Disqus - Latest Comments for bdodgerf

Re: First post

bdodger — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:38:29 -0000

Re: Website to get rail statistics

bdodger — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 11:55:14 -0000

Nandu with all due respect. I would not come to your site even if you PAID ME $1000/month.
You are nothing but another snake oil salesman MISLEADING OTHERS.

Re: Swinger's ES Update May 19th 2009

bdodger — Sun, 24 May 2009 17:43:47 -0000

Swinger,

I have been following you with great interest since your first post on disqus around the Nov 21 low. I doubt you are being ignored. I think disqus is an inefficent way of gauging the actual level of interest in your ideas. If you start your own blog (which btw is a fairly simple and straight forward process) and post a couple of times a week, there is a high probability that after a month you will have more daily hits than x-trends. I think they were averaging over 10,000 daily hits in their hayday and Slope of hope generates in the 10's of thousands per day. If your analysis continues to be spot on then you will quickly surpass these blogs in terms of daily hits and be able to better gauge if your efforts are being appreciated. Anyway, if you decide not to post in the future, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for the insights you have provided. Best wishes.

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Thu, 21 May 2009 20:15:39 -0000

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Thu, 21 May 2009 20:14:07 -0000

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Thu, 21 May 2009 18:40:52 -0000

Hello MiniReaper...did you implement the sell in in May strategy and take your hundreds of percent gain for the year?...too busy counting your coin to post these days, I guess. lol Anyway, when you do get back in town, could you let me know if you are hedging your dollar based assets. What camp are you in, the one that calls for inflation before deflation or deflation then inflation? It looks like they are doing the same tricks they turned in 2002 to get us out of that recession...destroy the dollar by any means necessary.

Re: Big drops versus small drops

bdodger — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:08:48 -0000

Just read through your comments today. Congrats on the successful day. Hope you are successful in your mission to help Lawrence become profitable. Just a word of caution to you though, if and when you are successfull, please don't become like one of those arrogant guru's we all know and talk about. Hope you will stay humble and continue to help others protect capital.

Re:

bdodger — Fri, 15 May 2009 18:59:08 -0000

Yes he was banned, I have no idea for what. Read below Master Shake's comments from last week:

"05/06/2009 07:15 PM
in Are We There, Yet? - Investment Blog at TheDOCument.com on The DOCument
Tim banned me from his site. I'm forced to blabber here. ;-)"

You know Ashok and Benji were banned also. It seems anyone who even slightely disagrees with the host gets banned these days. Last year Slope was the place to be, not anymore though. I think your blog will be great once it becomes a finished product. Best wishes and hope it turns out great for you.

Re:

bdodger — Wed, 13 May 2009 20:28:46 -0000

Like your blog moo, hope you keep posting here instead of Slope as most of the good posters like Master Shake have been banned.

What do you see that indicates gold will go over $1000 and ES will make a higher high? Earlier this year in the market swoon heading into March we saw the opposite where gold was rising to 1K and the ES was making a low. Are investors now fearing the enormous money printing effort will spark inflation. Is this an irrational fear givin that we are still in a deflationary environment? Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Re: Commitment of Traders 05/05/2009

bdodger — Wed, 13 May 2009 16:59:35 -0000

Hey King,

Thought you retired from blogging...but glad to have you back.

Just curious...when you worked on the prop desk, did you witness any of this manipulation you talk about "someone was buying and selling to keep these stocks high". For example a large trader who may control a significant percentage of a particular stock buying and selling the same stock in two different prime brokerage accounts to manipulate the price either up or down. Imo this could be done when as you state volume is low "volume that was traded daily on some days in the past 2 weeks only there is to say is BULLSHIT". I have always wondered how pervasive this type of manipulation is in the securities business. Could you give us further insight into this matter.

Re: Results of the vote

bdodger — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:17:38 -0000

"Free speech is welcome here"

That is why you have the BEST FINANCIAL BLOG out there. Better then x-trends, Timmy Knight, and whatever else.

You let people say what they want to say and what they have to say. You even allow people to bash you the host and don't take it personally.

I salute you Lawrence and wish you the best of success, in all your endeavors.

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:06:50 -0000

MiniReaper,

Your posts are great. I wait eagerly in anticipation for your posts. lol.

That post from a week ago right there, kept my itchy trigger finger from initiating intermediate term shorts on the market. Now, I will initiate shorts around the 200 ema, if we get there. But I am not expecting much more downside than the 50ema. Looks like they have built a lot of support under this thing and it will take a few months to roll over.

Btw, your natgas idea came one day before the major swing low. Immpecable timing, my friend. Wish you well.

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Thu, 07 May 2009 17:48:02 -0000

Blackmamba,

I like the way you analyze the market and market participants. What indicators are you looking at that would signify buying exhaustion or a blow off top?

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:57:05 -0000

Lawrence, my main man, how are you?

Your blog is looking better and better every time I come by.

I nearly laughed my head off yesterday though, when I saw the following comment you made asking Atillia about his PEE index.

"Yesterday 07:43 PM Lawrence wrote:
Hi Atilla, what would cause you to re-consider your bearish point-of-view? Is it a SPX level, does the price action have to "look" a certain way, etc.?

Can you give us an update on the new P-index? I assume we broke out above the previous high. You gave the formula for the old P-index and it looks like it has made a new high this week."

