Disqus - Latest Comments for TriggerJ

Re: Mountain

Jman — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 09:00:29 -0000

im trying this again, my last post was eaten LOL

$NYA made little progress while $NYSI kept climbling
if that keep happening, this market will top out sometime in Aug for sure

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s205343686]&disp=P

and

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s205341832]&disp=P

i can see a more weakness around econ reports 1st wk of Aug, but should rally on hint of more QE from Fed at FOMC on Aug 10

http://www.zerohedge.com/ar...

Re: Mountain

Jman — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 08:54:21 -0000

addded 2 charts to public list
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
and
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
just wanted to share
the warnings signs are here already
but how long will it last?
$NYA made little progress while $NYSI kept climbling
if that keep happening, this market will top out sometime in Aug for sure

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 July

Jman — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 08:29:45 -0000

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s205343686]&disp=P
if this keep up, markets will peak at some point, but when?
history shows it is possible for markets to rise even if $NYSI were not rising, but markets not rising while $NYSI moves up is another red flag
anyway, i just added these 2 charts to my public list lately and wanted to share
http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s205341832]&disp=P

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 July

Jman — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 20:00:25 -0000

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s175462019]&disp=P
ABCXABC complex correction is only thing that makes sense given high valuation based on trailing earnings
and cheap valuation based on forward earnings IMHO

Re: E-minis

Jman — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:41:39 -0000

Thanks!
Good Luck is just what we will need :-)

Re: Gold:USD - 20% Pullback Coming?

Jman — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:52:03 -0000

any ideas why Discus isnt allowing comments on your latest posts? this is the only place i saw where i could make a comment, so i thought i would ask here. TIA

Re: Gold:USD - 20% Pullback Coming?

Jman — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:50:48 -0000

any ideas why Discus isnt allowing comments on your latest posts? this is the only place i saw where i could make a comment, so i thought i would ask here.
TIA

Re: Gold:USD - 20% Pullback Coming?

Jman — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 19:53:11 -0000

have you seen a chart showing Alt-A or Option adjustable Rate Resets for the next 2 years?
It should be proof enough that Fed has a lot more money to print over the next couple years!

Re: CPC Extremes

Jman — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 14:25:53 -0000

Here are a few thoughts on how i interpret the $VIX/$SPX relationship on the 30 min- chart
$VIX/$SPX made a bearish divergence on Thursday as it was testing the highs, but a bullish divergence on Friday as $SPX was testing the lows.
http://jacksmarkettiming.bl...
Some Gann Thoerists see 1150 as a very likely top (and even high for the year) since there is a "bow-tie" formation, and we know many floor traders watch signals like that, but it also explains why the charts are showing caution in classic TA indicators over the last week. Those signals at this point can easily turn back to a more bullish posture. Since Ben has not dissappointed the market yet, i think many things like $USD, $CRB, indices, etc. , while in a holding pattern, will rally again around the next FOMC meet since they have room to run even though they are overvalued and running on momo and pure optimism. The dominant pattern is the double top for the S&P with 1164 being the mid-point of that first trough/peak (from 2000-2003). Normally, one would expect to see a rebound to that midpoint as a sign of strength. Falling short of that level would not look as bullish on the long term charts. IMHO
But there is no doubt in my mind that this is a good time to be thinking of taking money off the table (generally speaking) and not going long (except very selectively).
catch ya later,
you have good posts as always!

Re: Toilet Bowl Battles

Jman — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 07:38:41 -0000

i was sure you heard this one before, or i wouldnt have kept you hanging :-)
he worked it out with a pencil !

Re: Toilet Bowl Battles

Jman — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 18:29:40 -0000

Im sure you heard the about the constipated mathematcian too!

