Disqus - Latest Comments for andrew_null

Re: Why Android desperately needs a billion dollar success story: The best new apps are all going iPhone-first

Andrew Chen — Thu, 28 Aug 2014 13:34:14 -0000

Whatsapp was never Android-exclusive, as you know. They were popular on Android, validating it's an important platform, but I think the lesson startups take out of that is "you eventually have to be on both platforms" rather than convincing them to be Android-first/Android-exclusive.

Re: Contingent Investment Commitments And The Quest For Lead Investors

Andrew Chen — Wed, 12 Feb 2014 20:11:12 -0000

It's comments like this that made me disable commenting from my blog.

Re: The death of RSS in a single graph

Andrew Chen — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:40:52 -0000

Seth,
thanks for stopping by and weighing in.

I certainly agree that a world in which we all subscribe to 100s of email newsletters doesn't make sense. I certainly subscribe to more than 100 RSS feeds in GReader and don't plan to recreate the same in my email inbox :) And yes, diversity in media is good.

Anyway, perhaps the net of this is that I'll keep RSS around but promote email as the primary way to stay in touch. I want to see how the GReader shutdown plays out, and if another product (perhaps Feedly, perhaps Digg's new product) will step in to fill the gap. I don't plan to shut down the RSS app for a little while, at least until that all plays out.

PS. I'll be sure to throw on some Miles later this evening in your honor :)

Re: Why developers are leaving the Facebook platform

Andrew Chen — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 20:38:25 -0000

Thanks for commenting and adding your perspective, Doug- appreciate it.

Re: Growth Hackers Conference, upcoming May 3rd, with 30% off discount code

Andrew Chen — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 21:23:55 -0000

As I understand it, this year's conference will be all presos and no panels.

Re: Growth Hackers Conference, upcoming May 3rd, with 30% off discount code

Andrew Chen — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 17:25:19 -0000

It'll be a mix, but for B2B/enterprise probably more SaaS oriented.

Re: How this blog grows: Evergreen content, Social whales, and “Don’t get bored”

Andrew Chen — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 13:40:15 -0000

I don't find the level of engagement on G+ very high. Personally I just focus on Twitter, for the "power law" reasons I mention above.

Re: How this blog grows: Evergreen content, Social whales, and “Don’t get bored”

Andrew Chen — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:22:42 -0000

I used to be pretty consistent about submitting my stuff to Hacker News, but over time I've found it's pretty hit or miss. So if other people submit it, or if it's a piece i'm particularly proud of, I'll try and do something with that. But in general I'm just focused on growing my twitter following since it's most consistent and feels like something I can have real control of.

Re: Why are we so bad at predicting startup success?

Andrew Chen — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 21:47:42 -0000

Well said. I haven't fully integrated the hedgehog/fox idea with the 10,000 expert practice framework- in some ways they are opposed to each other, but I think your comment captures the tradeoff.

Re: Why are we so bad at predicting startup success?

Andrew Chen — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:14:00 -0000

Yeah, my critique is more around the POV of press/investors/advisors looking across the entire field of startups and being sucky at predicting their outcome due to oversimplification.
I suppose it's more aligned to an entrepreneur looking at a single idea though, in that case the myopia is more likely to be unique and differentiated :) So in that case Thiel's quote makes a ton of sense.

Re: Why are we so bad at predicting startup success?

Andrew Chen — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:09:05 -0000

Patrick, yes, it's been forever since we last talked. I did actually read that article when it first came out and really liked it. I think Poker is a nice analogy because at the heart of it, there's a bunch of randomness. Plus a bunch of humans. So if you went with a fixed strategy that said "always do X and then Y" over time you wouldn't be able to win- there's a lot of situational adjustment involved. But like any complicated stochastic thing, people are always looking for the "can't lose strategy" :)

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:54:39 -0000

Yes, but will millions of people are ready to pay $500 to play with a Sifteo-integrated Google Glass mechanism? I get that you'll say that it's just one use case, but that's my whole point- what's the major use case? With the iPhone it's clear. It's in the name. It's a phone. And RIM/Palm/etc also proved that people cared about messaging, calendars, contacts, etc. So the iPhone value prop was clear. What's the Glass value prop?

