Disqus - Latest Comments for investors411

Re: Krugmenistan vs. Estonia

Barr Jozwicki — Thu, 19 Jul 2012 15:12:46 -0000

Stimulus works! Obama take office passes Stimulus Bill. GDP goes from -8.9% to +3.9% GDP. Jobs growth goes from loosing -800,000 a month to +300,000 a month. One time cost $787 billion.

A whole mess more (millions) people now pay taxes instead of leaching off the system. Deficit goes down year after year. Then stimulus runs out and Tea Party takes over and blocks all job creation bills. They have to be dragged kicking and screaming for even a payroll tax cut. Stock market under Obama/Bernanke goes from an early low of 666 to 1370. Corporations make more than ever before. The rich get a whole lot richer because they own stocksEvery left wing jobs bill from helping small business to adding teachers/first responders has been blocked because they pay for it by taxing the rich more. Stimulus works and you don't need a country 300 times smaller than the USA to make a flimsy case. Look at what far larger and similar countries with far more reliable accounting systems like Ireland and Spain when they adopted austerity. Investors411

Re: Reaching a Tipping Point?

Barr Jozwicki — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 07:57:10 -0000

The Stock Outlook for the second half of 2012 was updated on 7/1 and can be found in the POSITIONS Section of the blog (Click on banner at top) Last night folks on the mail list got a list of the stocks I'm investing in. - Mostly dividend stocks and "Your Stock List" stocks. This list will publish next week in the blog and a list of the stock investments I make for a public institution sometime in the future.

I'm extremely happy with how well the McClellan Oscillator has worked on calling when to buy and sell. I've updated how to use the MO in the STRATEGY Section of the blog. Two of you have had outstanding success with the MO recently and I encourage you tell others about this.
The MO is best at calling highs and lows, but it has recently gone from +100 to -10 (yesterday) Once it falls below zero, (also its 50 & 300 Day Moving Average) it usually continues down. This call is not as accurate as using the MO to predict highs and lows.. But it is worth this read of the tea leaves - Chances are we will hit a - 90 (OMG oversold) before we get back up to +80 (OMG overbought). So it looks like Bears Rule.

Earnings season (JPM this AM) goes into full swing next week and this could trump the bearish technical sentiment or hasten the fall to -90 ( OMG oversold)on the MO.

I'm going to do my best to blog today or tomorrow.

Barr

Re: Another Mega Scandal

Barr Jozwicki — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 11:22:13 -0000

"The rotten heart of finance" One of the world's most respected financial journals is featuring this headline today. It seems that LIBOR rates have been manipulated by bankstas "for decades."

If you ever borrowed money, there's a good chance YOU have a had something tied directly or (certainly indirectly) to the LIBOR rate.

I'm shocked this is not a headline story here. It is in Europe.

Barr

http://www.economist.com/no...

Re: Miracles Happen

Barr Jozwicki — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 09:49:30 -0000

Chris - I like a long term put/call combination trade on JPM.

Reasoning - JPM is the biggest derivatives holder/casino gambler in the world = Risk taker.

Other factors add to this risk. Europe's is far from stabile (and there could be some major swings. US elections could see some major swings. I think all this could move banksta JPM dramatically in either direction. Less major but possible Iran war, Syria,Turkey war with Russia and USA on different sides.

Barr

Re: Bankstas At War

Barr Jozwicki — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 10:58:24 -0000

Here's a relatively realist editorial on the 1/2 life (weeks) of the new European bailout. http://www.businessinsider....
Barr

Re: Bankstas At War

Barr Jozwicki — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:52:57 -0000

JS, EW, Jim, George and everyone else.

The EU bailout that rocked worldwide stock market's higher is, hopefully, a significant tipping point. WOW! Every headline in this breakthrough features the German change in position - By the looks of the significant (4 to 1) vote in the German parliament it does seem this and future bailouts will DROP the AUSTERITY measures that were increasing the fall into a worldwide recession/depression.

Great one liner from George "Austerity is like a farmer saving money by not watering his crops" I would add this ending - "Austerity is like a farmer saving money by not watering his crops" in the middle of an intense drought

Barr

PS - Long Term Stock Outlook upgraded to Neutral and if we can hold onto Friday's gains we could

Re: The Mafia State

Barr Jozwicki — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 17:11:57 -0000

Jim - I added them to the list. Thanks for all your help/wisdom on the banking/banksters.

Gang - Some great comments over the last few days. My house is getting even more flooded with kids and grandkids. Will blog when possible.

