Disqus - Friends of danny42nd

Re: VIX support @ 20 continues...

traderbean — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 01:10:44 -0000

this is a test #2.

Re: VIX support @ 20 continues...

traderbean — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 23:28:45 -0000

Hello Lisa,

the chart shows bearish divergence... that means, prices are rising, but distribution is taking place, so, I think the sector is getting ready for a correction... thats when you want to buy solars, especially if its for more than a day/week trade..

Re: USO Chart

traderbean — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 10:29:48 -0000

Z, I just watching USO right now...

Re: USO Chart

traderbean — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:35:14 -0000

gotta pay attention to the VIX...Its been a very good barometer to where the market is heading...I posted that we will most likely continue to 22.5, which is right where we closed today... so now, do we head back to 19-20 again? OR, do we break the resistance line and move higher... I sold my calls last week around VIX 20, as I thought the rally would fizzle...Once I see VIX below 19, I will be a strong buyer..but until then, I nibble for a few days...

Re: USO Chart

traderbean — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 12:44:29 -0000

Hello Michael,

The purpose to show back in 05/06, is to point out the diverging pattern is repeating itself...While you can be bullish on an hourly/daily time frame, just keep the big picture in mind... When the weekly MACD starts descending, be ready for puts/shorts...

Re: USO Chart

traderbean — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 12:48:50 -0000

VIX at 22.5 could fall back again for a nice pop in the market... Looks like retail will bounce here in 2008...I like the price action on KSS....bullish diverging chart forming...

Hey Z, when I changed the template on this site, I lost the number of comments, now it just shows "comments", not "10 comments".. How do I get that back without changing the template yet again...

Re: VIX resistance @ 22.5;breakout or retrace?

traderbean — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 11:12:42 -0000

Hello LowBidder,

While your WNR is showing divergence, its still got a long way to go, as its not close to the MACD zero line, which is where the big move is made....Also, its one giant trough, rather than several trough's, where each trough is becoming smaller as they approache the macd zero line... To see what I mean, check out a weekly chart of KSS, AEO, or RTH.. These show several troughs, that are becoming smaller and smaller as they approachs the macd zero line...

Copy/paste this...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Re: VIX resistance @ 22.5;breakout or retrace?

traderbean — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 13:39:08 -0000

Well, you got the sell signal once the VIX broke above 22.5...

Now, its anyone's guess where we stop... With a jobs report coming out, and no "significant" earnings reported until AA next week, we could continue down for the rest of the week...

The market seems to rally right before earnings (ie., ORCL, RIMM). I am watching AA closely, and so far, its doing fine... last 2 years it popped nicely in January.. And since it has not run up ahead of earnings, I expect a pop next week...

BBBY reports tomorrow, has bullish divergence (most retail's do).
MON reports tomorrow, has bearish divergence.

Re: XLF Chart - review of 2007

traderbean — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 09:54:34 -0000

Retail index (RTH) just broke below 200, unless it can find a way back above, we are heading lower...

Re: XLF Chart - review of 2007

traderbean — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 12:33:07 -0000

I don't look at daily, I look at weekly... And the weekly 200, shows a break below..

copy/paste this..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...

Re: XLF Chart - review of 2007

traderbean — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 12:44:15 -0000

By the way...AA is moving upwards today... the chart shows MACD right near zero line, where big moves take place...they report next week..

I am taking a small shot with BBBY puts today... so far so good in an up market..

MON reported good numbers this AM, revised guidance upwards...its up 7% today..

Re: XLF Chart - review of 2007

traderbean — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:31:04 -0000

I was going to go long MON for a trade...Uggg...missed it..

But, I didn't miss BBBY... My 27.5 puts for $1 should do okay tomorrow...
BBBY is down AH to 25.50! It that price holds, thats about 200% return..

Re: RTH Chart - Looking for support, not finding any..

traderbean — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:42:18 -0000

Nice Z, how much time are you giving your strangle before earnings release?

Re: Forget US retail- I’m switching to World Class Global

traderbean — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:29:37 -0000

If you liked INTC feb 22.5 for $2.50, you love'em for $1.20! Sheesh!