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January

Jman — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 23:25:27 -0000

i saw your comment last night, but had little time to reply

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s182214755]&disp=P

if you look at the 10 month sma (roughly the equivalent of the 200 day sma) as an example, it can go on a long time
but one also needs to look at the FA to put things into perspective
btw, i noticed the 10 has crossed over the 20 last week, for the first time in a long time!
wild huh?
IMHO, considering how steep as it is now and as long as it has been that way, i expect the market to trade in a sideways 60-70 pt range (roughly 1110-1180) if things pan out as i expect and S&P peaks by early Feb around 1175ish

Re: 01/13/2010 Market Recap: NATV/NYTV a Little Too High

Jman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:24:47 -0000

http://stockcharts.com/def/...
just had some thoughts to share
have a look!

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January

Jman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:22:16 -0000

this is what i think is most likely to happen short term for S&P
http://stockcharts.com/def/...
i dont see anyone showing this aspect, so i had to post it
syl Dan

Re: Can It Continue To Run?

Jman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:15:51 -0000

long time no see, i been around, just no time to post a lot
here is a little different twist in case you havent seen it yet
http://stockcharts.com/def/...

Re: Industrials/Trannies Non-Confirmation So Far

Jman — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:04:53 -0000

for some reason, i just dont think the S&P is going to cooperate and follow lines, but is in a different kind of pattern
http://stockcharts.com/def/...
S&P following exact same angle of ascent as 200 day sma since early Nov

Re: O Mandelbrot, O Mandelbrot

Jman — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 13:21:47 -0000

First let me say I always enjoy reading your analysis.
I know you are presenting what is your most likely scenario and we need to see all the possibilies. Thanks for taking the time to share and post here. I updated a few more charts keeping in mind the longer term trends, and agree, it is not cut and dried where the market is headed into 2011 and beyond, and I will be back checking out your work. For now, the most logical thing to me is to watch how a much anticipated consolidation phase takes shape while keeping a close eye on LEIs and guidance for 2010 and beyond. I am sure the charts will give an indication as to how this next phase will be resolved well before it breaks out to the upside ( I hope ! ) or the downside. 2010 will be a stockpickers market to say the least and stockpicking will be my main strategy, while only trading the index etfs when it looks like the market is at the extreme end of the range. Have a nice weekend, get some rest, and hope things are going well at home with the new addition and all !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
Look for an update soon on my blog. It is hard to find the time to update as much as I would like to, but I always manage to find time to do so as the market appoaches critical inflection points as it is doing now.
Jack

Re: Possible Overnight Counts

Jman — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:31:18 -0000

i wonder if it will turn around now after looking at the futures
they really took a plunge since then, and USD made another big leg up

Re: Gold Charts, US Dollar Charts

Jman — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:10:06 -0000

you dont hear a lot of talk about this, but isnt there a push to come up with some new world currency in the distant future? or at least a move away from the $USD as a reserve currency? (another reason for many looking at gold as a safe haven, in the event there is a new currency to replace another somewhere, that is the safest place to be since anyone holding illiquid assets will take a beating, since when a new currecny is issued, owners of illiquid assets are not compensated, your cash will be replaced in that event with the new currency and you will be happy with that, but the illiquid assets wont, there are going to be a lot of folks get burnt when that happens)
there is no doubt that the US will have to take serious action in fiscal policy to get the budget back inline, since higher rates on bonds (which is preceeding a lower low in the $USD, bond holders are not going to wait for the $USD to make new lows to start selling bonds, they are not stupid ! ) will easily raise the interest payments on our debt by 50% quickly, a snowball effect, with will in turn put more pressure on the $USD,
when will it end?

all this is actually quite normal, money printing that is. it is part of a 20-year business cycle that runs on credit that needs to be primed again every so often since credit itself is a house of cards in the end, the
lending always hits a wall at some point, just by the nature of the beast.
what isnt normal about it is, that they used excessive leverage this time, which is why things were blown so far out of proportion.
thats all folks, later