Barr

Re: One Minute to Midnight

Barr Jozwicki — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 15:01:19 -0000

For those of you who are interested in more on how markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals) will react to Fed announcement tomorrow, here's a better analysis (how to trade the Fed meeting") than I could give - http://www.marketwatch.com/...

Re: One Minute to Midnight

Barr Jozwicki — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 14:45:12 -0000

Sure looks like we are going to close well above 2885/2900 on the NASDQ. As Paul & folks at HSGI mentioned this is a strong resistance area that's been broken. Small Cap stocks (Russell 2000) also braking out.
S&P 500 broke out its trading range last week, so its leading the charge. It took out its 50 DMA today.

The high Spanish bond prices (over 7%) will do serious damage to Spain long term. But it has become evident that international banks will benefit far more, than the people of Spain from the proposed ECB bailout. Banks having their losses (over leveraged derivative trading disasters on Spanish bonds losses) socialized = financial stocks and overall market does better.

Short term our old MO indicator (as well as lots of others) is showing an overbought market.

Lot of speculation/hope that the Fed will have some kind of stimulus announcement tomorrow.

Barr

Re: One Minute to Midnight

Barr Jozwicki — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 08:31:32 -0000

Welcome Sparkle and other new members to 411's mail list.

Basically for new readers the OVERVIEW section (at top of blog) presents the trends impacting world economics, politics, and markets.

I'm still on a kids and grand kids break, but will try to post a blog tomorrow.

On Stocks - Our 10 year Spanish bond rate has lost some credibility as a leading stock indicator. This is because the banks/banksters seem to be coming out on top in Europe. Too big to fail banks win = their stocks stabilize or go up.

As long banksters/plutocrats extract virtually all the financial gains and the middle class workers suffer or pay for all the losses we will continue in a downward spiral for all but a few.

Barr

Re: Cavalry to the Rescue?

Barr Jozwicki — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 05:55:33 -0000

Many 411 readers are doing quite well with utility and high dividend stocks. See past comments.

Too big to fail bank JPM's Jamie Diamond public lovefest with politicians/congress clearly shows bankstas still in charge of privatizing over leveraged gains/risk and YOU socializing their losses.

Never has it been so transparent that our political leaders in Washington are bought and paid for.

Paul has stayed on top of the rumors driving the markets and the fact that a rumor driven market is DANGEROUS Most rumors right now have a positive bias for stocks.

Greek election on Sunday looks like like win for Greece staying in EURO. This plus rumors = short term bullish

Barr

Re: Cavalry to the Rescue?

Barr Jozwicki — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 16:44:43 -0000

If your into details on why Spanish bonds exploded (6.51%) higher and stocks sank - see headline story at Business Insider. The devil is in the details - - http://www.businessinsider....
Barr

Re: Cavalry to the Rescue?

Barr Jozwicki — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 15:07:58 -0000

Chris - excellent point - "if stocks don't rally on outstanding news its bearish." Same for Paul on chasing good news rallies. especially as stock open.

I'm afraid the big drop in oil prices today (USO down 2.36%) which will be a low for the year is more bad news. Commodities, especially oil, often lead stocks lower.

Barr

Re: Privatize Gains/Socialize losses

Barr Jozwicki — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 21:12:33 -0000

Paul - My best to Hilton.

Markets should have a major upside day tomorrow due to ECB bailout of Spain.

Barr

Re: 1% get 93%

Barr Jozwicki — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 07:44:05 -0000

Paul - I Certainly agree the area around NASDQ 2900 is a line in the sand.

Barr

Re: PT Barnum

Barr Jozwicki — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 15:04:59 -0000

JS & everyone else

Great collective job at defining what making stocks move today. The Spanish auction was 3x over subscribed. I find this almost surreal considering the economic crisis in Spain.

China news is a big deal too. Double edged because it means the slowdown in Europe has hit China hard. The lower rates will help China, but earnings reports from China are not going to be as good as last quarter.

The broad based NASDQ has faded today when it went up against its resistance level (High from 2 weeks ago) . So some sort of at least short term correction seems likely because of the fade. Paul can tell you more about this

Still, longer term the Spanish 10 year is right now the best forecasting tool. At some time that will change, but for now it is quite accurate.

Barr

Re: PT Barnum

Barr Jozwicki — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 07:11:00 -0000

Rally caps?

Spanish bonds are down for the 5th straight day this AM. Traders or "bond vigilantes" are getting clobbered just like they did in the USA.

The EU has weaker tools to deal with their crisis than the USA. (See past month's 411.)

