Disqus - Latest Comments for SpeakToMe

Re: Trading Analog Dollars For Digital Pennies

Ted Murphy — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 16:58:23 -0000

I think you guys are delusional. The only way to make money on the internet is through ecommerce. Keyword search and classified page views receive a $40+ cpm, but that's because they are both closely tied to an ecommerce transaction. The rest of internet inventory receives less than $1 cpm. I'm paying $0.055 cpm on my run-of-site advertising over on google adwords.

I see zero hope of this ever changing.

Re: Trading Analog Dollars For Digital Pennies

Ted Murphy — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 16:36:59 -0000

stickam.com is really, really cool.

Re: The Case for Derivatives

Ted Murphy — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 10:02:08 -0000

Derivatives allow financial intermediaries to diversify risk. As such, they have acted to drive down interest rates for borrowers. If we did away with derivatives, mortgage rates would be in double digits.

Re: Congratulations, Senator. Now the Real Work Begins.

Ted Murphy — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:09:42 -0000

Your remedies made me search for "what can the U.S. learn from japan?" Here are the articles I felt were most interesting, starting with a prescient view of our housing bubble written back in 2006:

http://www.oftwominds.com/b...
http://www.npr.org/template...
http://www.usatoday.com/mon...
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy...

Re: Hacking Education

Ted Murphy — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 08:08:02 -0000

I have three kids going through middle school and high school here in the US, so I can relate to much of this discussion.

I do think there is an opportunity in online learning games -- although I would hook them to standardized tests. The ability to quantify progress must be part of the game, and linking them to a standardized test score would make the value proposition clearer.

From what has worked for my family, I would suggest a different path. I think that the really miraculous leaps in education come from 1-1 interaction between a gifted teacher and a student. I think that empowering more people to act as tutors in subjects they are familiar with is the way to go.

Re: Entrepreneurs 1 - Patent Trolls 0

Ted Murphy — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:01:54 -0000

Its tough standing on the shoulders of giants when one of them can reach up and pop you into his mouth.

Re: Twitter: Monetize the Apps, not the Platform

Ted Murphy — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:36:20 -0000

I think they need to come up with an app. The platform itself may never be monetized. Other open source apps monetize themselves largely through tech support -- no need for that on Twitter, imo.

The app I think they need to create is a Twitter version of Craigslist. Classifieds are easy to monetize.

Re: Hedge Funds: The Third Quarter Report

Ted Murphy — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 10:52:05 -0000

Wow. This is an awesome post and self-response. Really, really good. Thank you!

Edit - I'm trying to find a chart of PCE that shows -3.1% -- can't seem to find it:

http:// research.stlouisfed.org/fre...[1][id]=PCE&s[1][transformation]=ch1

Re: Some Observations on Quantitative Trading

Ted Murphy — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:13:58 -0000

The move to regulate the derivatives markets will result in new opportunities for quants.

Remember the success of index arb when the stock futures market started trading, or the success of Datek Securities (creators of the Island ECN) and the SOES bandits when online stock trading began.

I would love to be among the first to harness a quant system to whatever exchange gets control of the swaps market, for example.

Re: Hedge Funds: The Third Quarter Report

Ted Murphy — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 10:51:59 -0000

I don't see the current environment as significantly different than historical precedents. Of course, I went through the '87 crash, and I was trained by guys who went through severe bear markets in the '70's.

It is very difficult to react successfully to market events; rather you need to constantly position your investments so that they are most likely to meet your goals. After you've had enough failures in foresight, you realize that's the best you can do.

Take a step back and look at your goals. Then, approach the stock market as one tool to achieving the financial aspects of those goals. Don't let the tail wag the dog.

Re: Restoring Functioning Markets in a Broken World

Ted Murphy — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:18:33 -0000

I agree completely with #1 and #2, but I think "#3: Work with laser focus to keep credit-worthy people in their homes" will lead, in practice, to inducing banks to tear up their mortgage contracts with people who either 1) have trouble paying their mortgages or 2) would simply rather not. That's a lot of people, btw.

In the end, pursuing #3 will lead to the unintended consequence of "Banks aren't motivated to lend because they don't see a risk/reward profile that warrants it." The idea that we will force the banks to lend despite their own rational preference will probably be ineffectual (we can't force then enough) and counter-productive (such loans will inevitably by losers).

Re: Citigroup, Merrill and Citadel: Not So Pretty

Ted Murphy — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 23:14:00 -0000

I basically agree with everything you said. The one darker element (and as a less public figure than you, perhaps I am better able to bring it up) is the possibility of self-dealing behind Paulson's inconsistency. I think Gretchen Morgenson's careful delineation of AIG being bailed out while LEH was left to die is kind of like a forward falling in the penalty box after contact with a defender. Its either a yellow card to the forward for taking a dive or its a penalty kick. Either Morgenson should be publicly chastised or Paulson should be canned.

