Disqus - Latest Comments for RyanJ

Re: How Obama finally broke free of Clinton and McCain

RyanJ — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 15:52:17 -0000

I think the only way to get back to the blog is to go to blog.hubdub.com I don't think we have a link to the blog on the main page. My avatar is just really a joke, I love politics but sometimes it just gets on my nerves!

The sample on Hubdub is very small and is I'd imagine full of more lefties than righties. The internet always seems to attract more liberals than conservatives. For example you have sites like redstate and then you have the juggernaut Huffington Post.

The thing is that users on Hubdub whatever their biases are usually in it to win it. So if it looked likely that McCain was gonna get elected the market would shift his way. There is a incentive to bet correctly, H$ and right now it seems Obama has the advantage and the markets are showcasing it. When your're polled you don't have any real incentives to be right.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

Re: How Obama finally broke free of Clinton and McCain

RyanJ — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 15:40:57 -0000

Hi Adam,

The "merciless attack" I'm expecting to come won't be a direct salvo from McCain but from the 527's although McCain may not endorse their actions I believe that he will benefit from their actions. And as of yet I haven't really seen high intensity 527 attacks on Obama, or vice versa.

It will be harder for very negative campaigning to work this year. If you've watched Obama's speeches he always states how McCain is a "All American Hero," and when you watch McCain's speeches he gives Obama credit for being the first African American candidate. They can't attack each other really negatively because your going to have everyone taking everything out of context. So there will be a reliance on third party negative attacks that aren't officially attached to either campaigns.

Looking at the graph it still seems that McCain's price is slowly decreasing just not at a high rate. But, besides this Obama's now flattening out. From this I can possibly predict that McCain's slow downturn will level off as Obama's upturn levels off. The market won't really tighten but it may stay near the same levels.

I think the tightening of the market really depends on when McCain and Obama start getting gritty. It's not something I can give a description of, but I think we'll know it when we see it. Right now, although were in the general election it looks like both candidates aren't fighting each other a much as they are fighting for Clinton supporters. Once that's subsided I imagine the markets will tighten up.

Regards,

Ryan

Re: How Obama finally broke free of Clinton and McCain

RyanJ — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 23:09:54 -0000

Hmm... I'm a bit confused? Exactly who does Obama owe? If your talking about the Dem. leadership then of course I agree seeing as the Dem's leadership would've been expected to go with the Clinton's seeing as Bill is seen as the Reagan of the Dem's. In the end though they went with Obama probably because of how Obama played the change card.

Regards,
Ryan (The Author)