Disqus - Latest Comments for bm90266

Re: Punishment on MBB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

bm90266 — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 10:28:03 -0000

Yikes, reading ADL go on and on almost causes me to spit up back in my mouth.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, every time a real estate sales person gets a commission check, they should bend over and kiss the ground. There are few occupations that "earn" as much money while bringing so little to the table

Re: Late-Bubble Beauty Slammed Upon Resale | Manhattan Beach Confidential

bm90266 — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 20:11:41 -0000

How can anyone possibly be surprised about prices continuing lower? Record low interest rates and still no movement up in prices. Titanic loads of money flowing to financials at 0%, (doing my best Carl Sagan, RIP) "trillions and trillions" of bad paper still to pay for, a symphony of Nero's fiddling on Wall St and people still think RE values are at or near bottom. Geez, wake the "f" up.

Re: Frequent Star in the Gallery of Cuts | Manhattan Beach Confidential

bm90266 — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 16:27:37 -0000

The local housing market at/near bottom. Think so? I don't. Still expectin' a 1/2%-2% monthly decline to continue for a few years to come. With mortgage rate at/near all time lows and no price rally in sight, I think a further slow decline is in order.

Re: Median Price Bouncing Back | Manhattan Beach Confidential

bm90266 — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 12:26:06 -0000

Haven't dropped by here in awhile. Still see the same (albeit less) arguments going on. I still feel the same as ever about re around here, or just about anywhere else for that matter. Prices will continue downward somewhere between ½% - 2% a month for some time to come. Maybe as long as 5 years or more. There simply are not the fundamentals in place to justify an overall value increase and likely will not be for years to come. Get over it everyone. It's going to be a long slow process (if we're lucky).

Re: Big Changes North & East

bm90266 — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 09:27:30 -0000

I still get surprised when I see sales like 440 6th St. Over 3 million for a very nice home, but still a glorified tall and skinny on a small, street to alley lot. I guess maybe it looks like a great deal because it started at 4.5 million.

Re: Close the Books on 848 14th

bm90266 — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 10:50:51 -0000

To label the implications of what could possibly have happened in the 605 Pacific situation as a "scam" is putting it lightly. If an agent, buyer or anybody else knowingly involved, deliberately defrauded a lender of potential monies due, I'm guessing it's possibly a crime and could lead to some serious legal and/or professional sanctions.

Re: Hi, I'm Dave

bm90266 — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 16:49:45 -0000

Even though I only come by this site once a week or so, I'm still interested. However watching the long, slow decline of values around here is about as exciting as watching paint dry. We aren't even considering buying at this point. Then again, if something really spectacular pops up...you never know...

Re: Weekend Opens (2/20-2/21)

bm90266 — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 14:53:18 -0000

Per BCH, "Meanwhile, the market looks like its heating up." posted 02-22-10. Noted.

Does that mean this is a good time to buy?

BTW, the refinery is a pretty disgusting place. I've toured it.

Re: Weekend Opens (1/16-1/17)

bm90266 — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:09:30 -0000

The Chevron refinery adjacent to North Manhattan/El Porto gives me the creeps. You can Google "Chevron El Segundo Oil Spill" and come up with quite a bit of info just like the following -

"...One of Chevron's largest refinery complexes, converting crude oil into fuels, asphalt, and other petrochemical products. There is a tank at the site where over the years 200 million gallons of oil has leaked into the ground. Arguably the world's largest known "oil spill", equivalent in quantity to 18 Exxon Valdez's..."

Apparently, ChevronTexaco has been working for over 20 years to mitigate the effects from the spill/leak but have decided that they've done about as much as they can. 18 Exxon Valdez's??? Yikes!!!

Re: Holiday Open Forum (12/27- )

bm90266 — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 13:55:46 -0000

Take a gander at the following video from CNBC. Of special note is a chart Mr Faber prepared to illustrate a possible large wave of foreclosures on the horizon -

http://www.cnbc.com/id/1584...

I believe it noteworthy to mention CNBC is often considered to be on the conservative/business friendly side of business journalism.

