Disqus - Latest Comments for jbond

Re: The Fermi Paradox

Julian Bond — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 06:41:24 -0000

Space is very, very big. Space is very, very hostile to meat sacks. Space is the other side of several deep gravity wells. So the only possible colonisation must be via

creating machinery that can travel to other planets, spend 500 years or so self-replicating using the raw materials on their new planet

The simplest possible self replicating machinery is DNA. It looks as though the first original viable ancestor using DNA occurred very early in Earth's life. So maybe life is extremely common in the universe but the most advanced technological thing it ever manages to do is fire out star seeds containing DNA. A tiny few of which manage to kick start life on a sufficiently fertile location and repeat the process. That process takes 500m->4b years not 500.

The Fermi limit is actually hard physics limits that mean FTL is impossible, Thermodynamics-Entropy in a closed system can't be escaped and so life never really escapes it's source planet or solar system. The best it can manage is to kickstart the same process somewhere else. So we never see anything, because there's nothing to see.

Re: The Sniper: The new KTM 990 Duke breaks cover at EICMA

Julian Bond — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 02:14:57 -0000

But is it better all round than the Triumph 765RS? At this point they look very, very similar in spec.

The things that bother me about KTM is what used to bother me about Ducati. The range and bikes won't stay still for more than a year or two. And there's a nagging worry about reliability and small numbers of dealers.

Paying extra for features that are enabled by 5 minutes of dealer-only laptop, just sucks.

ps. Tiny thing, but a USB-C outlet 10cm from a bar mount phone holder is about bloody time.

Re: Quartararo put himself in danger but there were more dangerous things going on at Catalunya

Julian Bond — Wed, 09 Jun 2021 10:33:40 -0000

It's a puzzle how Moto2 is so scarily chaotic while Moto3 tends to be a boring procession. The only solution is more power. So what we need is 1000-4, 750-3, 500-2 prototypes using common pistons.

But then we dismissed that already. So I guess 350 singles for Moto3 will have to do. 155mph slipstreaming instead of 150mph should make all the difference.

Re: Say Yes to this astonishing guitar solo from ‘Starship Trooper’ | Dangerous Minds

Julian Bond — Mon, 30 Sep 2019 12:13:40 -0000

Reminds me a little of Gong - The Isle Of Everywhere. Same endless soar.

Re: 2019 MotoGP British Grand Prix: How Rins beat Márquez

Julian Bond — Mon, 26 Aug 2019 06:48:44 -0000

Brilliant. If the 2nd to last lap had been the last and Rins had crossed the line first while on the green bit, would he have won?

Re: Interstellar Iron Found In Antarctic Snow

Julian Bond — Fri, 23 Aug 2019 18:22:52 -0000

I can't wait until "TARDIGRADE FOUND IN JOVIAN SNOW".

Re: Building a Honda CBR600F for the road trip of a lifetime

Julian Bond — Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:42:37 -0000

What is a Suzuki RFV250?

Re: The World Might Actually Run Out of People

Julian Bond — Mon, 11 Feb 2019 05:09:57 -0000

Because the authors have a book out?

Re: The World Might Actually Run Out of People

Julian Bond — Wed, 06 Feb 2019 04:26:10 -0000

Neither I nor the UN Demographic group deny that "Declining fertility in industrialized countries is a well established fact." So what's the point of your last sentence?

Re: The World Might Actually Run Out of People

Julian Bond — Tue, 05 Feb 2019 08:51:35 -0000

Beware % growth rates in a growing total population. A constant +80m/yr looks like a falling %growth. But it's still an increase, just not an exponential increase.

Re: The World Might Actually Run Out of People

Julian Bond — Tue, 05 Feb 2019 07:00:37 -0000

I wondered why this article appeared now. It turns out it's selling a book.

Darrell Bricker is CEO of the global polling firm Ipsos Public Affairs. John Ibbitson is writer-at-large at the Toronto Globe and Mail. Their book Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline

The thesis seems to be mainly based on Jorgen Randers book of 2012 based on views developed in 2008-9. Which raises the question of what Randers thinks now 7-10 years later.

