Disqus - Latest Comments for amcafee

Re: “The Relentless Pace of Automation”

Andrew McAfee — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 14:52:00 -0000

I had an interesting experience a little while ago that's relevant to this article and discussion. I'll recount it here without further commentary.

A little while back I was at a small gathering that included many of the rockstars of AI and machine learning. I gave a short talk to the group relaying how mainstream economists have thought about the effects that tech progress has on jobs and wages. The reason that we have what's labelled a "Luddite fallacy" is that for most of the 200+ years of the Industrial Era, tech progress has created many more jobs than it's destroyed overall, and steadily lifted wages for people at all levels of skill and education.

I also showed evidence, though, that job and especially wage growth have slowed down recently in the rich world, and that the middle class in industrial countries has been getting hollowed out.

So the question is, Is this time finally different? Will the digital technologies of today and tomorrow have a different effect on jobs and wages? I concluded by stating what I believe, which is that it's a distinct possibility -- one we should take seriously -- but that no one knows for sure.

The reaction to my talk was fascinating to me.

Several times during the rest of the conference an AI rockstar came up to me during a break and essentially said "I think you're underestimating what's going on. This time IS different, and we'd better get ready."

Re: When Using Your Smartphone Can Be the Best Thing for Your Mental Health

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 13:45:04 -0000

Anna, thank you for your comment - it's very insightful and helpful.

Re: Don’t Let Incumbents Hold Back the Future

Andrew McAfee — Mon, 28 Apr 2014 10:55:48 -0000

Séverin, the first sentence of my post makes clear that the original decision by the Council of State was reversed, and links to a story about the reversal.

Re: In Memoriam: Chris Argyris

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 19 Nov 2013 15:46:33 -0000

Yes, sad news. He was a truly original, clear, and deep thinker.

Re: OK, This is Weird…

Andrew McAfee — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:42:08 -0000

Sam, thanks for taking the time to write. Shared photo streams aren't the culprit, though. I haven't enabled them at all, on any device.

Re: Marissa Mayer, meet Andrew McAfee

Andrew McAfee — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:12:49 -0000

Thanks for the professional matchmaking, Ron! ;)

Re: Grappling With Raymond Chandler - Ta-Nehisi Coates - The Atlantic

Andrew McAfee — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 17:58:48 -0000

I say put down The Big Sleep and pick up The Long Goodbye. It's not perfect -- it wanders in places and gets weirdly complicated at the end -- but it's amazing. I read it every couple of years just to have Philip Marlowe in my head. He's trying to make a living, be less lonely, and live according to some principles. He's a deep cynic but not a nihilist, and Chandler does a great job of walking that fine line.

He also works wonders with character, detail, individual scenes, and Marlowe's world-weary commentary. Chandler thought it was his best book, and I agree.

Re: How divergence in labor productivity is shaping the future of work

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 20:09:22 -0000

Thanks, Ross. Much appreciated.

Re: How divergence in labor productivity is shaping the future of work

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 19:35:07 -0000

Ross, you got the first chart above from my blog: http://andrewmcafee.org/201...

A link or citation to the source is minimum professional standard here.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Not Just for the US

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 11 Sep 2012 23:36:15 -0000

Nick, thanks for weighing in. You ask a good question, especially because the BLS report I (and apparently Summers) relied on for the Chinese manufacturing employment stats is careful to point out that much data from that country is spotty, unreliable, and pretty opaque. So the phenomenon you describe could absolutely be taking place.

I'm with you, though. I doubt that even if it's taking place it's a big enough deal to sway the overall story, which is one of rampant automation and productivity growth.

Re: Boston's Uber Ruling a Triumph of the Future Over the Past

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 14:11:03 -0000

Chris, my point is that Uber is not a taxi service; it's a town car service. And the other town car services I've used in Boston often charge based on time, and can easily OVERcharge me based on time; after all, their clocks and servers are not verified and sealed by the DOS. Despite this fact, they're allowed to operate and they work pretty well. So I don't get why Uber should be subject to more and different regulatory scrutiny, simply because they charge differently (distance vs. time; GPS vs. clock). This seems like a clear example of regulatory overreach, and I'm glad it was overturned.
I'm not opposed to regulation. But I am opposed to regulators stifling innovation for no good reason.

