Disqus - Latest Comments for failed_realtor_aka_huggy

Re: Punishment on MBB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 14:27:29 -0000

not quite...your analogy of the store window fails on several key points...unless this is a consignment shop that you speak of, the salesperson is an employee of the store and not a 3rd party selling the goods...in addition you neglect to mention if the customers are all offering the same price or if one is willing to outbid the other.

the key difference with a short sale is that the bank is taking a loss on the outstanding loan amount...I'm assuming that the bank is expecting the selling agent to put their effort into listing the house and solicit the best possible offer thus minimizing the bank's loss.

what is often times occurring in the current marketplace are agents doing prearranged backdoor deals to sell properties significantly below market rate...to satisfy the bank's minimum requirements the agent will put a sham listing on the mls and not respond to any outside inquiries or offers...I'm not sure if this practice is illegal but it's most certainly unethical.

ultimately the burden lies upon the banks to better control the short sale process if they don't want to be screwed by selling agents.

Re: Tree Lots Around and Under $800k | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 19:55:51 -0000

do you think prospective buyers wouldn't do their own due diligence in regard to the driveway?..on how many occasions are potential negatives selectively omitted from listings to gin up interest...if a seller discloses all features up front this is a non issue from the start.

Re: Open Forum (12/16- ) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 13:41:41 -0000

excellent tool melissa...after spending a few minutes in 90266 some interesting observations

-% of hh income spent on mortgage increased
-median hh incomes dropped in all tracts WOS except for 2 with the best gain being +19% yet inflation has gone up +25% during the same period
-the one oddity is that they have the current median home value at $1M even...with the north end of town showing the strongest gains in the +8% to 28% range...depending on what methodology and time range was used to calculate median that could be right but seems to go against the consensus of this blog.

I think the big call out here is that median income growth hasn't outpaced inflation and hh's are spending a larger % of income on housing which could lend itself to price stability.

last point being if you believe the census and bls inflation rate of 25% median home value really hasn't appreciated in the last 10 years.

Re: Where Sales Are Slowing | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 13:22:23 -0000

you should take the lead and lever up and get your hands on some coastal investment properties...I hear they aren't making any land by the beach anymore and ca real estate never depreciates.

Re: Where Sales Are Slowing | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 16:37:41 -0000

plausible yes but not enough to cause the ratio to double...the other piece of the interest rate equation is that under normal lending standards, a borrower has to bring a larger down payment to cover the increased principal to maintain the LTV...if the borrower is maxed out they really don't have any additional buying power to drive the price up.

one other thing worth mentioning is that 30 & 15 year fixed rates actually rose during the peak bubble years from 03-07 so that pretty much negates that theory...could today's rates be propping up prices?..most definitely.

Re: Where Sales Are Slowing | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 12:29:53 -0000

halving is absolutely not halving...reducing the cost of borrowing money has a diminishing return and less stimulative as you approach 0%...if you are so certain about your halving please fill in your starting X% at what particular time and then at what point did it hit 0.5X%?

if the sample of new buyers is as wealthy and as small as you say then how on earth could they drive the entire WOS sub market?...you could reason the sand and hill but you saw the trees and EMB follow the same trend...did a rush of wealthy buyers swoop into those areas as well?..what about all of the other beach cities from malibu to pv that experienced the same median trend?..all the same hedgies and pe partners drove up the median across the board in the 310 area code?..so given the flurry of transactions during the bubble all of that influx of wealth drove a slight uptick in median income?

once again why would prices come down if the influx of wealth you speak of is stable?..did buyers overpay in an overheated market?..if so how did they have the means to overpay?..dig into the cash reserve?..spend a larger % of disposable?..finance a larger %?

world view?..try finance 101 and basic microecon principles...pretty simple stuff...you on the other hand get your view from a sample of 3 neighbors between gull and 45th east of highland.

