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The predicted increase for Canada in 2015 is entirely likely.The predicted increase for USA to almost 9.3 may be a bit of a stretch but the LTO boom never ceases to amaze.
But many credible analysts expect the LTO boom to peak before the end of this decade, perhaps as early as 2016. Since growth in LTO accounts for almost all of the growth in global oil production during the past 5 years, its peak will be felt world-wide.Oil prices will then become unhinged (much sooner if unrest in MENA, Nigeria, Russia, etc gets worse). I doubt that there will be much 'calm' re. oil prices in 2020.
These are the same "experts" who predicted "peak oil". I put no faith in economists that seem to know not much more then anyone else.
Are you still not convinced re. Peak Oil, RJ?
In any case these are not the same experts, at least not entirely. The EIA's most recent Reference Case has LTO peaking in 2017. The most pessimistic Bakken projections usually come from ND-DMR itself, whose graphs show peak by 2015.
By the way, the most credible PO analysts that I've encountered are veteran oil guys, military analysts and geoscientists. I can't think of an economist among them... can you?
PO is pure bunkum.
many credible analysts expect the LTO boom to peak before the end of this decade
No they don't.
po is happening.
We need to diversify, which makes it more complicated to forecast.
Well, in order to make gains, there are times when the load becomes heavier.
This is one such time.
The Alberta advantage was touted for years but never named. It was our cheap electrical power! The Conservatives in their never less than sharp wisdom invented a vehicle called"the power purchase options" or PPO's (they love acronyms. The rule had been laid down that generators could not own power lines.
Klein had previously collected all the power lines into the Government control saying it was so school like Blueberry Alberta could afford computer labs like Leduc had. Now in Government control without a whimper from the public it was easy to sell the lines. The loss to Albertans was confirmed by several economists at being 70 billion dollars!
Most power ended up in the hands of the cities profits there from would be referred to by us who dissented as being "Indirect Taxation" The lines have changed hands a few times; Fortis has said privily the scale of industry is not sufficient to make money on power lines in Alberta and they viewied their take over as an error. Now; they are looking to sell the whole works to Warren Buffet and pick up sever billions in proift from the sale; then; watch the power prices go up.
Within the first 6 months a cookie manufacturer left Edmonton back to Bramalee Ont price of power too high. A fiberglass Manfuacturer in Leduc said he would have to close his doors and as I under stand it has since done so.
Meanwhile the cities add 1 line cost to bills as they see fit and name them what they want whenever they want more cash. They are careful not to hit the rates on electricity too hard but our costs are sky rocketing. Edmonton was named by National Geo April 2010 as having the highest priced water in the civilized world!
Our chance for diversification is must less than it was before this crew came to power.
There was rumor's at the time the inital PPAs were "flipped" some as many as 3 times in the first 2 days. They felt this was necessary to raise the price to bring on wind in a profitable environment. They may be right but i don't agree with how they did it. This drove up their value creating artificially high prices on one hand and made a few insides millionaires overnight.
God help us all if that was the Alberta advantage.
My thanks for shining light on what isn't deemed to be newsworthy by too many "news rooms" (they are all propaganda centres to be honest).
So, when it comes to alternatives, the field is wide open. You can be sure that the sharper Alberta political parties will be researching this.
Yes David that was what the Alberta Advantage was cheap power. The Conservatives took advise that they could not grow "big Business" because we were not graduating sufficient professionals. So, the froze university funding at 1986 levels forcing higher tuitions. They made a decision not to try to graduate anyone unless they had gold enough to do it on their own.; it was cheaper to higher professionals from abroad and over seas.
They have since debilitated our educational system so a grade 10 education passes for a 12 graduations.
If a kid is in a attendance for most of the year they get a pass regardless of what their marks are. People caught in this trap say we are the same as any other province but, we are not!
The only semblance of controls are in the trade school entrance depending on how many kids they need to fill a class (kids with money that is) they will put the entrance requirement at 70% or possibly 40% depending on response.
We have graduated a decade or more of dummies! Now stuck they defend as their education will not allow them to go onto University or any other school out of province.
