Disqus - Friends of crazygirl

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/criminal_bears.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:52:38 -0000

Another long-time lurker here-- greetings all. I am not seeing anything stating that the ban will be on all short-selling. On Bloomberg.com in a recent update ("Update 3"), it says that a temporary ban on the short-selling of Wall St. brokerages is being considered but has yet to be approved. Is there a more recent release that I am missing? Thanks.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/criminal_bears.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:35:47 -0000

"The details of the SEC's measures are unclear. The ban must be approved by the commissioners, and there's no word on which stocks are covered or for how long it will be in effect." This is on the CNBC website. Perhaps it will not be a blanket policy-- let's hope.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/criminal_bears.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:47:11 -0000

Sledge, you may underestimate how long it could take for the financial sector to get back on its feet. For those of us who make a living doing this, even a few weeks is potentially crippling. From everything I'm hearing and reading so far, I can't find anything that says that all short-selling will be banned, and I think it is more likely that the ban will be on brokerage stocks. Whether or not that would include the short ETFs, I have no idea, but I would think a strong case could be made for their exemption. In any case, we'll know soon.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/20/old_faithful.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:46:29 -0000

Hi Tim-- I don't post often, but I've kept up with your blog for a long while now, and find the discourse refreshingly intelligent (for the most part) and entertaining. Your post tonight inspired a few comments: on juggling multiple accounts, I have a similar arrangement as you-- although gradually, over the years, I have begun to trade my IRA more actively. For one thing, trade accounting is much easier in an IRA-- but mostly, I have upped the profits considerably by shaking the buy & hold bias of an IRA. On trading SDP specifically, I agree the chart setup is enticingly bullish, but the thing barely trades-- how do you sleep at night with a large position in something that is lucky to turn over 25,000 shares by noon? I've traded it on occasion and had a hard time unloading shares when I was ready to close out. Maybe I'll nibble again. In any case, thanks for the service you provide here-- you have a loyal following.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/02/your_wish_list.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 21:46:40 -0000

Sounds good to me as well. Not all of us can read all your posts all the time, and sometimes the shift from your bearish mindset to piling on long can seem dizzying (like the market these days). It would be great to see at a glance which way the wind is blowing moment to moment in your mind. The red/green arrow at the top of the page would be very helpful-- even better would be something like: green arrow/commodities if your bullishness (for example) extends only or primarily to certain sectors. Thanks for collecting input.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/03/how_about_this_one.htm

Brinkley — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:51:40 -0000

I find that keeping an eye on the McClellan Oscillators (ratio adjusted) helps gauge near-term market direction very reliably. At the moment we're getting short-term overbought, suggesting a pullback or some consolidation is not far off. At the same time, the inverse head & shoulders on the major indices are bullish. We might have a day or two max to the upside before we correct to some extent. Keep in mind these are short-term indicators, but very helpful for entry/exit guidelines. As you can see on the charts, we're nearing pretty extreme readings. http://stockcharts.com/char...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/03/how_about_this_one.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:29:28 -0000

No, you can't really look at it that way. The oscillator is an indicator of market breadth, generating short to intermediate-term buy and sell signals. Price isn't a factor-- it's calculated from the difference between advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq or NYSE. Overbought conditions can be worked off by either a correction or consolidative sideways action.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/03/how_about_this_one.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:38:39 -0000

I don't see a triangle, but it may be trying to put in a double bottom here. I'd hold off getting long until/unless it can take out today's high on a little better volume-- and even then I'd keep a pretty tight stop in place until it is in confirmed uptrend.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/03/how_about_this_one.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:16:57 -0000

You are most welcome-- but it's "ma'am" ;)

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/08/comfort_for_the_bears.htm

Brinkley — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 18:06:57 -0000

I agree that a near-term bearish outlook is probably a good bet. Not only are we butting up against resistance and eyeing the 50-day ema's on the Dow and S&P, the McClellan's very, very, rarely get much more stretched than this: http://www.stockcharts.com/.... Add to that the fact that sharp downdrafts in today's climb made the action feel heavy in many issues after the early run-up, and selling into the close showed further evidence that traders are locking in some profits after a "big" advance. Watch those McClellans before getting aggressive again on the long side, maybe after some consolidation or a correction.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/playing_it_a_skosh_safe.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:13:14 -0000

It would be far better for the bears IMHO, if the market can claw its way up a little more before we break down hard. The juice might just not be there, however. The bulls' "rally" effort has been pretty lame thus far (despite nice gains in select stocks).