Re: Where Sales Are Slowing | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Thu, 02 Dec 2010 13:43:50 -0000

first off "halving" of interest rates is quite relative...the closer you get to 0%, the effectiveness of cutting rates to drive increased buying power or generate demand diminishes rapidly...so while a cut from 12% to 6% increases the borrowing power and shifts more of the monthly payment toward principal allowing prices to rise, a cut from 6% to 3% will not have nearly the same effect on purchasing power...so depending on what one defines as interest rates "halving" makes all of the difference.

so going back to all of the theories as to what pushed median sales price to double against hh income here are the presumed factors:

gentrification
new construction
interest rate drops
credit expansion/highly leveraged financing

I'm going to agree that all of anon's factors for median increase are real but also argue that they have been constants over the last 20 years...those variables in the housing price equation have only grown in a linear fashion and may have only moderately outpaced inflation...so having a 15 year baseline of moderate growth over the long term to see exponential growth over a 5 year period is an anomaly to say the least.

so going back to anon's factors, why hasn't the influx of wealthy (which I agree is happening) new buyers brought up the annual hh income in line with the rise in medians?...in addition, if we also assume that that the new wealth still exists, why would pricing ever need to correct downward since there is hard money backing those prices correct?

if you were to rank all of the factors listed, highly leveraged financing easily dwarfs the rest of the price appreciation factors combined...it's not even close.

Re: Where Sales Are Slowing | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 15:09:04 -0000

that sure sounds like orange county logic if I've ever heard it..."if all my neighbors and everyone else in town spends a ton of money and flaunts it they all must be independently wealthy, cash rich and immune to economic downturns"

it's pretty simple math here...median selling price to hh income ratio rose from a pre bubble level of about 6 to nearly double at the bubble peak of 11...there is no way incomes of new buyers could drive an ratio to that point of exponential growth in roughly 5 years...the only explanation is leverage...if the bank now lets me use my $100k as a 5% down as opposed to the traditional 20% I've just quadrupled my buying power...income growth is linear and can drive up prices over time but not to the factors that we've seen.

as much as we love to think it's wealth that drove and will sustain the bubble the true driver was credit

Re: Late-Bubble Beauty Slammed Upon Resale | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 18:56:05 -0000

please justify as to why prices should settle above pre bubble conditions...a massive credit expansion drove a speculative bubble across every affluent coastal area in california ...it created unsustainable pricing and demand...now that the bubble popped why shouldn't market fundamentals drive volume and pricing back to its traditional trend as it has in past cycles?

Re: Late-Bubble Beauty Slammed Upon Resale | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:37:44 -0000

add in another 10% to the downside of your range and you'll be a bit closer to reality.

Re: Open Forum (8/30– ) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 14:11:37 -0000

seriously if economic armageddon is right around the corner why bother tying all your cash up in a leveraged and illiquid asset?..seems like spending freely on whimsical and self indulgent goods and services.

Re: Monticello Returns | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 13:40:29 -0000

I didn't realize thomas jefferson used staple on stone back in the 18th century

Re: Quick and Dirt-y in the Hills | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 20:18:14 -0000

great point about how mix can really skew the median in month over month comparisons...let's say those previous purchase prices were $6.2, 4.2, 5.1, 6.8, and 6.0 that could support a higher median but if you didn't have any sales at the lower end (trees) the median rises yet the high end is trending downward...the same can be inferred between the ask/sale spread but that's built more around perception of market value than actual gain/loss.

median can be a valuable tool if you look at a 12 month rolling trend then you have a robust sample that smooths out the variability of property tier and seasonality...it's not an absolute but it can give you an perspective of what direction the market is moving.

Re: Frequent Star in the Gallery of Cuts | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 13:16:14 -0000

how did you arrive at -25%?

what is you're assessment of the market now? bottomed? stable? on the rise?

Re: Open Forum (8/30– ) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 14:39:23 -0000

while in an academic sense all commodities should rise with inflation and drive prices up for consumer goods, I think one of your long positions will be exposed to some serious demand destruction.

if there isn't corresponding wage inflation (very likely due to the global oversupply of labor) to put extra dollars in consumers hands, they will continue to have less disposable income forcing a harsh and rapid flight to bare necessities so more demand elastic commodities will get hammered...we saw it with the oil bubble several years ago and it was amazing how quickly discretionary gasoline demand evaporated. (don't forget the airlines as well)

to summarize if you get your mix of commodities on your long plays, you could make out very well but there are some commodities that have some serious deflationary risk to them.

the other big risk is a global currency race to the bottom which could really wreak havoc on that dollar short.

the more I think of the pending qe2, the more I think it's the gov & fed posturing against china to set back door tariffs and get them to float the yuan but then again I don't think helicopter ben is that smart.

