Disqus - Latest Comments for Waiting_to_Buy

Re: MBC Turns 7

Waiting to Buy — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 12:26:32 -0000

Happy Birthday MBC! It's been a great ride Dave - thanks for your help with everything! ;)

Re: Weekend Opens (6/27-6/28)

Waiting to Buy — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 10:56:39 -0000

Builder negligence. Lawsuits. Terrible, unfortunate situation.

Re: What Could Not Sell Does, Again | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Sun, 06 May 2012 14:59:57 -0000

December of 2011 isn't exactly 1996.

And the buyer's broker was on here for a couple of weeks last year -- didn't exactly inspire confidence.

Re: Whatcha Got? | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 18:09:53 -0000

Think you need to read more carefully amigo.

Re: MB Confidential Is 5 | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 09:12:50 -0000

Happy Birthday! You'll always be MBWatcher to me, Dave! Thanks for everything!

Re: Sunday Opens (3/11) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 19:39:55 -0000

Toured through 711 11th today. On balance, I think it's a nice home and there were plenty of positives. First, the quality of the build is good, and the layout made sense given what they had to work with. There are four bedrooms downstairs, including the master up front which gets the most sunlight. A sizable office across from the master is great, which is also light and airy. The small yard is very sunny and as nice as you can get given the size of the lot. I also like the way they chose to access it.

The second floor, with one bedroom, a big kitchen, and multiple living spaces, both indoors and out, is big and today was drenched in sunlight. I particularly like the balcony with the outdoor fireplace. The second floor felt both formal and comfortable at the same time. I liked it a lot.

My single biggest issue with the home is something that is difficult to imagine now, especially on a day like today. But the two homes to the West, which are low and old, will likely one day be maxed out. When and if that happens I think the home will feel very different. The bulk of the views are to the West (there are some to the South, of the PV hills) and if there are two 30' homes there, I think the living space upstairs will have a distinctly different feel as you'll be staring at the side of a home and/or roof, instead of hills and ocean. The wisdom of a reverse floorplan might be debatable at that point, and will make the home a much tougher sell for the next owners.

Finally, 11th is busy at the corner of Highview, and there's no sidewalk to use. Being so close to MBB makes the immediate area feel a little more congested.

All in though, I think it's a nice home. As with everything, it will come down to price. Personally, I don't think they're close at $3.799M, but, I've been wrong before. And inventory isn't sitting around very long these days. But when I compare this to, say, 849 10th, which is almost as big, bigger lot, bigger yard, and was last at $2.489M, or even (overpriced) 510 N. Poinsettia, I can't get anywhere near the asking price. Maybe overpricing on the list might work if the market has found a base off of which it's going to start rising. If not, this one's gonna sit...

Re: 2011 Wrap: More Sales, 2004 Median | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 14:19:42 -0000

Great post, MBWatcher. Love all the data, as always.

One thing that strikes me, and a question I would love to know the answer to, is whether or not the run up in prices during the bubble was as strong in MB as it was in lower-priced, "lesser quality" neighborhoods. The reason I ask is because a lot of people often say things along the lines of:

...yeah, prices are down in MB, but it's held in a heck of a lot better than other markets.

While that might be true from peak to trough I suspect that areas like Riverside had a much stronger run up in prices in percentage terms.

Not that it really matters, but if you indexed prices starting at 100, say in 2000, it would be interesting to see where the index is for MB and other, lower-priced neighborhoods.

Would be interested in your guess if nothing else. Just a thought. Thanks again!

Re: Little Prices in East MB | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:59:36 -0000

If only someone had rung a bell back then.

I think MBW is taking a subtle, and well-deserved, bow since this blog rang a bell in March of 2007 with its very first post stating that prices were falling in MB.

Re: Weekend Opens (1/15-1/16) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 10:29:18 -0000

Another bogus relist at 301 16th. How many is that now?

The owner and broker are really using a fantastic strategy to sell the place. It's yielding great results. Keep at it!

Re: MBC Breaks a Million (Or More) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 09:26:03 -0000

One million congratulations on a job very well done!

Re: Return of the 1801s | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 21:15:21 -0000

Hey 2800 Palm - 2007 called. It wants its listing back.

Actually, I disagree. I think that maybe the problem is that in addition to using all caps in the listing, you need to bold it as well.

That'll do it.

Re: -1% Since '07? | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 18:05:53 -0000

Seller's agent did well for his client.

Buyer's agent, not so much.

Oh wait, same agent. HUGE surprise there.

Re: Weekend Opens (10/8-10/9) | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:49:34 -0000

Haha - did 416 10th really just cut the price earlier today, and now do a bogus relist?? Nice! Keep it up! Strategy seems to be working so far!

