Disqus - Latest Comments for aac74

Re: Blain’s Morning Porridge, Dec 17 2020: Lords of Misrule

aac74 — Thu, 17 Dec 2020 16:34:54 -0000

Try https://uphold.com/
for a faster and cheaper bitcoin experience.

Re: Blain’s Morning Porridge, Dec 17 2020: Lords of Misrule

aac74 — Thu, 17 Dec 2020 16:26:32 -0000

You want money 'backed by government' ??? Aren't there some lessons from history there?

You seem to assume that Bitcoin is only popular because banks and credit card companies are so bad and once central bank digital fiat does away with them everyone will stop saving in bitcoin and go back to saving in fiat?

If anything the moment the government stimulus hits your digital wallet it will get converted into bitcoin, especially as DeFi will pay a yield on crypto.

Re: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

aac74 — Tue, 31 Jul 2018 07:47:03 -0000

I think it will go up again for seven years, this is what history says about bank lending. Governments want banks to lend and will do anything QE, ZIRP etc to make it happen. Banks want to lend because that is how they make money. UK and US banks just haven't made enough bad loans yet, Australian and Canadian banks have. Thus you will have a massive credit crunch in Australian and Canadian but not in the UK and US. In the mid cycle recession property is the 'one bright spot' as banks shift their lending in that direction.

Re: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

aac74 — Mon, 30 Jul 2018 20:23:06 -0000

yes inflation is elevated, just like the early 80s and late 90s before the mid-cycle recession. Shadowstats says it was 10% then and 10% now: http://www.shadowstats.com/...
so where is the difference? There is too much debt now to get the monetary velocity needed for stagflation, a recession means debt deflation which means more qe and lower rates and more home buyer programs. The credit cycle can't end without banks shifting their lending into property, lowering lending standards, creating a blowoff in prices in 2020 to 2024 and then needing bailouts as the mortgages go bad in the massive end cycle recession/banking crisis. Everything is happening just as it always happens on an 18 year mortgage credit cycle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...
US REIT crisis
---
18 years later:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol...
US S&L crisis
---
18 years later:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...
US bank bailouts

The fireworks will come but you will have to wait 7 more years, Australia and Canada are a different story, they will have their crisis now.

Re: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

aac74 — Mon, 30 Jul 2018 13:02:14 -0000

The lesson from history is that the government and fed gets very interested in mortgage credit expansion in a recession and stock market crash! Also the fed doesn't control banks' credit mix, after years of property price rises bank lending always shifts to property as that kind of lending looks increasingly safe and profitable. Mid credit cycle recessions aren't characterised by mortgage defaults because inflation is low or falling (limited upside on rates) and lending standards were tightened after the last property crash. In order for things to be different this time they have to be different e.g. massive general price inflation that just isn't happening.

Re: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

aac74 — Sun, 29 Jul 2018 11:31:30 -0000

Maybe not but as long as the data indicates this e.g. no world war, I'm going to have to assume bank credit will behave the same way it has done for 400 years, especially if negative rates and more QE are on the cards. In 2003 house prices in the UK were supposed to crash 30% (https://www.andrewoswald.co..., instead they rose double digits each year for four years. If banks can expand mortgage credit (too many loans aren't going bad e.g. interest rates are slashed and QE restarted) they will and thus prices will rise.

Re: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

aac74 — Sun, 29 Jul 2018 02:44:31 -0000

Property prices are a function of the 18 to 20 year mortgage credit cycle. In the us, uk and europe the cycle started in 2008, in Australia it started in 1998. So Australia is headed for a massive price bust and bank failures but elsewhere there is plenty of room for further mortgage credit expansion and lower lending standards in the face of rising rates just like there was in 2000 to 2003 (the last mid cycle slowdown) and 1980 to 1983 (the slowdown before that). Far from hurting property prices, stock market busts (in the mid cycle) push investors and lenders into property (property becomes the new FAANG stocks).

Re: 'The New York Times' Runs A Comprehensive Hit Piece On Jordan Peterson. It's Dishonest, Malicious Crap.

aac74 — Mon, 21 May 2018 07:58:21 -0000

She cut her teath with her dishonest reporting of Gamergate for ReCode/MSNBC

Re: Jordan Peterson vs Cathy Newman, Part 3: Revenge of the SJW Spin Doctors

aac74 — Tue, 23 Jan 2018 11:47:12 -0000

https://www.youtube.com/wat...

Re: What’s best to invest in now – stocks or houses?

aac74 — Thu, 19 Oct 2017 19:33:15 -0000

if you were going to do a property investment over 50 years (without rent) you would immediately demolish the house or just buy a plot with implicit planning permission. The investment is in the land capital, the thing that is going up in value. The only value the house capital has is its ability to produce rent. The house is like a machine in a factory, it can produce stuff but has running costs and eventually is scrapped.

Also maybe 50% of stock investments ARE property investments so this is a comparison of a pure property investment versus a 'property plus other capital' investment. I would expect the pure property investment (just stick a straw in the economy and suck value) to win over the long term versus plc business profits.