Re: Gold Charts, US Dollar Charts

Jman — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:15:37 -0000

how true, this is not a good time to go long! (except for the most nimble of traders)
i am curious to see where/when it peaks this month and Jan
i am not a raging bull, but getting short here might require a little patience if the market manages to claw its way a little higher,
the turn can come at anytime
if the market clawed higher into Jan, i would be more aggressive building short positions
the best time to get long on the market for the long term investor is coming in 2010, if .... ( you know where im headed i think )

Re: Gold Charts, US Dollar Charts

Jman — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:06:26 -0000

let me saw rephrase that, i was a little quick in my reply before,
yes, there is a connection with inflation/deflation as always, but it is what is causing the inflation deflation, it is more like which came first, the chicken or the egg
so, yes, there is a connection, but this latest move is more directly connected to the likes of India doing some real buying of gold etc (others are all doing the same like China, even the Mint stopped sellinig gold & silver coins recently). Hope that makes sense.
Also, keep in mind that when the premier gold miners like ABX do a secondary stock offering and dilute thier own stock at a huge cost just to close a hedge on gold, and the rest if the miners will be doing likewise, that is some significant buying interest that will put a floor under it for some time to come.

Those are the kind of things that i was referring to as having the main impact on gold at the present time, which in turn is because of worldwide currency devaluation, which leads to inflation some time in the future, IOW, gold is making it move now well in advance of the inflation that is coming, so actually, inflation will have an effect, but is not here yet!

it is the chicken that laid the egg !
if that makes sense :-)

Re: Gold Charts, US Dollar Charts

Jman — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 12:16:42 -0000

re: deflation
the move in gold has nothing to do with deflation or inflation (either of which can have a positive effect on gold prices) IMO
we will likley see inflation in some areas and deflation in others
it is being bought up by very large institutions etc in preparation for a major change currencies in the future, so the price will probably be held up here for a long time to come, not that it wont see sub 1000 level at times, but it will remain strong from some time to come
gold has always been volatile (and goes for a long time before making a large move) and is a tricky animal to understand (ie: reason it is hated so much! ) so i wont be concerned if it did see a 20% correction in the future

the macro picture ( next 20 years) looks like this: emrging markets are where we were 50 years ago, and if they get their economies going anything like ours, there will be a great demand for natural resources, more than ever before, there for, i will keep looking to buy stocks of those companies that own them

Re: Gold Charts, US Dollar Charts

Jman — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 09:39:19 -0000

Something changed for the long term when USd broke below 80 in 2008 IMO
your chart does a good job showing that as the first point of resistance on the ABC correction and a rise over that in 2010 as a "Flight to Safety" ( a huge mis-nomer, who would be buying dollars in a crisis when that is the cause ! ) but it can happen I suppose. Markets are actually rather stupid sometimes.

here is a link to a dollar chart of mine, there are more on that list.
http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s179019457]&disp=P
Personally, I think it will be a real feat to get back over 78, by that time the 50 week ema will be down that far and 78 is also a level of major horzontal resistance. Just kidding here, but you may end up shifting the ABC pattern lower with the C being around 80 :-) Is that possible in your FA of USD?
On valuation basis, USD is fairly valued here, and I dont know what would make that valuation go higher since we are just beginning a process that will last for the next few years that will keep deficits extremenly high no matter how you look at it. Therefore, I find it difficult to see the market pushing $USD up above 80 again, at that point it would be way overvalued, and with the market tyring to rally with $USD here lately, that is a "tell" to me that it thinks the $USD will stay low (below 80-83) for the short term and not get over 80 for any significant length of time if at all.

Re: E-minis

Jman — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 08:53:36 -0000

http://stockcharts.com/def/...[s174671130]&disp=P
Let me know what you think and if it seems possible that the market could just be range bound for an extended period

Re: The Irony of Wave Pyschology

Jman — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:03:03 -0000

ignore the noise Dan
i get the same thing all the time,
every call has its parameters, and even if i say MAYBE ... and IF ... , they try to nail me to it as if i said it WILL ...
i get a lot from your observations, but even then, i go with the option that fits my overall assessment of the markets, even if it is the low probability choice.
Keep up the good work, Please
Jack