The UN demographic group is due to issue their next revision of their forecasts in June 2019. In each bi-yearly revision this century they've had to revise their forecasts to be more pessimistic with the date to 10b revised earlier each time. You can study this stuff in http://www.worldometers.inf... as the figures are based directly on the UN Medium fertility model.

Suggesting we won't hit 8b till 2040 ad then decline is a joke. Since right now we're almost at 7.7b and we're still consistently adding 80m/yr. We're solidly in the middle linear part of the S curve with still no sign of a drop from 80m/yr, +1b every 13 years.

They also quote China fertility as 1.50. It only got that low immediately after the one child policy. It's been rising ever since. It seems there's a lot of cherry picking going on.

If, and it's a big if, business as usual continues long enough, the UN figures of 10b around 2056 and no peak this century look likely. But note the reference to Randers. He was one of the authors of Limits to Growth and his book was about forecasting out to 2052. It's looking very likely that pollution and resource constraints are going to limit population growth. In which case maybe the big slow down will happen by 2050 or maybe 2075. But right now, 8b in 2023 looks highly likely. With 9b in 2038 looking likely. And 10b around 2055 distinctly possible.

And meanwhile, we're consistently adding +80m/yr and +1b every 12-14 years.

Re: PSA: Google+ is currently down, for the dozen of you who still care

Julian Bond — Sat, 12 Jan 2019 04:47:43 -0000

Spare a thought for the Blogger users. There's quite a lot of G+ integration in Blogger from comments to widgets to share buttons to shared profiles. All that will fail with the API being shut off. But there's been no announcement to them about this at all, at all. I mean zero official communication.

Re: Up-Close with the Red Bull Honda Suzuka Race Bike

Julian Bond — Sun, 29 Jul 2018 13:20:01 -0000

I love that after all these years, Honda still uses the same starter button and kill switch assembly from the late 80s.

Re: Slavery & Human Trafficking Booming Thanks To Climate Change Induced Migrations

Julian Bond — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 14:01:20 -0000

Explain to me again how indoor farming is going to work for bulk staple carbohydrate and protein crops like wheat, soya, pulses, potatoes, rice that 7/8 of the world's population depend on.

Damn techno-cornucopians. You really don't get scale, do you.

Re: Slavery & Human Trafficking Booming Thanks To Climate Change Induced Migrations

Julian Bond — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 13:58:43 -0000

The Indian Sub-continent is especially important here. It's really hard to just walk out from.

Looking at the Indian Sub-Continent and S Asia as a whole, it appears to contain a perfect storm of chaos factors.
- 1.8b people growing at 20m/year. Maybe 2.5b by 2050.
- Nowhere to go since the land routes out all involve 15,000ft passes that are closed, easily defensible and that already have military presence. Or into Myanmar which is dense jungle. Or into Iran and that route's harsh and lawless. Or into Afghanistan which is an active war zone. The sea routes are difficult, long and the likely destinations uninviting. All of which makes any mass emigration very unlikely.
- Pollution problems (see all the main cities but especially Delhi, Karachi)
- Large areas at risk of flooding from rising sea water when they're not being flooded by the monsoon.
- One country (India) that controls water flow to two others (Pakistan, Bangla Desh)
- Dysfunctional governments
- Religion
- Nuclear weapons
- Severe and increasing danger of Black Flag weather every year. That's a combination of heat and humidity that kills humans without air conditioning.
- Mass exposure to Black Swan weather. Bangla Desh in particular is densely populated and prone to flooding. But so are the poorest states in India.
- Very rich anarcho-capitalists, in control of technological industry, powered by very large reserves of coal but with little oil.
- A proxy war zone on one porous border with Afghanistan that keeps spilling over into Pakistan with the help of US drones.

That's quite a pressure cooker.

