Disqus - Latest Comments for StilesBC

Re: Elliott Wave Update 8 March 2016

StilesBC — Tue, 08 Mar 2016 19:15:37 -0000

Those Fib lines valid? Shouldn't they be from the top of Minor 2 rather than the high?

Re: How Did We Get Here? Or, Why Do 20 Year Old Newsletters Matter So Damn Much?

StilesBC — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 15:07:32 -0000

Thanks for the article, Steve. I think it provides useful context for understanding the history of the liberty movement - something I only encountered around '05-'06. Since then, I've been reading Coordination Problem, Mises.org material and have posted on RonPaulForums.com. I've read much of Mises, Rothbard, Hayek, de Soto, Hazlitt among others. I look forward to getting at "Microfoundations and Macroeconomics" soon.

For myself, I see the disconnect between the various branches of libertarianism to be pretty irrelevant. I have failed to see any major inconsistencies that would force me to take a "side." And if I find it irrelevant, it is much more so for the average GOP voter trying to make a decision between Paul and Romney or Gingrich. Moreover, I feel the discourse over which "father figure" of libertarianism is the "true" one to be just mental masturbation. As if anyone from the 18th or 19th century had a perfect understanding of what we now call libertarianism. We take bits and pieces of insight from numerous people - many of whom had inconsistent views on other issues. Views that were taken as parts of what are now competing ideologies.

You make a valid point in saying that while the letters are a mere microcosm for the direction libertarianism "in general" was taken in the 70's - needing to revive itself, but also needing to oppose Soviet communism. Small "c" conservatives could argue the same in needing to unite with the rising neoconservatives. I really don't think it is all that much more damaging than those associations always have been for the GOP.

Ron's associations with Lew and Murray and some of the others that they associated with (ie of the third degree) will probably be brought up numerous times if he gets closer to the GOP nomination. But this kind of thing is almost always going to be raised for a Republican. The press and Democrats assume them to be racist regardless of evidence.

I think Paul's stated policies on ending the drug war, judicial discrimination against minorities, bringing troops home and more will be able to overcome any damage from the above. Already we hear of Paul doing the best with minorities among GOP contenders.

Thanks again for the history. Don't worry about the haters. They're almost religious in their love for Ron. For them, constructive criticism is akin to opposition. A very simplistic assumption.

But that's what an economics professor gets for straying into politics!

Re: Nonlinear Thinking: Drone Flight-Assembled High Rise Construction

StilesBC — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 20:08:40 -0000

Very Cool.

Re: Workers of Europe unite, you've only euro chains to lose

StilesBC — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 20:21:05 -0000

"Hayekians in the ECB"

Thanks for my evening laugh.

Of all the ideologies to choose to associate with a top-down, price fixing, money printing institution - you use the central bank hating, free banking proponents (Hayekians)? Bizarre.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 December [Update 8:55PM]

StilesBC — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:45:49 -0000

I'm sure this has been noted, but:

If (c) of [Y] is .618 [a], we have a good candidate for a squeaker high at 1293.31. I wouldn't be surprised to see some slight truncation either.

Re: News Links: Ron Paul Only GOP Hopeful with Positive Twitter Following

StilesBC — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 14:31:45 -0000

Ron Paul is the best thing to happen in American politics since Ross Perot.

And he's better than Perot.

Re: More on what I think will happen in Europe

StilesBC — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 14:57:53 -0000

Reminds me of Nov '08. Every day trying to decide whether bank A or bank B would be next, while the only official position was that neither could be allowed to fail.

As it turned out, the official position was correct. They just altered the law to legalize accounting fraud. And even with that fraudulent accounting, we're right back in the same position.

Re: More on what I think will happen in Europe

StilesBC — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 13:50:46 -0000

I agree that we'll likely see theatrics, summits, meetings and joint press releases to busy our minds for the next few months.

But as is illustrated above, none of the greater fiscal integrations necessary are possible to implement. That doesn't mean they won't be announced, and perhaps even disastrously attempted. But we know they will fail. Perverse incentive structures cannot be avoided in such a union. Enforcement is impossible without reviving nationalistic resentment. And popular sentiment is vehemently against it.

