Disqus - Latest Comments for Trackermike

Re: Information Arbitrage: Why I'm Not Blogging

Mike in the Midwest — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:46:19 -0000

A well deserved break Roger. Your blog has always been a breath of fresh air in the blogosphere. I do hope you will post from time to time when the urge to write creeps back. Until then...Godspeed.

Re: Bailing out the Bailout

Mike in the Midwest — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:49:30 -0000

Roger, One of your best posts to date on the government's mismanagement of bailouts. I will certainly spread the word. Hope everyone else who reads your blog does the same.

One issue of particular concern for me is that if PPIP doesn't work at what point do Bernanke, Geithner and Obama lose credibility with Main St.? It seems like this was their "go-for-broke" strategy and if it doesn't work I fear that bailout fatigue will finally set in. In other words consumers and business will not have confidence that government will solve the crisis and spending will collapse. My 2 cents.

Re: Buy the Rumor, Sell the ...

Mike in the Midwest — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 11:46:51 -0000

In Roger's defense, I think that the network effects of blogs written by knowledgeable people such as Roger are far greater than just the "vanishingly small" numbers of people who read them firsthand. To my recollection, Roger was one of the first people --journalist, blogger, or politician-- to talk about the good bank/bad bank structure.

See for yourself: http://www.google.com/searc...

Re: Fix the Accounting, Then Fix the System

Mike in the Midwest — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 13:34:14 -0000

Nice to see that Steve Forbes is reading the blog.
http://video.forbes.com/fvn...

So if we end MTM and a bank's BV doubles overnight will investors really believe that is its true value, and MTM was just an aberration? I think not. No one will invest in an asset if they think it's true value is substantially less than its reported value. This is true with the current form of mark-to-market or with mark-to-model.

Re: The Citi Never Sleeps - Only its Board, Risk Managers and Regulators

Mike in the Midwest — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:03:22 -0000

Great Post as usual Roger.

Your post also re-emphasizes the inherent problem with regulation (i.e. accounting standards); it is always a reactive process. There is really no catalyst for forward-looking regulation. Sure there are “emerging-issues” taskforces within the regulating bodies, but the process of drafting and ratifying regulation is still painfully slow. Just look at FAS 157. Maybe this is an issue SOC can tackle.

The other option (the non-regulation route) is for shareholders to become more activist in demanding better disclosure from company management. This only works if we trust that the disclosures are 1) correct – read: Satyam and 2) all-encompassing of off-balance sheet arrangements – read: Enron. Corporate governance is really a lost art these days- it's time shareholders demand best practices.

You’ve blogged about both of these issues before. It bears repeating.

Mike in the Midwest.

Re: Citi to Integrate Corporate and Investment Banking - 10 Years Too Late

Mike in the Midwest — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:02:54 -0000

Really underscores the differences between organic vs. acquisition-led growth. I wonder if the BAC/MER merger will eventually suffer the same personell redundancy and in-fighting. At least Ken Lewis has a horrible economy as an impetus for more integration of staff/technology.

Re: Citigroup Bailout: Not Far Enough

Mike in the Midwest — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:21:38 -0000

Because Prince Alwaleed and others at SWFs would be pissed and we can't piss off our key trading partners (especially those that export oil) or they might just stop buying US treasuries. See how this the system reinforces bad decisions and quick fixes.

Re: Scanning the News: Tough Times Require Decisive Action

Mike in the Midwest — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:45:34 -0000

Roger, If CDS' are moved to an exchange do you think the next step is to augment 13-F filings to include them? Do you think that would take some systematic risk off the table if regulators/counterparties could see positions on a quarterly basis?
I think this issue already came up with Total Return Swaps in the CSX vs. TCI/3G lawsuit, but it was related to 13-d filings.

regards,
Mike

Re: Congratulations, Senator. Now the Real Work Begins.

Mike in the Midwest — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:47:35 -0000

Roger,

Here Here! Your article reminds me of the popular slogan, "Think global, act local."

This country is not going to solve its problems based on the blind belief that the president will fix them for you. This is why short-termism thrives today! Call your congressperson sometime; they are obligated to listen to you.

Re: Is 24/7 Media Impacting the Markets (and our sanity)?

Mike in the Midwest — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 11:28:52 -0000

Roger, It seems like the media (blogosphere included) has been trying to call a "capitulation point" now for some time. Just go to Google trends and type in capitulation and you'll see what I mean. Maybe i'm still too young, but doesn’t the fact that people believe capitulation is near prolong its inevitable occurrence? How will we ever get a wash out when the media keeps calling a market bottom, investors flood back into the market, we get a short covering rally (dead cat bounce as you alluded to earlier this year), and a fresh new wave of "oh by the way now we're going into recession" media coverage ensues?

I'm not mad at the media; it's their prerogative to sell the news. But why are we (retail AND institutional investors) still stupid enough to believe in the fallacy of calling a market bottom? If there are 2 things that we should have learned so far from this crisis it’s that we’re NOT smarter than the market and that irrationality knows no boundaries.

Sorry for the long post!