Raj Sherman looked to this saying it would be a priority to fix this and, he offered massive support for post Graduate students who are really hurting. The Universities make more money from out of province kids (thousands more) than a local kid so we really have the cards stacked against us in so many ways.
It used to be "a corporate town" but now it is a "corporate province" and we are the fodder for it.
Given where money has gone since Lougheed was Premier, and how much of it arrived at its destinations, I have to conclude that those who fight the hardest against a forensic audit are the least trustworthy when it comes to Alberta politics.
Anyway, having more routes out of the province to get product to market is a good thing, which is the original intent of the article. Right?
I disagree. The people of this province are getting nothing back by way of royalty. We support the infrastructure totally through our tax dollars. Tax dollars are the single income from oil we see in this province.
I say leave it in the ground until we get a new Government in place. All parties including the Liberals have been coined by the industry. Honest and integrity will be relative at best.
We are caught somewhere between the outhouse and the woodshed holding a candle for light.
Were you here in Alberta when the NEP was invoked? Needless to say, a lot of oil remained in the ground thanks to that malicious legislation.
Talking a good game about honesty is one thing, showing that there is no one trying to get away with something, via circumventing accountability - that is something different.
Premier Lougheed agreed with and signed the NEP. It's design was to increase Canadian ownership in the oil sands which it did. Canadian Ownership moved I think it was fom 5% to 25% in that period of time. That has all since gone by the board.
A lot of oil remained in the Ground ? What is the matter with that? Instead we have a Government bought and paid for by oil who is robbing this province blind. Stripping the Heritage Trust fund of over 600 billion dollars by holding investment profit at 5% taking everything above and putting it into general revenues to be spent in place of taxes.
I had an email from the Cons the other day 15,000 days in power Get a pad and paper going mark that number at top. Then a column of losses 700 billion would be reasonable now for the heritage loss. How to figure the years of Klein losses when he dropped from 32% down to 16% on royalty? I have guess here; Half a trillion dollars between Klein's start out and where we are now?
I won't go into the indirect taxations but th 10% flat tax the Liberals are happy to do away with is important as it leaves the citizen paying the bulk of the taxes and the oil companies a very short proportion. (figures were up in the Edmonton Journal)
Also you may remember Lougheed cut back production of oil when the prices tanked saying we are not going to give our product away! Now, his heirs are setting up a glut for the sole purpose of reducing the price of oil across north america.
I see nothing at all wrong with leaving the oil in the ground until we get our royalty back, the full market price of the oil back and a stable Government in place.
There are very good reasons why the Conservative will not allow an outside Securities Officer in charge in Alberta! They are too dam crooked to operate under the law. Likewise the deal preventing the RCMP from investigating them without the approval of the Attorney General . How much do you think that works out in total? Perhaps a billion dollars a day x 15000 days that should be in our pockets an isn't.
No; i have no problems of leaving oil in the ground until we get our proper returns and if the prices fall for some reason other than Alberta's self made glut we stop producing.
And our social umbrella is gone! Care for seniors is horrible. Care for the infirm is terrible.
It leaves me sick at heart! We have moved to a US system of medicare; in fairness the Conservatives said they would do that ahead of time no one blinked!
We talk of the hundreds of billions of dollars Norway is holding now operating as Europe Bank. Noway has among the highest educated people in Europe. And, they turn out 70% of their vote every time.
We on the other hand are graduating idiots and can only turn out 22% of our vote on a good day. The Norwegians keep their Governments honest..
The game isn't getting the oil out of the ground the fastest way we can'; it is about making money at it and that is for this province and not just the oil industry.
Fine, then count on less money going to the businesses that service the oil industry.
Getting me to vote Liberal again is impossible, because in 1993 the Alberta Liberals looked more like the Wildrose Alliance today.
If the producers got full price for their oil they would make more money when they were working. Its producers who are taking the biggest hits.
Rather we are being run by an ideal rather than a plan.
We were paying 50 cents per barrel to ship oil by pipeline.Then we toyed with rail. that put us in the 2.00 2.50 range per barrel. ( this is paid by Alberta and the US likes it as they can switch car destinations as soon as they cross the border.