The only question that remains is whether the EMU and Eurozone breakup will be orderly or disorderly. It seems incredible to me that leaders of each of these countries are not preparing themselves for this eventuality. But seeing how ideologically opposed they are to the idea, I suppose they could be that foolish. And this is where I see the real risks.

Forget debt default wiping out essentially all major financial institutions, asset deflation destroying public and private pension funds, depositors losing some of their savings (or having it converted to a currency of lesser value). Those are minor problems and generally involve greater pain for those that took the greatest risk. The pain can be justified politically.

I'm worried about last hour realizations that the EMU has failed and what these reactionary governments will do in the hours that follow. If the eurozone crumbles, does the free movement of people and goods necessary follow? And where does the infrastructure come from to monitor this? Do countries start stationing troops on their borders to act as customs officers until enough can be retrained? How does this not eventually revive the nationalistic resentment that integration has helped defuse?

If return to national currencies is taken at the last minute - because all else has failed, are our service industries ready and able to handle the changeover? Or do people starve because grocery stores can't buy goods from their suppliers in francs or lira?

The time for Europe's leaders to prevent these sorts of things is now. If they wait until the 11th hour, chaos will be the result. And the blood will be on their hands if they allow their stubbornness to get in the way of what is in the best interests of their respective electorates.

Re: You are all wrong, printing money can halt Europe's crisis

StilesBC — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 03:56:51 -0000

Ambrose, you have lost your mind.

Re: The Revolving Door of Corporatism Continues

StilesBC — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 19:17:20 -0000

I really wish the blatant nature of these things would put any notion of a left-right paradigm to rest for the major media, so thinking people can get to work on a cross-ideological solution to our problems. But it seems this is just not newsworthy for any of the major networks who continue to point fingers based on perceptions of political allegiances that haven't existed for 40 years.

Is it conspiracy theory to suggest "they're part of it"?

Re: E-minis

StilesBC — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 14:29:55 -0000

Are we backtesting the underside of Dan's broken triangle?

Re: E-minis

StilesBC — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:15:39 -0000

"In a capitalist economy inflation is great."

No, in a corporatist economy, inflation is great. A capitalist economy requires and benefits from deflation.

Re: Manufacturing still firing on all cylinders

StilesBC — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 20:40:55 -0000

This is something that sounds so counter-intuitive to most that it almost seems inevitable. When I tell people that the US is still the world's largest manufacturer, they don't believe me. Is it really that crazy that the world's biggest producer is able to recover from a brief pause in its multi-century growth?

My feeling is the recovery will by filled with dichotomy. The lowest order goods, like steelfab will remain a specialization of the EM, as will the highest order consumer goods (wal-mart, dollar store stuff). Both of those sectors are low margin and highly labour intensive. But the high margin intermediate goods like high-tech machine tools and efficiency devices will remain the specialization of the US and Germany. And this sector will see the greatest expansion in the next business cycle as the infrastructure deficit is closed and the EM factories mentioned above need modernization to achieve the same profit margins as their wages gradually rise.

If this hypothesis is correct, where would you look to invest? I've had EMR and PH on my watchlist for a while, but have foolishly avoided buying - thinking they'll get cheaper in a cyclical contraction that refuses to arrive. Are there any ancillary industries that you think would hitch a ride in this environment?

Re: Manufacturing still firing on all cylinders

StilesBC — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 16:56:43 -0000

Ed,

What do you think about the possibility of the 30 year secular decline of the US manufacturing sector coming to an end? Is it possible that productivity gains (ie. lower wages, technology) in tandem with the weak dollar are finally making up the difference in competitiveness between the US and EM?

This has been one of my long-term hypotheses, but I based it mostly on reactionary mercantilist government policies, a general collapse in China's economy and primarily the "Hayekian" structure of production lengthening due to low rates, growing export markets and shifting time preferences. Those first two haven't (yet) happened, but perhaps the hypothesis is coming to bear for the other reasons.

Thoughts?

