preferable source of funding than just adding the cost to the national debt; which will ultimately be paid by the next generation through a lifetime of higher than what they would have otherwise been taxes.

Re: Wednesday $AMZN Randomosity

jcarroll1948 — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 16:24:21 -0000

Two out of work NBA players knock on an elderly lady's door and ask if they can mow her lawn. Her response, "Sorry. I'd love to hire you to mow the lawn, but I cannot afford the $100,000 you have to charge."

Don't you just love it when millionaires and billionaires squabble?

Re: Black Box Sell Signal

jcarroll1948 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 06:37:32 -0000

Muckdog, from time to time you mention your Black Box. I am not a technical analyst by any stretch, but it looks to me like candlesticks. Could you explain, in terms understandable by a non-professional investor, what your Black Box is based on and how it works? Thanks.

Re: So That's How It's Going To Be?

jcarroll1948 — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 14:30:21 -0000

Not sure about 666, and I am an optimist. That said, it sure does feel like 2008 all over again; the difference being that instead of companies failing, it is countries and states and the US federal gov't is further in debt with no plans to get out. But, hope springs eternal.

Re: How About Some Good News? Manufacturing!

jcarroll1948 — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 10:35:41 -0000

Amazing that Bernanke thinks oil is not a serious threat to the economy, as increases in oil prices has been the principle lead-in to recessions since the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

Re: Reflecting back on My 2010

jcarroll1948 — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 11:03:07 -0000

Congratulations on a very good year. My total return for 2010 was about 19.5% (still have one investment that has not yet reported). As one in early retirement, I have been transitioning toward income. Any thoughts on transitioning one's portfolio from the accumulation phase to the draw-down phase? Thanks, I enjoy your blog, and I think your analysis is generally spot on.

Re: One Way the Rich Will Avoid Paying Taxes

jcarroll1948 — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 10:25:34 -0000

It is certainly hypocrisy on steroids for Buffett and Gates to urge higher taxes and concurrently avoid taxes by giving to charities. I can, however, see the benefit. More troubling, though, is giving to overseas organizations (ex: Oprah's gift to South Africa). Doesn't it make sense to tax overseas charities, as this was money earned in the US?

Re: Winners and Losers: Obama to Extend Bush Tax Cuts

jcarroll1948 — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 10:18:52 -0000

muckdog, you hit the nail on the head with every point you made. What this exercise in political kabuki-dance reveals is just how difficult the task of reining in the government will be for the new republican House and the continuing democrat Senate and administration. I think it was former Senator Simpson who, when discussing the difficulty of raising taxes to pay for programs no one wanted to cut, said the attitude is something like, "Don't tax you, don't tax me. Tax that fellow over there hiding behind the tree."

Re: Giving Back a Little

jcarroll1948 — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:09:51 -0000

To be a bit more positive (and less of a lecturer) than my previous (and first) comment; Muckdog, I enjoy reading your blog very much and thank you for taking the time and effort to produce it. I also enjoy the pictures. Thanks.

Re: Giving Back a Little

jcarroll1948 — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:04:15 -0000

I lost 35 pounds in 47 days, earlier this summer. I ended up in the hospital for a week with a chemical imbalance. Tell your co-workers that not all fast weight loss experiences are positive. My experience, and the recommendation of most doctors, is weight loss of 1-2 pounds per week is safe and more likely to be permanent (women closer to the 1 pound per week and men closer to the 2 pounds per week). For what it's worth, experience from the front.