Meanwhile Kinder Morgan finished their second pipeline and using the rail pricing as the new market price the up the cost of using their new pipelines. Suncor complained about the rip off but the Government intent on stripping our resource for free said nothing nor did they intervene.
Now Kinder Morgan is waiting for approval of a 3rd line for which they will most certainly be in the region of 2.00 per barrel to use it.
We need a new Government! Raj Sherman is the only person who even acknowledges the problems. That doesn't mean he can fix everything over night nor will he. That is the responsible part of Government
I see you don't want to take on 1993 and why Laurence Decore was seen to be the better option of more than a few Albertans, when compared to Ralph Klein.
The Alberta Liberals are back to when Nick Taylor was leader.
I will be supporting the Alberta Liberals this election. The polls are showing Alberta Liberals leading and both WRP and Cons have tanked. I see Daniele Smith is borrowing some of Raj' ideas post graduate assistance be the latest.
Dream on ...the libs will never form government in our lifetime...in fact the dippers could possibly be the opposition next election.You are dead wrong in the polls....the WRP numbers keep rising...the libs are static at about 25 tops...it's only the pc's that have tanked. if an election were to be held today they would be the opposition with a WRP majority...
eh you might actually be right about something...for someone that lives in B.C. you post a lot in Ontario about things everywhere else. But you left our nice conversation on carbon tax. Now let me get this right..it's a progressive tax..but it's a regressive tax..so I guess that means it is a progressive regressive tax???? Interesting your posting in 2 newspaper circulations that both declared the B.C. carbon tax a winner.
I live in Alberta, Devon to be specific. Controlling the cost of carbon is seen widely as being the best way to control consumption. Like a sin tax if you like.
I have a problem with it only that it is talked about being implemented by itself and other taxes involved in Petroleum are not considered in the same workup. Gasoline tax for instance.
The WRP has been lurking in the backwater for about 15 years now. The last election put Harper's election team in charge of their campaign. Ex Tory ministers, now working as lobbyists was their front, That is the picture that showed up in unrelated articles!
The foundation of the WRP was built on lies and misdirection and they found a likely and uninformed ear in southern Alberta. I have said before and will say it again; a bunch of nutters.
nice that Claudia in her CAPP sponsored articles at least understands the shame of our poor environmental record in the modern nations pantheon, when globally well respected and well known figures from the UN, churches, Hollywood, the music scene, scientists, medical doctors and media visit the oilsands and condemn our poor stewardship of the area, its adverse effects on its inhabitants and its negative effects on this planet . It's a beginning.
There is no "shame" of our environmental record ...it's above most of the world by far...this is a perception invented by the activists and radical environmental agenda...and that will fade quickly when the cycle returns to higher demand and to higher production....
Our environmental record is carefully tailored and edited so it is so far away from the truth it is hardly recognizable. Most obvious is the shale operations in southern Alberta and the coal bed methane operations. Multi directional drilling punches a bunch of holes though the water aquifers. This allows containments to come up into the water Aquifer which runs like an underground river.
Remote testing devices could be installed downstream from the well. Data could be sent back by radio (transducers) but, this irresponsible government will not entertain doing so held back by fear that something may become public.
even your best buddies at NP disagree with you...face it we suck. If you want your oil industry to work you have to appease people like me, and denial just doesn't work. And you fail on an epic scale, you argue rather than appease, you deny rather than understand. Give us facts , truth and transparency and let us the people decide, or do you fear that? So far all we have are hand-puppets like you denying global warming, denying that oil is a toxic chemical in the environment that is almost impossible to clean up after a spill, denying the oil extraction is environmentally sloppy and done on the cheap, denying the huge swell of people like me that would like more money spent by CAPP and oil corps to ensure the environment is a major concern rather than a PR exercise.
My side is winning and you are losing in the eyes of Canadians. We have stopped NG and KM and just watch us stop Keystone, EE and line 9 through legal protest and court injunctions. Just watch us put our Canadian environment above your precious Chinese oil corporations' profits..