LMAO Lawrence, I could not believe what my eyes were seeing when you asked him about the Pee index. I DON'T THINK ATILLIA WILL MENTION THE PEE INDEX EVER AGAIN IN HIS LIFE.

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:49:52 -0000

I think Kingshort said he was retiring from the Blog world in May 2009.

Re: Futures just dumped

bdodger — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:42:50 -0000

You are absolutely right about Kass. He and Cramer are two of the top snake oil salesmen out there. Been following Kass and his ALL IN bullshit calls for years.

Last June-July he was heavy long Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank America. He even stated one day that Meredith Whitney didn't know what she was talking about. That the numbers she was using to calculate loan losses were not as good as "his numbers" and that she worked under him earlier in her career, so he knew better.

He is a serial top and bottom caller. Avoid this guy like the plague.

Re: More Confused Than Ever

bdodger — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:12:33 -0000

Very eloquently stated.

Re: Results of the vote

bdodger — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:13:57 -0000

Going through your comments over the last few weeks, some excellent stuff in there. Especially this from mid april:

04/16/2009 04:24 PM

in Commercial Real Estate - Starting To Crack? on Lawrence's Market Blog
"rape the bears with a furious run up", nice way of putting it. The bears are HOPING citi and GE crap overnight. GOOG already higher. Everybody talks about retail is super-bullish, but show me 1 blog who is saying we run straight above 900 without 40-50 pt break. EVERYBODY is looking for a top to this rally and this rally has already met/exceeded Run of the mill bear market rallies.

See this: http://www.businessinsider.......

79 of 80 quant funds interviewed are net short S&P from March 6th. Index has moved 30% higher. While a bear would say the smart money is short the market, the contrarian would see natural bids if prices go higher (and can unload then). These quants are usually trend following machines which will unwind bets beyond certain threshold levels (if the bet continues to go awry). They aint Buffet or Roubini to hold to their thesis for the 'long term'.

Re: Results of the vote

bdodger — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:47:57 -0000

This a comment from X-trends blog today. I am reposting it because it will be erased from there for sure. So hilarious. LMAO.

jane_colder Today 02:46 PM
where is Atilla? I tell you where Atilla is?

he is calculating the exact open of the tomorrow to the penny using his Pee Factor.

you see, it is exactly that kind of arrogance that the market has to cure before a turn. He had a good trend, he made good calls, he got all Peed Up with his own Pee Index, and now the market is showing him theother side of the Pee Index

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/02/realitive_strength.htm

bdodger — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:17:59 -0000

I only see them losing control over the long end if we see a run on the dollar and/or we see a rise in inflation expectations. Do you see any other ways?

Re: The Citi Market Barometer

bdodger — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:43:51 -0000

Juice, good discussion here, hope others join in. Gives us much to think about so lets keep it going, in the coming days.

I don't believe you to be right or wrong about how you think they will wind down the balance sheet. But at the moment your scenario doesn't make sense to me. I have already outlined why in previous comments.

As to when and how I think the balance sheet will be wound down, this is something that needs further contemplation on my part. Hope you keep posting your thoughts on this critical issue.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/18/game_plan.htm

bdodger — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:23:07 -0000

Short-term rates are controlled by the FED. Long-term rates are out of their control that is why they have embarked on the QE campaign, to keep a lid on these rates. Are you saying the FED will raise short term rates? This is highly unlikely, until we see signs of real recovery. However, I agree with your premise about a currency collapse. Here is the scenario I envision for a possible collapse:

There will be a time within the next 12-18 months when the threat of inflation will emerge. It will not be a real threat or long lasting, but it could cause a mini-panic. Since long-term Treasury Rates have already been pushed down to historically low levels, any mild increase in inflation expectations would send yields soaring. Once treasuries begin selling off in a panic the USD would collapse in unison, as would all dollar based assets. One measure of stock valuations is in term of 10 year treasury yields, if they double from here to say 6-7%, stocks would become highly overvalued. Would this lead to 400-500 S&P and the ultimate bear market bottom, maybe maybe not. But it would certainly produce a new low. The ultimate bottom 400-500 may come later when we see massive deflation.

Is this similar to what you see happening? Feel free to poke holes in anything I have stated.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/18/game_plan.htm

bdodger — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 14:04:08 -0000

You have mentioned "currency collapse" many times in your comments. Could you outline the scenario in which you see this taking place.

Re: The Citi Market Barometer

bdodger — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:36:22 -0000

So you are saying that if the Fed indicates in the next meeting "their support in the marketplace is no longer needed" by showing balance sheet shrinkage, that equities will sell off and there will be a flight to safety into bonds. I guess you reckon yields would be pushed down and the Fed would unload their stuff into the subsequent bond rally.

To me this doesn't make any sense. So far the Fed has telegraphed every move they have made. Every institution trading credit knew the QE announcement was just a matter of when, not if. Hell, talk about telegraphed, the BOE did it a month before the FED. I know a few institutional credit guys who were buying heavy into long term treasuries before the announcement and unloading into the historic bond rally after. Right now the evidence suggests that every central bank, government, and financial institition in the world have no other objective then to avoid a further deflationary scenario at all costs.

Re: Engineering the Market: Could this be a running triangle?

bdodger — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 11:29:58 -0000

...