Disqus - Latest Comments for SoberLook

Re: Sober Look: US consumer is the last defense against strong dollar drag on the economy

SoberLook — Fri, 05 Feb 2016 14:39:39 -0000

Yes, the Financial Obligations Ratio (FOR) includes rent. That's why I use FOR rather than the Debt Service Payments ratio.

Re: Sober Look: A contrarian perspective on the short euro trade

SoberLook — Tue, 01 Dec 2015 15:03:18 -0000

Apologies for the error. All fixed.

Re: Sober Look: Beijing may question the yuan peg as the Fed prepares for liftoff

SoberLook — Tue, 11 Aug 2015 15:49:00 -0000

Thanks!

Re: Sober Look: US skills gap becoming more acute

SoberLook — Fri, 19 Jun 2015 17:34:35 -0000

Have you ever been to a modern electronics manufacturing plant? The reason iPhones can't be manufactured in the US is the lack of skilled labor - not labor costs.

Re: Sober Look: Worsening rental crisis in the United States

SoberLook — Mon, 08 Jun 2015 00:30:08 -0000

That's already happening. There is a whole RV movement out there.

Re: Sober Look: An update on Brazil's flagging economy

SoberLook — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 01:46:48 -0000

great point!

Re: Sober Look: Improvements in the euro area credit conditions should not be ignored

SoberLook — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 23:00:42 -0000

Thanks. Very helpful writeup

Re: Sober Look: Greece's fight against "fiscal waterboarding" is turning ugly for the private sector

SoberLook — Thu, 29 Jan 2015 23:41:43 -0000

Kostas - thanks for the comments - very helpful!

Re: Sober Look: ECB exploring QE options

SoberLook — Wed, 14 Jan 2015 10:16:12 -0000

Agreed, but the ECB simply has no other options

Re: Sober Look: As real estate investing fades, the Chinese jump into stocks

SoberLook — Sun, 04 Jan 2015 22:53:42 -0000

see https://twitter.com/vikramr...

Re: Sober Look: The US student loan problem - facts, charts, thoughts

SoberLook — Thu, 30 Oct 2014 16:58:50 -0000

Anthony - when you talk about "loan consumer protection", who are you protecting against? The lender is the federal government.

Re: Sober Look: Failure of Guidance on Leveraged Lending resembles the War on Drugs

SoberLook — Wed, 01 Oct 2014 02:10:28 -0000

John - would you mind if I post your comment as a guest post?

Regards
Walter

SoberLook.com

Re: Sober Look: Tight rental market holding back household formation

SoberLook — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 14:40:49 -0000

Try getting an affordable apartment in Oklahoma CIty, Dallas, Atlanta. Expensive with big deposits upfront.

Re: Sober Look: Rising investor concerns around China's slowing property markets

SoberLook — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 23:49:07 -0000

Not difficult. Tonight I spoke to a friend in Beijing and he is certain that if need be the central government will purchase some of the excess supply. This is not the US.

Re: Sober Look: A stream of poor economic reports from the Eurozone may be more than just the "Putin factor"

SoberLook — Fri, 15 Aug 2014 16:14:59 -0000

I've been struggling trying to figure out what's going on with this. Much of the buying has been from banks. The flood of capital from Russia into EU banks could account for this as wealthy Russians try to park their money for 2-3 years in a safe place to weather the storm.

Thanks for your support on the Daily Shot!

Re: Sober Look: What has been supporting gold prices

SoberLook — Fri, 15 Aug 2014 16:06:11 -0000

Relentless demand for fixed income securities due to "eternal" zero-rate policy driving down real yields?

Re: Sober Look: Argentina default Q&A

SoberLook — Fri, 15 Aug 2014 15:00:55 -0000

"vulture hedge fund"? Where do you come up with this nonsense? It's a ruling under NY law. The ultimate holdouts are US pensions who provided the capital to buy these bonds.

Re: Sober Look: Argentina default Q&A

SoberLook — Fri, 15 Aug 2014 14:58:27 -0000

Not my argument. It was made by JPMorgan's attorneys who looked at the case. You obviously understand this case better than they do.

Re: Sober Look: Credit card debt growth exceeds wage growth in the US

SoberLook — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 18:12:30 -0000

Your "sample" of people you know is too small...

Re: Sober Look: Expect higher treasury yields in second half of the year

SoberLook — Fri, 01 Aug 2014 11:02:25 -0000

Look at the dates on the chart. Second half in 2014 a forecast. Not sure how you can "overlay" yields on top of a forecast. As far as European yields, real yields (as opposed to nominal) in the Eurozone are not much lower than in the US.

Re: Sober Look: The current ECB programs create a QE-like environment, setting up for moral hazards

SoberLook — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 11:22:53 -0000

Thanks for your support!

Re: Sober Look: The current ECB programs create a QE-like environment, setting up for moral hazards

SoberLook — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 00:01:37 -0000

This is the actual cumulative monthly government deficit (not estimate). Deficits are seasonal and 2014 is tracking 2013 and 2012. No real improvement.

Re: Sober Look: More clarity from FOMC on the mechanics of liftoff

SoberLook — Mon, 14 Jul 2014 10:02:18 -0000

Agreed.

Re: Sober Look: More clarity from FOMC on the mechanics of liftoff

SoberLook — Mon, 14 Jul 2014 10:00:55 -0000

Makes no difference to the $3 trillion repo market.

Re: Sober Look: Window dressing with Fed's reverse repo program

SoberLook — Sun, 06 Jul 2014 11:46:52 -0000

It's been going on for decades in the unsecured lending markets. Rather than lending to other banks, many banks would buy treasury bills over the year-end. My guess is it will be going on for decades to come.