OTTAWA — Canada is doing a bad job of protecting the environment, an official watchdog said on Tuesday, suggesting a poor image for the country on green issues could harm Canadian companies seeking to export crude oil and natural gas.
“There’s no question that the noise outside is having an influence on the process,” he said Wednesday, in an interview in Washington. “The project has been hijacked by activists that are opposed to the development of all fossil fuels.”
The damning report by Neil Maxwell, interim commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, puts more pressure on the Conservative government, which is already under fire for what critics say is a poor environmental record.
Financial Post Nov 13.
“The project has been hijacked by activists that are opposed to the development of all fossil fuels.”The only "bad' thing the government and industry can be accused of is not recognizing the effects of the ongoing propaganda campaign of the radical environmental agenda and the gullibility of people like you, that thrive on hysteria and lies...You are not winning and you will not win because you are wrong....
when Janet Holder is fired and NG is shelved, when Burnaby and Vancouver successfully stop KM, when Keystone is abandoned, when EE/9B are causes of massive protest in Ont/Que/NB, perhaps then you will see the fact that your CAPP and oil buddies are not winning the propaganda race. You tried to buy us, we didn't sell, you tried to brainwash (educate is your term) us, we resisted and fought back with support from hundreds of Canadian scientists, you threatened us we took you to court, we are in the millions you are but a handful a oil corporations. Money may be on your side, but society is backing my side, and good people always win over purely self-interested politicians and corporations. It will take time, but Man's ability for wisdom/Mother Nature/The Big Guy in the Sky, are on our side.
Every year support for pipelines dramatically drops, and we the mothers, fathers, children of tomorrow, the gardeners, musicians, those of faith, the Hollywood actors, the painters and poets, the average joe slugging out a living, grow stronger, louder, and certain in our ability to stop multi-trillion dollar oil corporations indiscriminately pillaging our lands, waters and climate.
You are entitled to live in your little fantasy land but we the mothers, fathers, children of tomorrow, those of faith and the average joe slugging out a living, will grow stronger, louder, and certain in our ability to maintain a reasonable standard of living and productive society free from the destructive influence of the radicals and extremists...Nanos PollWhile Canadians doubt the oil sands’ environmental efforts, they are far less conflicted about pipelines — two-thirds of the people surveyed picked pipelines as the best way to transport oil and gas, compared to rail (16%), truck (12%) and tanker ship (5%).Support for West-to-East pipelines was strongest, with 80% of Canadians strongly supportive or somewhat supportive of projects transporting Alberta oil to refineries in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Alberta’s plans to ship oil to the B.C. coast en route to Asia also had support from two-thirds (66%) of those polled, although Alberta-to-Texas proposal, namely the Keystone XL pipeline, received a less-robust 57% thumbs-up from Canadians.
I'm sure you are a big fan of Bob McDonald (an asteroid was just named for him!!!!) as I am, here's an article written by him in the CBC today. He's a Canadian scientist/media science spokesperson that loves our world, our technology, our country. I suggest you show it to your bosses at CAPP, if they can appease the concerns of Bob, then the industry can say "Bob's your uncle"...and flourish. If you cannot, your industry is doomed to shame, protest and ultimately demise.
"I had the pleasure of exploring the waters of the West Coast this summer, sharing the journey with seals, sea otters, humpback whales and countless other creatures in the sea and within old growth forests.
Part of the trip included Haida Gwaii, formerly the Queen Charlotte Islands, which lie 130 kilometres off the B.C. coast. At the Haida Heritage Centre, in the small town of Skidegate, representatives from Parks Canada gave an excellent presentation on the unique biology and cultural history of the southern tip of the island chain known as theGwaii Haanas National Marine Conservation Reserve Area and Haida Heritage Site. Ancient totem poles from thousands of years of native occupation, and a rich diversity of land and marine life, have earned the area the nickname, “Galapagos of the North.”
Following the presentation, I asked about any restrictions on bringing our sailboat into the area. I was told we would have to take a 90-minute course on where not to anchor, how to deal with discharges (none of any kind is allowed), even when not to use the anchor light at the top of the mast, because it might interfere with migrating birds.