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:52:58 -0000

Yeah, if they can get the passive stuff working well, so that you don't need too much input, that would help a lot. That said, based on my experience using Google Now, it seems like it's not enough yet.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:50:11 -0000

Not true, the iPhone 1 was a huge commercial success from the get go. It sold 1 million units in the first 3 months. The iPad v1 was a commercial success too, as was the Kindle. My point is that Google Glass isn't in this category of products - it's in with the Newton, the Segway, and products like that.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 21:20:49 -0000

I think this is just another example of how people get excited about Google Glass without actually talking about any of the killer use cases or why it's worth the $1500 (or $500 or whatever price it'll be). The answer is always, "it'll be awesome! You just wait! People will find out ways to use it!"

Reminds me of Google Wave.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 21:17:58 -0000

Well, it's good they asked those questions about tablets, and it turns out there are good answers in the case of tablets. They're light, you can read them in bed. They are better on the sofa. More social since there isn't a big computer screen between you and others in a meeting. Etc., etc. Still looking for those answers on Google Glass.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 21:15:57 -0000

My whole point is that the Newton was ahead of its time (and thus, a commercial failure). Glass is revolutionary but also I'm leaning towards commercial failure.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 21:06:56 -0000

This is a thoughtful and well-constructed comment, but it's a reminder on how easy it is to read a blog post but totally miss the point of it.

My whole point is that v1 will suck, but the subsequent versions could be a lot better. But more importantly, v1 will suck. I actually write sentences and sentences about how I think the category is interesting, and even the use of the Newton metaphor is to say that the v1 sucked, but eventually the iPad came.

The funny about people who are crazy optimistic about the Glass is that whatever you say about it, they take as a critique against the future of all wearable computing for all time. No, sir, I'm just talking about Glass v1 sucking when they release it this year or next.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 15:32:03 -0000

Yes, and I hope the category of wearable computing works out. But the point of my article is that I'm skeptical that v1 will be a success for exactly the reasons why you're saying- the guys that created the first popular computers (Commodore, MITS, Amiga, etc.) didn't become the ones to really nail it and make the category a huge success. It was later folks who launched refined versions that make it work. In the same way, I think Glass v1 will be a dud but maybe 5 years from now, someone else will do something interesting. Maybe that someone else will be Google if they stick to it.

Re: I’m a Google Glass skeptic and think it’ll be the next Apple Newton

Andrew Chen — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 13:52:48 -0000

Thanks, fixed.

Re: Rational Growth (PDF): An intro to growing user signups via data and analytical thinking

Andrew Chen — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 21:40:57 -0000

You're right that it's a tradeoff. It's easy to get more signups, but at the expense of quality.

In general I've always erred over to the side of signups, just because once you have a signup you have various ways to notify them to get them back. Whereas if you don't sign them up at all, then you will never have a channel to get them back.

Worst case, you can think of it as shifting the problem later in the funnel- you increase some top-line metrics but then you have to focus more on activating those lower quality users. I'd personally rather take that problem, but combined with higher signups, than to have lower signups overall.

Re: Why it’s hard to evaluate new social products

Andrew Chen — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 15:13:10 -0000

Yes, and the weird part of starting with a niche that's not techies is that then, naturally, the techies don't get it :)

Re: Why it’s hard to evaluate new social products

Andrew Chen — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 15:12:21 -0000

Seems like you're trying to use an example of a failed product to argue the point it'd be obvious it'd be successful?

(Not convinced that the Google "bear hug" was the problem- after all, after its purchase, YouTube is much bigger and better than its ever been, with more revenue. Jaiku just failed, and its network wasn't strong enough to keep it going.)

Re: Confessions of a Startup Seagull

Andrew Chen — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 22:10:21 -0000

The folks on HN are often the worst. Maybe TC is another order of magnitude though.

Re: Confessions of a Startup Seagull

Andrew Chen — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 16:36:41 -0000

re: seagulls, fuck 'em. As they say, race your own race.