Re: Open Forum (8/30– ) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 14:54:03 -0000

too bad you can't have residential real estate inflation without wage inflation and from the looks of it, qe2 will do nothing but shift the holdings of large scale investors from treasuries to inflating exchange traded commodity bubbles.

given the economic headwinds and the disappearance of massive real estate financing leverage, cost of living inflated and stagnant wages buying power should diminish...in such a scenario the absolute best outcome will be for real estate prices to stay flat on a nominal basis...in real terms the value of the leveraged asset is less than the outstanding debt so while the debtor is paying the mortgage with cheaper dollars their asset's value is cheapened over time as well.

seems like a wash to me...hoarding cash doesn't make sense in an inflationary economy but neither does buying an overpriced house.

Re: July '10 Sales in MB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:24:10 -0000

one data point does not make a trend

Re: July '10 Sales in MB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:22:29 -0000

fair enough he was refuted on the kindergarten statement so that can be conceded but your feeble attempt to dismiss his other statements is rather immature as your personal disagreement serves as proof that he is flat out wrong in everything he says.

defense cuts: his projection based on an actual events that occurred in the 90's...it is plausible that it could happen again but is it likely but will it have the same effect?..that scenario could go either way so your insight is no better than his.

rolling stone:did you even read the articles?..I suppose not and even if you did they went way over your head because taibbi's sources cite way too many specific examples...why don't you critique something in one of his articles that's factually incorrect.

numerous pieces: once again name some specific examples of what was posted that was factually incorrect and refute those statements with contrary information.

it seems that you've definitely mastered the art of the qualitative debate...make broad generalizations...avoid addressing or dismiss specific statements/examples with broad generalizations and your absolute favorite technique of avoiding the subject entirely and going straight to attacking the messenger.

Re: July '10 Sales in MB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 13:15:51 -0000

more ad hominem nonsense from a_non...

Re: Open Forum (8/11- )

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 17:59:43 -0000

I agree 100% with that analogy...demand for pro volleyball is about as strong as demand for mb housing.

a_non you're absolutely right...you should enjoy living in your leveraged asset...if it's something that you truly enjoy living in then there's nothing wrong with overpaying for something if you want it and can afford it.

Re: Open Forum (8/11- )

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 12:36:48 -0000

homer here's a follow up to your link http://articles.latimes.com...

cool to see that it's gonna happen and they're going old school rules...for some reason I thought pro volleyball players might embrace the change of pace and the simple fact that the show is still going on...quite the contrary as it looks like they've adopted the no pay/no play attitude and sense of entitlement of the major sports.

newsflash...your pro sport is broke so you better find that "love of the game" you once have and a good paying bar tending job.

Re: Sales in Those 'Other' Areas

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 18:38:33 -0000

luv that could be definitely be inferred...I had this conversation at lunch is that the aspirational/move up class has been hit hard and real luxury purchases now are only being made by people with real cash in the bank as opposed to those with high incomes and good credit scores...but hey that's leverage for ya...you could also say these purchases represent a flight to quality as well.

Re: New Label for the 'Gateway'

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 18:34:31 -0000

here's an alternate name: white elephant on south chevron

Re: Open Forum (6/8– )

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 17:46:30 -0000

I have yet to find an industry other than residential real estate where a low offer is considered "insulting"...bottom line is that any purchase is a financial transaction...for a seller to refuse to hear an offer is plain stupid especially in a market like today's...in addition I'd be pissed if my selling agent was deliberately discouraging potential offers in order to preserve price points and comps.

like any financial negotiation the worst outcome is that the seller says no...no big deal..move on and keep shopping...the truth is that a seller may think they won't entertain an offer below $x their attitude can change considerably if the buyer has money in hand and can get a deal done asap.

one thing I would also emphasize is that you always leave some money in your back pocket in anticipation of a counter...usually settling somewhere in the middle will be acceptable for both parties.

Re: 11% in 2 Weeks

failed_realtor_aka_huggy — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 16:58:32 -0000

homer 2+2 is analysis paralysis for you...and I'll elaborate your point for you...people that visit this blog may live in mb or they may want to live in mb or they may be interested in living in a multitude of "special" or "unique" areas west of the 405 in the 310 area code like:

the 3 pv cities
redondo
hermosa
manhattan
pdr
venice (yes people even pay millions to live in venice)
sm
the palisades
brentwood
malibu

personally I don't get emotionally attached to housing and won't make an unsound financial decision or overpay for property based on how it makes me feel...if I find the right place for the right price I'll pull the trigger.