Re: Charlie Sheen leaves me speechless

StilesBC — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:37:59 -0000

I see government and Hollywood sharing a lot in common. Both are meccas of excess, both are completely divorced from the reality most experience every day. Both are populated by social status seekers that will do absolutely anything to get ahead. Sociopaths, basically, are the only survivors.

Sheen is rebelling against these sociopaths by refusing to play by their rules. Like a politician that arrives to office only to find out how much greed and corruption dominate the scene. The sociopath adapts and becomes one him/herself. Those that try to change the way things are done are labeled as 'kooky'. But are they? Perhaps Sheen is one of the only sane ones...

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 July

StilesBC — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 20:20:52 -0000

Sure, that's possible. But I don't like it because of the time factor. Wave 1 was 22-32 days (depending on which bottom), and the current rally is 21-31 days already. Wave 2s are most often quick and sharp - shorter in duration than the first wave.

We've been trained to expect long rolling topping formations, as the last one was a ED [v] of C. Some alternation in 2s of different degrees is to be expected.

1085-1103 is the .382-.618 retrace zone of the 1131-1010 move. Wave [a] was about 50%.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 July

StilesBC — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 16:11:48 -0000

I have a hard time counting an impulse from 1131 to 1010. I prefer to count either the 1040 or 1042 lows as minor 1, the move to 1131 as minute [a], 1010 (1002 futures) as minute [b] and a minor 2 top at the trendline for a running flat (EWP pg. 48)

Yes, these are rare, and we're not supposed to "label a correction prematurely in this way." But 1131 to 1010 counts so much better as a 3 than it does a 5, I cannot ignore it. And the "flash crash" certainly fits the billing of 'a strong and fast adjacent impulse wave.'

The strength of a 3rd of 1 of P3 should also be conducive to a truncated [c] in the running flat. Internals of the move to 1010 support this as well. Divergence on momentum indicators likewise.

I like the running flat. Although these factors don't preclude other counts. I want to see exhaustion failure at the 50 and 200 day EMAs (1095) with immediate reversal.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 June

StilesBC — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 22:12:15 -0000

Futures low of 1002.75, so perhaps a test of round number 1000 for a 5th wave low? Or just a bit above prior low for a (b) of 4, with (c) to come? Wasn't much of a 2, so maybe a longer choppy wave 4?

edit: or outright collapse into an extended 5th? If this is P3, that's what we should expect to see more of.

Re: Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve?

StilesBC — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 03:50:40 -0000

No nods to Freddy Hayek? I'll forgive you. Fantastic piece. Best I've read from your pen in a while.

If Dr. Athreya isn't soon disposed of, I will have lost all remaining respect for our monetary policy elite (which is little).

Re: BIS plays with fire, demands double-barrelled monetary and fiscal tightening

StilesBC — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 01:08:50 -0000

BIS has it right. Take the medicine.

We should have done it incrementally every 3 or 4 years as the naturally occurring business cycle dictates. But Keynesian and Monetarist ideology - along with political expediency - wouldn't allow that to happen.

Now we need a 30's style depression to clear out the excesses that their grand central planning experiment has burdened us with.

Hmm, what was that guy's name who warned us this would happen? von Mises or something?

Re: Ben Bernanke needs fresh monetary blitz as US recovery falters

StilesBC — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 10:36:33 -0000

Debt deflation is the cure. The asset owning class should not be "defended" in a free enterprise economy. If they've made speculative bets based on irrational assumptions, then they deserve to be parted with those assets to the benefit of more competent savers.

Re: Baidu Ending Diagonal

StilesBC — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:50:56 -0000

I'd say that is a decent trade. Down $83 in the pre. Nice work Dan.

I nearly tried plays on both AMZN and BIDU. Thought better of the first and was too terrified to try BIDU.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 October

StilesBC — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:48:19 -0000

Here is my technical update for the last week:

http://futronomics.blogspot...

Comments appreciated!

Re: How long does the 5.5 SPX Gap stay Open?

StilesBC — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:19:01 -0000

Well, we gapped lower this AM... island reversal?

I'm disinclined to think so, mainly due to option ex. The prevailing trend typically dominates into Friday. I prefer a blowoff to 1120 or 1150, a throwover of the Dow trendline, and some sort of major non-confirmation in the dollar.