Re: Economic data out...

traderbean — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:26:54 -0000

Hey LowBidder,

I checked the daily charts, SPY is well below the 200 at 141.33. The 200dma is 147.97. On the Q's, its just below the 200, at 48.40, and on the NDX, it too is just below the 200 at 1963.

As for divergence, I use the weekly chart instead of daily..

Interesting to note: if you chart the NDX on a weekly chart, it stopped right at the 50ma. Each time last year that it approached the 50, it bounced.. The Q's have also hit the 50ma at the close..

The weekly chart is nice, because it shows a bigger picture of what is going on...

I will post a few charts this weekend...
tb

Re: Economic data out...

traderbean — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:47:31 -0000

The SPY is at an area it has bounced from each time...

My take from observing the market, is the market doesn't like the economic calendar. That is, when all there is to report, are same store sales, jobless claims, etc, the market sells off.. But, when companies report earnings, those companies, and others are lifted because of their positive report..

Also to note, the market likes to tank ahead of earnings...

That said...I'm...

Holding long AA ahead of earnings next week..
Long AAPL today ahead of mac world..
Long INTC today ahead of earnings..

Holding short JPM ahead of earnings..
Holding short SGP ahead of earnings..
Covered BBBY short after earnings today..

Also to note, the VIX is still rising...MACD not at the zero line yet, so still room to go to the upside...But, I am counting on a pullback next week to fill the gap it left ahead of citigroup's earnings release the following week...

Anyone know when the next FED meeting is? Is it Jan 29/30?
tb

Re: Economic data out...

traderbean — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 12:36:15 -0000

yes, it was today, near the lows..but in hindsight, its was best to wait until end of day to grab anything...

Re: Economic data out...

traderbean — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 13:06:37 -0000

Bidder,

If you look at the 2 troughs in the weekly SPY, it shows a low in AUG, and a smaller low in NOV, the slope between the 2 troughs at their peak is rising..

at the same time, you compare the slope of the prices at the same peak point, they are flat..

so, rising macd, flat prices equals divergence..

this week the macd fell further, than the past 5 weeks, indicating more selling make continue, before the rising macd kicks back in...

By the way, the VIX has been the most accurate indicator for me so far...

Re: AA earnings are a blow out--that's my theory

traderbean — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:23:03 -0000

actually, selling puts means, they dont expect it to go below 32.5, that those puts will expire worthless if held until 3rd week in january..

Re: AA earnings are a blow out--that's my theory

traderbean — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:26:11 -0000

Anyone playing KBH tomorrow? you have 3 hours after the open before they report earnings...

Re: AA earnings are a blow out--that's my theory

traderbean — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 20:53:31 -0000

if you have access to level 2, you can watch the activity...besides
the program buying and selling, there are individuals..

when the size of the bidding/asking is large enough, and
frequent enough, you start to wonder whats going on...

21,892 contracts were executed today....

Re: SPY Chart - 3 year trend line approaching...

traderbean — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 14:39:35 -0000

Z, All I am certain about is the uncertainty of this market..

Re: The New Normal

traderbean — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 20:35:30 -0000

Tim, long time listener, first time caller. Oh, this isn't a radio show....

Anyway, when you mention the puts you are positioned in, are you generally grabbing puts out 3 months, or front month, and are they in the money, or out of the money? I know it depends on the stock, or index....But, comments like "I'm going to hang on to this (TSO) put for a long time", suggests to me that maybe you bought TSO puts for a year out? The challenge for me is what month, and what strike..

Thanks
tb

Re: Sentiment...

traderbean — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:21:09 -0000

MOS did fantastic for me today....

The financial markets did really well this week... A hammer was put on the XLF..Look at the weekly chart...look at the weekly volume...amazing...

options expire this next week... isn't this the perfect week to surprise the market with a rate cut?

Re: Sentiment...

traderbean — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:27:22 -0000

Look at the IWM weekly chart in the Quick Glance section...

Notice the 200ma red line...It's acting as support...In the daily chart, the IWM crossed well below the 200dma, and shows no support in sight...So, when looking for long term support, use the weekly chart...