Re: Holiday Open Forum (12/27- )

bm90266 — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 11:22:30 -0000

Sans the middle school insults, I have to agree with what I believe is BCH's premise. Almost without complete regard to how far MB's median, ppsf or whatever other measurement you might use falls, the economic strata of home buyers in Manhattan Beach will change very little. It will be a, relatively speaking, very expensive place to live.

That being said, I still do very strongly believe prices will continue down for a still substancial time period. My guess is somewhere around 1%-2% per month, on average, for the next 12-24 months.

The few "new, lower strata" buyers that will find themselves able to qualify for a mortgage in this area will be those very few that either -

a. experience a cash windfall of very large proportions, so large as to almost qualify as the same strata that exhists today.

b. were extraordinarily fortunate timing the market - As in, bought low then sold high, not to mention were able to hold onto their equity returns in some very turbulent financial times.

Lastly, a return to a 4.5 to 1 price to income ratio is not likely. At least not for a very long time. The federal government has seen to that. Look for a bottom closer to 6 or 7 to 1, maybe slightly higher.

Re: Holiday Open Forum (12/27- )

bm90266 — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 09:41:01 -0000

Mookie/Lenny, You guys must have really gotten beat up alot in junior high.

Re: Open Forum (12/8- )

bm90266 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:47:54 -0000

Bryn, I have to agree with just about everything in your last post.

Especially the last sentence.

Re: Open Forum (12/8- )

bm90266 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:50:14 -0000

Not trying to beat anyone up. I'm honestly curious as to why, with that stated opinion in hand, a real estate salesperson feels the need to post at all on a blog such as this.

I will admit, however, to going away thinking after reading Bryn's post that it was mostly sales-speak and the same points could have been made in half or less the space used.

Re: Open Forum (12/8- )

bm90266 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:50:52 -0000

So, basically what you're saying is the overall price trend in MB is no longer going downward except, for "pockets of weakness" while "there are still great buys to be had", one "can still catch a bottom.." and "informed observers" believe "the overall market has bottomed and is headed up"? Oh, btw, all said behind the caveat of the "overall economy" gaining stability.

Noted.

BTW, if what you say is accurate, why bother wasting time posting here? Farming?

Just curious.

Re: Open Forum (12/8- )

bm90266 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:06:50 -0000

Micro, macro, metric, median, whatever. One can shave things anyway they'd like. Prices are still moving downward and, based on economic fundamentals, will likely continue to do so for sometime to come.

On the other hand, those expecting MB home prices to move low enough that many people who cannot afford to buy here now will be able to buy here in the future are likely not going to be seeing that happen. Even if prices drop another 20%-25% (definitely not out of the question), higher lending standards along with likely higher interest rates, higher taxes and a continuing to sputter overall economy will keep areas like MB affordable to only a very, very few additional buyers over the already very few that can afford it now.

That's my theory, and it's worth exactly what you paid to read it. Just like most of the banter around here.

Re: MB Market Update for 11/15/09, Sand

bm90266 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:36:39 -0000

Quick tip - The more you push it, the less it appears you have any affiliation at all.

Re: MB Market Update for 11/15/09, Sand

bm90266 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:17:31 -0000

MBPV, Relax. Just some good natured rival ribbing (Stan v Cal). As far as getting back to real estate...I think real estate is taking care of itself. No brain surgery here. Values will continue down for some time to come.

Re: MB Market Update for 11/15/09, Sand

bm90266 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:30:45 -0000

Your dear Stanford? Ah yes, home of the "Gentleman's C", "Acid Tests" and Condoleezza Rice.

Big Game sure was fun, eh?
Cal '84

Re: Open Forum (11/18- )

bm90266 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:04:28 -0000

I'm convinced it's CYA time, and that's exactly what the money changers at GS, MS, JPM and the like are doing as we speak. Listened to Elizabeth Warren do 3 interviews this morning and she, once again, said things are not good and we shouldn't add anything more to our colossal national debt (speaking of TARP) unless it can effect the "real" economy in a positive manner. She even mentioned that housing prices are likely to continue downward, nationally.

Arguing about where home prices are going in Manhattan Beach is really not much of an issue compared to the financial tsunami that is building all around us.