Re: The New Era of US Manufacturing: Good News and Bad News

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 21:53:06 -0000

delete`

Re: Will Capitalism and Democracy Soon Be Passé?

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:48:27 -0000

Pilar, I don't censor non-spam comments. I just didn't approve your earlier one (and some others) very quickly.

Re: Real Insights about Artificial Intelligence

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 08 May 2012 15:05:29 -0000

Jed, thanks for catching the typo. My follow-up post dives into the 'category error' in some more detail:

http://andrewmcafee.org/201...

Re: Real Insights about Artificial Intelligence

Andrew McAfee — Mon, 07 May 2012 12:19:02 -0000

Steve, I made no such claim. I said only that "MIT is home to... many of the top AI researchers"

Re: A Data Scientist You’ve Never Heard of Is Now the Master of Your Domain

Andrew McAfee — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 13:30:53 -0000

The tools for dealing with data silos are getting better - this is what Hadoop and Cloudera are all about -- but org design challenges remain, and are serious. Tom Davenport is investigating this issue, and I look forward to hearing what he has to say about it.

Re: A Data Scientist You’ve Never Heard of Is Now the Master of Your Domain

Andrew McAfee — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 13:27:46 -0000

Which is why I stressed in my post that one of the pillars of big data is "Advances in the discipline of machine learning, which is just about what it sounds like. We’ve gotten a lot smarter about teaching machines how to get smarter at tasks ranging from driving cars to playing Jeopardy! to detecting fraud to predicting bodily injury insurance claims."

Re: A Data Scientist You’ve Never Heard of Is Now the Master of Your Domain

Andrew McAfee — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 13:26:47 -0000

It's a good question. Successful data scientists are interviewed at the Kaggle blog, and they often talk about how motivating it was to be in competition - to see someone else doing better than them, then try to catch and surpass them.
And when I read about the methods they're employing, it's often like they're speaking a foreign language. The tools and approaches are pretty new, and pretty exciting.

Re: Managerial Intuition Is a Harmful Myth

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:37:25 -0000

Corey, you're right - thanks for the correction! - APM

Re: Managerial Intuition Is a Harmful Myth

Andrew McAfee — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:16:21 -0000

We should listen to Kahneman because his findings are not based on his intuition. They're based on decades of rock-solid research.

Re: Recent Trends in Labor Intensity. Or, the History (and Future?) of Steady Work in the US

Andrew McAfee — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:22:25 -0000

Andrew, I just used Excel to make the graph, but I tweaked the default settings a lot and spent a fair bit of time on it. I really hate ugly graphs...

Re: Adjustably Loud and Surprisingly Free

Andrew McAfee — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 21:46:19 -0000

The question of 'sharing the wealth' becomes really interesting if the all-purpose androids become reality (not that I expect this to happen any time soon). If people don't have jobs it's hard for them to pay for things, but at the same time if the androids are doing all the work prices would be extremely low.

Re: Don’t Just Read Freakonomics. DO Freakonomics!

Andrew McAfee — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 16:12:13 -0000

Praveen, our doctoral programs are full-time and on-campus, so there's no way to do them remotely. Admitted doctoral students get financial support for tuition and a stipend if they're research or teaching assistants.

Re: Don’t Just Read Freakonomics. DO Freakonomics!

Andrew McAfee — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 16:10:59 -0000

Check out Lynn Wu's "Social Network Effects on Performance and Layoffs: Evidence From the Adoption of a Social Networking Tool"

Re: Don’t Just Read Freakonomics. DO Freakonomics!

Andrew McAfee — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 16:09:20 -0000

Marie, we do often work with post-docs, but the application process is not as formal and regular. If you're interested, send me an email and let me know what your expertise and background is.