My best read of the tea leaves is the Fed is loaning the ECB some low priced "swaps" (money) to back up the ECB. The ECB gives troubled banks in Europe (Spain) money if they use sovereign bonds (think debt) as collateral.

To watch the 10 year Spanish bond rates fall dramatically for 5 days in a row on absolutely no real hunk of good news means some powerful entity is buying Euro bonds.

Bond rate at 6.21% at 7:07 AM EST. It was at 6.15% at 6:50. Very volatile. So we'll see how it goes.

At least with QE's and other Fed measures it was more transparent how markets were being influenced/manipulated.

Barr

Re: PT Barnum

Barr Jozwicki — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 09:31:34 -0000

Jim

Way too many variables and new news out there every minute to really understand which direction things are headed. All we can do is look at the yields on the Spanish 10 year as an imperfect, but somewhat reliable forecast tool.

The best thing our Fed can do is some kind of low cost swap arrangement with the ECB. The best that ECB can do is directly intervene in each troubled currency. Germany's Andrea Merkel has said Nein/No.

First and foremost this is a banking crisis with German banks at the center. They were downgraded today by a credit agency. But it infects all major banks, especially those that trade swaps on the opaque derivatives market.

Barr

Re: Jobs Report

Barr Jozwicki — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 11:04:25 -0000

EW - Obama is the underdog. But there is hope, despite Europe's meltdown impacting the world and the US jobs market.

A clear simple message that YOU/Customers/Middle Class Americans create jobs. Stimulus works. Nick Hanauer did a great piece on how. I'll expand on this in the future.

Barr

PS - MY family and grandkids are coming in mid June. More 411's now. A lot less then.

Re: Jobs Report

Barr Jozwicki — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 09:51:32 -0000

411's 3 month Long Term Outlook is Cautiously BEARISH.

Barr

Re: Assaults on Democracy

Barr Jozwicki — Thu, 31 May 2012 17:10:04 -0000

Jim, I like your stock analysis. However you have to consider the Fed's "Operation Twist," which, in part, is designed to push the 10 year T bill yield lower ends in June.

The ball is in the Fed's court and there's a lot of political and economic pressure on them to act. But if they fail to act soon my read of the tea leaves is the T bill yield goes up.

Paul - Ian's blog that shows a precise way to measure fear and greed. This is extremely relevant to trading.

Behavioral economics and psychology teaches that we are twice as likely to let fear/panic run away with our minds than greed/pleasure. Having a concrete way of measuring this makes for a disciplined/successful trading.

Critic & Jim - Thanks for sharing your long term positions with the group.

George - Voter repression is a most serious issue. Thanks for bringing it up.

:)D - I will get to specifics on fighting the Super PAC$ soon in a blog post.

Barr

Re: Helicopters & Dog Poop

Barr Jozwicki — Tue, 29 May 2012 10:42:02 -0000

Paul -As always good stuff from Ian and Ron.

All - major upcoming events for next month related to stock markets.

Irish Elections this week

1st Friday in June - US unemployment figures.

June 7th - Important meetings in EU

June 17th Greek elections

June 19th & 20th - Our Fed meets.

Barr

Re: Worshiping The Wealthy

Barr Jozwicki — Fri, 25 May 2012 09:23:19 -0000

Heads up to investors/traders - Spanish bond up this AM. Will try to post later today or over weekend.

Re: Two Destructive Words

Barr Jozwicki — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:35:27 -0000

Chris - Damn,. Do you have a bug on Paul or my phone? We were talking about this an hour ago.

The ECB has a "back door." It advances loans to private banks, accepting bonds of European governments as collateral. So called "bond vigilantes" can work the other side of this trade. The Fed legally can not get involved, but there are so many lines of credit between the ECB, banks and the Fed I strongly suspect they are indirectly involved. Example if you Look at a list of Fed member banks you will find a lot of huge European banks on the list.

Barr

Re: Two Destructive Words

Barr Jozwicki — Wed, 23 May 2012 07:46:43 -0000

No blog this AM. No change in Long Term Outlook - See Tuesday's post.

Paul talked of a "plunge" The 1.91% fall in oil prices (USO) yesterday would confirm markets will go down. Commodities are a leading indicator for stocks.

Spanish bonds are up, and European markets down this AM. - Not a good sign.

Plunge or slow meltdown seem likely, but if the ECB can keep/manipulate Spanish bond prices down we may see some stability especially when/if we get to OMG oversold conditions (-100 on the MO)

Barr

PS - Big move higher in JPM yesterday was based on oversold conditions and the dramatic fall in Spanish bond rates. It was a great day trade if you had a short term in the money call on JPM.