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/11/playing_it_a_skosh_safe.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 18:00:38 -0000

Does anyone else have difficulty scrolling down this page? For me, there is always a delay and it moves down in inches-- very frustrating.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/15/oh_those_retracements.htm

Brinkley — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 19:32:06 -0000

I've got to disagree with Tim about gold stocks. There are some very bullish patterns in some of the group, and the stocks are acting well. RGLD has been consolidating just below its all-time highs and is poised to breakout, with a very bullish long-term chart pattern; GOLD acts strong with a chart that is also starting to shape up nicely, and IAU has been percolating the last few sessions and looks ready to go soon. Personally, I've never much cared for trading the gold stocks and some still look and act quite sloppy, but the ones I mentioned are actually acting better than most sectors right now. CMP has been very strong, and unrelated, but BIDU has also found a steady bid since testing support in the $100 area.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/12/15/oh_those_retracements.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 02:23:25 -0000

Yes, I agree there is logic to that, although I try not to give as much credence to fundamentals and reasons as I do simply to the stock/sector action. I'd just keep stops tight until the picture becomes a little clearer-- but a number of these leading gold stocks look ready to rumble near-term.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/21/thinking_leaner.htm

Brinkley — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:43:01 -0000

Tim, I'm not a frequent poster, but I follow your commentary fairly regularly and have made my living trading for a good many years now. With that little prelude, I've always been stunned at the number of positions you carry and in all honesty never could quite figure out why. Ten positions is an overload for me, and my preference is generally to have around 5 or 6 open at a time. I'm trading numerous accounts, so that increases the load, but I can't imagine trying to keep up with stops on as many positions as you often manage. Instead, I prefer to build positions in stocks that are working well (as opposed to lots of smaller positions). But hey, whatever works, right? Great site.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/23/downslope.htm

Brinkley — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 14:03:28 -0000

I'd take the rationale out of it and watch the stock action. RGLD is on fire and has been a leader in the group. A retest of the highs appears likely-- if/when that occurs, watch to see if it can break out to new highs. Personally I'm not a fan of shorting something just because it's up a lot. Short weak stocks on strength; buy strong stocks on weakness.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/27/our_friend_spd.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 18:28:24 -0000

Obama's plan gives tax cuts for those earning considerably more than $75,000. No tax increase for anyone earning less than $250,000, and cuts for income up to around $150,000 AGI. There are many Obama tax cut calculators out there, including one on the Obama website, where you can check this. McCain was the only one saying the cut-off was a $75,000 income level-- even while Obama continued to spell out the higher level daily.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/28/commodities.htm

Brinkley — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:23:54 -0000

Tim-- I've been watching so many inverse head & shoulder patterns set up over the past couple of weeks that it's been hard for me to commit to the bearish side for now, even though the market certainly has had one hell of a tug of war going on. Even some of the gold stocks have large inverse h&s patterns, suggesting that the gold bugs looking for 1,000 may prove correct. No doubt it will continue to be a whip-saw ride either way.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/11/gimme_five.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:58:13 -0000

My data is messed up-- can someone give me an update on the futures? How much are the nq's & es off? Thanks

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/11/gimme_five.htm

Brinkley — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 07:55:55 -0000

Thanks much

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/16/heterogeniety.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 00:34:02 -0000

Gold is soaring and just broke through major resistance. Not a "gold bug" here by any means, but some of the gold stocks and gold etf's have well-defined bullish inverse head & shoulder bases and look excellent.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/17/plain_and_simple.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 16:50:01 -0000

Personally, I think a realistic target is more like 350-- but not for awhile, and not until we've had a good, strong rally that lasts a few weeks at minimum, and potentially a few months. The big sell-off will occur only after a convincing rally has roped everyone in and new money is put back to work. By the way-- I sincerely hope I will be proven wrong, but my charts say otherwise.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/17/plain_and_simple.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 16:54:03 -0000

If you're referring to the transaction tax that is being discussed once again-- it would have an absolutely enormous effect on all active traders, to the point of putting many traders, hedge funds, etc. out of business. God help us all if this thing is ever enacted. I do this for a living, and would most likely have to close up shop if a transaction tax every gets written into law. Your 0.25 tax on the level of trading many of us do would be devastating. Keep in mind the tax would apply to losing trades as well as winning trades.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/17/plain_and_simple.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:14:26 -0000

Unfortunately I don't have a way to upload charts at the moment, but one very strong pattern to watch is the long-term double top on the $SPX (pull up a monthly chart and go back 20 years or so). If that breaks down convincingly below support, it would resolve in the 350 area.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/17/plain_and_simple.htm

Brinkley — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:15:51 -0000

Ah. It sounded as if you were arguing FOR the tax. My bad.