Re: What’s best to invest in now – stocks or houses?

aac74 — Thu, 19 Oct 2017 19:08:15 -0000

how can you write something like this without talking about the Homer Hoyt / Fred Harrison 18 year mortgage credit / property price cycle ? Or geo-Austrian business cycle theory? i.e. models that have correctly predicted house price booms based on shifts in bank lending away from business investments and into mortgages over an 18 cycle driven by rates averaging around 5%.

http://thepropertyhub.net/t...

http://www.foldvary.net/wor...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Po...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bo...

Re: The BBC's Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

aac74 — Sun, 27 Aug 2017 13:28:01 -0000

If you can learn to read and have access to the web, why become literate in a language that only exists on one website run by white people in London? Unless that is the plan? The white leftist man is literally writing the poor black man's dictionary for him and then controlling the content he is given. Africa has journalists and websites and not all are controlled by corrupt states, yet not one is teaching people a new written english.

Re: The BBC's Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

aac74 — Sun, 27 Aug 2017 13:15:21 -0000

The BBC are geniuses, teach the Aftrican to read Pidgin so the only propaganda they can access is BBC approved!

Re: PureVPN Chrome Extension

aac74 — Sat, 12 Aug 2017 07:29:42 -0000

Yep seems to be working fine now.

Re: PureVPN Chrome Extension

aac74 — Fri, 11 Aug 2017 09:45:09 -0000

The chome extension has stopped working for me on all my ubuntu 16.04 machines running chrome Version 60.0.3112.90 (Official Build) (64-bit). Doesn't matter which country I try to connect to I can connect but not load any web pages (even after logging the extension out and reentering my username and password). I can still use pureVPN via OS network settings though.

Re: Michael Sheen Quits Acting Just So He Can Get Away From Sarah Silverman

aac74 — Sun, 18 Dec 2016 08:40:17 -0000

Who hasn't dumped a girl to 'go and fight the forces of fascism' in another country?

Re: Anita Sarkeesian Looks Like a Drug-Addled Bargain Basement Hooker in Latest Video

aac74 — Thu, 03 Nov 2016 17:35:06 -0000

This is your face on feminism: http://i4.birminghammail.co...

Re: Wacky scenes from Scientology’s ‘Battlefield Earth’ launch on Hollywood Boulevard

aac74 — Sun, 07 Aug 2016 10:15:37 -0000

Sheila Bakker is in this video from the early 90s at 16 minutes in:
https://www.youtube.com/wat...

Re: Google ‘Spaces’ Now Has an Official Chrome Extension

aac74 — Fri, 15 Jul 2016 15:12:10 -0000

facebook groups are overkill for small groups e.g. up to 10 people. This can be set up and people invited in seconds and is private only. New users can learn the interface in a few minutes. No complex moderation features to learn. It is very much 'google keep' for small work groups, the interfaces are almost identical. A clear use case would be to add group chat to a 'google sites' project page or replace some group internal emails in a small office where Slack would be overkill e.g. if an office has part time job sharing staff that need to leave notes for each other. I'd say it is basically the very lowest level of group/project/forum ware

Re: The Spectator’s notes

aac74 — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 16:52:46 -0000

Syria IS intervention from just about every direction !

Re: Has Brexit marked the top for UK commercial property?

aac74 — Thu, 07 Jul 2016 10:20:29 -0000

A simple low cost (0.4%) EFT of REITs makes sense: https://www.ishares.com/uk/...

Re: Why a basic income won’t work

aac74 — Wed, 15 Jun 2016 16:57:45 -0000

that is what they said about cash machines but there still seems to be lots of bank staff. Robots just change the nature of jobs and drive down unskilled wages. We need less journalist but many more programmers to write blog software. The much greater problem is the integration of low and high wage economies, this has been a disaster for the western working class and needs to be halted e.g. via #Brexit

Re: Why a basic income won’t work

aac74 — Wed, 15 Jun 2016 16:52:12 -0000

depends on how you go about it. At the very least local governments could start land banking so when they give planning permission they get the freehold gain, leasehold sale value and ground rents

Re: Why a basic income won’t work

aac74 — Mon, 13 Jun 2016 11:13:27 -0000

It's not so much 'take over' as drive wages down to poverty levels (below minimum wage) for unskilled workers. Robots do robot tasks well, that changes jobs and frees labour up to do more productive work.

Re: Why a basic income won’t work

aac74 — Sat, 11 Jun 2016 18:38:27 -0000

Clearly it depends on how it is implemented! You don't want to put 16 year olds or new immigrants on a pension but at the rate we are going no one will ever get a pension. Maybe a negative income tax would be best, most people don't want to be inert and if you have a safety net you can get rid of minimum wages and employment regulations that kill low end job formation. One man's trash is another man's treasure.

It all comes down to tax in the end. A basic income must be funded via a better tax system on land values. Otherwise you still have the property owners getting tax rebates via capital gains on their land while renters are trapped on a basic income.