I was impressed that Parks Canada is taking such good care of this precious bio-reserve.
Then I looked at a map and saw that the parade of oil tankers that are supposed to carry bitumen from the proposed Enbridge pipeline will pass just south of that same site.
My sailboat needs a special permit, but tankers carrying hazardous cargo are OK?
A single tanker spill would devastate the area. Is it any wonder the Haida people are totally opposed to the project?
This is just one example of how we need science literacy to be part of decisions we make about energy, water, food, population — in fact, just about anything we do. In this country recently, the voice of government science has been muzzled, so resource extraction can happen more easily. That is short-term thinking.
Most decisions we make in this country involve some aspect of science. That's why science literacy is important for business people, politicians and everyone who votes.
Let's let science be a voice of reason, not to stop progress, but to proceed in a sustainable way that is good for this incredibly beautiful and interconnected system that we live in."
while you and I can pick polls that support each of our arguments, one matter is certain in polls, there is a significant decline in support for pipelines in Canada and the US over the last few years and the trend is continuing. If you know Quebec, you will understand why EE is doomed, the strongest folks against pipelines are not BCers but Quebecers, and if you know the people of southern Ont., you'll understand why 9B is doomed, lots of educated environmentally active young folks strongly against Harper and his oil buddies pipelines. You know the people of BC, and yet you don't realize NG/KM are also doomed.
The politics of 2015 is going to change the oil industry in Alberta and Canada, you may wish to soften your anger against us Canadians and work with us for a better cleaner beautiful Canada rather than the Hiroshima-ization of beautiful northern Alberta and destruction of BC's coast.
smashed your Willie Nelson records and DiCaprio dvds lately?
I very much understand that mining facilities in the oil sands looks terrible. It's an open pit mine, all open pit mines look terrible. I wonder though, do you think Hollywood, churches, medical doctors etc. Think as poorly about in situ sites? Surely their pristine forests (though with swaths cut out for access roads) are a great alternative to mines. I also wonder if since the bulk of Alberta reserves are trapped only for in situ development if the negative 'image' somehow fades?
Look at any open pit mine and you'll see what you do with oil sands mines. The difference is the level of scrutiny, and the ability of government to force companies to develop reclamation plans, to monitor water ways, to respond to access requests, and to plan for the future. We can argue that they're not doing enough, and talk about how to do more. But let's stop the shaming for providing a resource we all use. Let's understand that places like Syria, Iraq, UAE, and Russia do not have a better environmental track record, or more responsible development. Most don't even track carbon output.
The oilsands are a viable industry which needs all the help we can give it. There is an unfortunate mess left behind because it was shelved for so many years it became unmanageable. I'm speaking of Mildred Lake now and it is a little more than unsightly.
The Government paid for an experimental extraction process for Mildred Lake. It cost taxpayers 700,000 dollars a month and involved 6 very large centrifuges to spin the water off the slug and the residue was taken by conveyors to huge mounds.
Now the Journal reports a new company is going to get rich fast by salvaging exotic minerals from that slug. They are looking for investors but they don't break out how they are going to extract or if they are just working off the inventory of those huge expensive mounds that taxpayers built for them.
This was part of the make work program that Albert created for the oil industry in the down turn where so many illegal immigrants were working they could not collect EI. That spun the disaster in immigration started the the FED.
Gasoline went up 3¢ a liter overnight. But everybody knows abundant supply, falling oil prices and cutthroat competition drives costs up, especially prior to Canadian holiday weekends.
Prices in Canada are still too high compared with our neighbours to the south. 92 a litre in Erie PA. Toronto $1.33 ???? Huge difference. I guess big shots in Calgary love their massive profits and politicians love their massive taxes. Canadian gouging at its finest. In America they operate on a true supply and demand business model. They have production costs, crude purchase, marketing, distribution, profit, taxes etc and price it at 92 cents a litre. Why are Canadians asked to pay 41 cents a litre more when the world has too much oil on hand? The price has been cooked up by fat cats in a back room!
Look at the taxes..and double taxes by the locals and the feds...
