Disqus - Friends of ansgarjohn

Re: 02011-02787 (776 years): The spirit of the current Constitution of the United States will not be in force continuously for 1000 years. At some point at or before its millennium, it will have been s...

Jason_Galbraith — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:52:33 -0000

One might argue this bet was won before it was made. The 18th Amendment was out of line with the rest of the Constitution most obviously.

Re: Long Bets - Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.

Jason_Galbraith — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:57:34 -0000

I predict we'll hit 8 billion in the 2020's.

Re: Long Bets - By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.

Jason_Galbraith — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 17:00:54 -0000

What is ether physics?

Re: Long Bets - By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 11:19:57 -0000

If I were able to vote, I would side with the predictor. Indeed, the percentage of Americans who by 2040 can expect to reach 100, may considerably exceed 40 as some futurists (notably Ray Kurzweil) believe that aging will be cured in the next few decades.

Re: Long Bets - A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 07 Jan 2014 15:55:07 -0000

Your essay is very interesting. I wonder if you feel the recent set of negotiations with Iran actually stem from the Obama administration's awareness that Iran is already a nuclear power? I also wonder why you have never made a prediction on geopolitics yourself if you're so sure of everything?

Re:

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 17:18:50 -0000

I agree the resolution of the Fermi Paradox is maybe the most interesting question related to the study of our galaxy, but what makes you think that turning into a black hole represents evolution? A black hole is the opposite of life.

Re: 02011-02021 (10 years): A commercial airliner will be destroyed by terrorists hacking the software of either the aircraft or an external system such as air traffic control. - Long Bets

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 17:24:32 -0000

This may indeed have already happened to the Malaysian plane no one can find.

Re: Long Bets - Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on...

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 12 Jan 2017 17:33:15 -0000

Interesting question: did Buffett know we were heading into a bear market when he made this bet?

Re: PredictIt | Who will be Senate-confirmed FBI Director on June 30, 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 10 May 2017 13:36:24 -0000

Where's Devin Nunes when you need him?

Re: PredictIt | Will Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson run for president in 2020?

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 11 May 2017 17:00:41 -0000

Isn't he a Republican? Things would have to get PRETTY BAD for him to primary Trump.

Re: PredictIt | Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 18 May 2017 15:13:11 -0000

I think it is possible for Trump to become so unpopular that the suicidal play for Republicans is NOT impeaching him.

Re: PredictIt | Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 18 May 2017 15:14:14 -0000

Did this really used to be at 33?

Re: PredictIt | Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 18 May 2017 15:16:35 -0000

If there were video of Trump eating their constituents' babies, the House Republican leadership would still be loyal to Trump.

Re: PredictIt | Who will be Senate-confirmed FBI Director on June 30, 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 18 May 2017 15:23:55 -0000

Auuugh, we die. Glad I only put $2 into this market.

Re: PredictIt | Who will be Senate-confirmed FBI Director on June 30, 2017?

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 23 May 2017 12:26:14 -0000

Can you buy shares in "vacant"?

Re: PredictIt | Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 20 Jun 2017 15:57:08 -0000

Harris/Heinrich is definitely better than Warren/Becerra because minority turnout will only reach Obama levels if a minority is at the top of the ticket. Failing that, Trump wins re-election.

Re: PredictIt | Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 20 Jun 2017 15:59:38 -0000

Booker would turn out the most voters, I think.

Re: PredictIt | Will Supreme Court agree by year-end to hear a case on Trump's "travel ban"?

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 28 Jun 2017 17:20:01 -0000

How the f____ is this still a market? They already agreed to hear it.

Re: 02017-02051 (34 years): Emulating Achilles: a White Man Will Start World War By 02051 -OR- The Great White Man Theory of History - Long Bets

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 13 Jul 2017 12:01:10 -0000

Hmm. You state that all of Britain and America's great political leaders have been white men. What is your opinion of President Obama?

Re: 02017-02051 (34 years): Emulating Achilles: a White Man Will Start World War By 02051 -OR- The Great White Man Theory of History - Long Bets

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 13 Jul 2017 12:02:22 -0000

For that matter, what is your opinion of Margaret Thatcher?

Re: Long Bets - Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.

Jason_Galbraith — Thu, 13 Jul 2017 12:50:55 -0000

Have issued a challenge and will try to come up with the money if Brand accepts mine.

Re: PredictIt | Will Jeff Sessions be Attorney General on September 30?

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 26 Jul 2017 17:10:44 -0000

A slightly more interesting market would invite us to guess who WILL be the AG on 8/31. My bet is on Jay Sekulow.

Re: PredictIt | When will the debt limit be raised?

Jason_Galbraith — Tue, 01 Aug 2017 13:35:57 -0000

Betting on default is the ultimate Big Short.

Re: PredictIt | Which of the 24 people on Trump’s Cabinet list will leave first?

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 02 Aug 2017 13:59:25 -0000

This is ridiculous. PredictIt should award the money to those who bet on Priebus to leave first. Kelly just went from one government job to another.

Re: PredictIt | Which of the 24 people on Trump’s Cabinet list will leave first?

Jason_Galbraith — Wed, 16 Aug 2017 12:17:06 -0000

If Kelly leaves TWO DIFFERENT jobs within the administration (entirely possible as a result of his humiliation yesterday) the bet should be resolved in favor of those who bet on him.