Disqus - Friends of Solwoldjr

Re: Test

trojanhorse — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:57:58 -0000

I think that BK is the unfortunate destiny of the US auto manufacturers. Unfortunate because Great Depression II would become reality. Congress will sit on their hands.

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 07:43:34 -0000

Dude, you're risking too much on any given trade. As always, some trades will be right and some will be wrong. There's no logical reason to turn a double into 50% loss.

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 07:54:21 -0000

The XLF continually disappoints and is making new lows - pressured by new lows in C and BAC. This is the mother's milk sector and was warning us in earnest back in the spring of 2007 of underlying weaknesses in the market structure. The S&P500 was making new highs without the participation of the Financials. The top for the XLF was in May 2007, followed by the DOW & the S&P in October 2007, just over 1 quarter later.
I don't know if it goes to doughnut as Attila suggests but it is logical to think that as long as this sector is not forming a stabilization pattern and therefore the beginning of a rebound, that there is little chance that we will experience rebounds that stick in the other sectors. We saw a reversal on November 13th intra day, but those gains were erased and the XLF is now making new lows.
The targets for the XLF Etf are hard to pinpoint but a landing area of 10/10 ½ is possible. We know that the September correction formed a positive divergence with the trend indicator, so therefore this type of configuration announces that this is the final down leg of the entire correction that started in May 2007.
We wait for a valid signal with follow through.

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:10:05 -0000

Think of this bounce here as the last hill on the mountain before the train makes it over the top. You know what happens after the train clears the hill and starts rolling down the other side, I'm sure.

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:14:51 -0000

The conductor has the best view, passengers take in the scenery..

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:23:57 -0000

Well the obvious is the move from the low today does not have any characteristics of a reversal, only correction. Let us see the view while testing the lows for clarity.

Re: Into the oblivion...

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:34:42 -0000

How many people vote QID hits tripple digits shortly?

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:48:22 -0000

Drop? Yes. 200 handles = 25% haircut. Expensive even for John Edwards.

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:55:28 -0000

Atilla, you have inside scoop on multiple hedgie liqs here and now?

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:58:36 -0000

Saw that post and mentally filed it. You're a great trader and have a kind soul.

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:30:34 -0000

DIG to 18 perhaps?

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:17:21 -0000

Visibility to me appears like we get a nice bounce from here before continuing the slide. That's what I'm seeing - but there's the chance I am boarding a bus that is leaving at midnight with no moon and heading towards a bridge that has been blown.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:33:10 -0000

J-boy, I will say that I appreciate your post in the spirit it was intended. However, this is a trading blog - a working art of never ending study and analysis that includes pricing, trending, volume, momentum, historical scenarios, and sentiment - all wrapped in a moment of time and used as a basis to position oneself for a profitable trade.
A man's work provides fulfillment in various ways, one of which is a financially positive outcome. Smart people observe and try to emulate other people and companies that demonstrate success. It is no more complicated than that. If Atilla did not fit the profile of repeated market savvy, the interest would dissipate.
There is nothing immoral or unethical below the surface that I can interpret. Most are here to learn and share. Some to undermine the purpose. As far as I can tell, this place is an idea center. Individual emotions/motivations that may be carried into and beyond a trade are too diverse, complicated, and unproductive for discussion.

Re: long ES @ 746

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:55:38 -0000

To be exact, Atilla said 20-30 handles only.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:57:05 -0000

Atilla said 20-30 handles only.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:06:55 -0000

QID tripple digits.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:11:18 -0000

Easy come easy go....guess tripple digits was too much to bear.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:45:47 -0000

Look, as bad as the economy is, people will still have jobs, companies will continue to produce, and consumers will continue to buy. Rinsing the excess is a painful, torturous experience but eventually the excess is shored up.
We're in no man's land right now. There is nothing to compare this to, not even the 30's. Markets, trading snstuments, and information is not comparible. Americas global importance is also different than other historical times with what appears to be the pendulum swinging back now.
You're watching the most industrialized and technologically advanced country in the world peak out. It is what happens to all powers eventually - Rome, Russia, Germany.. It does not mean we won't return to slow sustainable growth, innovation, and profitability. However, this is a monumentous event taking place with changing fundamentals.
I don't believe anybody knows our destiny, but I appreciate Atilla's approach to trading - responding to what the market tells you, not what you already know or expect.

Re: Reflecting on what got the markets to this point

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:05:30 -0000

Looking for a major blast higher about now.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:53:56 -0000

I like S&P to 774/5 today. Then? Market will let us know. We could get an end of day like last Friday will everybody bailing in last hour.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:58:47 -0000

And 1 more thing to remember for today - next week is T-giving and volume will be light, take days off. Therefore, folks could start the "last hour" of trading a little early today...jump on the weekend.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 13:05:14 -0000

A drop to SPX 753 is OK. Much below that??? Run imho.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 13:58:15 -0000

I was hoping for 774 today - it would have to go for it now. However, with next week being a holiday week and seeing what I saw last Friday, I'm not sticking around. She's ready to roll over again without a good fight.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:00:09 -0000

Another clue was Tech leading the way.

Re: Sold ES @ 766

trojanhorse — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:02:46 -0000

the big surprise would be for the last hour to do a reverse of what it did last Friday - Dow climbing 400, SPX 50, Naz 70+ all in the final hour. Nobody is expecting that.