Re: Former Speckie Undersells Current Speedies | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 14:25:26 -0000

Well, as least the current environment has stopped a_non from bragging about how he bottom-ticked the market.

Thanks for the math MBWatcher. $400k? Wow.

Re: Former Speckie Undersells Current Speedies | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 12:55:17 -0000

MBWatcher - what's the math that gets you to "high-profit" at $1.5M+?

Thanks.

Re: Fall Cuts, Part II | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:10:27 -0000

Can't believe the owners are letting the same agent represent them on the sale.

Re: First Speedy Speckie Snagged | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 16:53:27 -0000

Nope. Never debated the direction of markets.

My name, after all, is "Waiting to Buy", right?

Re: First Speedy Speckie Snagged | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 01:06:44 -0000

Actually they don't disagree. You are using household median, I'm using family median. And since we're talking about single family homes, family median is the relevant statistic. If you look at your data, you'll see a $101k median for 2000, that's the household median. Same as my data, which is from the US census:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

So clearly, we're using the same data.

The only assumption I made was growing the 2007 family median at the same growth rate. Might not be exact, but I bet it's damn close.

Whether or not we go into a double-dip, and how that affects median, is speculation. Pure speculation. I might agree with you on that. Or disagree. That's not the point.

I'm talking about the current data, and applying the metric that you so frequently toss around as to why we have a huge leg down in front of us.

Sorry. You'll have to rely purely on speculation as to why we've got another huge leg down if you want to use median income multiples.

(Hint: stick with cap rates!)

Re: First Speedy Speckie Snagged | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:47:47 -0000

Holy crap! Anon7 just called the bottom in MB real estate!

Anon7 said ...but a 7-9 multiple relative to income, imho isn't out of the question.

We're already there.

Median family income in MB in 2000 was $123k. In 2007 it was $149k. That's a 2.8% growth rate. Grow median income at that rate from 2007 until today and in 2011 it stands at $166k.

9 * $166k = $1.5M. That's our current median.

Wow. I never would have guessed it. Anon7 says MB RE has bottomed, or, worst case, has only another ~20% to fall (7x median)!!

Re: First Speedy Speckie Snagged | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 18:54:00 -0000

Anon7,

You continually use median income multiples as justification for why homes are overpriced in MB. I would argue that it's not a great metric for places like Manhattan Beach, where there has been an influx of affluent buyers (relative to existing homeowners) over the last decade, if not longer.

Put another way, the median price isn't the median price of all existing homes, it's the median of the homes that transact in a given year. What matters is the median price of homes that transact relative to the median income of those buyers.

I'm not suggesting that those multiples weren't much higher than normal during the bubble years, as I'd be willing to bet a million dollars that they were.

But to continually say that prices will drop to historic averages of the entire town's median income won't happen, IMHO, unless the trend of the more affluent wanting to move here abates, and I doubt that's going to happen.

I still think prices are too high, but if you think they can get down to 5x median income for MB, I'll take the other side and give you some healthy odds.

Re: First Speedy Speckie Snagged | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 09:42:16 -0000

And..........scene.

GREAT post in 2008, MBWatcher. Great post today.

OK - you took a little bit of a victory lap here, but, YOU DESERVE IT!!

Re: Off-Market Sale May Be No Deal | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 16:59:46 -0000

IMHO, there is absolutely no way that it should be legal for a broker to represent both sides of the transaction. There is a blatant and inherent conflict of interest that I don't see how any rational person can deny one exists (I'm not saying that you did).

And I sincerely doubt that she said something along the lines of "I want to make sure you understand that it's my first responsibility to make sure the seller gets the best deal possible, so you might want to seriously consider getting another broker to represent you." IMHO, that's the only ethical thing to do (actually, the only ethical thing to do is to refuse to represent the buyer). I'm willing to bet you there's a 99.99% chance that she didn't have that conversation.

Re: Off-Market Sale May Be No Deal | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:35:11 -0000

Big surprise -- the agent represented both the buyer and the seller.

Not sure which is more disappointing on this deal: the lack of ethics by the broker, and her firm, or the gullibility of the buyer. It's a tough call...

Re: A Rent/Buy Example | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 15:14:14 -0000

Thanks for the lesson in regression analysis Anon7. And sales trends. I come across that from time to time in my profession.

I realize the trend is down, which is why I said "...bucks the most recent trend." I was simply pointing out a contrary data point.

Re: A Rent/Buy Example | Manhattan Beach Confidential

Waiting to Buy — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 20:39:58 -0000

Well, 523 14th certainly bucks the most recent trend. Sold for $3.1 in Sept. 2009, was listed for $3.4 in July and just closed for $3.505(!). One sale doth not a trend make, but, certainly a bullish data point.