Saw this on CCN.com this morning -

"...NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Here's a new way to think about the U.S. government's epic borrowing: More than half of the $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to build up over the next decade will be interest.

More than half. In fact, $4.8 trillion..."

Give it a read. Higher taxes are most assuredly on their way, and out of guess who's pockets.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/1...

Re: Open Forum (10/26- )

bm90266 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:41:19 -0000

Put me down as believing MB prices will continue to slide for the next 12-18 months. Even then, it could easily be 5, 6,7 years or more from now before anyone buying from 2002 on will see enough price appreciation to even cover transactional sales costs. NTM, we haven't even begun to talk about new taxes and adjusted deductions...

What's an avg $ per sqft these days? What was a like location/house 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 years ago?

Re: Open Forum (9/22- )

bm90266 — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:38:59 -0000

Glad to see some owners getting their homes sold and some re agents getting some work (not kidding). Still, I firmly believe overall prices in MB are trending down (ppsf, like sales) and will continue to do so for some time to come. There is just way too much headwind coming, not too mention the immediate issues at hand. Still, some of the semi-distressed opportunities out there look enticing compared to the recent past ('06-'07 highs). At the same time, I can't find any hard evidence we're near a sustainable bottom. Put me down as thinking we're 18-24 months away, at least, from a pricing position that will allow for at or near GDP equity appreciation in less than 5-10 years.

Re: Fixing The Strand

bm90266 — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:45:20 -0000

Love dogs too (we have 2 spoiled mutts)...but anon9 has some good points.

I love The Strand, but...(caveat - I can't afford it) I wouldn't want to live there. Too much of a fishbowl. Lived there almost 30 years ago (renter, fresh out of college) and the nonstop foot traffic, rude visitors, parking issues and etc. got to my roomies and I after a few months. Once again, take with a grain of salt. The Strand is 3-4 times what is in our sights to buy.

Re: Open Forum (9/8– )

bm90266 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:24:06 -0000

MBH, The enormous mountain of governmental debt will have a large impact on housing prices. If you disagree, so be it. I do agree regarding your "uncharted waters" comment.

To say that anyone "...not seriously looking to buy in this market, you either can't afford it or you aren't a serious buyer." borders on ridiculous. Isn't it possible there are potential buyers that see no compelling reason to buy at this time? Maybe it's just us, but we're happy leasing our property and just as happy with the return on the invested proceeds of our former home. Our landlord has offered a "lease option to buy", lowered our rent and recently upgraded things in our home. We're not timing the market and won't mind missing the absolute bottom one bit. Once again, we'll buy when the numbers look right to us. I just do not believe that will happen for some time to come. If I'm wrong, everybody wins and we'll buy while the market is on it's way up in a sustainable manner.

Re: Open Forum (9/8– )

bm90266 — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:24:09 -0000

BCH, I'd agree with those that believe we are at or near a bottom if...
1. We didn't have Trillions (as in 8-11) in national debt to payback and getting worse all the time (see Health Care).
2. If our state government wasn't billions in the hole, and getting worse.
3. If our county government wasn't hundreds of millions in the hole and getting worse.
4. If all the above wasn't going to pressure our local and schools budgets more and more each year.
5. If taxes weren't going to have to go up, mostly on the backs of the top earners
6. If unemployment wasn't continuing to rise.
7. If many of the same "experts" that called the financial crisis before it happened were not saying things will continue to be fu'd for some time to come (specifically calling for another 25% in re price declines).

All the above said, the Sun will rise daily. MB will remain among many great places to live. Babies will be born and people will continue to buy houses regardless of which direction the market heads. It's just that my homework leads me to think that prices in our area will continue down for the next 12-18 months AND, even if we are near a bottom, any meaningful price increases are waaaaayyyy off in the future. By meaningful, I mean increases at or near GDP growth (or shrinkage), and/or will pay for re transaction fees.

If you must hang "doomer" around my neck, rock on. That doesn't change anything or pay any bills. Once again, debt is our true national/regional/local crisis and it's not going away until we earn it away through producing goods and providing services.