Disqus - Latest Comments for ansgarjohn

Re: “By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months.”

ansgarjohn — Mon, 23 Sep 2024 17:31:57 -0000

This is a great bet! I side with Burchill.

Re: An Open Letter to the President of Stanford, Jonathan Levin: Don’t Censor Drs. Scott Atlas, John Ioannidis, Sunetra Gupta, Marty Marky, Monica Gandhi, Jay Bhattacharya, and Vinay Prasad. Amplify ...

ansgarjohn — Sat, 07 Sep 2024 14:18:10 -0000

The Great Barrington Declaration was not discussed at all in Dutch media. There was censorship.

Re: “Berkshire Hathaway's share price CAGR will outperform the S&P 500 CAGR performance over the next 20 years. ”

ansgarjohn — Mon, 13 May 2024 09:06:40 -0000

Ad 2> May 2024: Berkshire after Buffett: New hints from the shareholders meeting

Last weekend's Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, featuring CEO-designate Greg Abel sitting by Warren Buffett's side, helped bring the company's after-Buffett future into somewhat sharper focus.

Reuters wrote Abel "is expected to preserve the culture at the behemoth even if he does not match the star power of his legendary boss."

It cited expectations among investors and analysts that Buffett's successor will make long-term investments and won't pay dividends to shareholders.

And in what was something of a surprise, Buffett told shareholders that he expects Abel will have ultimate responsibility for both acquisitions and the company's equity portfolio. "I would leave the capital allocation to Greg, and he understands business extremely well. If you understand business, you'll understand common stocks."

There had been speculation that portfolio managers Ted Weschler and Todd Combs would make stock decisions for Berkshire after Buffett.

They still may wind up with day-to-day responsibility, but under Abel's supervision.

Re: “A GMST annual average anomaly value above the 1850-1899 baseline will be published in the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature series as 2.0C or higher on or before the 2037 value (published in 2038...

ansgarjohn — Wed, 17 Jan 2024 03:30:57 -0000

Great bet!

Re: “Infant mortality will decrease and healthy lifespan increase worldwide by WHO statistics no matter how much climate change occurs between October 2023 and 31 October 2038.”

ansgarjohn — Fri, 29 Dec 2023 17:03:08 -0000

I agree with you, more warmth and CO2 is in general beneficial for life on Earth.

Re: “By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months.”

ansgarjohn — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 18:51:12 -0000

Great bet!

Re: Long Bets - In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.

ansgarjohn — Mon, 27 Nov 2023 19:44:18 -0000

Who won?

Re: “By 2048 (25 years from now), consumers in the US will not have the option to purchase a fully self-driving car lacking a steering wheel, yet possessing the equivalent transportation capabilities o...

ansgarjohn — Wed, 25 Oct 2023 12:56:19 -0000

Challenge the bet!

Re: “A GMST annual average anomaly value above the 1850-1899 baseline will be published in the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature series as 2.0C or higher on or before the 2037 value (published in 2038...

ansgarjohn — Mon, 25 Sep 2023 06:57:09 -0000

Great bet. The trend and an extrapolation can be found here https://cds.climate.coperni... (in 2023).

Re: “by 2035 there will be at least one public protest of more than 100 people in a G7 county against the switching off of a machine or software program on the grounds that it is sentient and has a rig...

ansgarjohn — Fri, 16 Jun 2023 10:54:31 -0000

A sort of "birds aren't real" parody protest is not included in my challenge. If doubtful William Hanbury wins.

Re: “Over the five years leading up to 2029, the US will use less copper than it did over the five years leading up to 2019, and the material will be more affordable to the world’s average person over ...

ansgarjohn — Wed, 17 May 2023 18:53:52 -0000

Materials that require significant capacity growth are: For mining: nickel, lithium, graphite and copper. For refining: nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, battery grade iron and manganese. Challenged.

Re: “In Winter 2030 Germany will have overcome the COVID pandemic. Excess mortality will be below pre-pandemic levels. Life expectancy for the elderly will be higher and entry restrictions for bars and...

ansgarjohn — Wed, 17 May 2023 18:46:30 -0000

You win!

Re: “In 5 years, a bitcoin will be worth less than $100US.”

ansgarjohn — Sat, 04 Mar 2023 12:24:04 -0000

I would like to challenge this bet Boran.

Re: “Tesla will be the first company with 1 million vehicles that are capable of SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States, with human-level safety or better, and...

ansgarjohn — Wed, 26 Oct 2022 07:31:04 -0000

Agreed.

Re: “I predict that, no later than 11:59 PM Mountain Time, 31 December, 2050, the festival known as the Calgary Stampede will have ceased to exist.”

ansgarjohn — Tue, 25 Oct 2022 18:17:15 -0000

"or changed into a new festival unrelated to its current form." That might be difficult to judge.

Re: “The SETI Institute will not announce the detection of a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization (that is, a signal that is unambiguously non-natural and does not originate from Earth) within ...

ansgarjohn — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 11:29:41 -0000

I would like to take this bet, if you include "c) Articles in reputable publications (scientific, news media, etc) announce the detection of the signal and characterize it as "first contact" or "a signal from ET," etc. " through possible other means than a (radio) signal. Such as a possible excavation of a monolith, a visit by a spaceship, etc.

Re: Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months

ansgarjohn — Thu, 02 Apr 2020 06:24:38 -0000

The output seems similiar to what Michael Levitt has observed. Here Netherland (growth rate slowing by 1% per day is the guesstimate) https://sinaas.blogspot.com...

Re: “Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.”

ansgarjohn — Tue, 21 Jan 2020 05:53:52 -0000

Great bet! I believe there will still be sheep for wool that need to be slaughtered.
This part of the bet 'This includes
processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of
another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. ' So I predict a win for Kaufman.

Re: Skelter voor op de snelweg

ansgarjohn — Sun, 08 Sep 2019 08:02:57 -0000

Ja er rijden ook al Twike 3s op de snelweg en autobahn.

Re: “Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.”

ansgarjohn — Fri, 17 May 2019 19:04:27 -0000

Other countries?

Re: “Berkshire Hathaway's share price CAGR will outperform the S&P 500 CAGR performance over the next 20 years. ”

ansgarjohn — Fri, 17 May 2019 18:37:13 -0000

Thank you Zach for the prediction. We are each betting $204 the current price of a Berkshire Hathaway B share.

Re: 02012-02017 (5 years): The United States will not experience hyperinflation (defined by 3 consecutive months of 6% Month over Month inflation according to the Billion Prices Project measurement of ...

ansgarjohn — Fri, 17 May 2019 08:46:51 -0000

Good prediction.

Re: Elon Musk releases teaser image of Tesla’s ‘cyberpunk’ electric pickup truck

ansgarjohn — Sat, 16 Mar 2019 00:35:59 -0000

Not bad!

Re: “Berkshire Hathaway's share price CAGR will outperform the S&P 500 CAGR performance over the next 20 years. ”

ansgarjohn — Mon, 25 Feb 2019 06:02:56 -0000

Buffett says book value is irrelevant.

Re: Why Warren Buffett would never invest in Steinhoff (even if Heston Blumenthal might)

ansgarjohn — Mon, 16 Apr 2018 13:44:46 -0000

Good points to ponder now in 2018 after Steinhoff's shares have cratered. Well done.