Disqus - Latest Comments for dowoper8tr

Re: The Waterfall is Drying Up - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 16:16:51 -0000

Just enough intraday pop today to punk me on SPY for a schnitzel but kept me alive on AGU, HANS, RRC and CMG. Here's to tomorrow's job report DISappointing; however the selloff into today's close makes me wonder if the trap is set for a ramp after the release.

Re: Waterfall Decline - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 21:05:45 -0000

Whataday. I added to a few winning short positions during lunch with the belief that McO prints a 0 line failure by Thurs; TICK 3DEMA continues to find resistance at +300 and the bulls continued failure to capitalize on $TRIN peaks are a sign of persistent selling to come despite the OS indicators we all watch. Stops in place in case I'm wrong.

Surlytrader.com has a timely post concerning SPX option skews for 10% and 15% OTM strikes http://www.surlytrader.com/ Good luck out there.

Re: Waterfall Decline - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 19:24:10 -0000

Thanks very much to you and JayHawk91 for the feedback. I have a hard time wrapping my mind around PM's in general these days. I had read some time ago that the GLD etf trustee held more physical gold than anyone which I assumed meant CB's, but I probably misunderstood. In the very early 90's CB's would dump gold on the market, for instance at $400. France and Germany can only backstop so much of the PIIGS and I wonder if their holdings of gold would be needed at some point in the future. More $ to banks who can't lend to folks who won't borrow sounds stagflationary and with all the financial market turmoil I would expect PM's to sizzle yet they continually confound me. Now that $XAD is falling apart is gold magically decoupling from a very tight 19 year corelation? Not to mention that everyone touts gold which is starting to sound like a contrarian trade.

Re: Waterfall Decline - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 15:45:17 -0000

For the resident PM pros:
1) Who is largest physical holder of gold and silver--the ETF's??
2) Does Central Bank selling even matter anymore in PM's?
3) Would EU members need to sell PM's to raise cash to support the Euro?
4) Can inflation truly resurface given near 10% unemployment here and more coming over there?

Curious as to your thoughts on these. Thanks!

Re: Gold Primed - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 22:03:29 -0000

I have zero conviction, or the success, you guys seem to have with PM's but SPX offers me more encouragement. We could be on the precipice of the next cliff dive for SPX. I like what I'm seeing and McO is perched at 0 again---- with plenty of room to go either way. Frankly, I'd like to see an McO failure next week that pushes SPX under 1000. Perhaps the world finally realizing the EU is a frog in gently boiling water will be the trigger.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc... The downtrend line is proving powerful and delineates bull from bear in my mind.

Good Luck out there.

Re: Whipsaws - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Wed, 26 May 2010 20:29:31 -0000

I'm with you on those 2 and looking for the long awaited decoupling from SPX. Short SPX and long these with a Pioneer's trail blazing spirit. Weren't Pioneers usually the first to get shot while their wagon's burned :-0

Re: Whipsaws - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Tue, 25 May 2010 21:59:30 -0000

Very quiet in here lately. Almost as if posters have taken their wisdom past the velvet ropes and into a VIP room :-)

Nice reversal today. Sucked me in the wrong way yet I fell compelled to be patient and wait for the turn. I see a few signs that lead me to believe this sell-off will persist but a close above SPX 1090 would change my bias.

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Thu, 20 May 2010 18:48:21 -0000

Good job on the puts. I parked GTC call orders at SPX1050 level for a suicide play. I either get smoked or catch a bounce somewhere in these big candles.

What are you doing?

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Thu, 20 May 2010 18:42:07 -0000

SPY puts made some very good noise the last 2 weeks. I caught 40+ and 60+ handles and bailed at the close today. Trades like that cover many sins--like ABX and SLW. I AM the contrary PM indicator, no doubt about it. Bad news for you PM pros is that I plan to either go bust on those calls or make a damn profit atleast once before I die. Contrary signal right there???

Re: Oversold Bounce Likely

dowoper8tr — Wed, 19 May 2010 18:43:02 -0000

Time in the wilderness will turn a good man surly :-)

I have to agree with the article linked by both esteemed posters; charts look quite promising for bears. I'm starting to feel surly and feral myself.

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Wed, 19 May 2010 18:20:04 -0000

I warned you guys i got long ABX and SLW :-)
I'm very happy with SPY though and believe it can crack very important TL's on the SPX weekly chart. Probably not tomorrow, but very soon:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Tue, 18 May 2010 22:03:16 -0000

Not too bad today and hope you held your puts. I'm going to keep pushing on the string until 1100 shows itself another time. Then those unexplored tails left from last week. Good luck to you.

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Mon, 17 May 2010 17:34:39 -0000

They were looking very nice until lunchtime. I kept some 115's from the week leading to the 'glitch' and added 3 more times since; so today's clawback is either the time to add again or I get blasted in the face by a rally. I'm still leaning towards bear victory for the week and hoping the extreme $TRIN reading at Friday's close coupled with today's failure to make anything of it = 1100 this week.