Why do we pay $20 for a $15 book. Oh I thought that was in the budget. Mr.Flaherty's fair pricing commission. Oh ..he's gone now. Who did Harper work for in Alberta?
See above post
nope...when all taxes are taken out we still pay more.
The cost of business is higher is Canada. But federal and provincial tariffs sure do jack up the price. That's why every politician to promises to look into these price differentials never get back to us. A big chunk of it comes from our goverment. Taxes and the hidden tariffs built into our prices.
Alberta Conservatives discount our oil at 30% off world trade prices; this according to Canadianhigh commissioner Stewart Beck. Alberta collects zero for royalty and the building of power lines and roads needed are co-oped across the population. Itis the producers taking the biggest hit for this folly and it is flooding the markets.
Oil 100% Alberta treasury 0! In fact, if you look at their various schemes and consider their figures, Albertans are paying the oil giants to take the oil from the province!
On transport. Alberta was paying 50 cents a barrel to ship oil by pipeline. They continued to overproduce for the market demand and ended up opting for rail. It is reported they pay between 2.00 and 2.50 per barrel to ship rail.
With this overheated, over producing background Kinder Morgan is apply for a Third pipeline. Their second pipeline jacked the prices up far beyond what was being charged on the 1st. The third will probably knock a few cents off the rail price. If this isn't government mismanagement; I don't know what is.
This is just plain nonsense....60% of alberta oil revenue comes from WCS sales. The royalties are based on market price and ranges from about 25-40%
Such juvenile BS! WCS and Brent and switched regularly to which ever is the less another means of discounting. There is no royalty collected! When Klein took over Government the royalty was 32% on finished plants. Then plants started to get finished and when Klein left office the royalty rate was 16% Then came Stelmach with his new royalty regime that was released on the eve of the election because they were in trouble there. What it did was pump out a sheet of nonsense numbers that would never be reached and quietly changed our royalty from being taken as US dollars to Canadian at that time a loss of 18% to us. And, people like you ate it up!Finally Ron Liepert left office saying the royalty was reduced to 6% now and would stay there for 5 years. 5 years later and its zero.
The Conservative ideals say we are only entitled to revenue from the sale of lease land and the only income is from income taxes of workers and companies.
When you get finished crunching numbers you will see it is as I said we are actually paying the oil companies to take the product from the province,
LOL, even you Clark must realize that the Alberta Conservatives do not set the price of oil... don't you?? As for the roads, it's the oil companies that build the roads, if the government wishes they can take over the roads, but they then have to high grade and pave them (look up the Strand road in Northern Atla to get some idea). The road north of Slave Lake was built by the oil companies and then taken over and upgraded by the province to link up the comunities north of there... ie Red Earth etc.. Same with the remote roads in Northern BC, a forestry company, or mine will build the roads they need, if the government deems it in the public interest they will take it over and upgrade it. As for power, it is the sites themselves that generate the powerm usually via a cogen plant for the steam, produce electricity as a by product of producing the steam and then sell the excess to the grid, the government pays nothing but it has allowed Alberta to shutter a couple of coal plants. You did notice the headline that Alberta is expecting a surplus due to higher then predicted prices for oil... so that means more royalty, currently the Alberta government takes a cash settlement for bitumen royalties, but that is going to change, like conventional they will take a share of production and market it themselves.
Good spin. It is taxpayer money that pays for those roads and yes, Alberta sets the price for the oil they ship and both conventional and sands are discounted the same! And, as for power lines they are being built by public money so the Oil companies can export their power to the US on those same lines. Incidental Alberta only builds lines to its borders. Southern partners in Montana take it up from there. The reason being if Alberta exported power on its own lines to the US it would put the Fed in charge of pricing and export.
While I'm on it the NEW DC lines are a larger diameter than the older AC lines. This is to handle more current as DC travels on the outside of the line; AC on the inside. Both can co exist in the same lines. Producers figure above a 30% increase in profits from those lines yet fortis is charging Alberta meters an extra percentage (they are talking 25%) as costs on the lines. We are getting our pocket picked on every side under the Conservatives!