Re: ‘DEATH VAN’: This surreal animated music video is totally bonkers | Dangerous Minds

Julian Bond — Fri, 02 Mar 2018 11:12:15 -0000

Wow! So good.

Re: 2018 Suzuki Burgman 400 First Ride Review

Julian Bond — Thu, 15 Feb 2018 11:31:53 -0000

I'm also a bit disappointed they made the seat taller. I've hacked at all the ones I've had with the electric carving knife. The bike rides better and is more comfortable ith a lower seat. Unfortunately the frame cross member and luggage area prevents you from getting too radical but even an inch lower makes a difference.

http://bikeweb.com/image/ti...
http://bikeweb.com/image/ti...

for details.

Re: 2018 Suzuki Burgman 400 First Ride Review

Julian Bond — Thu, 15 Feb 2018 11:27:57 -0000

I predict Givi will do well out of selling bigger windscreens. Just as they have for every other Burgman.

The big problem with all of them has been turbulence round your head and even more so round the pillion's head.

Re: 2018 Suzuki Burgman 400 First Ride Review

Julian Bond — Wed, 14 Feb 2018 09:47:34 -0000

It doesn't seem significantly different from the K7-L16 model. Is it actually better in any way at all?

My fav is still the K3-K6 if it wasn't for the ABS. The one thing they all need and apparently still do is a bigger tank. 130 miles when riding flat out isn't quite enough. Of course I'd also like a genuine 100mph instead of 90mph but we always want more, right?

Re: Will Lorenzo be 2018 MotoGP champion?

Julian Bond — Wed, 07 Feb 2018 12:53:51 -0000

"During 2017 Lorenzo got a lot of criticism from fans who compared his results to the successes of Dovizioso".

Or Rossi:-

2011 Valentino ROSSI, 7th, 139, 18 races, 3 DNF, 1 DNS, 1 podium
2017 Jorge LORENZO, 7th, 137, 18 races, 3 DNF, 3 podium

But as somebody pointed out, in 2011, Rossi didn't have a team mate who came within a whisker of winning the championship.

Re: Yes, Reindeer are Threatened by Climate Change

Julian Bond — Fri, 12 Jan 2018 03:33:07 -0000

And the denial-o-sphere goes wild.

https://twitter.com/mattwri...
Oh, the sweet irony! A bigger blunder by the BBC than what they banned Lawson for.

https://twitter.com/Cartoon...

https://www.thegwpf.org/bbc...
The BBC have accepted Lord Lawson’s complaint that they made a serious factual error in claiming that reindeers were in “steep decline” because of climate change.

Confirmation bias is a wonderful thing.

Re: Why Government-Sponsored Research Is Vitally Important: The 1st Battery Breakthrough Story Of 2018

Julian Bond — Fri, 05 Jan 2018 07:56:37 -0000

As far as I can tell, the rate of production of "Battery Breakthrough" stories is accelerating exponentially. But I haven't done the peer reviewed research to verify that.

Re: Is a Baby Africa Twin Coming from Honda?

Julian Bond — Wed, 13 Dec 2017 02:58:29 -0000

There's a huge appetite for 125/300 bikes in Asia and the far east. And there ought to be for 500s and 750s in the US and Europe. 650 Versys/V-strom sell don't they?

Re: Is a Baby Africa Twin Coming from Honda?

Julian Bond — Sat, 09 Dec 2017 06:48:20 -0000

Yes, please. Let's see a full range. 125, 300, 500, 750, 1000 Adventure bikes. For made and unmade roads. They don't need to be full off road or enduro, but should be able to cope with easy green lanes and cart tracks.

Re: Top 10 Neat Bikes At The British National Motorcycle Museum

Julian Bond — Fri, 08 Dec 2017 15:38:06 -0000

I thought it was TC. just wasn't sure. Some of my earliest memories of M/C was reading Choppers, Easy rider, Hotrod and stuff. There used to be a guy at Choppers who would go to Bonneville every year with unfaired, nitro and straight gas sportsters. Think he broke 200 one year on an unfaired HD.