Re: Louder Noise - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Sun, 16 May 2010 19:42:32 -0000

I like your optimism on SPX but we're in a market with quite a few air pockets and I see plenty of bearish signs that hint at more dowside. 1100-1050 looks suitable for a new range. $SOX and $BKX both are putrid. If Tech is supposed to lead and Financials are drinking the Fed mother's milk, then both charts are failing to live up to the promise. Also, McO has more downside room to go and TICK 3DEMA has had trouble holding 0 in May--- and is once again just under it. The best thing bulls have going for Monday is $TRIN and the usual Monday mergers.
If the market can't bounce tomorrow then I expect bears to win the week. I have SPY puts counting on it----and some SLW and ABX calls. I'm an atrocious timer of PM's so you PM bulls are forewarned :-(

Re: $COMPX

dowoper8tr — Tue, 11 May 2010 19:05:41 -0000

Point up for the monthly chart. I like the contrarian bullish trade as much as anyone, but wow, if $SPX monthly monthly PPO can hold off the death cross it would be a feat of strength not seen since the '91-'00 bull run. Parking put entries for a possible 1000 target is not a bad idea ;-) Now, how to park those orders within that ugly tail and not get snookered is the tricky part:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Re: Free Fall

dowoper8tr — Mon, 10 May 2010 08:31:29 -0000

If we had an 'over-reaction' to the downside then might as well have one to the upside. Truth is somewhere in between and I would be feeling much better right now had i not been so cheap with my planned call entries on Friday. Great job to the opportunist who bought calls on the close.

Re: Free Fall

dowoper8tr — Fri, 07 May 2010 15:34:08 -0000

Any Market Delta users here? I'm not but wondering where the volume bulges are in this range.

Re: Free Fall

dowoper8tr — Fri, 07 May 2010 15:11:57 -0000

Amen. IV's are pumped and we all tend to forget that ranges occur far more than trends, still, IF i get an entry I figure it an opportunity to explore any Monday pop. If no entry, no big deal. Bottom of yesterdays candle + a few points will have to serve as a stop. In the meantime, I'm still carrying a few left over puts with an exit at today's lows. Fingers crossed and watching the slow bleed.

Re: Free Fall

dowoper8tr — Fri, 07 May 2010 14:19:15 -0000

hmmm....will the big money set decide to clear the decks before heading home to mull the future? I parked call orders below 1085 just in case we do selloff at the close and get Monday pop

Re: Key Levels Fast Approaching

dowoper8tr — Fri, 07 May 2010 12:03:47 -0000

wonderful past 2 days after a rough day for me on Wed. I was very lucky to be holding SPY119 and 115 puts and dumped the 119's at 1100 this am but still looking for something lower to dump the 115's into. Not often this longer-term trend rider catches 75 handles in 48 hours. A weak close before the weekend sounds like the 'safe' bet for trading desks.

Re: Charter Membership - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Thu, 06 May 2010 21:46:51 -0000

the market do anything today?? :-)
Just my freaken luck. I started with a new company today and missed the action. Vomitted a little in my mouth when I got home a saw the high prints on my SPY puts; but who really got to sell out at those prices?? With any luck I'll get another crack at unloading positions around 1100-1080 tomorrow. If we blast higher tomorrow........

Not all was well though, C is proving to be cruel and really testing my spirit.

Good luck to any SPY players tomorrow.

Re: Charter Membership - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com

dowoper8tr — Tue, 04 May 2010 22:07:33 -0000

I see it was a wild day today and we're running up the post count! $TRIN, TICK 3DEMA, VIX:VXV and VIX:TNX point to a possible bounce tomorrow. I got triggered on a new round of SPY puts today but won't be surprised to see a bounce before any test of 1150. Also have another put entrys parked under 1150 for a possible stab at 1122-ish. Might as well plan ahead :-)

I'd like to see PM's come in a bit and let me on board. Also, there's a big fib at SPX 1150. GS acted nicely today given all else. Put that in with the above indicators as another reason to not go overly wild on the short side.

Re: A Few Charts For a Friday

dowoper8tr — Sat, 01 May 2010 21:45:16 -0000

No, I'm not that person and lead only myself. I have made enough mistakes in the market over the last 20+ years to have learned a few things about my risk profile. Good luck with your blog.

Re: A Few Charts For a Friday

dowoper8tr — Sat, 01 May 2010 11:26:56 -0000

Still a very nice profit! I feel you on those lost 'opportunity' profits since they often come back to haunt. Those are the profits that coulda, wouda, shoulda made up for a lot of my eventual losers. It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose to early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money.

Re: A Few Charts For a Friday

dowoper8tr — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 21:53:23 -0000

I'd like to hear about your GS puts today. I imagine you did well. Did the June 160's more than double today on the dump and the IV pump?