Re: Citigroup, Merrill and Citadel: Not So Pretty

Ted Murphy — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:55:47 -0000

I totally agree with your point about mark-to-market. The problem as I see it is that financial market participants don't know which trading partners they can trust. The problem is not how to save any individual bank. Lets treat the disease rather than the symptoms.

To that end, perhaps you could comment upon the "catastrophic error" of letting Lehman go under. I'm not sure that it was an error, personally.

Re: The Stupidest Answer In The World

Ted Murphy — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:52:55 -0000

Wow. That is absolutely awesome, no lie. Thanks!

Re: The Ying and Yang of Public and Private Markets

Ted Murphy — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:38:56 -0000

Thank you for an insightful view of private financing right now.

I think it remains to be seen how financial woes impact underlying fundamentals here on the Internet. If the 2000 and 2001 experience acts as a guide, I would expect to see deep cuts in online advertising and partnership revenues. E-commerce revenues, however, may sail through relatively unscathed. I note that Amazon's revenues in 2001 vs 2000 were up +13%, while Yahoo's revenues were down -35%.

Re: Bailouts, Nationalism and Diplomacy

Ted Murphy — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:22:38 -0000

I'm calling you namby pamby because you believe you can look beyond your tribe and your country to find your fellow prisoners. That may be unfair. You may be so wealthy and self-reliant that you actually can look beyond your tribe and country to find the people that have the biggest impact on your well-being. In my opinion, 95% of americans, and 99% of non-americans, do not have that luxury.

Re: Bailouts, Nationalism and Diplomacy

Ted Murphy — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:24:09 -0000

Oh man, I can't believe this post. You point out that economic events will naturally result in increased military spending and posturing from Russia and China -- a brilliant focus, one that I have not heard before -- and then you devolve into some kind of namby pamby malarky about helping each other because the US is powerless to act unilaterally. I am going to puke.

Here's a news flash: we are not all in this thing together. We are all in this thing for ourselves, our tribes and our countries. Get it? Its not our leaders' fault if they act in the best interests of their countries. That is their job, not their aberration. I'm going to puke because I'm beginning to think we may be out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Re: Capital Efficiency Finds It's Moment

Ted Murphy — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:42:14 -0000

I think its a very healthy thing. Its making the other elements that a VC can offer -- connections, exposure, etc -- even more important to the startup.

Re: Capital Efficiency Finds It's Moment

Ted Murphy — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:06:53 -0000

That was actually a disappointing read -- I agree with your interpretation of the article, but I'm not sure the author really laser-beamed in on it. He was talking about all these institutions that were "too big to fail" were simply "too big." Then he tossed off HUD as a prime example of whale flesh.

If the US government were serious about helping our country, they would focus on cutting costs within their own shop. They should come up with a plan to lower headcount. Hey, I'll vote for a reduced military if it is matched by a smaller domestic footprint. Saying "it ain't going to happen" doesn't cut it. If our financing costs on $9T in outstanding federal debt start to go up, we'll need to make the tough choices.

Re: My Mental Rorschach

Ted Murphy — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:49:53 -0000

It sounds like an excellent school. Its amazing to me how hard it is to be a good teacher. Kind of like how hard it is to be a good chef at a restaurant. Its way more difficult than people appreciate.

Re: What To Look For Next

Ted Murphy — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:17:57 -0000

It sounds like the long-term opportunities will be over in China and India, if the analogy to the 1873 panic holds true (ie Europe then is US now, US then is Asia now). Should we include Brazil and Russia? Certainly Brazil.

Also, from the 1873 analogy, one would be better off not dumping a bunch of capital into US-focused businesses. That panic initiated a four year economic downturn that, among other things, brought the terms bum and tramp into our lexicon -- terms coined for former soldiers who were unemployed.

Re: What To Look For Next

Ted Murphy — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:02:40 -0000

Regarding Microsoft's outstanding employee-held options -- they had, as of 6/30/08, 517 mm ($12.9 billion) in vested and unvested employee options and employee-held SPSAs. That's about 6% of outstanding common shares.

That's according to their 2008 10k.

Re: Where and How am I Investing in Early-Stage Today?

Ted Murphy — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:54:35 -0000

Well, my new company hits on all of these metrics. The only thing you haven't mentioned is a barrier to entry. I expect my new market to be massive, and the competitors to swamp us. I'm just hoping we can be aggressive enough to keep a small piece of the pie. Actually, that's the only rationale I can see for bringing in outside investors. They would help us in terms of contacts and stability more than financing.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/10/free-vs-paid.html

Ted Murphy — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:17:38 -0000

You're 100% right -- the youth focused web sites are beating the path. They have dedicated, loyal users and they are figuring out how to monetize them. My question -- how many kids would pay for a one-on-one interaction with Barney? Enough to fill Radio City Music Hall, as a I know from experience.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/10/free-vs-paid.html

Ted Murphy — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:01:51 -0000

As a startup, you need a CEO and/or CMO who can sell into the big guys. And it takes a year. The Enterprise will first try to replicate the product internally. Then they they will try to get IBM and AT&T to replicate the product (at your cost point). If they all fail, you'll have a shot. Simple.